Brexited | the worst threads live the longest

Do you think there will be a Deal or No Deal?

  • Total voters
    194
  • Poll closed .
sun_tzu said:
did they go for it primarily because nationalists were against it?

just trying to get my head around that decision as it seems if you want to preserve the union then preserving the current legal frameworks, customs unions and regulations was the most logical way to do so... even without taking into account the risks to the good friday agreement inherent in re-introducing a hard border
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Honestly I would wager decent Money on it that that is not too far off the mark although they would never admit to it. In simplistic terms they probably went for it because in their ideal scenario they saw a UK (including NI) fully out of the EU, and a Republic of Ireland left behind in it. And in their minds that made the possibility of a UI more difficult than ever. They never foreseen any of the real issues or problems at all.

It makes me laugh when I see them on the News last night saying that this deal destroys the GFA, an Agreement that they campaigned against and never signed up to.
 
Rooney24 said:
Honestly I would wager decent Money on it that that is not too far off the mark although they would never admit to it. In simplistic terms they probably went for it because in their ideal scenario they saw a UK (including NI) fully out of the EU, and a Republic of Ireland left behind in it. And in their minds that made the possibility of a UI more difficult than ever. They never foreseen any of the real issues or problems at all.

It makes me laugh when I see them on the News last night saying that this deal destroys the GFA, an Agreement that they campaigned against and never signed up to.
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It really is laughable, as most people probably know I am a Unionist but how anyone can vote for, or even like these clowns is beyond me. Problem is there are NO other Unionist candidates, UUP are weak, TUV are week and even more bigoted than the DUP. I may not like Sinn Fein but as a political party they are head and shoulders above anything the Unionist side can offer. Its even funnier still that its the DUP themselves that has probably made the biggest step towards a boarder poll in the last 20 years.
 
Pexbo said:
I won't be. They had the whip removed because they were completely against No Deal. This is a deal so it's in line with their original principles and Boris unfortunately has the leverage of being able to invite them back into the party and put it all behind them if they promise to vote for his deal.

If I had to guess what will happen now, I'd say that he's going to get enough of the 21 back on board and get his deal through parliament with the help of some Labour rebels and we will leave the EU on 31st October.

He's then going to call a General Election after we have left the EU and The Brexit Party and the Lib Dems will once against be absolutely irrelevant and centrist remainers will move back to the Tories thinking that it was Brexit that brought the worst out of them and "all that is behind us now" because the party is reunited again with "sensible moderates" like Hammond and Rudd back in the party.

Tories are going to win the next GE with 340+ seats and Boris will reform his cabinet with more establishment types in an attempt to be taken seriously once more. People will buy into it for 2 or 3 years until they realise their faces are still being chewed by exactly the same leopard.
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So depressing, i want to blow my brains out.
 
So Cox has provided legal assurance to the ERG that they can no deal in 2020 at the end of the transition.
 
Brexit 'super Saturday': your guide to the big day
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/oct/18/brexit-super-saturday-will-the-deal-pass

What is the schedule for Saturday?
The Commons convenes at 9.30am with a statement from Boris Johnson on the Brexit deal he has negotiated with the EU, followed by questions.
The actual motion on the deal follows afterwards, to be opened by another minister.
It is only when this debate begins that we will know which amendments have been selected for a vote by the Speaker, John Bercow.
The number of amendments will affect the length of the process, so the key vote could come any time from mid-afternoon to early evening.
Also on the order paper is the European Union (Withdrawal) (No. 2) Act – better known as the Benn Act.
This is the backbench-created law that would compel Johnson to seek a Brexit extension if his deal is not passed. The Lords is also sitting to consider the same two issues.


 
sammsky1 said:
Brexit 'super Saturday': your guide to the big day
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/oct/18/brexit-super-saturday-will-the-deal-pass

