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Do you think there will be a Deal or No Deal?

  • Total voters
    194
  • Poll closed .
africanspur said:
And like I said, whatever is signed by this December is only the end of the beginning really. Deal/ no deal, it almost doesn't matter. The relationship will continue to evolve.
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This is all very true in essence, but do you think anything of any worth will be signed by December, because I don't, or whatever is signed won't be worth the paper its written on, at least for very long?

However; there is so much going on 'off stage' both for the EU and the UK that neither side will want to rock the boat too much and I suspect things will continue pretty much as they are, unless one or other of the parties wants to change something rapidly and the only thing likely to have urgency is the fishing issues. The most likely deal being a one year, or maybe two, where things move slowly to a position where all EU states with an interest, will finish up negotiating for their own specific needs with the UK, but for the sake of seeming EU unity it will be under the guise of a post Brexit UK/EU Fisheries deal.

All the internal markets affected are pretty clearly marked/set out already and unless something, or some country wants to change things rapidly, be it via tariffs or other 'changes' much will continue as before. We are currently aligned with EU Rules and Regs, on most things, the only nod to a real change is likely to be some border issues, where a mish-mash compromise will be found and continued with, until some clever sod finds a way of making a few pounds/euros by smuggling or some such racket. Money matters will be sorted as now, very quietly and since there are no UK MEPS there to rock the boat, the EU's formidable and much vaunted internal Audit processes will make sure nobody knows nothing they shouldn't, primarily because there is nothing to see!

With Covid-19 still raging in the undergrowth in most Countries and desperate lockdown escape plans being hatched to rescue the economies of virtually every country in Europe (whether part of the EU or not) within each country, not within the EU, then now is not a good time to make waves. Each of the three main leaders, Merkel, Macron and Johnson are facing their own problems and you would think will want to keep their heads down, although if their personal positions become untenable, then one or more of them might want to light the blue touch paper to Brexit, as a means of creating a smoke screen.

Hence the new 'No deal' is 'No change', at least not yet and Caf members can go on happily postulating ideas on Brexit, till the cows come home....oh Joy!
 
Maticmaker said:
Hence the new 'No deal' is 'No change', at least not yet and Caf members can go on happily postulating ideas on Brexit, till the cows come home....oh Joy!
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Even if the UK signed a fully comprehensive trade deal with both the EU and the USA by December, which of course they won't, and probably not for many years, if at all , I guarantee the UK will notice a massive difference come January and regrets will soon be in evidence. By this time next year , well..
PS Fish no-one really cares about in the either the UK nor the EU .
The UK are still sleepwalking.
 
Paul the Wolf said:
Even if the UK signed a fully comprehensive trade deal with both the EU and the USA by December, which of course they won't, and probably not for many years, if at all , I guarantee the UK will notice a massive difference come January and regrets will soon be in evidence. By this time next year , well..
PS Fish no-one really cares about in the either the UK nor the EU .
The UK are still sleepwalking.
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Wishful thinking Paul... if only we hadn't missed that sitter!

I doubt there will be anything signed anywhere just now, other fish to fry (excuse the pun). Come 1st of January 2021 things will continue as they are, no deals changed, companies still trading as before, maybe one or two unmanned 'cardboard cut out' border posts established (if they are cardboard and unmanned, it wont matter if they get blown up!) for effect.

Movement if any, depends who loses their nerve first, my betting is its Macron and it will be French (not EU) fishing rights that he will champion, but maybe not, maybe Boris will risk the wrath of what's left of the UK fishing industry and agree to some 2 year moratorium on fishing matters, or maybe Merkel will risk her dwindling influence in Germany and top up the EU budget herself!

The UK will be out of the EU and technically able to do what it likes and there will be great celebrations in Leave areas, but will things change that much, very much doubt it, certainly not until Covid-19 is under some sort of control and by then there will be a new 'normal' anyway, which surprisingly may favour a Brexit scenario?
 
