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Do you think there will be a Deal or No Deal?

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  • Poll closed .
Jippy said:
I had a curious conversation with my cleaner yesterday, while working from home- she was complaining that her disability payments for her autistic son were cut cos he was not considered 'disabled enough' a few years ago and Kids Company funded his therapy- she was scathing about Cameron and his role in the charity's demise. Having only read the media coverage of it, it was interesting to hear a different perspective.
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Not sure how representative this is since I only read the Guardian (and only online) but that's pretty much the line they've been pushing for 5+ years: Cameron used his disable son as a prop and then cut disability and the privatised evaluators are super-strict and arbitrary.
 
Nissan To expand car plant in Sunderland after talks with the Govt.
God knows what promises it was given.
 
With the business secretary saying companies like Nissan will have an input in negotiations, the government must be moving mountains to stop companies pulling out.
 
Adisa said:
With the business secretary saying companies like Nissan will have an input in negotiations, the government must be moving mountains to stop companies pulling out.
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The employment of those thousands and the local industrial base is very important. The Government does have it in its power to offer a more beneficial tax arrangement, should we have to leave the single market and negotiate a new European trade deal.
 
Classical Mechanic said:
No talk of the UK economy performing better than predicted?

https://www.theguardian.com/uk
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The ONS revises these figures by an average of 0.7 pp (since 1991). The preliminary estimates for 2008 were growth in the first two quarters, and a contraction in the third. This meant that the discussion in October was "will the UK enter a recession" when we had already been in recession since Q2.

I'm not saying the figures are completely worthless, but they should be published with the average error. e.g. UK economy grew by 0.5% (±0.7) in the last quarter
 
Despite the "good news" today for the UK
"The expansion of the services sector helped to offset the steepest fall in construction since the third quarter of 2012, with a slide in new housebuilding dragging the entire building industry down 1.4% between July and September.

Manufacturing dropped by 1% in the third quarter, while production fell 0.4% and agriculture slipped by 0.7%."

The pound and the FTSE250 have both fallen again today

Only another 4/5 months to the trigger
 
UK set to become the fastest growing economy in the G7 according to the BBC.


We are all doomed I tell you, doomed.
 
Anyone trying to gloat about the economy doing better than expected is just proving their economic ignorance.

Nissan gave been promised subsidies or soft Brexit. The former is ridiculous, the latter anything but taking back control.

As for the economy, in dollars it's already down 20% and most sectors have been reported to be contracting, except for the debt-fueled services sector. All this feels like the top of hill to me and it's only down from here.
 
Nick 0208 Ldn said:
The employment of those thousands and the local industrial base is very important. The Government does have it in its power to offer a more beneficial tax arrangement, should we have to leave the single market and negotiate a new European trade deal.
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Im confused, why would we have to cut taxes to keep firms in this new utopia?
 
Rightnr said:
Anyone trying to gloat about the economy doing better than expected is just proving their economic ignorance.

Nissan gave been promised subsidies or soft Brexit. The former is ridiculous, the latter anything but taking back control.

As for the economy, in dollars it's already down 20% and most sectors have been reported to be contracting, except for the debt-fueled services sector. All this feels like the top of hill to me and it's only down from here.
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If you won the lottery you'd find only dowsides
 
Rightnr said:
Anyone trying to gloat about the economy doing better than expected is just proving their economic ignorance.

Nissan gave been promised subsidies or soft Brexit. The former is ridiculous, the latter anything but taking back control.

As for the economy, in dollars it's already down 20% and most sectors have been reported to be contracting, except for the debt-fueled services sector. All this feels like the top of hill to me and it's only down from here.
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Nissan have been promised something, what could it be, have a feeling that Brexiteers are not going to be happy bunnies.
I don't think it was May's convincing argument that they are going to try for the best deal.

