Paul the Wolf
Former Score Predictions Comp Organiser (now out)
First part about China, second part about Brexit.
This person is in charge of trade.
Try to stop laughing and remain sane.
The whole world are part of trading blocs with their near neighbours - except the UK and a few nutjobs. It makes trade easier. You are obsessed with the "social contract" which is nothing to do with anyone outside the UK.
How are the Uk going to trade in order to stop going bust is surely a more pressing subject.
It's not the past , it's the future.
Yes I understand that.
I have heard many people saying to me that they were fed up of being told what to do by Brussels.
And yes of course the deed has been done. And will not be undone during my lifetime I suspect. That is very clear for many reasons.
That being the case, as Paul says, trading with the EU will become progressively more difficult. Nevertheless, there is no obvious substitute to the lost EU trade.
Unless... UK goods and services prove to be so overwhelmingly attractive that foreign buyers are prepared to pay the price of buying from the UK.
That has to be the way forward. And not just government bullshit words. But innovation and increased focus on design and excellence of quality will always be the key to growth.
And that is very much down to us.
So I use another motoring example. Motor racing, especially F1. All of the most successful teams are based in England. And while it is the Austrian or German national anthems, when Red Bull or Mercedes win, those teams are essentially British, including the R&D and the powertrains. There is no God given right. It is down to one thing. Being the very best.
Yes I understand that.
I have heard many people saying to me that they were fed up of being told what to do by Brussels.
And yes of course the deed has been done. And will not be undone during my lifetime I suspect. That is very clear for many reasons.
That being the case, as Paul says, trading with the EU will become progressively more difficult. Nevertheless, there is no obvious substitute to the lost EU trade.
Unless... UK goods and services prove to be so overwhelmingly attractive that foreign buyers are prepared to pay the price of buying from the UK.
That has to be the way forward. And not just government bullshit words. But innovation and increased focus on design and excellence of quality will always be the key to growth.
And that is very much down to us.
So I use another motoring example. Motor racing, especially F1. All of the most successful teams are based in England. And while it is the Austrian or German national anthems, when Red Bull or Mercedes win, those teams are essentially British, including the R&D and the powertrains. There is no God given right. It is down to one thing. Being the very best.
Not for those outside the loop, the world changes (migration is a big driver)are going to need a 'fresh look' for all trading cartels, including any the UK may sign up with, near neighbours or not.
The social contract will be a determinant in how we seek to trade, in particularly externally, so it will affect whoever we seek to trade with. It will need the backing/understanding of the public to operate in whatever manner the Government suggests, as much as anything to prevent another Brexit type situation occurring where the majority of the public had no idea how things (like Trade) worked. This time most of the public, at least the majority who keep the wheels turning, need to know what is happening to prevent making future mistakes... 'those who learn nothing from history are bound to make the same mistakes"... or something like that!
How we are going to trade in the future is the 'biggy', we will standstill for a while, but won't go bust; however, everything almost has to be re-orientated, re-engineered in some cases, affecting every part of the UK and including constitutional issues We now have to put ourselves under the microscope at every level. Yes, free ports maybe a step we need too consider, tax take, as well as trade rules revamped, monetary system, (heaven forbid some will say ) but do we jettison the pound sterling after all? We change the things we can change if it improves the economy, find ways around the things we can't change... and lets face it the whole world is going to be doing very much the same thing because of climate change, if nothing else.
That is the future Paul.
The majority of the public have no idea how trade works and never will - that's how you voted yourself into this mess. If they knew they would not have even considered it.
You're not standing still, you're going down the drain, which will accelerate in the next few years.
If you go down the freeports route you may as well shut up shop now.
The trade ministers you've had over the past few years have no idea how trade works either. There's the current Trade Minister abovein the video - you'd cry if you understood what she doesn't understand.
As I said before , I can't get through to you. The only way is the hard way.
Only too well Paul, but all your standing on the sidelines shouting that we are all going to hell in a handcart, doesn't achieve anything does it.
I believe with a thumping majority Starmer and Labour can repeat what the post WW2 labour government did and introduce measures (Education and NHS Acts) that change the lives of millions of ordinary folk, this time via something like a social contract... we shall see, he has to get the majority first!
On the motor example you are right partially. Is only like that because historical reasons and ecosystem due to these historical reasons including that Red bull and Mercedes installations and engineers were inherited because they bought UK teams.
The ecosystem is unique and impossible to replicate but it comes from many decades ago
A good ecosystem is the EU also
Motorsport was just an example of engineering technical excellence. And if it was just down to historical reasons, which is a small reason, why would Mercedes have transferred not just the car development from Germany which it was when Michael Schumacher drove for them, but the whole engine and power train to England.
