Brexited | the worst threads live the longest

[Simbo]

So what’s happening with the Irish border?

As others said, customs border is between NI & GB mainland, Irish border remains seamless. I've had to look into it as I work for a company that ships product from GB to NI/ROI and from our site in NI to ROI. Will splurge my findings in case it is of any interest to anyone...

We're stopping selling direct from GB to ROI, too much hassle, everything will go via NI with taxes paid on goods as it goes over Irish sea. Expect demand for warehouse space in NI to rise in the near future!! There's new admin work to do, for us and the shipping company we use, to move goods from ourselves to ourselves within the UK (NI). Even if EU tariffs are now zero after the 'deal', VAT will need to be paid/reclaimed and we've had to develop our IT system to produce the proper paperwork for the customs declaration and so we can now invoice ourselves for selling to our own fecking branch within the UK (NI).

As stated the Irish border remains pretty much unchanged. UK companies shipping from NI have just had to register for a different Vat/EORI number for use when shipping to the south so companies there can evidence why they are not paying Irish vat on the import. So a bit more IT work needed to put that info on goods specifically going over that border.

Interestingly, the Irish Sea border is basically a 1-way border. The ball-ache is only on goods being moved from GB->NI but there will be no checks/declarations on goods moving from NI->GB. I'm wondering if this is going to change the economy of NI somewhat...

 

[Mr Pigeon]

A tale of two journalists

-

 

[Dante]

It was the worst or times, it was the worster of times...

 

[noodlehair]

If it was the deal both sides wanted to achieve it wouldn't have taken until it was too late to ratify in time in order to achieve it, or involved nasty tactics like stacking lorries on the border to make a point. Both sides wanted some kind of deal but I doubt both got what they wanted.

I'm actually surprised as I thought Boris would completely feck it up so will wait until we find out a bit more

 

[Dancfc]

If it was the deal both sides wanted to achieve it wouldn't have taken until it was too late to ratify in time in order to achieve it, or involved nasty tactics like stacking lorries on the border to make a point. Both sides wanted some kind of deal but I doubt both got what they wanted.

I'm actually surprised as I thought Boris would completely feck it up so will wait until we find out a bit more

If this is real then it's no deal disguised as deal, genuinely wouldn't put it past Boris to do that.

 

[devilish]

If it was the deal both sides wanted to achieve it wouldn't have taken until it was too late to ratify in time in order to achieve it, or involved nasty tactics like stacking lorries on the border to make a point. Both sides wanted some kind of deal but I doubt both got what they wanted.

I'm actually surprised as I thought Boris would completely feck it up so will wait until we find out a bit more

Maybe they left it to the last second to avoid scrutiny

 

[Fully Fledged]

Wasn’t that something that absolutely wasn’t an option for the Tories??

Only while they needed DUP votes.

 

[GloryHunter07]

Hard Brexiters get their deal, lets hope its as good as promised.
Im ready to move on.

 

[Brwned]

If this is real then it's no deal disguised as deal, genuinely wouldn't put it past Boris to do that.

That was created by the EU and is framed in the most favourable way for them. Some of the criteria are ridiculous. “Easy recognition of professional qualifications”. It also doesn’t account for any of the things that are possible outside EU membership.

It is a list to encourage people who exist in the EU currently to appreciate some of the things they have, and it’s a reasonable one, but it isn’t a complete and objective assessment of what was gained and lost.

 

[Paul the Wolf]

I can't really understand your point on currencies if I am honest. If what you are saying is that the rate of exchange proves some point about being in or out of EU/EEC then do you have a graph of the relative strength of Sterling versus the Dmark/ Euro since we joined in the 70's? If this is your gold standard then lets at least measure the entire enterprise for fairness. I am not a lawyer so I am not asking because I know the answer, its a genuine question.

The poster made a point saying that the reason the pound dropped was because it was supposedly overvalued. However although it did drop initially after that, it regained its value by December. It then dropped when the rumours started that there was going to be a referendum. And has fallen ever since.

Currencies react to events. The pound was 1.67 in 2001 and went down to 1.02 during the crash. If the UK had left with no deal it would have dropped below parity.

So what are you saying, the other poster is correct because it's the reason you want it to be.

 

[Godfather]

That was created by the EU and is framed in the most favourable way for them. Some of the criteria are ridiculous. “Easy recognition of professional qualifications”. It also doesn’t account for any of the things that are possible outside EU membership.

It is a list to encourage people who exist in the EU currently to appreciate some of the things they have, and it’s a reasonable one, but it isn’t a complete and objective assessment of what was gained and lost.

Nothing was gained. The only question is how much was lost for the Brits.