Just as well the UK are self-sufficient so they don't have to import the materials necessary to build the cars
 
If I've got the story right, growth is actually down when compared to the previous quarter, from 0.7% to 0.5%. It was predicted to be worse though, down to 0.3 or even 0.1%.
 
jackofalltrades said:
If I've got the story right, growth is actually down when compared to the previous quarter, from 0.7% to 0.5%. It was predicted to be worse though, down to 0.3 or even 0.1%.
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It was actually predicted that a Brexit vote would lead to an immediate recession.
 
jackofalltrades said:
If I've got the story right, growth is actually down when compared to the previous quarter, from 0.7% to 0.5%. It was predicted to be worse though, down to 0.3 or even 0.1%.
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The 0.1% was predicted by some because they thought the UK would trigger Brexit soon after the referendum as they thought Brexit had a plan. Then it was predicted 0.3% when they realised Brexit didn't have a plan and wouldn't trigger it for some considerable time. The service sector saved the GDP for Q3. With supposedly better figures than expected you would think the pound and the FTSE would have improved, they both dropped.

When and if the UK finally do trigger Article 50 then there will be another hit and when they leave another one.

On the other hand the tooth fairy really does exist.
 
Sometimes I get the impression the some people actually want to see the whole EU and Euro Project collapse, presumably on the understanding that the UK would only be affected in a positive way. There to pick up the pieces and continue the trajectory towards prosperity.
 
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How is that state aid I don't know. I mean this surely breaches WTO and EU rules if they ever have to come good on the promise.

The people that voted Brexit will now rely on others to keep them in a job. What irony.
 
Stanley Road said:
If you won the lottery you'd find only dowsides
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It's all downside with the Nissan deal though, isn't it? It's presumably coming at some sort of cost to the UK that wouldn't have been necessary without Brexit. It's just less of a downside than it could have been.

Hardly akin to winning the lottery. More like getting mugged without getting beaten up too.
 
sullydnl said:
It's all downside with the Nissan deal though, isn't it? It's presumably coming at some sort of cost to the UK that wouldn't have been necessary without Brexit. It's just less of a downside than it could have been.
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A short-term commitment, yes, but one which is good for the economy long term.

On the one hand, people fear of our post-Brexit circumstances; on the other, they would tie our hands behind our back if we attempt to ease the nation's way.
 
Rightnr said:
How is that state aid I don't know. I mean this surely breaches WTO and EU rules if they ever have to come good on the promise.

The people that voted Brexit will now rely on others to keep them in a job. What irony.
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My guess is that if the EU is stupid enough to demand tariffs on UK car sales into the EU then the UK will reciprocate and give the money raised on the imported EU cars as an offset to the increased costs to Nissan and others by whatever method. Its the right thing to do and the EU can't stop it because we won't be part of the EU anymore.

On the bolded point I'd just like to say that there are a lot of very ignorant people who would like to damn the brexit voting areas and laugh at their anticipated future demise but the idea that brexit is a northern, stupid, racist and easily lead / lied to underclass is somewhat undermined by Milton Keynes for example voting Brexit. Is Milton an ex-industrial heart land with closed down mines, steel works and a former heavy engineering wasteland fit now only for fracking?

If the remoaners want to come into the thread and cite every possible negative slant on every emerging statistic, which look back in this thread and verify they did, as proof of the economic doom of the leave vote, then the remarkable fact that those same indicators are now showing the UK to be growing faster than predicted and growing faster than the countries who are set to remain in the EU can't be flippantly dismissed.

Those posters should have some integrity and admit it is not anywhere near as bad as they said it would be post a leave vote and let the rest play out as it will.
 
Don't Kill Bill said:
My guess is that if the EU is stupid enough to demand tariffs on UK car sales into the EU then the UK will reciprocate and give the money raised on the imported EU cars as an offset to the increased costs to Nissan and others by whatever method. Its the right thing to do and the EU can't stop it because we won't be part of the EU anymore.

On the bolded point I'd just like to say that there are a lot of very ignorant people who would like to damn the brexit voting areas and laugh at their anticipated future demise but the idea that brexit is a northern, stupid, racist and easily lead / lied to underclass is somewhat undermined by Milton Keynes for example voting Brexit. Is Milton an ex-industrial heart land with closed down mines, steel works and a former heavy engineering wasteland fit now only for fracking?

