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Do you think there will be a Deal or No Deal?

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  • Poll closed .
Mogget said:


Another example of the sunlit uplands we were promised.
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I doubt that this is true. I am sure the UK has a non visa free agreement with the EU (and viceversa) for 90 days as the US and Canada have (among other countries)
 
4bars said:
I doubt that this is true. I am sure the UK has a non visa free agreement with the EU (and viceversa) for 90 days as the US and Canada have (among other countries)
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Sounds more or less true

https://au.france.fr/en/holiday-prep/brexit-travel-rules-uk-france

Usually only 65 euros a day required rather than the 120 stated in that tweet. But certainly a far cry from what used to be.

Edit: No visa for under 90 days but you d need a valid passport with 6 months validity remaining plus.
  • Proof of accommodation during your stay (booking for hotel, gîte, Airbnb or B&B for tourists, second-home owners may need to provide proof of address such as a utility bill and if you’re staying with friends or family you may need an Attestation d’accueil, see below)
  • A return ticket or the means to acquire one
  • Sufficient financial means to cover basic costs during your stay. The guideline figures for this are; €65 per day if you have a hotel booking, €120 per day if you have no hotel booking, €32.50 per day if you are staying with friends or family
  • Insurance that covers health costs and the cost of repatriation if required (see health cover section below)
  • If you are transiting through France you may be asked for proof of your right to enter your final destination
 
Wibble said:
Sounds more or less true

https://au.france.fr/en/holiday-prep/brexit-travel-rules-uk-france

Usually only 65 euros a day required rather than the 120 stated in that tweet. But certainly a far cry from what used to be.

Edit: No visa for under 90 days but you d need a valid passport with 6 months validity remaining plus.
  • Proof of accommodation during your stay (booking for hotel, gîte, Airbnb or B&B for tourists, second-home owners may need to provide proof of address such as a utility bill and if you’re staying with friends or family you may need an Attestation d’accueil, see below)
  • A return ticket or the means to acquire one
  • Sufficient financial means to cover basic costs during your stay. The guideline figures for this are; €65 per day if you have a hotel booking, €120 per day if you have no hotel booking, €32.50 per day if you are staying with friends or family
  • Insurance that covers health costs and the cost of repatriation if required (see health cover section below)
  • If you are transiting through France you may be asked for proof of your right to enter your final destination
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Well, then is way more stringent then US and Canada. I guess I would need the same if I would like to visit UK
 
4bars said:
Well, then is way more stringent then US and Canada. I guess I would need the same if I would like to visit UK
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Except at the moment the UK seems to also like to lock you up for a while if anything isn't quite right.
 
4bars said:
I doubt that this is true. I am sure the UK has a non visa free agreement with the EU (and viceversa) for 90 days as the US and Canada have (among other countries)
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I'm old enough to remember travelling to France from the UK before the UK joined the EC. Used to have to write in your passport how much sterling you were taking out the country, how many travellers cheques and have your passport stamped each time you passed through customs. Oh for the good bad old days!
 
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A man who has run out of ideas and looking for another middleman to blame.
 
finneh said:
Does free trade really need positive explanations?
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Free trade with potentially negative consequences and no known positives as in the article, definitely. It's not so much that anyway more the inference that the deal is totally politically motivated rather than commercially.
 
Balljy said:
Free trade with potentially negative consequences and no known positives as in the article, definitely. It's not so much that anyway more the inference that the deal is totally politically motivated rather than commercially.
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I thought the argument for protectionism had been widely recognised as lost (save for a wave of Trumpian populism a few years back).

The opportunity for more choice and cheaper costs to the consumer far outweigh a few pissed off farmers who will have a bit more competition.

In truth on the rare occasion that government makes a good decision, I tend not to worry myself with their motivation.
Wibble said:
We currently import more from the UK than we export apparently but I guess farmers fear Australian meat will become cheaper and flood the market.
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That being the case it should be seen as an opportunity.

If someone doing the exact same job as me (with a similar cost base) could distribute a product from 10,000 miles away to my customer more competitively than I could from a couple of hundred miles away, whilst at the same time being similar on quality; I'd be looking at my own business practices rather than crying for barriers to trade.

