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Do you think there will be a Deal or No Deal?

  • Total voters
    194
  • Poll closed .
Penna said:
May would have been much better than Johnson. She's a hard worker and detail-orientated.
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I disagree there. She was terrible. No one ever really knew what her intentions were.
Her Lancaster house speech in January 2017 was a tough message to the EU about the government's intentions in the upcoming brexit negotiations, but a month later she soften her approach considerably with her mansion house speech. No one really knew what was going on. She found she couldn't appease brexiteers with so many opposition remainers in parliament, so she sought to strengthen her hand by winning a larger majority to get her bills through. It backfired disastrously because her campaign was pitiful. She changed her mind so often, no one knew what form brexit would take. Because of this, it allowed Corbyn to sneak in and a claim he would get brexit done, and he gave all kinds of future faking promises as well.
With a weakened government she ebbed to and fro making concession after concession, and watching her cabinet members walk away one after the other. In the end she came up with a deal with the EU that was a treaty keeping us completely tied to the EU without the benefits of being a member. Pointless from a leave perspective, and a remain perspective.
Boris's deal is much much better, but not perfect with regards to services, Northern Ireland, and fishing. Obviously many aspects of the arrangement will be tweaked over time.
 
Penna said:
May would have been much better than Johnson. She's a hard worker and detail-orientated.
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I thought May was a terrible PM but compared to Johnson she actually looks good. Johnson is hopeless - he's given away NI, got no deal on services, got British people needing a permit to go into Kent , has nothing prepared for Brexit, he has actually negotiated nothing for the UK , even the fish which he made into a major issue he has gained virtually nothing.

You can tell by what he says he doesn't even understand Brexit himself, he is clueless and the fact he went to Eton wasn't because he was clever, it was because his parents paid for him,

At present the Covid crisis has saved him from immediate censor as the borders are virtually closed.

If he's still PM in a year's time I'd be surprised.
 
vidic blood & sand said:
I disagree there. She was terrible. No one ever really knew what her intentions were.
Her Lancaster house speech in January 2017 was a tough message to the EU about the government's intentions in the upcoming brexit negotiations, but a month later she soften her approach considerably with her mansion house speech. No one really knew what was going on. She found she couldn't appease brexiteers with so many opposition remainers in parliament, so she sought to strengthen her hand by winning a larger majority to get her bills through. It backfired disastrously because her campaign was pitiful. She changed her mind so often, no one knew what form brexit would take. Because of this, it allowed Corbyn to sneak in and a claim he would get brexit done, and he gave all kinds of future faking promises as well.
With a weakened government she ebbed to and fro making concession after concession, and watching her cabinet members walk away one after the other. In the end she came up with a deal with the EU that was a treaty keeping us completely tied to the EU without the benefits of being a member. Pointless from a leave perspective, and a remain perspective.
Boris's deal is much much better, but not perfect with regards to services, Northern Ireland, and fishing. Obviously many aspects of the arrangement will be tweaked over time.
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May, for all her failings, does actually have integrity and took her job of being PM seriously. She fell on the horns of the irreconcilable dilemmas of Brexit - how to protect the economy, preserve the GFA and the Union and, at the same time, achieve some meaningful change from Brexit by taking the UK outside of EU jurisdiction. Boris “feck business” Johnson has “resolved” the dilemma by focusing on maximum sovereignty to the extent even Bill Cash was happy, at the expense of the economy (you mention services like it’s a teething problem rather than 80% of the economy), while, as leader of the Conservative and Unionist Party, putting a border down the Irish Sea.

As an aside, May with her attention to detail and strong work ethic would no doubt have managed Covid better as well.
 
Paul the Wolf said:
I thought May was a terrible PM but compared to Johnson she actually looks good. Johnson is hopeless - he's given away NI, got no deal on services, got British people needing a permit to go into Kent , has nothing prepared for Brexit, he has actually negotiated nothing for the UK , even the fish which he made into a major issue he has gained virtually nothing.

