Brexited | the worst threads live the longest

Do you think there will be a Deal or No Deal?


  • Total voters
    194
  • Poll closed .
Why buy a police constable when you can get a police inspector with 50% off. There's even a special BOGOF offer if you are quick.
50% off the cost or the clothing? Because that might not be an actual "police inspector". I've made that mistake a few times.
 
Apparently gove and raab briefing the erg that the way to get no deal is to sign up to the Boris deal and then if trade talks are not concluded in 2 years (and they probably won't be) then we default to WTO and leave on those terms
Erg apparently going to get pm to confirm that would happen at the dispatch box in order to agree to back the deal.
Suspect that although this will bring some hard brexit votes on board it may loose some anti no deal votes
I Still think he will loose tomorrow even if he can buy the dup votes

Johnson will say anything to get his deal through (and thereby secure a personal victory). He is most likely lying to the ERG.
 
Apparently gove and raab briefing the erg that the way to get no deal is to sign up to the Boris deal and then if trade talks are not concluded in 2 years (and they probably won't be) then we default to WTO and leave on those terms
Erg apparently going to get pm to confirm that would happen at the dispatch box in order to agree to back the deal.
Suspect that although this will bring some hard brexit votes on board it may loose some anti no deal votes
I Still think he will loose tomorrow even if he can buy the dup votes

There is no way the trade talks will be concluded in two years but this is as meaningless as the no deal act.

The EU are not compelled to grant an extension nor are they compelled to agree a FTA. The UK government back to discussing with themselves .
Macron sounds as if he's had enough as well.
 
I’ve literally never met a single remainer who “just wants Brexit done now” or wants us to “respect the result at all costs” yet BBC news seems to be interviewing a new one of these every night.
I voted remain and I hope this deal goes through. I can’t see any other way forward that won’t cause outrage or worse. We need to honour the first referendum before even thinking about another one and an orderly withdrawal is the best option. It may turn out fine. It may not but for now I think it has to happen.
Up until now I thought an orderly withdrawal was taking your nob out while holding a tissue underneath to catch the mess.
 
I voted remain and I hope this deal goes through. I can’t see any other way forward that won’t cause outrage or worse. We need to honour the first referendum before even thinking about another one and an orderly withdrawal is the best option. It may turn out fine. It may not but for now I think it has to happen.
Up until now I thought an orderly withdrawal was taking your nob out while holding a tissue underneath to catch the mess.
As if Boris would do that. He’s clearly a wipe-it-on-the-curtain man
 
Apparently gove and raab briefing the erg that the way to get no deal is to sign up to the Boris deal and then if trade talks are not concluded in 2 years (and they probably won't be) then we default to WTO and leave on those terms
Erg apparently going to get pm to confirm that would happen at the dispatch box in order to agree to back the deal.
Suspect that although this will bring some hard brexit votes on board it may loose some anti no deal votes
I Still think he will loose tomorrow even if he can buy the dup votes

I certainly leaves the door open for a no deal on jan 1st 2021.

Time for Corbyn and Labour to step up. There's a very real chance Johnson could win on saturday. If he does then it's game over for remain. While I haven't agreed with Corbyn's approach to brexit, I still support his politics and plans for goverment. But if Johnson gets his agreement through then he can essentially do what he wants. So I hope Corbyn has something up his sleeve, or his time is basically up.
 
Apparently gove and raab briefing the erg that the way to get no deal is to sign up to the Boris deal and then if trade talks are not concluded in 2 years (and they probably won't be) then we default to WTO and leave on those terms
Erg apparently going to get pm to confirm that would happen at the dispatch box in order to agree to back the deal.
Suspect that although this will bring some hard brexit votes on board it may loose some anti no deal votes
I Still think he will loose tomorrow even if he can buy the dup votes

I don't think there's any "probably" about it. The guy who will be leading the negotiations for the EU said it would take him approx. 8 months just to get his team together and that several years of negotiations would then follow. Getting it done within two is likely literally impossible.

Though I don't see why Johnson wouldn't just lie now and deal with that problem in two years' time when the majority will be on his side.
 
May has every right to feel hard done by. Johnson's deal sensible but her's was not?
 
"David Cameron calls Boris a greased piglet"

Wait...is that the piggy cameron fecked :eek:
 
May has every right to feel hard done by. Johnson's deal sensible but her's was not?

