Brexited | the worst threads live the longest

Do you think there will be a Deal or No Deal?

  • Total voters
    194
  • Poll closed .
Rooney24 said:
Whats the point of the Fixed Term Parliament Act if Boris can simple bypass it as he plans to do today with a simple majority of 1 rather than 2/3?
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The bill today doesn't bypass the FTPA, it amends it to set the next election date. If the FTPA is used then Johnson gets to set the election date whenever he wants, so even though he said yesterday he wanted one on the 12th December if the vote had been passed he could have set the date whenever he wanted. This way parliament must agree on the date and they also get to propose amendments like giving the vote to 16/17 year olds and EU citizens.

Today will be interesting to say the least.
 
NWRed said:
The bill today doesn't bypass the FTPA, it amends it to set the next election date. If the FTPA is used then Johnson gets to set the election date whenever he wants, so even though he said yesterday he wanted one on the 12th December if the vote had been passed he could have set the date whenever he wanted. This way parliament must agree on the date and they also get to propose amendments like giving the vote to 16/17 year olds and EU citizens.

Today will be interesting to say the least.
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If a government has a majority they now have a precedent to bypass the FTPA. No way around it they've nullified the act in practice.
 
Smores said:
If a government has a majority they now have a precedent to bypass the FTPA. No way around it they've nullified the act in practice.
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It was only ever a PR exercise designed to quell talk about how long the Tory-Lib Dem coalition would last for.
 
Berbasbullet said:
Yep! How dare those undemocratic swines change what we voted for in 2017.
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There was a Tory MP standing up in Parliament yesterday saying this Parliament wasn't what people voted for in 2017 and people have changed their minds and should be allowed to have another vote. I think the irony was lost on him.
 
NWRed said:
The bill today doesn't bypass the FTPA, it amends it to set the next election date. If the FTPA is used then Johnson gets to set the election date whenever he wants, so even though he said yesterday he wanted one on the 12th December if the vote had been passed he could have set the date whenever he wanted. This way parliament must agree on the date and they also get to propose amendments like giving the vote to 16/17 year olds and EU citizens.

Today will be interesting to say the least.
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At the end of the day he is Pretty much bypassing it.
 
Smores said:
If a government has a majority they now have a precedent to bypass the FTPA. No way around it they've nullified the act in practice.
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I think conservatives have said they would scrap the fixed term act if they win the next election... And given the situation we have found ourselves in I think any other party with a majority would do the same ... Not sure if it was a minority government or coalition that they would scrap it
But if Boris wins the election with a majority the fixed term act is gone
 
Smores said:
If a government has a majority they now have a precedent to bypass the FTPA. No way around it they've nullified the act in practice.
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True for future parliaments, and it will probably end up being removed/changed anyway when the upcoming built in review is completed, I was just saying what the difference was between yesterday and today was.
 
I'm disappointed in the SNP and Lib Dems dishing out the line that they want a guarantee that the WAB won't be brought forward. It's just ruined the argument that it's Boris and Boris only stopping the passing of WA.

It wouldn't have even got through anyway.
 
finneh said:
Historically the trade agreements with African countries have been exploitative and have been designed to help EU businesses under the guise of helping African people. This is the same with the majority of the third world.


Like I said before... If there's a greater chance of an awful policy like the CAP or any farming subsidies being removed then that's good enough for me as there's zero chance the EU abolishes them. The same applies with unilaterally abolishing all import tariffs on second and third world countries.

If you don't understand how tens of billions of subsidies over several decades affects the marketplace and affects potential African competitors who don't have access to these subsidies then I'm unsure what to tell you. The technologies that EU farmers have been able to invest in as a result of a state bung is just one example. The dumping of cheap overproduced EU food as a result of the CAP into African countries over decades, decimating their own farming industries is another.


Of course, but again it's proximity and power. The larger the organisation and the more remote it's decision makers, the less chance anyone can effect change. If change could have been affected then the chance of the UK leaving would have resulted in a change of policy. However Cameron tried to effect change and got nowhere.

If you're a believer that much smaller regional government with greater powers is the key to greater democratic representation then the EU is the antithesis of that. My view is government struggles to successfully represent even several hundred thousand people, let alone 500m.
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Which trade agreements, under the new agreements the intention is to not ship at prices under the local price, oddly enough the argument prevously held was the prices were too high so poor African people couldn't afford it.
CAP will be replaced by Uk farming subsidies in the UK as fairly sure the government will look after the Uk farmers before foreign farmers.
If tariffs are abolished by the Uk unilaterally that applies to all countries which is strange because if it applies to all countries that means any country can dump anything they like on the UK which is what you were arguing against in the case of low-priced milk in Africa .
 
Hope it's the 9th, I'm in London on business on the 12th so would have to try and sort a postal vote.
 