You can tell by what he says he doesn't even understand Brexit himself, he is clueless and the fact he went to Eton wasn't because he was clever, it was because his parents paid for him,

At present the Covid crisis has saved him from immediate censor as the borders are virtually closed.

If he's still PM in a year's time I'd be surprised.
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I think you'll see a year or more of grace period to phase in full border checks. For example, the FT reported yesterday on one of the side deals: UK and EU attempt to ease Brexit paperwork burden
Companies exporting goods between the UK and the EU will be given a year to produce the supporting paperwork proving their goods are eligible for zero-tariff access to the EU, offering industries temporary relief from some of the new red tape they face after Brexit.
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I'm actually not that worried about the border flow, primarily because Ireland is so reliant on it too. It's in both the UK and EU's interest to keep freight flowing relatively smoothly. I'm sure there will be flare ups and disputes every so often, but in the main I expect the trusted-trader schemes in the deal and lenient application of checks will help keep it from all going completely off the rails, unless the UK starts dramatically changing its product regulations.
 
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MikeUpNorth said:
I think you'll see a year or more of grace period to phase in border checks. For example, the FT reported yesterday on one of the side deals: UK and EU attempt to ease Brexit paperwork burden


I'm actually not that worried about the border flow, primarily because Ireland is so reliant on it too. It's in both the UK and EU's interest to keep freight flowing relatively smoothly. I'm sure there will be flare ups and disputes every so often, but in the main I expect the trusted-trader schemes in the deal and lenient application of checks will help keep it from all going completely off the rails, unless the UK starts dramatically changing its product regulations.
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Yes certain aspects will be eased in, but it doesn't prevent the additional paperwork , delays and checks. Rules of origin will be fairly lenient on to get the paperwork ready but it will still be done at some point which means if it isn't done now, there will be a lot of catching up to do. There will still be checks and delays, especially regarding foodstuffs.
Trusted trader schemes will last until the UK start flouting the laws. Getting through the customs at Dover doesn't mean they've got away with it. There are two customs stations within 25kms of where I live and the nearest border is Spain which is over 300km away. Regular spot checks for HGVs.


You have the added problem of Kermit - will European truck drivers be able or want to bother with arranging a permit that lasts 24 hours.

We won't see the full effects until the borders go back to normal, ie. normal passenger and freight traffic.
 
Paul the Wolf said:
We won't see the full effects until the borders go back to normal, ie. normal passenger and freight traffic.
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This is what my hauliers are telling me... though they also say that they thought there would have been more issues on day one... probably it won't be as bad as the worst projections but there will be some issues... and probably both sides just point at the other and say you were wrong

To my mind little things like vat deferral bonds are probably going to be a bigger problem moving forwards as I just don't think the banks are set up for it properly
 
sun_tzu said:
This is what my hauliers are telling me... though they also say that they thought there would have been more issues on day one... probably it won't be as bad as the worst projections but there will be some issues... and probably both sides just point at the other and say you were wrong

To my mind little things like vat deferral bonds are probably going to be a bigger problem moving forwards as I just don't think the banks are set up for it properly
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There's hardly any traffic at the moment and it's holiday time without the holidaymakers.
Yes invisible things as you say will be just as much a problem.

What I still don't get is why people still think they won't have to comply with EU rules. Whether you are selling a product to the EU from the UK, Ghana or New Zealand the product has to comply with EU rules and standards.
If the UK want to produce substandard products for their population, they still won't be able to sell them abroad.
 
vidic blood & sand said:
Theresa May's deal was a treaty that kept us too closely aligned to the EU, which meant it would be a brexit in name only. Boris's treaty removes some of that alignment but with some compromising.
Boris did actually vote for Theresa May's deal with other hardline brexiteers like Rees Mogg, when it looked as though things were heading in the direction of having to either accept this deal, remain, or hold a second referendum.
Boris's landslide election victory gave him more weight to negotiate harder with the EU.

