Brexited | the worst threads live the longest

Do you think there will be a Deal or No Deal?

  • Total voters
    194
  • Poll closed .
Who should I follow on Twitter do I keep updated today? Journalists etc.
 
Maciek said:
Who should I follow on Twitter do I keep updated today? Journalists etc.
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If you go onto twitter news and click the debate you'll find all the usual and most vocal journalists like Goddal and Bienkov
 
OohAahMartial said:
Due to the Letwin amendment, I doubt there will even be a vote on the deal tomorrow...it will have wrecked the already weak arithmetic. If they did, a 2nd ref could be pegged on to the deal during legislation--that threat will prevent getting enough votes, so makes no sense now for Boris to even go for a vote, suspect it therefore will be withdrawn.
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As predicted, if Letwin passes they will pull the vote and send everyone home.

And then we will find out what his hidden card is about the Benn Act.
 
Boris has said he will obey the Law, but I don't recall him saying which Law. I suspect this will go to Court this week and they will argue for primacy of EU Law, and Article 50.

That's if Letwin passes, which it is thought to.
 
I see the DUP tactic of belittling opposition by claiming they don't understand or haven't read a document properly was used early doors today
 
OohAahMartial said:
Boris has said he will obey the Law, but I don't recall him saying which Law. I suspect this will go to Court this week and they will argue for primacy of EU Law, and Article 50.

That's if Letwin passes, which it is thought to.
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BBC say Letwin vote will be very very tight
 
I’m so fecking conflicted on this. Rejecting the deal gives a chance for an election and perhaps a referendum. Increasing the chances Brexit is blocked. It also increases the chances of no-deal Brexit sharply. Compromise now or take it down the wire in a winner-takes-all gamble?

Although I’m at the march to Parliament atm and every one here is against the deal. I guess I’m more pessimistic than the people around me.
 
MadMike said:
I’m so fecking conflicted on this. Rejecting the deal gives a chance for an election and perhaps a referendum. Increasing the chances Brexit is blocked. It also increases the chances of no-deal Brexit sharply. Compromise now or take it down the wire in a winner-takes-all gamble?

Although I’m at the march to Parliament atm and every one here is against the deal. I guess I’m more pessimistic than the people around me.
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Yeah honestly I don't know what I want to happen today, if we come out of it with an extension, I'll be satisfied.
 
The Cat said:
Nah Wales will stay with England, we can't afford to go it on our own.
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TBH neither can Scotland or NI.

Out of the 67.5 M people living in the UK (2017/18 figures HOC Library) 84% reside in England, 8.9% Scotland, 4.8% Wales and 2.9% NI
People living in Scotland have around 10% more of public spending per person than the UK average; in Wales its about 11% and NI nearly 20%, in England its - (minus) 3%.

These figures are not really a surprise, but quite often its forgotten what the differences are between the respective countries both in terms of population and public spending and what it might mean if there was a breakup of either the UK, or GB. or even why it was in England the biggest share of Leave votes was recorded. It must all be relevant in someway!
 
MadMike said:
I’m so fecking conflicted on this. Rejecting the deal gives a chance for an election and perhaps a referendum. Increasing the chances Brexit is blocked. It also increases the chances of no-deal Brexit sharply. Compromise now or take it down the wire in a winner-takes-all gamble?

Although I’m at the march to Parliament atm and every one here is against the deal. I guess I’m more pessimistic than the people around me.
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I'd be amazed if this didn't result in a No Deal, if this Deal is voted down. Whether that be due to Macron, or be it due to the Courts or Boris. And if the deal is voted down, and there was an Extension, and it goes to a GE, Tories, on the back of a rejected deal, would win in a landslide and then pass that deal, and whatever else they wanted to for the next 5 years.
 
OohAahMartial said:
I'd be amazed if this didn't result in a No Deal, if this Deal is voted down. Whether that be due to Macron, or be it due to the Courts or Boris. And if the deal is voted down, and there was an Extension, and it goes to a GE, Tories, on the back of a rejected deal, would win in a landslide and then pass that deal, and whatever else they wanted to for the next 5 years.
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So what would be better in this situation?
Pass the deal then, knowing Brexit is sorted, well the first part, have an election based purely on domestic issues and the potential EU relationship rather than Brexit alone?
OR
Reject the deal, secure an extension, have an election with the Tories most likely dominating and doing whatever they want for the next 5 years?
 
