Maybe the EU are waiting for the U.K. to go first and see if you all start dropping with side effects
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Product standards are part of it but yes the subsidies as the unfair advantage point. It does seem rather a moot point as the UK give much less state aid than France for example but the EU are covering their back for all eventualities and leaving as few loopholes as possible which is more important because they have a competitor right on their doorstep.
Having been involved in thousands of negotiations , on a company level, over the years, both sides agree to whatever they feel will suit their needs. It depends who needs it most. It's not a question of being fair or unfair. One side is not going to give an advantage to the other, the intention is for everyone to be as happy and mutually beneficial as possible. If one side is not happy then there won't be an agreement, simple as.
Haha, yeah, that's what I think too. If this were a normal trade negotiation without the baggage and mistrust of recent history, it would be the UK demanding state aid restrictions of the EU, given their large trade surplus and far higher state aid spending (and frequent breaches of existing state aid rules). I mean, EU state aid rules are completely suspended at the moment anyway and all countries are basically underwriting entire industries! It would be crazy if a deal fell apart on this point, but that's Brexit for you.
It wouldn't be crazy, you need to keep in mind that a deal is supposed to last decades. These negotiations are supposed to be relevant on the long term, the current climate is irrelevant to it.
Hopefully they agree on the balon d'or clause.
That's true. I guess from an EU point of view, there's not much risk of market distorting state aid under the Tories (they're currently letting major retailers, airlines and other businesses collapse one by one without stepping in), but what if a left-wing Labour government was elected in 10 years time and wanted to take a more active role in the economy? They presumably want the tools to prevent the UK heading too far to the left economically.
No, they want to protect their backside. It has nothing to do with left or right but simply that companies could try to exploit a particular market with the help of their government, it could easily be done by a tory government that spots a lucrative market. And it's important to point out that this applies to EU member states too, the UK better be smart and don't think that the EU and their members are nice and honest competitors, you need to protect yourselves from the EU too.
I just mean economically left/right in the normal understanding of the words, free-market capitalism (right) vs state-backed industries and intervention in the economy (left).
Yeah but that's a wrong dichotomy in the context of this conversation because things aren't that dogmatic. Here there are basically two questions, "How can I make money on the back of someone else?" and "How can I avoid someone else making money on my back?". It's not a right vs left thing but simply a competition thing.
The scientists have been brilliant everywhere; not so much the politicians. The way the Tories are crowing over here, it is difficult to believe they do not see being first to approve as some kind of arms race.
Will a week or two difference in approving make much difference in the end, anyhow? Could approving so fast even be counterproductive if it reduces trust among the vaccine shy?
I can just imagine the phone call this afternoon between Boris and the EU Commissioner:
Hello EU, hello EU, This is London calling. This is Boris Johnson, Mayor of London, I mean Prime thingy.
Ah. Hello John Claud. How are you today.
It is Ursula Mr Johnson.
Who?
Ursula.
What happened to John Claud or whatever his name is.
Anyway whatever your name is. What are we supposed to be talking about. Have you put your Christmas tree up yet.....
Hello EU, hello EU, This is London calling. This is Boris Johnson, Mayor of London, I mean Prime thingy.
Ah. Hello John Claud. How are you today.
It is Ursula Mr Johnson.
Who?
Ursula.
What happened to John Claud or whatever his name is.
Anyway whatever your name is. What are we supposed to be talking about. Have you put your Christmas tree up yet.....
This feels like its going down to a penalty shootout.
I hope BoJo makes such a mess of it that we accidentally agree to rejoin the EU
In France based on what I understand it will take months to even vaccinate the groups that have been targeted as priorities and the first group is currently isolated in care homes. So no, a week or two shouldn't make a massive difference. And your second point is important, hopefully people don't lose trust when they continuously hear that everything has been done at an incredible speed, some things shouldn't be said.