May a good leader?
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Of course, Labour thought Mrs. May was a marvellous Tory leader, she almost gave Corbyn the keys to No10.
 
vidic blood & sand said:
Theresa May's deal was a treaty that kept us too closely aligned to the EU, which meant it would be a brexit in name only. Boris's treaty removes some of that alignment but with some compromising.
Boris did actually vote for Theresa May's deal with other hardline brexiteers like Rees Mogg, when it looked as though things were heading in the direction of having to either accept this deal, remain, or hold a second referendum.
Boris's landslide election victory gave him more weight to negotiate harder with the EU.

May a good leader?
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Well that "harder" negotiation sure seems to have worked out.
 
Paul the Wolf said:
I thought May was a terrible PM but compared to Johnson she actually looks good. Johnson is hopeless - he's given away NI, got no deal on services, got British people needing a permit to go into Kent , has nothing prepared for Brexit, he has actually negotiated nothing for the UK , even the fish which he made into a major issue he has gained virtually nothing.

You can tell by what he says he doesn't even understand Brexit himself, he is clueless and the fact he went to Eton wasn't because he was clever, it was because his parents paid for him,

At present the Covid crisis has saved him from immediate censor as the borders are virtually closed.

If he's still PM in a year's time I'd be surprised.
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To be fair Johnson got into Eton on a scholarship then went to Oxford so he must've have been clever. But it's cleverness in a very narrow out of date British way - good at Classics, good with language (up to a point), good at debating, an opportunistic cleverness. Not clever in the sense of technical mastery, or 'high resolution' thinking or mathematical reasoning, or managerial competence- which is what we actually need these days (look at Merkel, who really is clever).
 
nickm said:
To be fair Johnson got into Eton on a scholarship then went to Oxford so he must've have been clever. But it's cleverness in a very narrow out of date British way - good at Classics, good with language (up to a point), good at debating, an opportunistic cleverness. Not clever in the sense of technical mastery, or 'high resolution' thinking or mathematical reasoning, or managerial competence- which is what we actually need these days (look at Merkel, who really is clever).
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Yes, well put.
 
So what's the taste of freedom like? Under tier-3 lockdown anyway.
 
A great primer on the changes for British citizens. There's a companion video for EU as well. Not sure if there have been any changes since 30 Dec, though. E.g. UK Driver's licenses are now recognised in EU to allow EU truck drivers to deliver in the EU.


 
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-55530721

I'm not sure what this 'HMRC service' is they want to charge a fee for. Sounds like they are forcing import vat on the seller rather than the importer and providing a simplified way (maybe) for them to pay and then claim back the vat? Otherwise registering a foreign vat number is far from simple. Either way a real pain in the arse for small/med businesses.
 
Simbo said:
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-55530721

I'm not sure what this 'HMRC service' is they want to charge a fee for. Sounds like they are forcing import vat on the seller rather than the importer and providing a simplified way (maybe) for them to pay and then claim back the vat? Otherwise registering a foreign vat number is far from simple. Either way a real pain in the arse for small/med businesses.
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for larger items of import it gets even more fun - you can defer the VAT - but only if you have a VAT deferment account - which is actually pretty easy to set up - but them you typically need a Bank bond (in my case for about 5 million quid) and you have to pay the bank for that service
Essentially guaranteeing you will pay your VAT when you import - yet running a limited company we always pay our VAT and don't have to guarantee any of our other HMRC payments - its a not insignificant admin burden and a cost that we (and I suspect all other companies) will be ultimately passing on up the chain and ultimately the end user will be paying it through higher prices
 
Simbo said:
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-55530721

I'm not sure what this 'HMRC service' is they want to charge a fee for. Sounds like they are forcing import vat on the seller rather than the importer and providing a simplified way (maybe) for them to pay and then claim back the vat? Otherwise registering a foreign vat number is far from simple. Either way a real pain in the arse for small/med businesses.
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I've had fun many times in the past with HMRC, they tend not to know what they're doing. Had to teach them .
They cannot force overseas companies to register in the UK for VAT. The importer has to pay the VAT.