 

[ClaytonBlackmoorLeftPeg]

UK carriers have stated "they have no plans" to bring back roaming charges. Unfortunately from 1st Jan EU carriers get given back the choice to charge Brits for using their services... I think we all know how that is going to go and that plans might change.

I can use my phone in the USA and Australia for free, and many other countries not in the EU.

 

[Brwned]

Nothing was gained. The only question is how much was lost for the Brits.

We already know additional revenues were gained for fishing. The EU upped their offer multiple times. It does also provide flexibility in multiple areas. The economic costs clearly outweighs the gains but the reason Brexiteers don’t engage in these debates is because people so flippantly say “nothing was x” when that is clearly not the case, and it doesn’t become a discussion about nuances but extremes. When the belief of EU supporters echoes the propaganda docs it raises questions.

 

[Paul the Wolf]

Admit victory - Admit defeat

Dont move goal posts, they dont always take years.

Houses can also be bought and sold in a day despite the legal bullshit in the background.

Where am I moving the goalposts. The agreement was already in place, and parts of it were stripped out. Starting from scratch for a new agreement will take years.

I admit it's unusual to voluntarily be worse off. It's a bit like renegotiating your employment contract to reduce your salary so you can have another job and then not get another job.

 

[ClaytonBlackmoorLeftPeg]

That was created by the EU and is framed in the most favourable way for them. Some of the criteria are ridiculous. “Easy recognition of professional qualifications”. It also doesn’t account for any of the things that are possible outside EU membership.

It is a list to encourage people who exist in the EU currently to appreciate some of the things they have, and it’s a reasonable one, but it isn’t a complete and objective assessment of what was gained and lost.

we will see a lot of this. Just posturing and bluster from both sides. Always surprises me how easily people believe what the EU say and take it as gospel.

they have political masters they have to placate and the people of 27 nations.

people should have the same level of scepticism for both sides.

 

[Fully Fledged]

I can use my phone in the USA and Australia for free, and many other countries not in the EU.

Sorry I pick up the wrong post.

We got sovereignty over our fishing waters.... Well, kinda, sorta, not really but BJ got his sound bite.
So now we all need to recapture our Dunkirk spirit row out into the Channel and catch ourselves something for dinner. Mind that you don't get hit by a ferry though.

 

[Godfather]

We already know additional revenues were gained for fishing. The EU upped their offer multiple times. It does also provide flexibility in multiple areas. The economic costs clearly outweighs the gains but the reason Brexiteers don’t engage in these debates is because people so flippantly say “nothing was x” when that is clearly not the case, and it doesn’t become a discussion about nuances but extremes.

Which is way I said that the only real question is, how much it is that has been lost. Much less than in a "no deal" scenario of course but it's nothing more than damage limitation. And I agree this graphic you quoted doesn't nearly show the full picture.

For my own profession the international law provisions will be interesting. Law applicable and place of jurisdiction is very well regulated within the EU. The Hague Convention does not cover all aspects of it at all and it looks unlikely that the EU will accept a re-joining of the Brits to the Lugano convention.

 

[Brwned]

Which is way I said that the only real question is, how much it is that has been lost. Much less than in a "no deal" scenario of course but it's nothing more than damage limitation. And I agree this graphic you quoted doesn't nearly show the full picture.

For my own profession the international law provisions will be interesting. Law applicable and place of jurisdiction is very well regulated within the EU. The Hague Convention does not cover all aspects of it at all and it looks unlikely that the EU will accept a re-joining of the Brits to the Lugano convention.

If you are just saying there will be a net loss and so the size of the losses matter most, then I agree. But that isn’t the same as saying there were no (gross) gains. There are things you can do outside of the EU than you can inside it. Not enough to justify it but now that we’re here, those gains are worth thinking about.

 

[Ajr]

Dont let the media spin it any other way, this is a hard brexit and as hard as it could have been without being no deal.

 

[Godfather]

If you are just saying there will be a net loss and so the size of the losses matter most, then I agree. But that isn’t the same as saying there were no (gross) gains. There are things you can do outside of the EU than you can inside it. Not enough to justify it but now that we’re here, those gains are worth thinking about.

I agree

 

[FireballXL5]

Dont let the media spin it any other way, this is a hard brexit and as hard as it could have been without being no deal.

Exactly this. The wheels will come off this pretty quickly I imagine.

 

[ClaytonBlackmoorLeftPeg]

Dont let the media spin it any other way, this is a hard brexit and as hard as it could have been without being no deal.

I think we’ve moved on from hard and soft Brexit a long time ago.

 

[Ajr]

I think we’ve moved on from hard and soft Brexit a long time ago.

Yes, we realised that they were going hard brexit a long time ago. This deal is what everyone used to call hard brexit, but they successfully shifted the narrative with the public thanks to the media to this vs no deal.