Remaining was sensible and half the population didn't listen, taking May's deal was more sensible than letting Boris Johnson get hold of power.

I wonder if next year we'll be talking about an even more sensible deal!
 
I think Jess Phillips has enough personality to do well in the current environment...

eg her twitter bio

Jess Phillips Esq., M.P.
@jessphillips
Labour MP for Birmingham Yardley http://jessphillips.net Sordid, Unseemly & Grotesque according to a little man on the internet.
Birmingham, EnglandJoined February 2009



Dont think momentum would approve of her though as I doubt they could control her

I like her a lot, would vote for her, might even knock on doors for her. But it feels abit early for her?

So long as she can progress her upward trajectory, a certain candidate in 5 years time?

Then again, Obama came from nowhere so what do I know!
 
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Will she vote for his deal... She did say no pm could ever accept a customs boarder between ni and uk

haha.. Even Boris said the exact same thing. They have no shame. I think she will vote for it.

I have 2 questions

1) what if its a tie?

2) I remember reading about a clause saying the NI government has a say on whether to be in the Customs union every 4 years. What if they decide No, they dont want to be?. Will there be a hard border?. Or am I understanding it wrong?
 
I certainly leaves the door open for a no deal on jan 1st 2021.

Time for Corbyn and Labour to step up. There's a very real chance Johnson could win on saturday. If he does then it's game over for remain. While I haven't agreed with Corbyn's approach to brexit, I still support his politics and plans for goverment. But if Johnson gets his agreement through then he can essentially do what he wants. So I hope Corbyn has something up his sleeve, or his time is basically up.

The only thing that Jeremy has up his sleeve is his arm.
He has already committed to vote against. This in the vain hope of a GE, which he has a low probability of winning.
As a lifelong Labour voter I sincerely hope his time is up.
They need a fresh new face with a fresh new mindset in order to take the fight to the Tories.
Every time I see Jeremy he looks more frail.
 
haha.. Even Boris said the exact same thing. They have no shame. I think she will vote for it.

I have 2 questions

1) what if its a tie?

2) I remember reading about a clause saying the NI government has a say on whether to be in the Customs union every 4 years. What if they decide No, they dont want to be?. Will there be a hard border?. Or am I understanding it wrong?

I have wondered the same thing about your second point.
Someone asked Barnier that question during the announcement (I think he was Spanish) but Barnier didn't answer it properly.
 
haha.. Even Boris said the exact same thing. They have no shame. I think she will vote for it.

I have 2 questions

1) what if its a tie?

2) I remember reading about a clause saying the NI government has a say on whether to be in the Customs union every 4 years. What if they decide No, they dont want to be?. Will there be a hard border?. Or am I understanding it wrong?

If it’s a tie the speaker gets the deciding vote. I think I’m right in saying convention dictates he would vote against the government as the motion/bill hasn’t received a majority and so shouldn’t be passed.
 
Farage is such a Cnut, the news showing his speech. Him raving on about a clean break Brexit, what a charlatan he is.

It’s an absolute joke how people like him get so much air time.
 
I don't think there's any "probably" about it. The guy who will be leading the negotiations for the EU said it would take him approx. 8 months just to get his team together and that several years of negotiations would then follow. Getting it done within two is likely literally impossible.

Though I don't see why Johnson wouldn't just lie now and deal with that problem in two years' time when the majority will be on his side.

I can’t imagine Johnson actually wants a no deal due to the calamity it will bring but he wants to be seen for fighting for Brexit.
 
The only thing that Jeremy has up his sleeve is his arm.
He has already committed to vote against. This in the vain hope of a GE, which he has a low probability of winning.
As a lifelong Labour voter I sincerely hope his time is up.
They need a fresh new face with a fresh new mindset in order to take the fight to the Tories.
Every time I see Jeremy he looks more frail.
Jeremy will most likely 'retire' after the coming election, so not long now, but his replacement will be another momentum type, chosen by the new members.
 
If it’s a tie the speaker gets the deciding vote. I think I’m right in saying convention dictates he would vote against the government as the motion/bill hasn’t received a majority and so shouldn’t be passed.
Yes i think basically it's vote for the status quo... So if somebody said change and existing law (for example brexit date) and it was a tie he is compelled to keep it the same...
Under the same premis as Johnson's withdrawal agreement is not currently passed convention is he would vote against

I think one of the brexit votes before was a tie if I remember and he upset a lot of the brexit bunch by sticking to convention
 
haha.. Even Boris said the exact same thing. They have no shame. I think she will vote for it.

