Four years since the vote, four years to move from chanting "taking back control" to chanting "taking back control". At that pace I wouldn't expect any upside in this century.
Brexited | the worst threads live the longest
- Thread starter Silva
- Start date
Some Brexiteers talk as if the UK is a country all others will be lining up to do trade deals with under any circumstances and, on the flip side, some others, especially on here, talk as if the UK, with the world's 6th largest economy, is essentially Afghanistan.
The point for me is that I love the EU, what it represents and the opportunities it offers to so many people, including in the UK. But that doesn't mean that, as sad as I'll be to leave, the UK won't be able to sign other trade deals or will get shafted on every one. Lots of countries sign trade deals with countries and blocs far larger than them (Australia and NZ for instance) without handing over the keys to their countries or bending over non-stop.
On top of that, from a purely economic point of view. Even if we get our trade deals with the USA, Canada, Mexico, Mercosur, ASEAN, Japan, Korea, Aus, NZ, EAEU (unlikely with all of them of course but not as impossible as people think), yada yada, I struggle to see how this will offset the negatives of more bumpy trade with the EU, especially in the short-medium term.
I'll finish with..and await the inevitable onslaught. While I personally disagree with it (and from a selfish perspective bemoan the lost opportunities my kids and their kids will have in the future), I can kind of understand some frustrations from the Brexit negotiators regarding FoM. I know the EU is based on free movement and I know the UK is in a unique position etc etc. It is of course possible though to sign a FTA without free movement (ie almost all other FTAs in the world).
The point for me is that I love the EU, what it represents and the opportunities it offers to so many people, including in the UK. But that doesn't mean that, as sad as I'll be to leave, the UK won't be able to sign other trade deals or will get shafted on every one. Lots of countries sign trade deals with countries and blocs far larger than them (Australia and NZ for instance) without handing over the keys to their countries or bending over non-stop.
On top of that, from a purely economic point of view. Even if we get our trade deals with the USA, Canada, Mexico, Mercosur, ASEAN, Japan, Korea, Aus, NZ, EAEU (unlikely with all of them of course but not as impossible as people think), yada yada, I struggle to see how this will offset the negatives of more bumpy trade with the EU, especially in the short-medium term.
I'll finish with..and await the inevitable onslaught. While I personally disagree with it (and from a selfish perspective bemoan the lost opportunities my kids and their kids will have in the future), I can kind of understand some frustrations from the Brexit negotiators regarding FoM. I know the EU is based on free movement and I know the UK is in a unique position etc etc. It is of course possible though to sign a FTA without free movement (ie almost all other FTAs in the world).
I may be reading too much but to me it seems that you are caricaturing the non-brexiteers side. No one suggested that the UK wouldn't get deals, what people have said is that against almost all the markets that you mentioned the UK are in a defavorable position either because the UK doesn't produce something that these countries need/want or because these markets are much larger than the UK and that's in response to the premise of Brexit which have been that the UK would be in a better negotiating position and would get better deals.
Australia and NZ is a pretty weird example too. I mean, they're right beside each other, and completely isolated from most other countries. Obviously they'll strike favourable trade deals. They're also probably one of the closest examples in the world to the Uk and Ireland relationship (minus the land border) and instead of trying to completely bollock that up in recent years, Australia have tried to integrate it even further (e.g. both countries closing borders except to each other during COVID-19).
It's almost as if... the best trade deals to make... are with the countries closest to you. How quaint.
It's almost as if... the best trade deals to make... are with the countries closest to you. How quaint.
Similar arguments to the above have been said to me in real life (and I've read similar stuff on here, admittedly from the same 1 or 2 posters) over the years as well. As time has gone on, I've started to find them equally as annoying as the caricatured (but at times accurate) Brexit slogans of take back control or the world will be queueing up to deal with the UK on UK terms.
There are only 3 countries with economies which are hugely more significant than the UK's (and one bloc).
I think this is what I mean though. I don't think the UK will be in a better negotiating position than these other countries at all. But I also don't think that the UK produces nothing that these countries want/ all these other countries have such larger economies than the UK and therefore don't really think that the UK will be going, begging as some seem to think/want, to do trade deals with other countries. Not least because free movement, a big factor in what many Brexiteers were upset by (whether they acknowledge it or not) is not a factor in most FTAs signed around the world.
