Brexited | the worst threads live the longest

Do you think there will be a Deal or No Deal?


  • Total voters
    194
  • Poll closed .
Because no one expects for the irish arrangements to go away any time soon really. They're in for the foreseeable.

WTO brexit would be more accurate than no deal i guess. Messy terminology

But it's not going to be the FTA that is the biggest problem for the UK, it's going to be being outside the Customs Union, the FTA will never be ready by Jan 2021 if it's by Jan 2025 they'll be doing well. The hard border's going to be the killer.
 
But it's not going to be the FTA that is the biggest problem for the UK, it's going to be being outside the Customs Union, the FTA will never be ready by Jan 2021 if it's by Jan 2025 they'll be doing well. The hard border's going to be the killer.

Not between NI and Ireland though as that will keep the current arrangements for a long time, that's what this deal is about. The UK (outside of NI) isn't expecting any FTA unfortunately for us.
 
But it's not going to be the FTA that is the biggest problem for the UK, it's going to be being outside the Customs Union, the FTA will never be ready by Jan 2021 if it's by Jan 2025 they'll be doing well. The hard border's going to be the killer.

The transition period up to the end of 2020 is the current status quo, free movement and single market membership, the dual customs union for NI kicks in then if no FTA is signed and no transition extention is agreed. It would then be 6 years minimum (4 years until a vote then 2 years cooling off period) before a hard border in NI, so the earliest a hard border could happen in NI is Jan 1st 2027.
 
Not between NI and Ireland though as that will keep the current arrangements for a long time, that's what this deal is about. The UK (outside of NI) isn't expecting any FTA unfortunately for us.

Yes NI/Ire is safe with the deal at least for 6 years minimum and probably for the foreseeable future. There will surely be a FTA at some point between the EU & the UK. Under the May deal the whole of the UK would be safeguarded until the magic solution of the border was found but Brexiters are happy the rest of the UK are no longer in the previous backstop.
 
The transition period up to the end of 2020 is the current status quo, free movement and single market membership, the dual customs union for NI kicks in then if no FTA is signed and no transition extention is agreed. It would then be 6 years minimum (4 years until a vote then 2 years cooling off period) before a hard border in NI, so the earliest a hard border could happen in NI is Jan 1st 2027.

Yes agreed totally, I'm talking about the other borders , eg Dover/Calais.
 
:eek:
Updated estimate recons it'll pass, but so should Letwin's ammendment so takes pressure off Labour rebels and outcast Tories and puts it back on Johnson.



It's just amazing to think that the lives of 60+million folks will be invariably be changed forever by the vote of just four people.
 
Seems like Letwin has pretty much killed off super Saturday as there's no doubt his amendment will pass.

The Letwin amendment, which has cross-party support, increasing its chances of being selected, is:
  • to withhold House of Commons approval of the deal until the legislation to implement the agreement is passed
Labour's Hilary Benn, Lib Dem leader Jo Swinson and Plaid Cymru's Westminster leader Liz Saville Roberts - as well as former ministers David Gauke and Philip Hammond - have thrown their weight behind this proposal.

Why is the Letwin amendment significant?
The lesson of the Brexit battles so far is that it is the cross-party amendments and motions that are the most dangerous.
Single-party proposals are mostly efforts to signal a position, it's the proposals that MPs from several parties can sign up to that pose a more serious threat.
It's a cunningly crafted proposition which, crucially, could be voted for by MPs who want a deal, but don't trust this one, and don't trust the government.
It rests on the idea that were Parliament to approve the deal for the purposes of the Benn Act now, there might then be a danger that the subsequent legislation to enact it might be, somehow, derailed, resulting in a no-deal exit on 31 October.