I have 2 questions

1) what if its a tie?

2) I remember reading about a clause saying the NI government has a say on whether to be in the Customs union every 4 years. What if they decide No, they dont want to be?. Will there be a hard border?. Or am I understanding it wrong?

I have wondered the same thing about your second point.
Someone asked Barnier that question during the announcement (I think he was Spanish) but Barnier didn't answer it properly.

The first question has already been answered by esmufc07 and sun_tzu, speaker gets the casting vote and by convention always opposes the motion as it hasn't commanded a majority.

As for the second question, as I understand it the voting rules for Stormont with regards to this are as follows:
  • if a simple majority vote yes then it gets approved for 4 years
  • if a majority of nationalists and unionists vote yes then it get approved for 8 years (but for some reason this is defined as minimum 50% for each OR minimum 40% for each and minimum 60% overall)
  • if the vote is no then it triggers a 2 year cooling off period for the UK and EU to find some other arrangements, only at the end of that 2 year cooling off period could there be a hard border.
The first vote would be 4 years in so first theoretical possibility of a hard border is 6 years in.
 
Updated estimate recons it'll pass, but so should Letwin's ammendment so takes pressure off Labour rebels and outcast Tories and puts it back on Johnson.

 
Due to the Letwin amendment, I doubt there will even be a vote on the deal tomorrow...it will have wrecked the already weak arithmetic. If they did, a 2nd ref could be pegged on to the deal during legislation--that threat will prevent getting enough votes, so makes no sense now for Boris to even go for a vote, suspect it therefore will be withdrawn.
 
Due to the Letwin amendment, I doubt there will even be a vote on the deal tomorrow...it will have wrecked the already weak arithmetic. If they did, a 2nd ref could be pegged on to the deal during legislation--that threat will prevent getting enough votes, so makes no sense now for Boris to even go for a vote, suspect it therefore will be withdrawn.
I genuinely don't follow that logic
 
Updated estimate recons it'll pass, but so should Letwin's ammendment so takes pressure off Labour rebels and outcast Tories and puts it back on Johnson.



I wouldn't ever take Payne as a source tbh. He's the definition of Tory boy.
 
It's barely been mentioned on the BBC that this isn't getting brexit done or that it requires a FTA not to be a no deal in 2020.

It's ridiculous.
 
Due to the Letwin amendment, I doubt there will even be a vote on the deal tomorrow...it will have wrecked the already weak arithmetic. If they did, a 2nd ref could be pegged on to the deal during legislation--that threat will prevent getting enough votes, so makes no sense now for Boris to even go for a vote, suspect it therefore will be withdrawn.

He won't withdraw it; electoral optics too appealing. But Letwin passing will change everything indeed. Can't see it passing in that case.
 
It's barely been mentioned on the BBC that this isn't getting brexit done or that it requires a FTA not to be a no deal in 2020.

It's ridiculous.

I haven't seen mentioned anywhere that the borders will be hard after the transition period with or without a FTA, other than of course on the island of Ireland so it's not a no deal because the GFA in Ireland and the integrity of the EU single market is agreed which were the real concerns of the EU.
 
It's barely been mentioned on the BBC that this isn't getting brexit done or that it requires a FTA not to be a no deal in 2020.

It's ridiculous.

The latter part is the crucial bit. I can see court cases in the next 6 months if the deal gets through. The whole "new" deal is weird, worse than the May agreement for everybody but with the potential of going through because its a populist in charge.
 
The latter part is the crucial bit. I can see court cases in the next 6 months if the deal gets through. The whole "new" deal is weird, worse than the May agreement for everybody but with the potential of going through because its a populist in charge.

Courts won't touch it. Parliament can do what they want. It's their responsibility to scrutinise legislation properly. And we'll have left the EU anyway, so nothing there.

(Jo Maugham seems to have missed the memo on this, but it's still the case.)
 
I haven't seen mentioned anywhere that the borders will be hard after the transition period with or without a FTA, other than of course on the island of Ireland so it's not a no deal because the GFA in Ireland and the integrity of the EU single market is agreed which were the real concerns of the EU.

Because no one expects for the irish arrangements to go away any time soon really. They're in for the foreseeable.

WTO brexit would be more accurate than no deal i guess. Messy terminology