I look around at Australia and NZ for instance at their FTAs and who they've signed them with and certainly it seems these much smaller economies have managed to sign deals without their citizens worrying too much about the Malaysians or Japanese dominating them. Or Singapore for instance, which has managed it and with a very wide range of countries as well.
Of course, the question should be was leaving the EU worth it, even for these other potential deals? And I would always say absolutely not, for so so many reasons.
But then I feel like you've said I'm caricaturing what some say about the situation, only to then basically say exactly that (all deals will be with countries that either don't really want what the UK is offering or have significantly larger markets than in the UK).
You've completely misunderstood what I've said, which I feel makes the sarcastic tone even more misplaced.
I'm saying that Australia and NZ have struck trade deals with a wide variety of countries, despite having significantly smaller economies and populations than most of those countries (I have in fact listed those countries with which Australia has a trade deal a couple of pages back, as an example of how they have clearly prioritised trade with 'local' countries, a very relative term for Australia).
Australia has the USA, Japan, Korea, China for instance. New Zealand HK, Malaysia, Thailand, China, Singapore, Chile. Amongst others, I've just plucked the deals for countries which have larger economies.
‘Covid makes Brexit make sense’ is such an insane viewpoint.
It wouldn’t make sense if we had seen a top 10 global Covid response. The fact that we’re bottom 5 makes your suggestion all the stranger.
You’re sitting in a burning building suggesting that in future, this fire could come in handy.
This is so true.
I also find the dislike many Brexiteers have for the EU as an institution incredibly distasteful. So many of them want the EU to fall, which you'd imagine would only happen in circumstances that would make a lot of peoples' lives so much worse.
Its a little like going through a breakup and wanting your ex to lose their job and end up homeless so you can feel vindicated in your decision.
Horrible stuff.
@africanspur the thing is I don't know if it's on purpose or just an omission but the idea isn't about "signing deals", it's about signing deals that are "more favorable to the UK". That distinction is important that's where you are caricaturing the non-brexiteers position and forgetting that it's the point made by brexiteers, in particular in this thread. Rare are the countries that do not have trade deals, the point was and has always been a comparison between your position in the negotiation table when you are members of a very large market and when you are alone, even smaller markets have less reasons to concede things, in particular the ones that are at the other side of the globe and don't trade that much goods with you.
I'm not really sure I understand your point. What was on purpose or by omission?
My point is that because of stupid opinions put forward by those on the Brexit side, many of us on the other side have resorted to making at times similarly stupid arguments and becoming more entrenched in this never ending cycle of silliness where one side talks as if the UK is the promised land and everyone will be begging to get some marmite and cheddar and the other as if the UK is a backwater that's about to start firing up the coal mines, putting kids back in workhouses, destroying all worker's rights and flying around the world with a bowl begging for any and all trade deals available.
Of course, the reality, as sad as it still is for me, is not going to be either of these 2 extremes. And yes of course larger blocks have more power but that doesn't mean that smaller economies, especially ones which are still as large as the UK's, will be signing a lot of unfavourable trade deals.
And this has literally nothing to do with the UK. I'd be saying the same if it was France, Germany, Italy, Spain, Netherlands, Mexico, Canada or Israel.
I also appreciate that these hardened opinions come from the instrangience of many people who voted for Brexit.
Fair enough I've misunderstood, but the way you worded it was pretty misleading and made it sound like you were discussing the deal between those two countries and not the deals those two countries had with other countries!
I also don't really agree. Australia is so different from the UK in terms of location, size, what it manufactures and trades, it's extremely difficult to try and make a reasoned comparison between the two. You can keep saying the UK is the 6th largest economy in the world all you want but the fact is we've no idea how much of that is based on their ties with the EU over the last 50 years. I don't think the UK will suddenly go from an economic powerhouse to nothingness but the effects will still be profound, trade deals with far away countries or not.
The problem for me is that you are basically equating views that have been officially used by Ukip and Tory politicians with anecdotal points that may have been made on twitter or in a pub. That seems disingenuous.
Fair enough. It was worded slightly awkwardly, that's true.