Brownie85 said:
So what would be better in this situation?
Pass the deal then, knowing Brexit is sorted, well the first part, have an election based purely on domestic issues and the potential EU relationship rather than Brexit alone?
OR
Reject the deal, secure an extension, have an election with the Tories most likely dominating and doing whatever they want for the next 5 years?
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Are the Tories guaranteed to win an election in the 2nd case? About half of the country is opposed to Brexit, I think they would have to form another coalition.
 
horsechoker said:
Are the Tories guaranteed to win an election in the 2nd case? About half of the country is opposed to Brexit, I think they would have to form another coalition.
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If polls are to be believed (which i don't believe them, but for sake of argument i'm assuming they're accurate), then yes, they'd likely win with a strong majority. Again, who knows what will happen, but i'd much rather the deal be passed then an election can be held based on our future relationship and other pressing domestic issues, which at the moment, seem to be brushed aside somewhat.
 
My guess is Letwin bill will be rejected .Vote will go ahead . And Boris deal will be passed.
 
horsechoker said:
Are the Tories guaranteed to win an election in the 2nd case? About half of the country is opposed to Brexit, I think they would have to form another coalition.
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Nothing is guaranteed in these unpredictable times.

I live in a Labour stronghold in the north and a lot of people are unhappy. Even people i personally know (who have never voted Conservative) will vote for them at the next election.
 
Fergies Gum said:
Nothing is guaranteed in these unpredictable times.

I live in a Labour stronghold in the north and a lot of people are unhappy. Even people i personally know (who have never voted Conservative) will vote for them at the next election.
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I know a few people like that too.
I know a lot of people, including my dad, who has been a Labour voter all his life, now refusing to vote for Labour whilst Corbyn is in charge. Politics is in a mess at the moment, and to be fair, whilst Brexit is still rumbling on, the uncertainty shows no signs of ending. More extensions will just cause more problems and will give the impression to a lot of people that MP's are deliberately frustrating things.
 
OohAahMartial said:
Whether that be due to Macron,
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I agree, Macron for his own reasons wants to get Brexit sorted, and with Merkel about to step down he is making a bid to be the main leader in the EU going forward, and once we've gone he has a clear run because like us France is the only EU country with a seat on the UN Security Council and in defence terms, within the EU, that makes them 'top dog'.

Whether he could afford for France to take the hit of a 'no deal', which is what would surely result if the EU refuse an extension, is still debateable; however Macron has a lot more to play for in the EU going forward and with the UK gone and Merkel about to stand down such opportunities for leadership of Europe are rare and Macron might just be tempted.
 
Drifter said:
My guess is Letwin bill will be rejected .Vote will go ahead . And Boris deal will be passed.
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I think letwin passes... But if not I think
Letwin defeated
Boris defeated
No deal defeated
Referendum defeated

Boris either sends no letter or a second letter to scupper the extension

No confidence motion lodged Monday and to be debated tuesday ...

Boris defeated but no immediate alternative

Basically we will be a week from a hard brexit with no pm and the only thing people can agree on is they don't want hard brexit... Yet still can't agree to stop it
 
Brownie85 said:
So what would be better in this situation?
Pass the deal then, knowing Brexit is sorted, well the first part, have an election based purely on domestic issues and the potential EU relationship rather than Brexit alone?
OR
Reject the deal, secure an extension, have an election with the Tories most likely dominating and doing whatever they want for the next 5 years?
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Whichever way you game it, I see Tories winning. That Boris got a deal kind of ensures that.

Letwin fails, Deal passes, BJ wins election as the man who made Brexit happen, with his deal.
Letwin fails, Deal fails, extension rejected by EU OR by Court, or some workaround, No deal occurs with blame on Labour, BJ wins election.
Letwin fails, Deal fails, extension given, BJ still wins election based on the people v. parliament, getbrexitdone, lines that he is trying to get it based on.
Letwin wins, no MV, extension rejected by EU OR by Court, or some workaround, No deal occurs with blame on Labour and Remainers, BJ wins election.
Letwin wins, Deal passed by 31st, BJ wins election as the man who made Brexit happen, with his deal.