What happens if the Letwin amendment passes?
If it passes, and the main motion - approval for Mr Johnson's Brexit deal - passes as amended:
  • The prime minister is required to request an extension from the EU to 31 January by the end of Saturday
  • He is then expected to introduce the Withdrawal Agreement Bill (WAB) which is there to implement any withdrawal agreement
  • Section 13 of the 2018 EU Withdrawal Act requires both a meaningful vote and the WAB to pass before the UK leaves the EU
  • But the new WAB could include a provision to get rid of the need for a meaningful vote - therefore, once the WAB is passed the deal is done
  • The UK could technically still leave on 31 October if Mr Johnson passes the legislation very quickly
  • But legislation could take longer and opens the door to amendments from MPs and Lords.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-50095368
 
Apparently, the government won't allow MPs to read the deal's 'impact statement' before the vote. How the hell are these shysters permitted to get away with this kind of thing, time and again?
 
Apparently, the government won't allow MPs to read the deal's 'impact statement' before the vote. How the hell are these shysters permitted to get away with this kind of thing, time and again?
And the people don’t care, how are we a country in 2019 with zero sense of responsibility, we need some pragmatism and grown ups to work this out.

All we are getting is people trying to ‘win’.
 
Sick and tired of the Labour rebels claiming they have secured workers rights and they are backing the vote simply to save their seats. They all need to have the whip withdrawn. Every one can see this for the scam that it is but all these people are concerned about is saving their own skin.
 
Sick and tired of the Labour rebels claiming they have secured workers rights and they are backing the vote simply to save their seats. They all need to have the whip withdrawn. Every one can see this for the scam that it is but all these people are concerned about is saving their own skin.
Who is the fool claiming to have secured workers' rights?
 
Oh for feck sake, Michael Oliver is speaker of the house today
 
Sick and tired of the Labour rebels claiming they have secured workers rights and they are backing the vote simply to save their seats. They all need to have the whip withdrawn. Every one can see this for the scam that it is but all these people are concerned about is saving their own skin.

It's very poor judgement, and more likely to lose them their seats.

https://www.britishelectionstudy.com/bes-findings/labours-electoral-dilemma/#.XarA7mZ7n8C

"in Labour seats where there was a Leave majority, 60% of Labour voters voted to Remain in 2016 compared to 76% in Remain seats. In other words while unsurprisingly there were more Labour leave voters in leave seats, on average there was still a substantial Remain majority. Even in those with a Leave vote of greater than 60%, a clear majority (57%) of Labour voters voted Remain in 2016."
 
Apparently, the government won't allow MPs to read the deal's 'impact statement' before the vote. How the hell are these shysters permitted to get away with this kind of thing, time and again?

No need according to our chancellor because its obvious that it's good to get Brexit done :lol:

If our MPs don't put some amendments down at some point to demand impact assessments prior to second reading then they've failed in the simplest of jobs here.

Today's going to be a very anger inducing day. Good like gents and gals :lol:
 
No need according to our chancellor because its obvious that it's good to get Brexit done :lol:

If our MPs don't put some amendments down at some point to demand impact assessments prior to second reading then they've failed in the simplest of jobs here.

Today's going to be a very anger inducing day. Good like gents and gals :lol:
This.

I have decided to take my daughter out for the day and not bother following this.
 
The main difference between May's deal and Johnson’s is that Johnson removed the legal requirement to adhere to EU tax avoidance laws.
What Brexit was all about, all along.
 
Honestly, is there anything more infuriating than that smirk Patel has??

I was literally about to say the same thing. She is genuinely infuriating. Boris standing in front of her is a welcome sight
 
I'm sure the usual will say otherwise but thought Corbyn's speech hit the right notes.

Now to the good stuff, backbenches
 
Literally the only EU regulation he can quote that he wants to be rid of is exporting live cattle, as the ones they really want to be rid of either don't effect the general public (tax evasion) or protect them (workers' rights etc). A healthy press would be exposing this all over their front pages and educating the public.
 
Basically What BJ got you lot is the official deal for the disintegrtion of the UK. Brexiteers don't mind that the union gets dissolved as evidenced by polls posted here a couple of months ago or so, and that's what you'll be getting imo.
 
Basically What BJ got you lot is the official deal for the disintegrtion of the UK. Brexiteers don't mind that the union gets dissolved as evidenced by polls posted here a couple of months ago or so, and that's what you'll be getting imo.

Nah Wales will stay with England, we can't afford to go it on our own.