I'm not trying to make a direct comparison and of course, countries adapt to their circumstances. Australia's economy is of course geared to take into account their distance from others and their vast mineral wealth etc as well, as well as being one of two English native language countries in the far East I guess. At some point, most likely in decades sadly, I imagine the UK economy will adapt to the shock of our decision too. My point is that it is possible to strike deals with larger blocs and countries without going as a beggar or selling off everything in the country. Canada managed it with the EU (as did Mexico). Israel managed it with Canada. NZ managed it with Japan. Australia managed it with USA. Etc etc.
I'm stating it because its a fact, not a dream I've told myself to make myself feel better. And the economy is so large that even if you start knocking off large chunks of GDP, it doesn't actually immediately make a huge difference to that ranking. Take off 10%, 7th. 20%, 7th. 30%, 8th. Even if you suddenly wiped off half of the UK's GDP overnight, it would still be the 14th largest economy in the world. [Yes I know that's not how economics work but you get my point].
It by no means that countries will be desperate to deal. It doesn't mean that it wasn't much better to stay in the EU (especially as I believe the EU will continue to sign many excellent trade deals as time goes on). But it does mean that the UK is still a country of 65 million people, with a very large economy.
I totally agree that the effects will be profound regardless of what deals we strike, especially in the short-medium term. Enough to make me consider returning to Australia for life.
How am I equating the two? I literally said that they are arguments made by people I know/ by some people on here. Just as I have said on here in the past some of the ridiculous arguments Brexiteers have said to me as well.
I never claimed that they were opinions put forward by prominent politicians or figures or that the views have similar impacts on the public discourse in the UK.
And the main point continues to be missed ad infinitum - it's not signing deals with far distant countries that is going to help the UK or removing themselves from the customs union with the countries on their doorstep which they do 50% of their trade. Jesus wept!
Has anyone on this thread in the last few pages really missed this point?
Yes because without having a free trade deal with the EU and not being in the CU with them basically means the UK is in deep trouble. A deal with Australia or Japan is going to make very little difference.
The Tory Trade Machine is gathering pace. They’re framing it as cold hard cash. Deals! Savings! Power! Sovereignty! Control!
There’s a reason why.
They don’t want anyone to focus on trading standards. That’s what will take a bigger hit. We may get lots of cheaper things. We may pay about the same.
But if anyone is brave enough to suggest that this craven mess of Tories is going to get the UK a better standard of products, flying solo... They’re monumentally stupid.
Post Brexit, environmental, animal welfare, consumer protections... they’re all going to be rolled back. The enrichment program will continue at pace.
They don’t give a Fcuk about people, because they make enough money to buy a better quality product. Working Class Britons simply won’t be able to.
Edit : Obviously the unstated point is that the EU protects people far better than the Tories will.
But nobody other than Maticmaker has been arguing about this particular point at all?
You did in the bolded parts and it was also visible in your previous posts. When you take both positions that come from different contexts, one being official while the other is anecdotal, then in my opinion you are being disingenuous because you are blurring the lines. That's without even taking into account my previous point about deals where people rarely make the claim that the UK won't have any deals but argue agains the Brexit positions that claims that the UK will have far better deals and were handicapped by EU treaties, which was an official position for Brexit politicians.
Edit: To be clear, on one side you have widely accepted brexit arguments and on the other side not widely accepted anti-brexit arguments.
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That isn't equating the two though, in a statement where equating the two is suggesting that random posters on this thread or Bob from work has as much impact as Farage. There are no blurred lines, I am responding solely to arguments made by people in my own life and on this thread, not Farage or JRM. That is a whole other matter and discussion.
And again, while people may not regularly claim the UK will not be able to make any deals at all, it is not a minority opinion that the UK will be getting screwed on any and all trade deals they're attempting to sign at the moment.
Which is the thing, I never once mentioned politicians in my posts. Perhaps my fault with clunky wording again. When I said brexiteers, I meant normal people, not politicians.
Of course the politician positions were despicable, especially as the EU signs more and more of these FTA itself.
And even I haven't been arguing that!
PS. I think Paul could start an argument in an empty house, but he is consistent .... he sees things through the glass not only half empty, but completely empty viewpoint, he clear believes that the EU is so pi **ed off with the UK, it does not want to deal with the UK at all post Brexit, in fact until hell freezes over, if Paul had his way.
That’s a balanced viewpoint but sadly you still end up (rightly) at the conclusion that the best case is essentially to minimise losses rather than improve on our former position as an EU member.