Farming has always been a sacred cow though (excuse the pun) in terms of free trade (see the Common Agriculture Policy).
 
finneh said:
I thought the argument for protectionism had been widely recognised as lost (save for a wave of Trumpian populism a few years back).

The opportunity for more choice and cheaper costs to the consumer far outweigh a few pissed off farmers who will have a bit more competition.

In truth on the rare occasion that government makes a good decision, I tend not to worry myself with their motivation.


That being the case it should be seen as an opportunity.

If someone doing the exact same job as me (with a similar cost base) could distribute a product from 10,000 miles away to my customer more competitively than I could from a couple of hundred miles away, whilst at the same time being similar on quality; I'd be looking at my own business practices rather than crying for barriers to trade.

Farming has always been a sacred cow though (excuse the pun) in terms of free trade (see the Common Agriculture Policy).
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I think Australia see this as an easy deal that is very much in our interests and probably better than we would get if the UK wasn't desperate to get deals done.
 
Well, nearly 5 months in and all I've seen so far are disadvantages, both for Brits at home and abroad. Extra costs, extra bureaucracy, extra everything that's not a benefit.
 
Penna said:
Well, nearly 5 months in and all I've seen so far are disadvantages, both for Brits at home and abroad. Extra costs, extra bureaucracy, extra everything that's not a benefit.
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But freedom or something. And no more brown or black people stealing the jobs we still won't or can't do.
 
Wibble said:
I think Australia see this as an easy deal that is very much in our interests and probably better than we would get if the UK wasn't desperate to get deals done.
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It's in both parties' interests. The only people who will potentially lose out are inefficient Aussie or British farmers that want to stymy competition.
 
Balljy said:
UK makes free-trade offer to Australia despite farmers' fears - BBC News

The only positive explanation for this trade deal that the BBC can come up with in the article is " Ministers are keen to strike as many trade deals as possible following Brexit, and Ms Truss wants one in place with Australia by the time the UK hosts the G7 summit - of leading economies - in June.." Sounds good then...
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More moronic actions from Liz Truss. Destroy the British farmers trade with the EU for peanuts with a far off country. People still believe this nonsense.
It's like being a millionaire , losing it all and celebrate picking ten quid off the pavement. They'll learn eventually.
 
Paul the Wolf said:
More moronic actions from Liz Truss. Destroy the British farmers trade with the EU for peanuts with a far off country. People still believe this nonsense.
It's like being a millionaire , losing it all and celebrate picking ten quid off the pavement. They'll learn eventually.
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Even the trade department reckon this deal will increase GDP by a tiny amount:

"The trade department says a deal will only boost GDP by £500m spread over the next 15 years, or around 0.025% of GDP, showing how small the likely direct benefit will be"

UK-Australia trade deal: what are the key issues? | Trade policy | The Guardian
 
Penna said:
Well, nearly 5 months in and all I've seen so far are disadvantages, both for Brits at home and abroad. Extra costs, extra bureaucracy, extra everything that's not a benefit.
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It's going to get worse not better, all the regulations are being phased in and the full effects won't be seen for another two years.

My daughter learnt yesterday that her best English friend who was planning to live here has decided to return to the UK as soon as their son reaches 18, he is going to stay as he is doing well with his BAC (A Levels) and has a job already. My daughter's friend has already been living here for quite a few years with the son, had cancer treatment here which seemed to have been successful but her husband is a fireman in the UK used to come every couple of weeks by plane for a small airfare. He was due to retire in a couple of years and start a small business here. Now impossible.

End result family's dreams ruined, son splits from parents and friends torn apart.

Lots of British are going back to the UK, loads of houses for sale in the known British hotspots in this region.
 
finneh said:
It's in both parties' interests. The only people who will potentially lose out are inefficient Aussie or British farmers that want to stymy competition.
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What if that inefficiency is caused by different social standards? Will Brits be happy to play by Aussie rules or will British farmers just have to accept that Aussie farmers have different rules that govern their competitiveness?
 