Considering that Tories have won the last elections, and would have an election in the immediate aftermath of either a passed deal or rejected deal, in the case of a passed deal, Lib Dems and Brexit wiped out. In case of rejected deal, I do agree a much closer election, but I still see a lot of Labour Leaver seats being lost. And the rebels would lose out to hardcore Brexiteers. One can't ignore that the way the system (gerrymandering etc.) stands, Tories have the starting advantage, and would most likely increase that.
 
Maticmaker said:
I agree, Macron for his own reasons wants to get Brexit sorted, and with Merkel about to step down he is making a bid to be the main leader in the EU going forward, and once we've gone he has a clear run because like us France is the only EU country with a seat on the UN Security Council and in defence terms, within the EU, that makes them 'top dog'.

Whether he could afford for France to take the hit of a 'no deal', which is what would surely result if the EU refuse an extension, is still debateable; however Macron has a lot more to play for in the EU going forward and with the UK gone and Merkel about to stand down such opportunities for leadership of Europe are rare and Macron might just be tempted.
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Whether this deal passes or there is no deal there will still be a hard border between the UK and France so makes little difference plus chances are a lot of businesses will move from the UK to Europe including France.

What matters most to the EU is the GFA being intact and the single market protected - not German car manufacturers or Italian prosecco producers because there will still be a hard border with or without a deal.
 
sun_tzu said:
I think letwin passes... But if not I think
Letwin defeated
Boris defeated
No deal defeated
Referendum defeated

Boris either sends no letter or a second letter to scupper the extension

No confidence motion lodged Monday and to be debated tuesday ...

Boris defeated but no immediate alternative

Basically we will be a week from a hard brexit with no pm and the only thing people can agree on is they don't want hard brexit... Yet still can't agree to stop it
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Where does civil war feature in this timeline?
 
sun_tzu said:
Basically we will be a week from a hard brexit with no pm and the only thing people can agree on is they don't want hard brexit... Yet still can't agree to stop it
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Yes indeed, what's that old saying "we get the politicians we deserve". Todays politicians in particular are all about self/party interests, whether we like it or not, when it comes to wielding power, none of them vote in the National Interest, its just a ploy.

Years ago I was involved with trying to get manufacturing companies in the North West involved in what was a then known as an EITB Awards scheme, particularly aimed and 16/17 years old being offered the 'old fashioned' apprenticeship training. At my first conference address my big USP was to tempt them with a call to 'train for the future' and I was told in no uncertain terms, "Sorry, but when it comes down to it, nobody trains in the National Interest only in their Company's interest"... shot me down in flames!

Same now with our politicians, its party and self interest only...nothing really changes does it!
 
sammsky1 said:
Where does civil war feature in this timeline?
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When we look at Spain, Hong Kong, or even Chile now, we can maybe get a glimpse of what may even start today. Today's street protest could easily become tonight's riot. Things don't bode well, whichever way this goes, in this regard.
 
Maticmaker said:
Yes indeed, what's that old saying "we get the politicians we deserve". Todays politicians in particular are all about self/party interests, whether we like it or not, when it comes to wielding power, none of them vote in the National Interest, its just a ploy.

Years ago I was involved with trying to get manufacturing companies in the North West involved in what was a then known as an EITB Awards scheme, particularly aimed and 16/17 years old being offered the 'old fashioned' apprenticeship training. At my first conference address my big USP was to tempt them with a call to 'train for the future' and I was told in no uncertain terms, "Sorry, but when it comes down to it, nobody trains in the National Interest only in their Company's interest"... shot me down in flames!

Same now with our politicians, its party and self interest only...nothing really changes does it!
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And none more so than this SNP Westminster Leader currently speaking. Honestly, I put SNP on the same level as the BNP.
 
OohAahMartial said:
When we look at Spain, Hong Kong, or even Chile now, we can maybe get a glimpse of what may even start today. Today's street protest could easily become tonight's riot. Things don't bode well, whichever way this goes, in this regard.
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This could be why Johnson seems so quick to move the vote to next week.
 
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