The two specific areas of concern I have are that: (1) the current UK government is already proven to be incompetent and is also simultaneously at war with the civil service and (2) many people in or associated with the current government have strong ideological ties to the US and might be only to willing to make concessions to bring us closer to the US model.
Totally agree on all there. Any potential upsides to Brexit (and they are very very theoretical) could only be seen in literally decades from now imo. Until this potential hypothetical, we're just minimising the damage we've done from this ridiculous decision.
My main hope to your second point is that while some in the government may lean that way, the population at a whole is still a European one when it comes to general opinions towards leave, worker's rights and the environment etc. While we sadly lean more the American way than other European countries imo, I think it would probably be electoral suicide to start shifting us more in that direction.
Though perhaps they'd do it so slowly that people wouldn't notice/care, who knows? They've already done a lot of other terrible stuff.
Its an insane world we live in...haven't you noticed?
Covid is a world wide 'event' and as one famous past UK PM remarked when asked what had shaped his policies " Events dear boy...Events'.
We'll be alright because we're British and we've got the 5th biggest economy in the world, brave new world etc etc etc, we'll get deals with whoever, we've now got control etc etc etc.
It's nonsense, you've committed economic suicide and I don't see how you're going to get out of it. Not because I want the UK to suffer, I just don't see what the solution is
Would expect that the EU are happy in one way that the UK have left, but they would have preferred to continue the trade relationship in the same way.
But as I've said until next year I can't prove that I'm not exaggerating.
There are so many things that are going to change, I've only touched on the trade aspect of it, and even then only scratched the surface, because I've spent most of my life dealing with international trade. It's scary how people just casually dismiss the problems the UK have brought upon themselves.
I have no idea but CAPSLOCK
Having the 5th biggest economy counts for something, but its not the be all and end all; control over what and how we trade is however important, something we would never have achieved staying in a political union bent on establishing a United States of Europe. Had the UK joined the euro zone, well maybe things would have been different, but we will never know now!
One thing Paul you have always been right about is that the EU wont give us the same deal as we had as a member and hence anything we do get may well be worse, but in some areas it might be better (its OK I will go and wash my mouth out after that). However the EU wont get the same deal from us either, whilst on balance we may lose more than them, the risk is, and always has been, that we can make up for this, over time, with new trade deals struck elsewhere. Entering the old Common Market was also a gamble, so leaving it will be a gamble, but as I've said in an earlier post "the times they are a changing' and standing still, which is essentially what was happening to us and the EU is not an option.
With the reluctant UK gone, the EU will be able to move more quickly to its USE goal and we will have to forge new links, or revive old ones elsewhere. For both of us, the post Covid world, as well as the climate change implications will have major consequences for our respective economies. It may even be possible a new format of trading block might be established, without political interference, e.g. with Ireland, England, Scotland and Wales forming a new kind of UK block for trading purposes,; also the original eight EU countries reforming around the Treaty of Rome and the Southern European Countries forming a composite trading block based on tourism and specialist forms of Agriculture.
The honest truth is nobody knows, with Trump in the Whitehouse and China having its 50 year world trade domination plans rumbled, anything can happen and most likely will.
Seriously? I take it you mean Northern Ireland, or are you planning on taking back control of the Republic? Delusional bollocks anyway.
If being the 5th biggest economy counted for anything brexiteers wouldn't complain about having to sit around a table with 27 other countries and find common grounds, after all the UK were the second biggest market in that group.
Well to be fair, Take Back Control actually makes more sense if it means trying to take back control of former Empire countries. It's probably what most Brexiteers want anyway.
Nothing new. It’s standard Brexiteer discourse to dream up fanciful future scenarios as the short to medium term reality looks so rocky. Even if you think the EU might break up in the future, why be the guinea pig and walk out on the other 27 in a time of such uncertainty? It’s like having kids and a mortgage and then telling your boss to eff off without having a new job lined up.
The old Common market and now the EU with more members, which was the intention, is basically the same principle as it was back in the 50s 60s and 70s. FoM has always existed but the way the British media fool the people as if it's something new, the USE is a another scaremongering tactic, an EU army, anonymous EU bureaucrats telling everyone what to do. Dr Goebbels, I mean Dominic Cummings did a very good job, mention immigants, British sense of superiority and the British public are easy meat.