Its a bit like Rashford being lectured by Jimmy Saville on child safety this state subsidy issue isn't it? I mean the biggest state subsidies are agri/business subsidies and the EU has fought against reforming those for decades.
I don't think frost and barnier would have issued a joint statement if they didn't feel a deal was almost certain.. (the blame game would be well and truly underway already)
Suspect its more about the optics of letting both sides claim they won concessions
Wouldnt be surprised if there is some off the record agreements about any independence referendum in Scotland where it probably suits both sides for the eu to remain neutral at least on the record
Still wouldnt rule out boris dropping the ball at the last minute and trying to blame the fumble on ulrika van der kraut or some other stupid name
What time is this phone call with boris and ursula supposed to happen today?
It's rumoured that talks will be suspended during our game. A CM made up of Fred and McT is simply too creative and classy not to watch. It's the football equivalent of watching michelangelo painting the Sistine Chapel with mozart playing music
Then why hasn't the UK accept the level playing field clause?
In that case talks can continue
Fred's not playing today
That's what Cummings role was at the start of the pandemic, politics over scientific advice, influencing sage meetings. Wouldn't surprise me if they choose a different sociopath to oversee the next stages.
Thank you dear leader.
Don't be like that.
Like most of us, you have terrible politicians who give a bad name to everyone directly or indirectly linked to them. Now the UK have a lot of extremely competent scientists but these people are seemingly sometimes ignored by politicians when the latters think that they can have some electoral gains if they follow crazy scientists.
Ha ha! Apologies.Don't be like that.
Like most of us, you have terrible politicians who give a bad name to everyone directly or indirectly linked to them. Now the UK have a lot of extremely competent scientists but these people are seemingly sometimes ignored by politicians when the latters think that they can have some electoral gains if they follow crazy scientists.
But you can't help be cynical with our dodgy government. From influencing sage to awarding massive covid contracts worth billions to Tory friends and donors.
They pressure scientists for politically beneficial decisions. Even Fauci over in the USA let slip that the UK may have rushed the approval process, before he backtracked.
Isn't the internal market bill due back to the commons on Monday (with the eu stance that if that passes talks are over)
They would presumably need to finalise details Sunday/ Monday afternoon... boris and ursula agree via a phone call in the early evening and then pull the vote ... otherwise presumably around 9pm they vote the internal market bill through and the deal / talks are dead.
And an eerie silence reigned in Brexitthreadland.
If you listen closely you can hear all those hedge fund managers licking their lips.
Just heard that the Irish PM saying that he is optimistic that a trade deal will be done because it is over 95% agreed.
In that case and assuming that the remaining issues cannot be agreed, is it not possible that a deal can be approved on the basis of the 95%, and the outstanding issues resolved in the new year?
In that case and assuming that the remaining issues cannot be agreed, is it not possible that a deal can be approved on the basis of the 95%, and the outstanding issues resolved in the new year?
No, it's not possible because in reality the 5% are linked to the 95%. For example, how can you have a deal in place without the governance of said deal legally settled?
Ok. Understood and I probably expected that would be the case.
In theory governance should be easy to agree if both sides intend to stick to the agreement
Provided people just can't make up complaints and put retaliation in place on a whim without a strong case then as it should be a non issue... unless boris and pals intend to shit all over the agreement (which wouldnt shock me)
In theory everything is easy to agree, in practice nothing is.
Edit: By that I mean that in theory if you decide to only take into account optimist projections then it's easy to agree on something like governance. But the reality is that you do not and shouldn't only take into account optimist projections, when you are negotiating for a long term agreement you need to protect your long term interests against unforseen changes and that's when things become far from easy for both sides.
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https://www.itv.com/news/2020-12-06/the-12-reasonable-worst-case-outcomes-if-brexit-talks-collapse
Boris might not last till summer if even half thats true
Boris might not last till summer if even half thats true
Wonder if Johnson will get some deal and it will be deemed a success. Gets a victory lap all this week + plus vaccines being rolled out.