What is the schedule for Saturday?
The Commons convenes at 9.30am with a statement from Boris Johnson on the Brexit deal he has negotiated with the EU, followed by questions.
The actual motion on the deal follows afterwards, to be opened by another minister.
It is only when this debate begins that we will know which amendments have been selected for a vote by the Speaker, John Bercow.
The number of amendments will affect the length of the process, so the key vote could come any time from mid-afternoon to early evening.
Also on the order paper is the European Union (Withdrawal) (No. 2) Act – better known as the Benn Act.
This is the backbench-created law that would compel Johnson to seek a Brexit extension if his deal is not passed. The Lords is also sitting to consider the same two issues.
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Why is the benn act on the order paper - thought that had been passed into law?

as for the amendments I suspect 4 to 6 to be selected... an official labour one and an official snp one - I imagine there will be a referendum option and then presumably a couple of others (probably something about no deal if a deal isnt approved from the ERG and a couple of others)... I suspect the only ones of any real note will be the bill un-amended and the bill with a confirmatory referendum
 
InLevyITrust said:
It really is laughable, as most people probably know I am a Unionist but how anyone can vote for, or even like these clowns is beyond me. Problem is there are NO other Unionist candidates, UUP are weak, TUV are week and even more bigoted than the DUP. I may not like Sinn Fein but as a political party they are head and shoulders above anything the Unionist side can offer. Its even funnier still that its the DUP themselves that has probably made the biggest step towards a boarder poll in the last 20 years.
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As a Nationalist I clearly cant comprehend the DUP. I dont see them as having any sort of strategy other than being "hardline" and against everything. And as you mentioned SF have their shit together basically. There is a strategy and you have the sense that everything is well thought out. Im not a SF voter btw, but I can see what they are trying to do and you can see their strategy around things.

I always have the feeling that the DUP just look at the Nationalist community as the enemy or a threat -they dont take a level headed approach to it. When what they fail to realise is that there is a huge population of moderate nationalists who really arent too bothered or pushy about achieving a UI at all. They would take it if it came along of course but they arent ever going to get too pushy about it. And if the DUP took a strategic view on things like abortion rights, the ILA, and same sex marriage then those moderate Nationalists are most likely to say "You know what we have everything they have in the South, I can choose to be Irish, there is no border, we pretty much have equality and this will do me just fine, why rock the boat pushing for a UI?"

As it is the more hardline the DUP go on these things, the more likely they are to swing those moderate nationalists towards a more republican style view.

They just go about everything all wrong and Brexit is the same.

Probably a post for the NI thread but threw it in on the back of your post here.
 
Rooney24 said:
As a Nationalist I clearly cant comprehend the DUP. I dont see them as having any sort of strategy other than being "hardline" and against everything. And as you mentioned SF have their shit together basically. There is a strategy and you have the sense that everything is well thought out. Im not a SF voter btw, but I can see what they are trying to do and you can see their strategy around things.

I always have the feeling that the DUP just look at the Nationalist community as the enemy or a threat -they dont take a level headed approach to it. When what they fail to realise is that there is a huge population of moderate nationalists who really arent too bothered or pushy about achieving a UI at all. They would take it if it came along of course but they arent ever going to get too pushy about it. And if the DUP took a strategic view on things like abortion rights, the ILA, and same sex marriage then those moderate Nationalists are most likely to say "You know what we have everything they have in the South, I can choose to be Irish, there is no border, we pretty much have equality and this will do me just fine, why rock the boat pushing for a UI?"

As it is the more hardline the DUP go on these things, the more likely they are to swing those moderate nationalists towards a more republican style view.

They just go about everything all wrong and Brexit is the same.

Probably a post for the NI thread but threw it in on the back of your post here.
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Cant disagree with any of that, I simply don't vote anymore. The DUP are were simply the go to party for people who didn't want a UI, their views on gay marriage and abortion just fall in line with old school protestant church goers and don't really represent anyone else and even that has changed here with most people. Foster needs to go along with Wilson and Dodds, there are relic politicians who have failed over and over.
 
sun_tzu said:
Why is the benn act on the order paper - thought that had been passed into law?

as for the amendments I suspect 4 to 6 to be selected... an official labour one and an official snp one - I imagine there will be a referendum option and then presumably a couple of others (probably something about no deal if a deal isnt approved from the ERG and a couple of others)... I suspect the only ones of any real note will be the bill un-amended and the bill with a confirmatory referendum
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Not sure why Benn act is there. Maybe as a reminder and as critical context?