Worked for getting Johnson elected too. Remember we were told Brexit was supposed to be a protest vote against the government , they protested so much they gave the government an even bigger majority.
Entering the EC (EEC for the sake of Edward Heath) was a saviour for the UK, and they'd been desperately trying to join for years, you know that.
Another false impression given to the British public is trading with other nations, it's presented as if there is virtually no trade with other countries outside the EU . The UK 's biggest trading partner is already the USA, the UK will be struggling to sell as much as they did pre-Brexit, nevermind sell more .
It's highly unlikely the percentages of trade will vary that much from next year onwards. The Uk will still sell around 40-50% of its exports to the EU and will import around 60% of it's needs from the EU.
The only difference being, it will be more expensive, more difficult, more delays, more work and more hassle.
FTA's and CU's are to make trading more easy, remove barriers and reduce costs, the UK have torn them all up and are having to start again, eventually getting back to where they were in 'x' years time.
Every country's economy is based on their needs and adaptation to their geographical position.. The UK, whether they like it or not, are off the coast of continental Europe.
By the time the UK leave the transition period Trump may or not be in the White House, but which one is best for the UK? Trump or whoever is POTUS will be looking after the USA no-one else. China have been a thorn for many years and have a lot of experience dealing with them.
@Maticmaker
Do you not think that impacting trade with by far our closest neighbour and biggest trading partner (as well as a bloc that is likely to remain one of the 3 biggest markets in the world for the foreseeable future, regardless of what else happens) for the only theoretical potential upsides of trade deals with countries which are far away and more difficult ultimately to import and export from, seems like a decision which is taking a huge risk for an only very theoretical (and long long term) gain?
Especially as, with time going on, the EU is itself in negotiations with more and more trade blocs itself anyway (ie Mercosur)?
Do you not think that impacting trade with by far our closest neighbour and biggest trading partner (as well as a bloc that is likely to remain one of the 3 biggest markets in the world for the foreseeable future, regardless of what else happens) for the only theoretical potential upsides of trade deals with countries which are far away and more difficult ultimately to import and export from, seems like a decision which is taking a huge risk for an only very theoretical (and long long term) gain?
Especially as, with time going on, the EU is itself in negotiations with more and more trade blocs itself anyway (ie Mercosur)?
I think what that point is kind of ignoring is that the pressure to strike a deal will be quite asymmetrical. Like usually (developed) countries have arrived at their status quo by a gradual development towards some equilibrium. New trade deals are somewhat optional: you'd rather have them, but if you don't like what's on the table you can always take a step back and just keep going on as before, countries take their sweet time and secrecy before they reach an agreement, even if it's built on an already existing relationships. I mean look at TTIP for example, something like that has been discussed for thirty years, at first glance one would assume to be an absolute no-brainer to get an agreement done, yet here we are in 2020 without it.
Now imagine post-Brexit UK entering the stage, trying to start from scratch, possibly with a recession on their backs and trade being a stick for Labour to beat the Tories with. Do you see them negotiating patiently?
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Yes it will be an asymmetrical pressure but I don't see that this means the UK will just sign whatever it is offered. Nor is it unusual for trade talks to hit snags and be protracted, this is totally normal.
And yes, I agree that Brexit makes this a totally unique situation.
TTIP is not a no brainer at all. While they may appear roughly similar, the cultures in the EU and USA, work practices etc are vastly different. That is an incredibly difficult deal to pass and always has been imo, not just on the American side, when you get idiots like Trump popping up but also on the EU side, with 28 states and different aims and red lines in the negotiations.
The UK will almost certainly be in recession, with Covid and Brexit double hits. Of course, almost the entirety of the global economy will retract this year though so its not exactly a unique situation.
And to clarify, so you are saying the UK will end up getting shafted by all (or most) when negotiating its deals?
@africanspur
Because of the dynamic mentioned above I expect most countries to try and take their bite rather than offer the UK favourable terms. But I'm no expert in international trade, so I won't pretend to be certain or able to quantify how far the UK might be exploitable.
Because of the dynamic mentioned above I expect most countries to try and take their bite rather than offer the UK favourable terms. But I'm no expert in international trade, so I won't pretend to be certain or able to quantify how far the UK might be exploitable.