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Do you think there will be a Deal or No Deal?


  • Total voters
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I don't think it's a question of sympathy, shit happens and we had it fairly good for a good while. The UK seems insistent on heading down a dark wormhole with no known destination but perhaps we'll all be pleasantly surprised that Boris actually knew all of the time exactly what he was doing and it would have a positive outcome. Or perhaps it was just about making his friends even richer. I have some empathy for those whose lives have been turned upside down and are going to suffer for it.

Yep, I was agreeing with you wholeheartedly. Just adding context as to why many will just shorthand “This is what you asked for”, as that’s all WE hear. It’s lazy. Most that voted Remain have absolutely sympathy and empathy for kindred spirits overseas.
 
Yep, I was agreeing with you wholeheartedly. Just adding context as to why many will just shorthand “This is what you asked for”, as that’s all WE hear. It’s lazy. Most that voted Remain have absolutely sympathy and empathy for kindred spirits overseas.
I appreciate that, I was just saying that I'm not looking for sympathy, as a country we've made our bed. With the recent election it's worrying that despite it being plain that our leaders are corrupt as the day is long, that the majority (first past the post) want to bury their heads and deny that thet can see what they've fallen for.

UK ex-pats (mostly apart from some duffers) love Europe, love being a part of it, are open to new cultures and people. It's a shame but before we're through I have a feeling we're in for some very bad times as a country.
 
It's in both parties' interests. The only people who will potentially lose out are inefficient Aussie or British farmers that want to stymy competition.

That is so shortsighted. You risk to decimate your local food supply chain. Do that and if a war starts and you depend on food imports and you are fecked. The times that you can raid the indian granaries killing millions of indians are long gone

Protectionism in food products are to maintain a sustainable national industry for survival
 
That is so shortsighted. You risk to decimate your local food supply chain. Do that and if a war starts and you depend on food imports and you are fecked. The times that you can raid the indian granaries killing millions of indians are long gone

Protectionism in food products are to maintain a sustainable national industry for survival
...or a pandemic that really messes up global supply chains. Far-fetched, I know.

Also, it'd be interesting to learn exactly why Australia can produce meat so much more cheaply. Free-trade agreements tend to contribute to race-to-the-bottom dynamics, which is definitely not a positive aspect of them.
 
Also, it'd be interesting to learn exactly why Australia can produce meat so much more cheaply.

Mainly massive economies of scale and outdoor rearing mainly. Cattle are raised outdoors with very low supervision on huge farms. The biggest being considerably bigger than Wales and 100,000 sq kms not unusual. They just adjust the density of stock to the quality of the pasture and let them roam most of the time.
 
So Brexit has been an even bigger cluster feck than expected with zero discernible benefit (apart from to Australia) so far. Who could have known?
 
Mainly massive economies of scale and outdoor rearing mainly. Cattle are raised outdoors with very low supervision on huge farms. The biggest being considerably bigger than Wales and 100,000 sq kms not unusual. They just adjust the density of stock to the quality of the pasture and let them roam most of the time.
That and the fact your main export partner is no longer accepting imports from Australia, which is driving the price of Australian beef down.

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-12-09/china-bans-cost-meat-industry-hundreds-of-millions/12961538

I don't think we'll see an FTA with Australia. The agri sector here in the UK aren't happy about it.

I've lived in both countries and can say for certain that beef products are cheaper in the UK. A sirloin steak from Coles is more expensive than its equivalent in Tesco.

Also, grass fed beef products are a luxury in Australia and you pay more for it. Gippsland beef, for example, is considered a premium beef product because they are mostly grass fed. Grain fed is the norm, which is more fatty in quality when compared to leaner grass fed beef, which is more the norm here in the UK. So really, in the UK we pay less for a better product...
 
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That and the fact your main export partner is no longer accepting imports from Australia, which is driving the price of Australian beef down.

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-12-09/china-bans-cost-meat-industry-hundreds-of-millions/12961538

I don't think we'll see an FTA with Australia. The agri sector here in the UK aren't happy about it.

I've lived in both countries and can say for certain that beef products are cheaper in the UK. A sirloin steak from Coles is more expensive than its equivalent in Tesco.

Also, grass fed beef products are a luxury in Australia and you pay more for it. Gippsland beef, for example, is considered a premium beef product because they are mostly grass fed. Grain fed is the norm, which is more fatty in quality when compared to leaner grass fed beef, which is more the norm here in the UK. So really, in the UK we pay less for a better product...