And F1 is hardly a static technology. And global companies like BAE Systems and a notable number of others have partnered with a range of English F1 teams like Williams. What F1 teams do is highly transferrable.
Anyway, you must think what you like.
Do you get a fiver every time you say social contract ? But to do that you need money (from trade / taxes or borrowing).
Say he gets elected next year, is he going on an expedition to see if he can find some more countries, as yet undiscovered, to sell British products to. Do we know what these products are? Meanwhile the rest of the world carries on trading with each other as before. Everyone's in the loop except the UK, Belarus (helped by Russia), North Korea (helped by China). Anyone else not in a trading bloc?
I dont know why you are so salty with your last sentence. Redbull and mercedes purchased and inherited installations and enginneers from brittish teams, so they stayed where they already were. The vast fields since WWII and the supply chain that had been created since decades creating the ecosystem it cant be replicated easily and if you are already there (brawn to mercedes, jaguar to red bull), why move. Ask redbull to easily transferr to austria, find the free flat land as easy as you say
I am not saying that there is no excellence in UK, but there are some preconditions that are historical and advantages that are very difficult to replicate
Anyway, you must think what you like
Come on. This is getting a bit silly now isn't it. Let's keep things in proportion.
I regret the UK leaving the EU as much as anyone. But to compare the UK with the likes of North Korea is a bit extreme.
And to use your words.... the world carries on trading as before.
You don't have to be in a trading block to trade do you ?
Yes it makes it easier.
But it is not mandatory is it?
Happy to be corrected. Because I am the first to admit that I do not understand the intracies of international trade any more than others understand how jet engines work. But you don't need to understand that just to be able to fly.
No that was in response to Matic saying that 'cartels' as he calls them is old hat. There are trade blocs throughout the world both political and trade orientated, mainly both. There are very few countries who are not members of one - those three I listed.
The world carries on trading but the Uk are making it as difficult as possible for itself and as said thousands of times on here, the more barriers you put up, the less trade you will do. I don't know if Matic thinks the EU is the only trading bloc.
Take just today, there's the Uk government celebrating BMW not removing the Mini for the time being from UK production and Stellantis wanting the EU/UK trade agreement regarding tariffs renegotiated.
Neither would have been necessary without Brexit.
It is so difficult to get across how serious the position is of the UK, because everyone still thinks it's Project Fear.
Certainly not project fear. The reality of what has been done is catastrophic. And it sends chills down my old spine. But life has to go on and we have to try to carve out some kind of future. There are things the UK is very good at. If we can offer the best at the right price at the right time then they will sell. We are just going to have to try a lot harder than before.
Life has to go on but why does the UK have to carry on down this dead end road. It's only two years and eight months since the transition period ended, seems much longer, the tap that was dripping is gradually running more strongly and all the protections that have limited the damage will be gone in a few years.
I really have no idea where the UK thinks it's heading.
The Tories have seriously messed up. Should be end of the torture when they get voted out. A chance for a different direction but no, it's going to carry on down the same route, because someone who has no idea what he's doing thinks he can do the same thing better. Can't find the word. Unbelievable.
Its because it would be undemocratic to change our minds and Brexin, for some reason.
I mean it wouldn't be anymore undemocratic than any other policy that goes through parliament without a public vote, which includes things like whether or not we drop bombs on places, or more recently, who the prime minister of the country should be, but the narrative has been set.
There has been nobody strong enough to oppose it. The opposition are too scared or maybe they believe in Brexit too.
At some point there will be opposition. Just a question of how long it takes for someone with some sense and strength of character.
Quite clearly 99% of the MPs of both sides didn't know either and still don't. Idiots leading idiots.
Certainly too scared.
I mean can you imagine the headlines in the Daily Mail or Express or even the Sun. They would absolutely love it if Labour even hinted at closer ties with the EU. It would consign Labour to a minority party status for many years and most likely see Boris back in power.
And therein lies the problem. Whatever Starmer thinks, he can not think it in public.
Do you get a fiver every time you say social contract ? But to do that you need money (from trade / taxes or borrowing).
Say he gets elected next year, is he going on an expedition to see if he can find some more countries, as yet undiscovered, to sell British products to. Do we know what these products are? Meanwhile the rest of the world carries on trading with each other as before. Everyone's in the loop except the UK, Belarus (helped by Russia), North Korea (helped by China). Anyone else not in a trading bloc?