Maticmaker said:
This is all very true in essence, but do you think anything of any worth will be signed by December, because I don't, or whatever is signed won't be worth the paper its written on, at least for very long?
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I think the next few months are basically trying to find an acceptable name for an extension that isn't called an extension
Initial trading relationship for example
 
sun_tzu said:
I think the next few months are basically trying to find an acceptable name for an extension that isn't called an extension
Initial trading relationship for example
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Exactly no one can accept an actual 'extension' as that includes the UK still paying into EU coffers and law taking not law making. It will, I suspect be more like a 'mexican standoff', each daring the other to make the first move, but with little actual change to trade/transport/ security/ etc. itself, and behind closed doors there will be a lot of horse-trading but only with trusted participants, who will not go running to the press (see how long that lasts!).

The moderating influence on Brexit actions will be Covid-19, and all countries whether in the EU or not, are subject to its moderating influences.
 
Maticmaker said:
Wishful thinking Paul... if only we hadn't missed that sitter!

I doubt there will be anything signed anywhere just now, other fish to fry (excuse the pun). Come 1st of January 2021 things will continue as they are, no deals changed, companies still trading as before, maybe one or two unmanned 'cardboard cut out' border posts established (if they are cardboard and unmanned, it wont matter if they get blown up!) for effect.

Movement if any, depends who loses their nerve first, my betting is its Macron and it will be French (not EU) fishing rights that he will champion, but maybe not, maybe Boris will risk the wrath of what's left of the UK fishing industry and agree to some 2 year moratorium on fishing matters, or maybe Merkel will risk her dwindling influence in Germany and top up the EU budget herself!

The UK will be out of the EU and technically able to do what it likes and there will be great celebrations in Leave areas, but will things change that much, very much doubt it, certainly not until Covid-19 is under some sort of control and by then there will be a new 'normal' anyway, which surprisingly may favour a Brexit scenario?
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Countries will still be trading but the customs, VAT, duties, delays and documentation will change enormously whatever trade deals are signed or not signed. The EU have already told the Uk that the customs checks will be in place, not talking just about the Irish Border but the little matter of the Channel. Uk companies are not ready - mainly because they have no idea what's going to happen and how many extra staff they will have to employ, will it be viable etc etc.

Fish is hardly mentioned apart from a few angry fisherman, it's just symbolic and maybe we'll go back to the cod wars of the 60s and 70s, should be fun. Will be prawn and mackerel wars this time.

You look at most British media and it's "we'll be alright because we're British" attitude and things will hardly change, only for the better - think there's going to a sudden realisation that they've made the biggest error they could have short of declaring war on Trump.
 
africanspur said:
Australia is already seeing it as it tries to stand up to China and we will soon see it too every time we try to stand up to China/ USA.
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#scottyfrommarketing is far more interested in sucking Trump's cock even if playing the yellow peril card also appeals to him and his base.
 
Paul the Wolf said:
There is virtually no documentation shipping between EU countries, as I said, a sudden realisation will come very soon. All very time consuming and costly - hope it's worth it
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That is true Paul at the moment, but following the Covid-19 pandemic with currently EU unable to agree common lockdown/lockdown release matters, that might all change. The new post Covid-19 'norm' is likely to see 'proof of compliance' or 'free from Covid', or 'Covid protected' etc. documentation all over the world, it wont just be people but also livestock and other means by which Covid is known to travel/piggy-back on, that will be affected, similarly free movement of people is likely to take a hit. The free movement of goods and materials will also be affected.

Lets face it individual countries within their own boundaries are currently finding it hard to produce similar Covid measures e.g. in the UK, England, Scotland, Wales and NI all doing their own thing at their own pace, 27 EU countries will find it almost impossible to agree, especially if one country becomes more Covid ravaged than its neighbour.

The differences in economies, health systems , transport, policing (enforcement of civil order) and many other areas in all EU countries are all likely to play out differently in fighting Covid and its aftermath, this will be a massive test of the EU's togetherness, even more than Brexit and with a big hole in the EU budget going forward, might be impossible. For the UK Brexit might well turn out to be a super smart move and at the right time...wouldn't that be a laugh!
 