We overpay in our supermarkets for sure and the quality is terrible. You get much better meat for the same price at the butchers and if you want to pay more you can get stunning stuff, wagyu, grain fed, grass fed, dry aged, whatever you want. Like for almost everything here. But export prices are way lower than the UK product for an equivalent or better product apparently. When home I find supermarket meat, beef in particular, very bland, even more so than Coles meat.

And our government have brought their usual level of incompetence to our dealings with China which is currently costing us a 25-30% reduction in meat trade with China. So a new market will be very welcome. We gain money and Boris says he is getting business done before breaking into a new verse of Rule Britannia.
 
That is so shortsighted. You risk to decimate your local food supply chain. Do that and if a war starts and you depend on food imports and you are fecked. The times that you can raid the indian granaries killing millions of indians are long gone

Protectionism in food products are to maintain a sustainable national industry for survival

The UK market isn't going to be decimated by a competitor who has costs to export their product 10,000 miles, along with a higher minimum wage and similar standards. UK farmers will have a bit more competition and UK consumers will likely get a bit better price and/or a wider selection of products. It's clearly a win-win however much people wish it wasn't.
 
The UK market isn't going to be decimated by a competitor who has costs to export their product 10,000 miles, along with a higher minimum wage and similar standards. UK farmers will have a bit more competition and UK consumers will likely get a bit better price and/or a wider selection of products. It's clearly a win-win however much people wish it wasn't.

I wonder what the cost of farm land in Australia is compared to the UK?

I wonder if Australian meat being imported to the UK will be subject to the same regulations and overheads British meat will be subject to if British farmers also need to export a percentage of their meat to the EU?
 
The UK market isn't going to be decimated by a competitor who has costs to export their product 10,000 miles, along with a higher minimum wage and similar standards. UK farmers will have a bit more competition and UK consumers will likely get a bit better price and/or a wider selection of products. It's clearly a win-win however much people wish it wasn't.

whatever man. Playing with the local food supply chain as is a capitalist market is not good. Plain and simple. Put pressure with Australia, put some more pressure with a a handful of countries more and that's it.

win-win like the fishermen and see how is going
win-win like brexit
 
EU market is at least part a fresh meat market, Australian market is a frozen meat market, Australian rules are severe. Transport costs and three month shipping times The volumes and amounts involved are tiny and will damage the UK market.

Completely and utterly insane to sacrifice the British farmers for a pittance. Net result is a massive loss to the UK.
Hope Australia wants to buy frozen legs of unicorn. Liz Truss will have negotiated tariff free unicorn access in fifteen years time.
 
EU market is at least part a fresh meat market, Australian market is a frozen meat market, Australian rules are severe. Transport costs and three month shipping times The volumes and amounts involved are tiny and will damage the UK market.

Completely and utterly insane to sacrifice the British farmers for a pittance. Net result is a massive loss to the UK.
Hope Australia wants to buy frozen legs of unicorn. Liz Truss will have negotiated tariff free unicorn access in fifteen years time.
Unicorn does taste good and its fat free!
 
EU market is at least part a fresh meat market, Australian market is a frozen meat market, Australian rules are severe. Transport costs and three month shipping times The volumes and amounts involved are tiny and will damage the UK market.

Completely and utterly insane to sacrifice the British farmers for a pittance. Net result is a massive loss to the UK.
Hope Australia wants to buy frozen legs of unicorn. Liz Truss will have negotiated tariff free unicorn access in fifteen years time.

Do you know what amazes me. That despite farmers and some senior politicians trying to warn the government about the likely risks involved, they choose not to listen.
Now they are either right (there has to be a first time).
Or they have another agenda-just get as many deals done as possible and worry about the consequences after.
Or they really are dim as assholes.
I would like to believe that it is the first, but actually believe it is a combination of the last 2.
 
I wonder what the cost of farm land in Australia is compared to the UK?

I wonder if Australian meat being imported to the UK will be subject to the same regulations and overheads British meat will be subject to if British farmers also need to export a percentage of their meat to the EU?

If farmland and overheads are so much cheaper (and/or efficiencies so much better), such that we can buy food much more competitively from thousands of miles away, then farmers should diversify their businesses and use their valuable land for something else (or invest in equipment to close that efficiency gap). Making poor people pay more for food just to subsidise privileged British landowners is crazy in my view.

As I said before if the Australians can produce a safe and delicious product that the UK populace wants to buy and UK farmers can't compete simply because of beurocracy and red tape; then the UK government should get rid of those barriers.
 