If nobody ever bucks the trend of shivering in their skin because of the press, then nothing will ever change. It's not just now, it's the whole way through from the beginning of the Brexit in 2015.
At the start of that clip with Barry Gardiner, he's talking about Starmer, hopeless regarding Brexit from a to z.
There had to be someone who insisted and even now insisting on why Brexit is a catastrophic mistake. The only person who really said anything was Ian Blackford of the SNP but he had no power and was easily ignored.
It wouldn't surprise me that if Starmer gets elected and as the economy get worse under him, the Tories regroup with a fresh set of faces in opposition and start becoming the party who wants to rejoin; stranger things have happened.
I wish I did!
I've only referred to a Social Contract (ching!!!) because I assume something of the sort will be needed by Labour to take the majority of the populace with him, maybe Starmer will call it something else?
The fact remains that we are in this position because governments of the past have lied to the people, or at least withheld the truth, from those who keep the country going, Brexit was only one example from Tories, the WMD was the last Labour untruth in Blair's day. If, and I keep making this stipulation, Starmer gets anywhere near the majority Boris had last time, then he will be in a unique position, one that Labour has never really been in, at least within living memory.
As important as trade is, for the economy to grow, everybody has to be invested and know what to expect, especially with the world facing changes of massive proportions, via climate, migration, water supplies and energy issues. Hence the new government will have to look at a wide range of issues not just trade. Of course trade will be vital and Starmers often mentioned slogan of making brexit work (when in fact it already has and the UK is outside the EU) is in my opinion just a sop, repeated parrot-fashion it means nothing, I for one would wish he would stop referring to brexit as we are not going back. We are and continue to be in a post-brexit situation, that means massive adjustments in what we grow, invent, design, produce, price and export and invest in. Where deals can be done singularly, they will be, when conformity with other requirements (trading blocks) are necessary that will happen. Where we can 'pick and choose'we will, where we can't we do without, or seek alternatives... the key will be flexibility at all levels and in all expectations, this has to be set out by the government for everyone to understand, or at least not ignore. It will be in a sense a search for self sufficiency, it is unlikely to be achieved in totality, but if 'we cut the clothe' etc. do the things as a nation that people do in their homes, then there is every chance of success. Being light on our feet able to move quickly, uninhibited by having to seek approvals beyond our shores.
If the GE goes as expected the Labour government will be in a position to do what its predecessor did post WW2 and make the commitments and take the direction, that will change the lives of millions of ordinary people for the better.
On a personal level I do now believe the UK itself will have to be reinvented, the aspirations of all peoples across these islands will need to be recognised and addressed, a new written constitution that recognises legitimate aspirations will be needed. Whether this proceeds from, or is included in, or comes much later I am not sure, but the energy, time and cost of continuous wrangling in and between nations and peoples has to be addressed, it cannot be afforded any longer, maybe this is the true meaning for the post make brexit work era!
Unfortunately Ian Blackford (much as I enjoyed watching him tearing Boris Johnson to shreds in the HoC) had nothing to lose.
Honestly, if Starmer even breathed a word against Brexit, he would be less likely to win the next GE than the Monster Raving Looney Party. That is a fact of life.
Edit. Anti Brexit is a no go area.
But you're still talking like the Brexiters who convinced the public that the UK never traded with anyone else apart from countries in the EU.
What you describe is exactly what the UK has been doing before, during and after being in the EU. It's not revolutionary. It was able to sell more whilst being in the EU because the barriers were removed. Now they're back.
There are no other countries that the Uk doesn't already deal with.
56% of the UK's exports went to the EU. The clue's there - 44% of it's exports didn't go to the EU. Nothing stopped the UK dealing with other countries, I spent most of my working life doing exactly that! The 44% as a value is not going to increase but the 56% as a value will decrease. Ergo you will be selling much less to the EU and thus worldwide.
Please say you understand.
So I'll ask the question - who are you going to sell to and what are you going to sell?
No Paul, that's not it at all, the brexiteers didn't convince anyone of anything, what they did was open a 'Pandora type box' with a simple message delivered by Cameron's referendum..... "do you want more of the same". or "do you want a change". I suspect that other than the 'Ultra's' in brexiteers very few people who voted leave even considered trade issues.
Yes, I don't doubt any of these figures and yes for reasons associated with the UK not being in the EU ,changes will occur 56 % becomes 46% even 40% or less, but a lot of that is due to regulations on both sides. If the next Government, Starmer or whoever doesn't do something then things will worsen, that's a given; however ultimately as you know trade continues if the product/price/timing can be met.... I do understand that Paul, honest I do!!!