Maticmaker said:
That is true Paul at the moment, but following the Covid-19 pandemic with currently EU unable to agree common lockdown/lockdown release matters, that might all change. The new post Covid-19 'norm' is likely to see 'proof of compliance' or 'free from Covid', or 'Covid protected' etc. documentation all over the world, it wont just be people but also livestock and other means by which Covid is known to travel/piggy-back on, that will be affected, similarly free movement of people is likely to take a hit. The free movement of goods and materials will also be affected.

Lets face it individual countries within their own boundaries are currently finding it hard to produce similar Covid measures e.g. in the UK, England, Scotland, Wales and NI all doing their own thing at their own pace, 27 EU countries will find it almost impossible to agree, especially if one country becomes more Covid ravaged than its neighbour.

The differences in economies, health systems , transport, policing (enforcement of civil order) and many other areas in all EU countries are all likely to play out differently in fighting Covid and its aftermath, this will be a massive test of the EU's togetherness, even more than Brexit and with a big hole in the EU budget going forward, might be impossible. For the UK Brexit might well turn out to be a super smart move and at the right time...wouldn't that be a laugh!
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# Project Fear
 
sun_tzu said:
I think the next few months are basically trying to find an acceptable name for an extension that isn't called an extension
Initial trading relationship for example
Click to expand...

I wish I was that optimistic. Honestly I can see no indication that the UK wants anything other than a complete break from the EU. In the misguided belief that everyone else will fall over themselves wanting to accept us with open arms.

And the hardliners would not accept anything other than this.
 
Maticmaker said:
That is true Paul at the moment, but following the Covid-19 pandemic with currently EU unable to agree common lockdown/lockdown release matters, that might all change. The new post Covid-19 'norm' is likely to see 'proof of compliance' or 'free from Covid', or 'Covid protected' etc. documentation all over the world, it wont just be people but also livestock and other means by which Covid is known to travel/piggy-back on, that will be affected, similarly free movement of people is likely to take a hit. The free movement of goods and materials will also be affected.

Lets face it individual countries within their own boundaries are currently finding it hard to produce similar Covid measures e.g. in the UK, England, Scotland, Wales and NI all doing their own thing at their own pace, 27 EU countries will find it almost impossible to agree, especially if one country becomes more Covid ravaged than its neighbour.

The differences in economies, health systems , transport, policing (enforcement of civil order) and many other areas in all EU countries are all likely to play out differently in fighting Covid and its aftermath, this will be a massive test of the EU's togetherness, even more than Brexit and with a big hole in the EU budget going forward, might be impossible. For the UK Brexit might well turn out to be a super smart move and at the right time...wouldn't that be a laugh!
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Of course there will be problems with Covid as there has been and will be for some time to come. Thus on top of this the UK are also leaving the transitional period at exactly the worst time imaginable.

The problem is that the free movement of goods and people will end forever (or until the UK rejoins) with or without Covid at the end of the year. Whatever happens with Covid the UK cannot ship what they like to the EU.
You said the Uk can technically do what they like from next year- if they stay as an island isolated from the rest of the world they can - if they want to trade and interact with the rest of the world including or excluding the EU, they can't. Whatever they export to whichever country, in or outside the EU, they have to comply with the regulations of the country they are exporting to.

I fear the shock will be too much for some.
 
Paul the Wolf said:
You said the Uk can technically do what they like from next year- if they stay as an island isolated from the rest of the world they can - if they want to trade and interact with the rest of the world including or excluding the EU, they can't. Whatever they export to whichever country, in or outside the EU, they have to comply with the regulations of the country they are exporting to.
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Yes of course there will be deals of varying kinds, undertaken with varying countries, the difference is the UK's deals will be tailored to our needs, not to 27 other countries.

There will be 'easy' deals where what we want or we supply dovetails nicely with what others want and/or can supply to or from us, and there will be tough deals' where to get what we want we have to give more, etc. Trade is trade, if the product or service offered, or on offer, meets the needs of the supplier/recipient, and the price is right, deals will be done, they always have been. Yes there will be a 'swings and roundabouts' situation at times.

The UK has a large market to offer, not as big as the EU, but then again not all EU countries benefit from all EU deals,' made to measure' or as Boris likes to say 'oven ready' deals are what count, having control of the tape measure is key to that and we will have that control.