Do you know what amazes me. That despite farmers and some senior politicians trying to warn the government about the likely risks involved, they choose not to listen.
Now they are either right (there has to be a first time).
Or they have another agenda-just get as many deals done as possible and worry about the consequences after.
Or they really are dim as assholes.
I would like to believe that it is the first, but actually believe it is a combination of the last 2.

It's a consequence of lies, there's been a snowball of lies from day one and there has to be another lie to cover the last one.
Global Britain was one of the selling points of Brexit. They brought this false illusion that the UK didn't deal with other countries outside the EU and there were magnificent opportunities being restricted by trade with the EU. The UK couldn't have had a better trade deal than the one with the EU.

So they now have to show they are making some kinds of deals with far off countries, it's all for show, people don't look at details.
They've just about destroyed the fishing industry, then the farmers next, then the car industry and the service industry.

They've gone too far on their runaway train and can't turn round and say actually it was all a big mistake.
 
If farmland and overheads are so much cheaper (and/or efficiencies so much better), such that we can buy food much more competitively from thousands of miles away, then farmers should diversify their businesses and use their valuable land for something else (or invest in equipment to close that efficiency gap). Making poor people pay more for food just to subsidise privileged British landowners is crazy in my view.

As I said before if the Australians can produce a safe and delicious product that the UK populace wants to buy and UK farmers can't compete simply because of beurocracy and red tape; then the UK government should get rid of those barriers.
What impact do you think that would have on the local economy? Do you think it’s just farmers that benefit from the agriculture industry?

Vets? Logistics? Labourers? Engineers? Abattoirs? Butchers?

Let’s say we just import meat from now on, what happens to all the jobs that feed off of the industry?

I have to admit, I never thought one of the post Brexit arguments would be “we can now let British industry collapse because we can import everything cheaper”.

It’ll be great if we can apply this logic across the entire economy so we can all import stuff cheaply from abroad despite the fact nobody has jobs anymore.
 
It's a consequence of lies, there's been a snowball of lies from day one and there has to be another lie to cover the last one.
Global Britain was one of the selling points of Brexit. They brought this false illusion that the UK didn't deal with other countries outside the EU and there were magnificent opportunities being restricted by trade with the EU. The UK couldn't have had a better trade deal than the one with the EU.

So they now have to show they are making some kinds of deals with far off countries, it's all for show, people don't look at details.
They've just about destroyed the fishing industry, then the farmers next, then the car industry and the service industry.

They've gone too far on their runaway train and can't turn round and say actually it was all a big mistake.

Yes. That sounds bang on to me. Just continue with the illusion. That is the most important thing. If you say something often enough, the gullible will believe it.
 
Yes. That sounds bang on to me. Just continue with the illusion. That is the most important thing. If you say something often enough, the gullible will believe it.

But when does it stop. It ends up with lowering standards. The EU know this , they will be extra vigilant, they don't want sub-standard products entering the EU market so the more the UK go down this route the more checks there will be.
 
What impact do you think that would have on the local economy? Do you think it’s just farmers that benefit from the agriculture industry?

Vets? Logistics? Labourers? Engineers? Abattoirs? Butchers?

Let’s say we just import meat from now on, what happens to all the jobs that feed off of the industry?

I have to admit, I never thought one of the post Brexit arguments would be “we can now let British industry collapse because we can import everything cheaper”.

It’ll be great if we can apply this logic across the entire economy so we can all import stuff cheaply from abroad despite the fact nobody has jobs anymore.

The argument for protectionism to protect jobs has been one that is shown to be flawed, except for the recent pockets of ignorant Trumpian populists. Economies over decades are shown to have diversified for the better when phasing out inefficient zombie industries.

What do you think would happen if the UK banned all imports for products that could potentially be made in the UK? Do you think there would be an economic boom? You have to see past the scare stories of vested interests of course.
 
The people who will prosper are those who move imaginary money around on computer networks to make huge amounts of real money. The likes of Rees-Mogg, for instance (and many others of his ilk). People who actually make stuff or grow stuff or catch stuff won't be in such a good place.
 
But when does it stop. It ends up with lowering standards. The EU know this , they will be extra vigilant, they don't want sub-standard products entering the EU market so the more the UK go down this route the more checks there will be.

That is a very good question. Not sure it will ever stop until the actual truth is both know, understood by the electorate and acted upon.
So I am not holding my breath. Just get on with it and don't bother me with the details....