My point, what you seem to fail to grasp, is that the new Governments ability to make any progress with the trading situation involves much more than trade. As I have said repeatedly the people who keep the wheels turning in the UK have to be onboard with trade issues as well as a myriad of other matters.
The majority have become something of a 'lost tribe' in the UK in recent decades, terms like the 'working poor' were unheard of until zero hours contracts etc.came along. It's no longer a case of seeing the unemployed as being 'work shy', or the homeless as ' preferring a life on the streets' I'm not sure any of those things were ever true, but they certainly are not nowadays. The new government has to start again and produce plans which address these and other 'social' issues, it will then know exactly what it needs to do and trade once again becomes front and centre, but this time the ground work has been done with the UK public... and who knows, preparing for his second term in office, Starmer may have in his GE manifesto around 2030, or perhaps his third term around 2035..."H.M.Government will seek to rejoin the EU"!!
However, for all sorts of reasons this will certainly not happen after the next GE and if Starmer doesn't get it right, maybe not even the next GE, lets face it the EU will not want to admit a 'basket case' economy. Also if the UK has not changed its stance on certain key questions (mentioned else where) we won't be welcome.
The UK exports are not going to fall off a cliff immediately, alternatives can be found, including a properly taken decision to reapply to the EU, but we have to fix other things first, which no doubt Starmer understands very well.
There has been nobody strong enough to oppose it. The opposition are too scared or maybe they believe in Brexit too.
At some point there will be opposition. Just a question of how long it takes for someone with some sense and strength of character.
The problem with opposing it is you give fuel to the tories to rally up support from all the people who are still irrationally in support of it for reasons that are definitely 100% nothing to do with xenophobia. I mean we basically have female Hitler as home secretary purely because Sunak knows a lot of the remaining tory vote would turn on him if he even slightly moved towards being less anti Europe (i.e. anti foreigners).
I doubt anyone really believes in Brexit if you wipe away the nasty underlying "get out of our country" tone behind it, because it has simply become obvious it was a really terrible idea from every other perspective. In that it was already quite obvious but now its like knowing it would be a bad idea to paint " my neighbours are cn*ts" on the front of your house, but you did it anyway and its turned out it was a bad idea, but the problem is knowing it is and admitting it is are different, because the latter requires you to also admit your neighbours might not actually all be cn*ts.
And with Brexit we had a referendum and then years of constantly needing to get brexit done and then an election where one party got slaughtered in the vote due to not being pro get brexit done enough, which suggests there's quite a sizeable number of people in this country who might still willingly cut of their nose to spite their face.
Or in summary there are a lot of really stupid people in the UK who's vote counts the same as the rest of us.
It’s very simplified to just say “the UK”, are you talking about the politicians or the general public? We know that the general public was intentionally lied to, not only by the leave campaign and politicians, but also by the BBC with the stuff that’s come out about Kuenssburg in the last few days. You expect it from some media but maybe less so from the BBC. Unfortunately that was very effective and continues to be, especially for those who simply don’t like politics.You're still not getting it regarding trade. I can't explain any more - there's no miracle cure to losing trade. What alternatives? You're still not listening to me.
All the other things like a social contract, ending zero hours contracts (only a UK problem) , NHS, education, infrastructure etc etc etc are internal UK issues which has little to do with being inside or outside the EU . This is internal UK politics and everything that has gone wrong has always been blamed on someone else like the EU or immigrants or someone else but never the politicians who are actually responsible and the public fell for it all. All these things could have been fixed inside the EU, in fact the UK had much more of a chance to fix them inside the EU.
The Uk has believed all the rubbish, nonsense and lies and will carry on to the bitter end because they can't admit they were conned.
They won't get back in the EU time soon, no, but they probably will eventually, the Tories and Starmer are just prolonging the time.
It’s very simplified to just say “the UK”, are you talking about the politicians or the general public? We know that the general public was intentionally lied to, not only by the leave campaign and politicians, but also by the BBC with the stuff that’s come out about Kuenssburg in the last few days. You expect it from some media but maybe less so from the BBC. Unfortunately that was very effective and continues to be, especially for those who simply don’t like politics.
I’ve given up on harbouring any resentment to those who voted for Brexit if they’ve changed their mind on it, and polls show that a majority of the UK now think it was wrong to leave.
In regards to the politicians, they clearly don’t think they can win an election off the back of a campaign to re-join, everything they do is to gain power and it’s rotten. The first step would be scrapping FPTP for PR, but the chances of getting that are unfortunately so slim.