Balljy said:
Even the trade department reckon this deal will increase GDP by a tiny amount:

"The trade department says a deal will only boost GDP by £500m spread over the next 15 years, or around 0.025% of GDP, showing how small the likely direct benefit will be"

UK-Australia trade deal: what are the key issues? | Trade policy | The Guardian
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Remember before the referendum one of the arguments from the Brexiters was we want trade deals more suited to the UK than to the EU as a whole. So far this has meant that thanks to Liz Truss the Uk can now sell stilton to Japan, quince to India tariff free even though they don't buy it and now trade the same products with a country on the other side of the world for a minuscule amount.

They could also sort out 90% of the problems with NI if the UK agreed to EU food standards. They won't and why they won't must be a serious cause for concern for UK consumers.
 
Abizzz said:
What if that inefficiency is caused by different social standards? Will Brits be happy to play by Aussie rules or will British farmers just have to accept that Aussie farmers have different rules that govern their competitiveness?
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If there's a nuance in Australian farming legislation that allows a completely safe product to be manufactured in a much cheaper way; a way that is currently not allowed in the UK for whatever reason, then the government should of course look to iron out that nuance and allow UK farmers to compete on a level playing field.
 
finneh said:
If there's a nuance in Australian farming legislation that allows a completely safe product to be manufactured in a much cheaper way; a way that is currently not allowed in the UK for whatever reason, then the government should of course look to iron out that nuance and allow UK farmers to compete on a level playing field.
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And you trust Boris, Liz and Edwardian Mogg to do that? I only have rudimentary knowledge about farming but just this morning I read that Australian farmers can just bury their deceased livestock on their fields while UK farmers have to pay 20 pounds to get rid of it (which makes sense imo). If I was looking to invest I know where my investment would go to improve efficiency...
 
Abizzz said:
And you trust Boris, Liz and Edwardian Mogg to do that? I only have rudimentary knowledge about farming but just this morning I read that Australian farmers can just bury their deceased livestock on their fields while UK farmers have to pay 20 pounds to get rid of it (which makes sense imo). If I was looking to invest I know where my investment would go to raise efficiency...
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In the words of a great man "If you put the federal government in charge of the Sahara Desert, in 5 years there'd be a shortage of sand."

So no, I wouldn't trust government, in any scenario whatsoever, to do anything but make that situation worse.
 
Paul the Wolf said:
Remember before the referendum one of the arguments from the Brexiters was we want trade deals more suited to the UK than to the EU as a whole. So far this has meant that thanks to Liz Truss the Uk can now sell stilton to Japan, quince to India tariff free even though they don't buy it and now trade the same products with a country on the other side of the world for a minuscule amount.

They could also sort out 90% of the problems with NI if the UK agreed to EU food standards. They won't and why they won't must be a serious cause for concern for UK consumers.
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I saw this yesterday in the Tel. Despite the fact it's shattered the dreams of a swathe of their readership, it's very dispassionately written and doesn't criticise Brexit.

Why the expat retirement dream could be gone forever
Sun-seeking pensioners no longer have the same rights following Brexit

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/pensions-retirement/news/expat-retirement-dream-could-gone-forever/
 
Paul the Wolf said:
It's going to get worse not better, all the regulations are being phased in and the full effects won't be seen for another two years.

My daughter learnt yesterday that her best English friend who was planning to live here has decided to return to the UK as soon as their son reaches 18, he is going to stay as he is doing well with his BAC (A Levels) and has a job already. My daughter's friend has already been living here for quite a few years with the son, had cancer treatment here which seemed to have been successful but her husband is a fireman in the UK used to come every couple of weeks by plane for a small airfare. He was due to retire in a couple of years and start a small business here. Now impossible.

End result family's dreams ruined, son splits from parents and friends torn apart.

Lots of British are going back to the UK, loads of houses for sale in the known British hotspots in this region.
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It's so sad. I queued up at the Immigration Office the other week to collect our new residence cards (specifically for Brits who've retained their rights to stay), and it really brought it home that if you're British, you're now no different than any other non-European. We have the cards and the right to stay, but we're out of the club.