 

[Blackwidow]

 

[tombombadil]

As others said, customs border is between NI & GB mainland, Irish border remains seamless. I've had to look into it as I work for a company that ships product from GB to NI/ROI and from our site in NI to ROI. Will splurge my findings in case it is of any interest to anyone...

We're stopping selling direct from GB to ROI, too much hassle, everything will go via NI with taxes paid on goods as it goes over Irish sea. Expect demand for warehouse space in NI to rise in the near future!! There's new admin work to do, for us and the shipping company we use, to move goods from ourselves to ourselves within the UK (NI). Even if EU tariffs are now zero after the 'deal', VAT will need to be paid/reclaimed and we've had to develop our IT system to produce the proper paperwork for the customs declaration and so we can now invoice ourselves for selling to our own fecking branch within the UK (NI).

As stated the Irish border remains pretty much unchanged. UK companies shipping from NI have just had to register for a different Vat/EORI number for use when shipping to the south so companies there can evidence why they are not paying Irish vat on the import. So a bit more IT work needed to put that info on goods specifically going over that border.

Interestingly, the Irish Sea border is basically a 1-way border. The ball-ache is only on goods being moved from GB->NI but there will be no checks/declarations on goods moving from NI->GB. I'm wondering if this is going to change the economy of NI somewhat...

So please correct me if I am wrong. Just trying to understand.

GB -> ROI = Full EU checks, taxes, etc
ROI -> GB = ??? Full EU checks, taxes, etc ???
GB -> NI = No checks. Partial taxes etc
NI -> ROI = No taxes just need to register for VAR/EORI number to put on the shipping
ROI -> NI = No taxes just need to register for VAR/EORI number to put on the shipping

If correct, it does seems like it makes sense to ship to NI and move them south later on land.

Nothing was gained. The only question is how much was lost for the Brits.

To be honest, I think this was expected from day one.

If you are just saying there will be a net loss and so the size of the losses matter most, then I agree. But that isn’t the same as saying there were no (gross) gains. There are things you can do outside of the EU than you can inside it. Not enough to justify it but now that we’re here, those gains are worth thinking about.

Yes. I think everyone agrees Brexit was always going to be a net loss for UK. I haven't had a chance to read any of the details so I really am curious. What did the UK gain from this? The only thing I have seen is retaining the zero tariff/quota trade status.

Yes, we realised that they were going hard brexit a long time ago. This deal is what everyone used to call hard brexit, but they successfully shifted the narrative with the public thanks to the media to this vs no deal.

It does look like a bad deal at this point. But I wouldn't call it as bad as no deal. That would have been even worse. E.g. no zero tariff/quota trades. Full on customs and immigration checks. Maybe even full blocking of UK fish in EU.

 

[Dudu]

Randomly came across this post on twitter just now.. wtf?

 

[One Night Only]

That was created by the EU and is framed in the most favourable way for them. Some of the criteria are ridiculous. “Easy recognition of professional qualifications”. It also doesn’t account for any of the things that are possible outside EU membership.

It is a list to encourage people who exist in the EU currently to appreciate some of the things they have, and it’s a reasonable one, but it isn’t a complete and objective assessment of what was gained and lost.

 

[horsechoker]

Randomly came across this post on twitter just now.. wtf?

 

[Berbasbullet]

Some might be a bit hyperbolic but most of the list still stands and isn’t exhaustive, we have lost an awful lot, I do agree it is a little bit of propaganda on the EU’s part but it is true.

 

[UnrelatedPsuedo]

Some might be a bit hyperbolic but most of the list still stands and isn’t exhaustive, we have lost an awful lot, I do agree it is a little bit of propaganda on the EU’s part but it is true.

The ol’ true Propaganda hey? Nobody will fall for it.

 

[4bars]

If you are just saying there will be a net loss and so the size of the losses matter most, then I agree. But that isn’t the same as saying there were no (gross) gains. There are things you can do outside of the EU than you can inside it. Not enough to justify it but now that we’re here, those gains are worth thinking about.

I am going to ask a question that had been asked here several times. but I am asking you genuinely to you because you are a serious poster. Which are these RELEVANT gross gains of Brexit?

 

[Dudu]

Geo Blocked, but I can gauge it's content based on the name

 

[africanspur]

I am going to ask a question that had been asked here several times. but I am asking you genuinely to you because you are a serious poster. Which are these RELEVANT gross gains of Brexit?

I think peoples' issue around this has always been a complete lack of calibration in how our minds work. Its probably a bit like expecting a dog to understand how a dog thinks or vica verse. It isn't going to work.