They don't seem to understand that Intracommunitary VAT has finished and don't know what to do.
 
sun_tzu said:
for larger items of import it gets even more fun - you can defer the VAT - but only if you have a VAT deferment account - which is actually pretty easy to set up - but them you typically need a Bank bond (in my case for about 5 million quid) and you have to pay the bank for that service
Essentially guaranteeing you will pay your VAT when you import - yet running a limited company we always pay our VAT and don't have to guarantee any of our other HMRC payments - its a not insignificant admin burden and a cost that we (and I suspect all other companies) will be ultimately passing on up the chain and ultimately the end user will be paying it through higher prices
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Yeh Its a pain in the arse for sure, but its doable if management says its worth it. We're stopping direct shipments to Eire as we don't want to set up a place of business/vat reg/deferment/etc, but do have another option of going via NI.

We have a few big customers in France & Germany who have fortunately agreed that they will handle the import vat.
 
Am I just being paranoid or is it odd that the BBC Brexit page is all positivity and border crossings running smoothly, you have to go to the business page to read about EU firms stopping supply to the UK.
 
Simbo said:
Yeh Its a pain in the arse for sure, but its doable if management says its worth it. We're stopping direct shipments to Eire as we don't want to set up a place of business/vat reg/deferment/etc, but do have another option of going via NI.

We have a few big customers in France & Germany who have fortunately agreed that they will handle the import vat.
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What you are saying is normal, the customers in the countries you are shipping to will pay the VAT to their country's government.

But are you importing into the UK from the EU?

The article says:

VAT is now being collected at the point of sale rather than at the point of importation, a change that HMRC says will ensure that goods from EU and non-EU countries are treated in the same way.
This essentially means that overseas retailers sending goods to the UK are expected to register for UK VAT and account for it to HMRC if the sale value is less than €150 (£135).

VAT for all countries outside the EU had always been at importation not at the point of sale , now imports from the EU are the same as non-EU.

Makes zero sense.
 
The hidden victims of Brexit.

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Paul the Wolf said:
"I voted Brexit because I saw a whole world of exporting available..."

Nigel and Boris told him he couldn't export before the UK left the EU?
Unicorn island is a really weird place, no-one seems to have a clue what they voted for or how to deal with the fallout.
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I take it you've never heard of the Sunday Sport?
 
Just to flag up for any Brits resident in European countries - people are being turned away from flights when they try to return from the UK to their countries of residence.

Some airline staff have no idea what documents are required to prove residency, even though the actual travellers have the correct paperwork for their particular country of residence. They are also stamping the passports of people who have the right to unlimited stay in their EU country of residence, which will cause them no end of problems after 90 days.
 
Penna said:
Just to flag up for any Brits resident in European countries - people are being turned away from flights when they try to return from the UK to their countries of residence.

Some airline staff have no idea what documents are required to prove residency, even though the actual travellers have the correct paperwork for their particular country of residence. They are also stamping the passports of people who have the right to unlimited stay in their EU country of residence, which will cause them no end of problems after 90 days.
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Sounds like the EU Commission needs to get involved and remind countries of their responsibilities, as your rights as a resident of an EU country before the end of the year are guaranteed under the Withdrawal Agreement.
 
Penna said:
Just to flag up for any Brits resident in European countries - people are being turned away from flights when they try to return from the UK to their countries of residence.

Some airline staff have no idea what documents are required to prove residency, even though the actual travellers have the correct paperwork for their particular country of residence. They are also stamping the passports of people who have the right to unlimited stay in their EU country of residence, which will cause them no end of problems after 90 days.
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Well they've had years to prepare.... :rolleyes:
 
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