Of course, if you're determined to remain in a European country and are happy to pay your way as a British immigrant it's possible to do that, as we have - but for many who just enjoyed the freedom of movement bit with no ties or checks, that's no longer possible. As you'll know, it's not cheap or easy to take residency. I doubt we'd have done it if not for Brexit, for years we were happy doing three months here and three back in the UK, rinse and repeat. Now we have no intention of returning to live in the UK, even though we have a small property there (our fallback in case everything somehow goes pear-shaped).
 
Jippy said:
I saw this yesterday in the Tel. Despite the fact it's shattered the dreams of a swathe of their readership, it's very dispassionately written and doesn't criticise Brexit.

Why the expat retirement dream could be gone forever
Sun-seeking pensioners no longer have the same rights following Brexit

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/pensions-retirement/news/expat-retirement-dream-could-gone-forever/
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I know quite a lot of Brits around this area . Some didn't realise what the effect would be, some are heartbroken they have to return back to the UK; those that were more savvy did the necessary. People can live here if they do the necessary and meet the requirements. Many Brits don't speak french and those that do speak some struggle because they don't know enough.

Those that have coped found the system is quite easy and cheap if you know what you're doing and have a good command of french.

The Uk will have a lot of older people to look after.
 
Penna said:
It's so sad. I queued up at the Immigration Office the other week to collect our new residence cards (specifically for Brits who've retained their rights to stay), and it really brought it home that if you're British, you're now no different than any other non-European. We have the cards and the right to stay, but we're out of the club.

Of course, if you're determined to remain in a European country and are happy to pay your way as a British immigrant it's possible to do that, as we have - but for many who just enjoyed the freedom of movement bit with no ties or checks, that's no longer possible. As you'll know, it's not cheap or easy to take residency. I doubt we'd have done it if not for Brexit, for years we were happy doing three months here and three back in the UK, rinse and repeat. Now we have no intention of returning to live in the UK, even though we have a small property there (our fallback in case everything somehow goes pear-shaped).
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I feel really sad for some people I know, they are so angry with Brexiters. Before everything was so easy, people could come and go as they please, hop on a plane for less than the price of a train ticket in the UK.
It took a time but was easy for me to get french nationality for €55 . My son-in-law didn't take french nationality but was told to apply for his carte de séjour last October and got it at the beginning of January for free, he's got his own business and was a very simple process.
 
Maticmaker said:
Will they bring all their money back?
Otherwise, the choice is re-settle in the wilds of Scotland, or internment camps;) in the North Riding!
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But those I know are not rich villa owners on the Côte d'Azur, they are ordinary people who bought houses years ago who intended to live here for the rest of their life on their pension. Lots would be lucky to sell their houses at the price they paid for them and then they'd have to buy a house in the UK which are more expensive. Maybe Priti Patel will arrange a camp for the undesirable returnees who will be a burden on the state.
 
Paul the Wolf said:
But those I know are not rich villa owners on the Côte d'Azur, they are ordinary people who bought houses years ago who intended to live here for the rest of their life on their pension. Lots would be lucky to sell their houses at the price they paid for them and then they'd have to buy a house in the UK which are more expensive. Maybe Priti Patel will arrange a camp for the undesirable returnees who will be a burden on the state.
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What do you suppose the average price of these houses people are going to have to leave? I realise that's a bit finger in the wind but I'd appreciate a guess maybe.
 
Paul the Wolf said:
But those I know are not rich villa owners on the Côte d'Azur, they are ordinary people who bought houses years ago who intended to live here for the rest of their life on their pension. Lots would be lucky to sell their houses at the price they paid for them and then they'd have to buy a house in the UK which are more expensive. Maybe Priti Patel will arrange a camp for the undesirable returnees who will be a burden on the state.
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Yes, it is personally devastating for many who are in the position you mention. The fact is though that 'pensions' formerly spent in France/Spain/Italy and elsewhere which on some level must have benefited the locality, will now be spent in the UK.

Do you think the Brexiteers' may have had this mind...?.... yet more information not revealed before the referendum!
 
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