Fishing is one for example. There is no doubt that some UK fishermen have been screwed a tad by how fishing has been negotiated over the past decades. For them, that is their most important issue because it is very literally their livelihood. They don't care about erasmus programmes or pet passports or whether a Brit can have their engineering degree recognised in France because that stuff is abstract and alien and pointless to them. For them, the ability for the UK to eventually be able to set a far more UK centric view on the fishing quotas is a net positive.

Of course, for me, as a doctor living in London who barely even touches fish, this topic could not be less important to me. For me, the status quo is more than manageable. For me, I like being able to travel to Europe visa free. I liked the idea of potentially being able to retire in France or Spain because, if I stay alive, I know that option was financially likely to be available to me. I like that my kids would have been able to exchange with their friends and colleagues across Europe. I like the very idea of the EU and what it means.

They'd probably dismiss me as a liberal metropolitan elite though and not care about my opinion and that's probably fair enough because I can't hope to have an understanding of their situation, as much as I may try to sympathise.

For them, a short to medium term general economic hit may be worth what they perceive to be other tangible benefits in their livelihood or indeed what they perceive to be a generally better path for the UK to take. Again, I'd disagree.

 

[JPRouve]

I think peoples' issue around this has always been a complete lack of calibration in how our minds work. Its probably a bit like expecting a dog to understand how a dog thinks or vica verse. It isn't going to work.

Fishing is one for example. There is no doubt that some UK fishermen have been screwed a tad by how fishing has been negotiated over the past decades. For them, that is their most important issue because it is very literally their livelihood. They don't care about erasmus programmes or pet passports or whether a Brit can have their engineering degree recognised in France because that stuff is abstract and alien and pointless to them. For them, the ability for the UK to eventually be able to set a far more UK centric view on the fishing quotas is a net positive.

Of course, for me, as a doctor living in London who barely even touches fish, this topic could not be less important to me. For me, the status quo is more than manageable. For me, I like being able to travel to Europe visa free. I liked the idea of potentially being able to retire in France or Spain because, if I stay alive, I know that option was financially likely to be available to me. I like that my kids would have been able to exchange with their friends and colleagues across Europe. I like the very idea of the EU and what it means.

They'd probably dismiss me as a liberal metropolitan elite though and not care about my opinion and that's probably fair enough because I can't hope to have an understanding of their situation, as much as I may try to sympathise.

For them, a short to medium term general economic hit may be worth what they perceive to be other tangible benefits in their livelihood or indeed what they perceive to be a generally better path for the UK to take. Again, I'd disagree.

Which UK fishermen and how?

 

[The Firestarter]

Feels like something you'd hear on Channel X in GTA.

 

[Buster15]

I think we’ve moved on from hard and soft Brexit a long time ago.

And move on we must. There is no going back. Only forward. It matters not whether the deal is hard or soft or good or bad or anywhere in between. What is important now is for the UK to make the best of it and try to rebuild its tattered reputation in an increasingly global world.

 

[JPRouve]

And move on we must. There is no going back. Only forward. It matters not whether the deal is hard or soft or good or bad or anywhere in between. What is important now is for the UK to make the best of it and try to rebuild its tattered reputation in an increasingly global world.

And if either side as a big issue, it can be fixed area by area. At this point the crucial part was to find an agreement that fixes the irish border issue and to be on the same page when it comes to governance.

 

[Paul the Wolf]

And move on we must. There is no going back. Only forward. It matters not whether the deal is hard or soft or good or bad or anywhere in between. What is important now is for the UK to make the best of it and try to rebuild its tattered reputation in an increasingly global world.

You are right but having voted, now that it has been virtually agreed subject to ratification, have the people who voted for it the slightest idea of what has been agreed.

From what I've seen so far, not many.
There are lots of details to be unveiled but it seems clear from some of the details revealed so far, and I don't mean the table that was quoted earlier, even the celebrated 'tariff-free and quota-free' is not quite as a lot of people seem to interpret it.

PS good luck

 

[Ramshock]

Good that's sorted. I've no doubt that this will work out well for the UK after the next few years, and any deal which keeps trade going without taxes is a good thing.

Didn't want it but it'll be fine.

Its infinitely much worse than what you had. You have been set back a couple of decades of progress to keep tax dodging millionaires happy.
With any luck it will hasten a united Ireland and a free Scotland.

 

[MikeUpNorth]

To be honest, there’s a danger we over analyse the deal. The trade deal just sets the rules of the game, but the game itself hasn’t yet started. It will play out over decades as businesses compete, technology develops and economies realign.

The economic story of the last century was the dominance of the USA and the shaping of global trade in its own image. A lot of people seem to think the next century might be Asia’s... so I’m sure we’ll see Europe and the U.K. start a strategic shift in that direction at some point.