With the rumblings that rival Unionist parties wont now give up close seats to the DUP, this is terrible news for Arlene and co.
There just isnt enough time to turn aroind the 'We dont represent NI, we represent GB', chat when they thought they were well in with London. Now Abortion and Same sex marraiges are implemented because of cash for ash and it doesnt look good.
 
cyberman said:
With the rumblings that rival Unionist parties wont now give up close seats to the DUP, this is terrible news for Arlene and co.
There just isnt enough time to turn aroind the 'We dont represent NI, we represent GB', chat when they thought they were well in with London. Now Abortion and Same sex marraiges are implemented because of cash for ash and it doesnt look good.
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Nigel Dodds in big danger if the UUP follow through with that.
 
Paul the Wolf said:
If tariffs are abolished by the Uk unilaterally that applies to all countries which is strange because if it applies to all countries that means any country can dump anything they like on the UK which is what you were arguing against in the case of low-priced milk in Africa .
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I was not arguing against this. I'd be delighted if the EU and/or the UK (ideally reciprocally) unilaterally abolished all import tariffs and also abolished the CAP.

Whether the UK would replace the EU farming subsidies we can only speculate if they would or to what degree, hopefully they wouldn't and if they did they'd slash them considerably.
 
Massive Spanner said:
Can Labour even win? Coalition with the SNP perhaps?
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Outright I doubt it
Since WW2 they have recorded the following
Year - MPs
45 - 393
50 - 315
51 - 295
53 - 277
59 - 258
64 - 317
66 - 364
70 - 288
74 - 301
74 - 319
79 - 269
83 - 209
87 - 229
92 - 271
97 - 419
01 - 413
05 - 356
10 - 258
15 - 232
17 - 262
19 - ?200-240?

Looking at the polling in terms of leader popularity they are very close to 1983 figures and personally i think if the brextit party targets labour leave seats in a pact with the conservatives they will be around the 200 mark

Betting markets suggest somewhere around 230
https://www.paddypower.com/politics/uk-next-general-election

essentially they are going to need something like 100 MP's extra to form a working majority assuming brexit party does not decimate them (i.e. take about 10% of their seats)

Its possible the libs and SNP could have around 100 between them if both performed well

I dont think the libs would enter a formal coalition with Labour - or at least not with corbyn - possibly confidence and supply to get a referendum over the line????

Certainly the conservatives would probably have first shot at forming a government (if they offered the libs a 2nd european referendum then libs might go with that on a confidence and supply basis anyway)

It seems unlikely Labour could win but 6 weeks is a long campaign and events dear boy... events

Conservative majority currently seems most likely I think - possibly with a Brexit / DUP partner if necessary to get the numbers (I am assuming the DUP could be brought to keep corbyn out of power)

i think the brexit partys stance will play a big part
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/...ally-as-farage-seeks-electoral-pact-l2cvbp68r
If they have an electoral pact with the conservatives I think the conservatives know that it would probably help with a victory - but may leave them subject to the ERG and Farrage crippling the free trade talks for a hard brexit.

I have money on:
Labour getting their lowest seats since WW2 (208 or less)
A conservative majority
Libs getting over 40 seats
 
Think Boris would have liked to have got the deal passed before a GE, which would wipe out Lib Dems and Brexit Party, but practically, he can't get it passed without amendments that would prevent it getting passed, so can see why he went for GE instead. But it does get a GE as a pseudo-referendum which is what he wanted--if it was based on things like their past performance, doubt they would want a GE.

I also think that getting a deal before calling the GE will take the rug out from the Brexit Party, now Farage is forced from a Brexit vs. Remain battle into a No Deal vs. Deal battle, and I think he can only win that with a small minority of extremists. Further, due to the massive headache that hung parliaments, coalition parliaments, have created, I doubt any voter wants an election to return another of those, only to lead to another GE sooner rather than later. Due to this, I expect tactical voting to severely affect the smaller parties, in particular TBP and Lib Dems, with their prior support not translating into election votes and seats. In terms of splitting of the vote, I can see Lib Dems more effectively splitting the Remain vote and adversely affecting Labour, than TBP affecting the Tories, in part because of the mishmash policies of Labour, because of Corbyn himself, and Lib Dems going unequivocally Remain and Revoke. For all these reasons, plus polling trends, I predict a Conversative Landslide majority win.
 
Surely it would be in both Labour and Tory interests to have the Brexit deal done before a GE, then TBP and the Lib-dems return to being also rans. It then becomes a straight fight on traditional grounds between Boris and Jeremy.... oh No, on second thoughts maybe not!
 
And yet she's surprised when people accuse her of bias...
 
"Stop doing what we don't want or we'll pull every bill"

Yup that's sovereignty
 
Amendments to the bill are being published on the Parliament website.

So far, they include:

  • Giving EU citizens the vote
  • Giving 16 and 17-year-olds the vote
  • Changing the election date to 9 December
  • Changing the election date to 7 December
  • Changing the election date to 7 May 2020 and holding a referendum first
But it will be down to Deputy Speaker Lindsay Hoyle to chose which ones get selected.

Hold on, what's this? Sounds like a plan!
 
Zero chance it passes with the EU citizens or 16-18 year olds amendments.

Edit: never mind then.
 
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