To coin a great phrase by Pink Floyd... hanging on in quiet desperation is the English way..
 
We overpay in our supermarkets for sure and the quality is terrible. You get much better meat for the same price at the butchers and if you want to pay more you can get stunning stuff, wagyu, grain fed, grass fed, dry aged, whatever you want. Like for almost everything here. But export prices are way lower than the UK product for an equivalent or better product apparently. When home I find supermarket meat, beef in particular, very bland, even more so than Coles meat.

And our government have brought their usual level of incompetence to our dealings with China which is currently costing us a 25-30% reduction in meat trade with China. So a new market will be very welcome. We gain money and Boris says he is getting business done before breaking into a new verse of Rule Britannia.
I don't think there was any incompetence that can be put on your government. You exported warm water lobster inside batches of cold water lobster and some food safety tests conducted in China found parasites normally found on warm water lobster. The Chinese rightly shut Australia's food exports down. As happened here during the BSE crisis. To be expected that. Probably where they've gotten it wrong is putting all their eggs in the China basket, but considering the lack of export economies to sell into in APAC you can't really blame them. Lack of sufficient regulation on Australias side of the food sector is to blame, from what I've been reading. Ultimately, I don't think we'll see an FTA between Britain and Australia that undermines the British agri sector, why should there be really, Britain is 3 times the market in terms of size to Australia. And why would we import products from Australia we can get from Europe. If I were to guess the Australia FTA is being used as a political lever with the EU to reduce some of the post Brexit red tape on food exports and imports. That's just my guess though, could of course be wrong on that.
 
The argument for protectionism to protect jobs has been one that is shown to be flawed, except for the recent pockets of ignorant Trumpian populists. Economies over decades are shown to have diversified for the better when phasing out inefficient zombie industries.

What do you think would happen if the UK banned all imports for products that could potentially be made in the UK? Do you think there would be an economic boom? You have to see past the scare stories of vested interests of course.
Who is talking about “banning all imports”?
 
That is a very good question. Not sure it will ever stop until the actual truth is both know, understood by the electorate and acted upon.
So I am not holding my breath. Just get on with it and don't bother me with the details....

To coin a great phrase by Pink Floyd... hanging on in quiet desperation is the English way..

The truth was there five years ago, they didn't listen. For the fishing industry it was clear as day as what would happen. NI there were only 3 options. If the Uk import or try to sell sub-standard products their main market will disappear or greatly diminish. Supply chains get interrupted , those industries will eventually collapse. There are no surprises.

And for what?
 
The truth was there five years ago, they didn't listen. For the fishing industry it was clear as day as what would happen. NI there were only 3 options. If the Uk import or try to sell sub-standard products their main market will disappear or greatly diminish. Supply chains get interrupted , those industries will eventually collapse. There are no surprises.

And for what?

And for what... wish I knew. But I strongly believe it is about power.
It is like a religion. Most really know that God didn't create the Universe for example, but they carry on regardless because that is what they have been told.
 
I don't think there was any incompetence that can be put on your government. You exported warm water lobster inside batches of cold water lobster and some food safety tests conducted in China found parasites normally found on warm water lobster. The Chinese rightly shut Australia's food exports down. As happened here during the BSE crisis. To be expected that. Probably where they've gotten it wrong is putting all their eggs in the China basket, but considering the lack of export economies to sell into in APAC you can't really blame them. Lack of sufficient regulation on Australias side of the food sector is to blame, from what I've been reading. Ultimately, I don't think we'll see an FTA between Britain and Australia that undermines the British agri sector, why should there be really, Britain is 3 times the market in terms of size to Australia. And why would we import products from Australia we can get from Europe. If I were to guess the Australia FTA is being used as a political lever with the EU to reduce some of the post Brexit red tape on food exports and imports. That's just my guess though, could of course be wrong on that.

China screwing with imports of all sorts is purely political. Our Federal incompetents thought they could slag China off for domestic political gain and then were suprised when China noticed and got the hump.
 
China screwing with imports of all sorts is purely political. Our Federal incompetents thought they could slag China off for domestic political gain and then were suprised when China noticed and got the hump.
Yea, there's that aspect too. One of things that was happening when I lived out there was the great China sell-off. It was bound to happen eventually. You can't get into bed with someone economically and then spend your time bashing their domestic policies when they're essentially the hand that feeds you. That's not how partnerships work. I always thought Australia had a very high opinion of itself in terms of its position on the global stage. Found it funny how many Australians were surprised when they weren't given a permanent seat on the UN council. I think that attitude is part of why they felt they could bash China publicly, now they're food sector is feeling the brunt of the backlash. Minerals are going from strength to strength though. I seen that iron ore exports are increasing all the time. Which I guess is good for Australia's economy, helps paper over the imbalances.
 