Its a road to a brand new world for UK trade and we are driving the bus ourselves.
 
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Maticmaker said:
Yes of course there will be deals of varying kinds, undertaken with varying countries, the difference is the UK's deals will be tailored to our needs, not to 27 other countries.
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actually our WTO terms (tariff quotas) we propose have to be accepted by a lot more than 27 countries but hey I'm sure putin isnt the kind of person to remember the years and years we objected to Russia's terms ... oops hes already objected hasnt he https://mlexmarketinsight.com/insig...blocks-uks-post-brexit-tariff-proposal-at-wto
 
Maticmaker said:
Yes of course there will be deals of varying kinds, undertaken with varying countries, the difference is the UK's deals will be tailored to our needs, not to 27 other countries.

There will be 'easy' deals where what we want or we supply dovetails nicely with what others want and/or can supply to or from us, and there will be tough deals' where to get what we want we have to give more, etc. Trade is trade, if the product or service offered, or on offer, meets the needs of the supplier/recipient, and the price is right, deals will be done, they always have been. Yes there will be a 'swings and roundabouts' situation at times.

The UK has a large market to offer, not as big as the EU, but then again not all EU countries benefit from all EU deals,' made to measure' or as Boris likes to say 'oven ready' deals are what count, having control of the tape measure is key to that and we will have that control.

Its a road to a brand new world for UK trade and we are driving the bus ourselves.
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I think I've had this discussion with the original Brexiters in this thread a dozen times already. Deals are one thing, the only one of significance the UK has so far is with Switzerland which would happen if you were in the EU, the NFU or the W - they want your gold and jewellery.
No-one knows what standards the UK will have, no UK negotiators have any experience in negotiating (Liz Truss is in charge!! Fox was bad enough) and the production of your major export, cars, is owned by non-UK companies and when you leave the EU the price will jump by 10% and you sold lots to the US and China, which you weren't prevented from doing , who are not in the EU and unlikely to buy more than they have been doing°

The production of whatever you produce will have to meet the standards of the country you are exporting to, eg if you export to Australia, it's Australia's standards you have to produce to, including the packaging,.
Remembering one of the Brexiter arguments, we're fed up having to produce to EU standards, well have we got news for you.

But as I've said all along this is not the main problem, it's the delays, documentation, miles more bureaucracy ironically, it was all so simple being in the EU. But it's only when next year comes around that people will realise the mistake they made, because no-one has listened to the warnings and it's still "project fear" untli it becomes "project what the hell have we done" .
 
sun_tzu said:
actually our WTO terms (tariff quotas) we propose have to be accepted by a lot more than 27 countries but hey I'm sure putin isnt the kind of person to remember the years and years we objected to Russia's terms ... oops hes already objected hasnt he https://mlexmarketinsight.com/insig...blocks-uks-post-brexit-tariff-proposal-at-wto
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Even outside of WTO, it's wrong to claim that deals will be tailored for the UK, these aren't UK's deal they are bilateral deals and the larger market seating around the table will be the one driving negotiations, if the UK negotiate with the EU, China, India or the US, it's not the UK who will dictate the terms of deals.
 
sun_tzu said:
actually our WTO terms (tariff quotas) we propose have to be accepted by a lot more than 27 countries
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Yes of course and if they want to trade with us they will, its called negotiation; hopefully Dominic Cummings will have sorted out the Civil Service Mandarins and we will get some that know what they are doing, if not then admittedly in certain matters it could be tricky.
 
Paul the Wolf said:
I think I've had this discussion with the original Brexiters in this thread a dozen times already.
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Yes Paul I've read most of it myself, you are still only looking at things from a particular position...which has now change.

Brexit as happened and I also originally thought it was being driven from the wrong end for the wrong reasons. Theresa May could have stopped it but didn't, so we are all Brexiteers now whether we like it or not. There will be winners and losers as there always is but having your hand on the tiller and reading from your map, gives you a better chance. The post Covid world and the threat of climate change will closed down old markets and open up new ones, we need to heading in the right direction and discovering what we can do and what we can't in this brave new world.
 