If the remoaners want to come into the thread and cite every possible negative slant on every emerging statistic, which look back in this thread and verify they did, as proof of the economic doom of the leave vote, then the remarkable fact that those same indicators are now showing the UK to be growing faster than predicted and growing faster than the countries who are set to remain in the EU can't be flippantly dismissed.

Those posters should have some integrity and admit it is not anywhere near as bad as they said it would be post a leave vote and let the rest play out as it will.
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You are still in the eu
 
Stanley Road said:
His post doesn't suggest otherwise.
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Well wait until the UK actually leaves the EU first. Currently the UK is enjoying the best of both worlds. Its within the EU so its enjoys the benefits of its integrated system (from manifucturing to legistration right to politics (ex trade deals) but can speak freely about leaving. However what will happens once the market of entire continent are shut down, the trade deals are lost and tariffs will be introduced for each and every spare part that move from the continent to the UK?. Hence why even David Davis (ie that idiot who thinks that you can make deals with individual EU countries) is now acknowledging that leaving the single market without a sound deal with the EU first will be crazy.
 
The bad news already is prices are rising, wage growth is slowing and unemployment is up. The volume of retail sales was flat in September versus August. The fall in the pound has already generated a pick-up in inflation. The consumer prices index was up from 0.6% to 1% in the latest ONS release and is expected to trend steadily higher soon. This is especially bad news for workers whose real wages are still about 7% lower than they were at the pre-recession peak in 2007.

...

The data shows from the latest single month estimate, which is what every other major country in the world publishes, that unemployment rose 144,000 between July and August. This may be too high, given that these monthly numbers are unstable. If you average the months together as the ONS does, then it is true that unemployment jumped by 10,000, from 1,646,000 in March-May to 1,656,000 in June-August.

But that doesn’t seem the right comparator. If you compare the rolling quarter of May to July with June to August, which seems much more sensible, the rise is actually a really worrying – and more believable – 25,000. Whether the true rise in unemployment is 10,000; 25,000 or 144,000 the rise is bad news of course, as unemployment hurts. This is surely the lull ahead of an oncoming Brexit tsunami.
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https://www.theguardian.com/busines...e-tsunami-economists-on-the-brexit-watch-data


Naturally, it will be those at the bottom who will be punished the hardest by the effects of Brexit.
 
devilish said:
Well wait until the UK actually leaves the EU first. Currently the UK is enjoying the best of both worlds. Its within the EU so its enjoys the benefits of its integrated system (from manifucturing to legistration right to politics (ex trade deals) but can speak freely about leaving. However what will happens once the market of entire continent are shut down, the trade deals are lost and tariffs will be introduced for each and every spare part that move from the continent to the UK?. Hence why even David Davis (ie that idiot who thinks that you can make deals with individual EU countries) is now acknowledging that leaving the single market without a sound deal with the EU first will be crazy.
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And once they leave lets say there is a downturn and then things improve, where will you move your goalposts to then? You'd think a stagnant EU economy would bend over backwards to deal with a growing UK economy.
 
Stanley Road said:
And once they leave lets say there is a downturn and then things improve, where will you move your goalposts to then? You'd think a stagnant EU economy would bend over backwards to deal with a growing UK economy.
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Why doesn't the EU just bend over backwards to deal with the even larger and faster-growing Chinese market, then?

There isn't a massive difference between EU and UK GDP growth and a lot of the UK's GDP growth is because of normalised regulations because the UK is in the Single Market right now (by lowering barriers).

The EU isn't going to bend over backwards to deal with the UK. If they were, we may as well trigger Article 50 right now and watch them wet themselves trying to get a good deal. If they were, they would be offering us sweeteners and pre-Article 50 negotiations.
 
Stanley Road said:
And once they leave lets say there is a downturn and then things improve, where will you move your goalposts to then? You'd think a stagnant EU economy would bend over backwards to deal with a growing UK economy.
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I don't mind saying that I was wrong. I've been there, I've said that. We wouldn't be here for 14-15 long years if we weren't able to do that Stan.

And no Europe will not bend over backwards to anybody. It didn't bend over backwards to the 1st-2nd biggest economy in the world. It won't do it with the Brits. The ones hesitating on a hard Brexit isn't the EU but your good selves. The EU cant wait to start the dances
 
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