Who is talking about “banning all imports”?

Do you think it would be a good idea to put large tariffs on all cars imported to the UK, given that we manufacture around 1m less cars per year than we buy?

If not why not?
 
I suppose the UK does have to sign a trade deal with Australia. The trouble is everything is political and performative with this govt; it most likely will be suboptimal.
 
And for what... wish I knew. But I strongly believe it is about power.
It is like a religion. Most really know that God didn't create the Universe for example, but they carry on regardless because that is what they have been told.

For the government it's all about power and one day if there ever is a credible opposition party they will lose that power.
In the meantime how much do the electorate put up with before they stop waving flags and realise they've been had.
 
Yea, there's that aspect too. One of things that was happening when I lived out there was the great China sell-off. It was bound to happen eventually. You can't get into bed with someone economically and then spend your time bashing their domestic policies when they're essentially the hand that feeds you. That's not how partnerships work. I always thought Australia had a very high opinion of itself in terms of its position on the global stage. Found it funny how many Australians were surprised when they weren't given a permanent seat on the UN council. I think that attitude is part of why they felt they could bash China publicly, now they're food sector is feeling the brunt of the backlash. Minerals are going from strength to strength though. I seen that iron ore exports are increasing all the time. Which I guess is good for Australia's economy, helps paper over the imbalances.

The current Federal government in particular are both arrogant and incompetent. They will do anything if it enriches the top end of town who fund them and/or help them get re-elected. They bagged China as it sells well to their base but apparently forgot that China doesn't take public insult well and that they also have the internet there.
 
For the government it's all about power and one day if there ever is a credible opposition party they will lose that power.
In the meantime how much do the electorate put up with before they stop waving flags and realise they've been had.

It is an illusion for most Governments.
Ever since Bill Clinton blew the lid on 'The Seven Sisters' (also see Antony Sampson books of the same name) influence in the 1990's its been clear that Governments can 're-arranged the deck chairs' but not much more, except maybe China, they look as though they are steering the ship!
 
If someone doing the exact same job as me (with a similar cost base) could distribute a product from 10,000 miles away to my customer more competitively than I could from a couple of hundred miles away, whilst at the same time being similar on quality; I'd be looking at my own business practices rather than crying for barriers to trade.

Farming has always been a sacred cow though (excuse the pun) in terms of free trade (see the Common Agriculture Policy).

From the little I know, the production in Australia is based in so-called "super farms" whereas in UK is more local smaller farmers. Even if the cost base would be the same (which is debatable as we are speaking about two different countries), Australian farmers might experience economies of scale that UK farmers don't.
 
From the little I know, the production in Australia is based in so-called "super farms" whereas in UK is more local smaller farmers. Even if the cost base would be the same (which is debatable as we are speaking about two different countries), Australian farmers might experience economies of scale that UK farmers don't.

Which is great as those savings as a result of large economies of scale can be passed on to the British consumer. The poorest in society may save a few quid a week that'll allow them a more comfortable existence.

Hopefully the competition from the Aussies would cause British farmers to invest to create their own "superfarms". The efficiencies that this would create would not only make it impossible for the former to compete from 10,000 miles away, but would also allow for global opportunities as they could afford to sell at a more competitive cost due to these new found efficiencies.

If not then they would need to diversify and use their resources more efficienctly; the same as pretty much every other industry.
 
Which is great as those savings as a result of large economies of scale can be passed on to the British consumer. The poorest in society may save a few quid a week that'll allow them a more comfortable existence.

Hopefully the competition from the Aussies would cause British farmers to invest to create their own "superfarms". The efficiencies that this would create would not only make it impossible for the former to compete from 10,000 miles away, but would also allow for global opportunities as they could afford to sell at a more competitive cost due to these new found efficiencies.

If not then they would need to diversify and use their resources more efficienctly; the same as pretty much every other industry.
Yeah, if we conquer half of Europe to get some more land this might be possible. Take your stupid wumming elsewhere.
 
Which is great as those savings as a result of large economies of scale can be passed on to the British consumer. The poorest in society may save a few quid a week that'll allow them a more comfortable existence.
Yeah, if there's one thing we can all agree on, it's that Brexit benefits the poor the most, not the rich.