Maticmaker said:
Yes of course and if they want to trade with us they will, its called negotiation; hopefully Dominic Cummings will have sorted out the Civil Service Mandarins and we will get some that know what they are doing, if not then admittedly in certain matters it could be tricky.
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Yes I’m sure that will make all the difference! Exciting times, rule Britannia!
 
Maticmaker said:
Yes Paul I've read most of it myself, you are still only looking at things from a particular position...which has now change.

Brexit as happened and I also originally thought it was being driven from the wrong end for the wrong reasons. Theresa May could have stopped it but didn't, so we are all Brexiteers now whether we like it or not. There will be winners and losers as there always is but having your hand on the tiller and reading from your map, gives you a better chance. The post Covid world and the threat of climate change will closed down old markets and open up new ones, we need to heading in the right direction and discovering what we can do and what we can't in this brave new world.
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What a condescending load of twaddle. I read that as a polite way of saying 'Suck it up, losers'.
 
Berbasbullet said:
Yes I’m sure that will make all the difference! Exciting times, rule Britannia!
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putin is already turning a blind eye to the 18 years of Uk objections to Russia joining the WTO... and the thought of cummings has china prepared to totally overlook the Huawei decision, and HK visis... infact they are probably terrified cummings will go back to the old playbook of sending gunboats to attack civilians till they agree to sell opium and re-lease them HK...
well at least in brexit land ... sadly i think the reality of our world status is gonna be hit home very hard in the WTO and future negotiations (but hey everybody loves us right... at least we were not a country who ruled a third of the globe, sold slaves and took resources from the countries we invaded... everybody wants to be our friend :nervous: )
 
Maticmaker said:
Yes Paul I've read most of it myself, you are still only looking at things from a particular position...which has now change.

Brexit as happened and I also originally thought it was being driven from the wrong end for the wrong reasons. Theresa May could have stopped it but didn't, so we are all Brexiteers now whether we like it or not. There will be winners and losers as there always is but having your hand on the tiller and reading from your map, gives you a better chance. The post Covid world and the threat of climate change will closed down old markets and open up new ones, we need to heading in the right direction and discovering what we can do and what we can't in this brave new world.
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I assume you're referring to Huxley's dystopian nightmare?
 
Maticmaker said:
Yes Paul I've read most of it myself, you are still only looking at things from a particular position...which has now change.

Brexit as happened and I also originally thought it was being driven from the wrong end for the wrong reasons. Theresa May could have stopped it but didn't, so we are all Brexiteers now whether we like it or not. There will be winners and losers as there always is but having your hand on the tiller and reading from your map, gives you a better chance. The post Covid world and the threat of climate change will closed down old markets and open up new ones, we need to heading in the right direction and discovering what we can do and what we can't in this brave new world.
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There's only one position, that of logic. You've effectively torn up the best deal you could possibly ever hope for and for the future you have no control of anything, you'll be doing what every country tells you to do, almost every other country in the world is bigger than you or part of a bloc of countries that are bigger than you, even the countries that Britain conquered centuries ago are now more powerful.

Sorry but it just not compute at all and makes no sense whatsoever. Like JRM said, maybe in 50 years you may have got back some of what you already had. You've really been had.
 
Maticmaker said:
Yes Paul I've read most of it myself, you are still only looking at things from a particular position...which has now change.

Brexit as happened and I also originally thought it was being driven from the wrong end for the wrong reasons. Theresa May could have stopped it but didn't, so we are all Brexiteers now whether we like it or not. There will be winners and losers as there always is but having your hand on the tiller and reading from your map, gives you a better chance. The post Covid world and the threat of climate change will closed down old markets and open up new ones, we need to heading in the right direction and discovering what we can do and what we can't in this brave new world.
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Brave new world....
I wish I was even half as optimistic as you seem.
For example.
Who is leading the 5G technology. Not the UK.

Who is designing and building our new nuclear power station. Not the UK.

Who is leading the production of Wind Turbines. Not the UK.

Who is leading the development and production of Electric Cars. Not the UK.

We are excessively reliant on the service sector. So much so that our shambolic government are trying to bribe people to go out for a half price meal. So rediculous.

We are turning our back on one of the biggest trading blocks in the world. And for what?
 
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