It's going to be epic watching this, and posting about it as it happens. Like an ECL final!

Bookmakers will have a field day! I don't bet, but am tempted to open up an account, put in £200 for the day, and see what happens.
 
sammsky1 said:
Not sure why Benn act is there. Maybe as a reminder and as critical context?

It's going to be epic watching this, and posting about it as it happens. Like an ECL final!

Bookmakers will have a field day! I don't bet, but am tempted to open up an account, put in £200 for the day, and see what happens.
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Actually I saw something about changing the wording of the benn act (i think to close a potential loophole)
https://www.politicshome.com/news/u...every-single-amendment-tabled-brexit-deal-mps
 


So essentially if Letwin amendment passes which appears plausible then tomorrow becomes a far less significant day.
 
Smores said:
I can't even fathom how anyone could think voting for Boris deal is common sense. It would be an act equivalent to the Lib dems turning on their own voters to join the Tory government.

It's telling that it's mainly the Labour MPs stepping down that are saying they'll vote leave. I'd be very surprised if they dont get favourable jobs in the future.
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While I am in favour of remaining, let me explain my view.
Many Labour MP'S represent Leave constituencies. That is a fact.
If they manage to defeat the Boris deal, there is likely to be a vote of no confidence and a GE.
At this stage a GE is unadvisable, especially for the Labour party.
The country, in the main doesn't seem to want even more chaos and uncertainty of a GE and there would be a backlash against Labour by many for preventing Brexit.
For a number of reasons, Labour is not likely to win such a GE. In particular Jeremy Corbyn is not widely seen as an electable PM.
In that event, the Tories would win with an increased majority thus allowing them more licence to implement more right wing policies over the next 5 years as well as 'getting Brexit done' anyway.
Labour's only chance of winning an election is by getting rid of Jeremy and replacing him with someone with election winning credibility.
 
BobbyManc said:


So essentially if Letwin amendment passes which appears plausible then tomorrow becomes a far less significant day.
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I believe the letwin bill amendment is predominantly aimed at ensuring that an extesnion is requested in case something like the following happens
Boris Bill is passed on Saturday (so he does not currently have to ask for an extension)
But If the bill was to be delayed past 31st by the Lords or the bill was to be rejected in ins second reading then there is no legislation in place to ask for an extension... i think the bill essentially seeks to close that loophole

But if the bill including any amendments is rejected tomorrow then we are in exactly the same place we were (i.e. Boris has to ask for an extension - and apparently he would rather be dead in a ditch)
 
Rooney24 said:
Honestly I would wager decent Money on it that that is not too far off the mark although they would never admit to it. In simplistic terms they probably went for it because in their ideal scenario they saw a UK (including NI) fully out of the EU, and a Republic of Ireland left behind in it. And in their minds that made the possibility of a UI more difficult than ever. They never foreseen any of the real issues or problems at all.

It makes me laugh when I see them on the News last night saying that this deal destroys the GFA, an Agreement that they campaigned against and never signed up to.
Click to expand...

I've been thinking along similar lines, they definitely backed leave because they thought it would bring us closer to Britain and further from Ireland. Problem for them is they can't see past their bitterness and they're largely too stupid to have seen where Brexit would likely lead given the GFA.

Once Brexit was a reality there were only two real possibilities if we actually left. Leaving with No Deal which moves up the timescale for a United Ireland given what it would do the the cross border economy or leaving with a deal and a likely border down the Irish sea which i think also accelerates the timescale for a United Ireland.

From a Unionist point of view they couldn't have judged this whole thing more laughably wrong if they'd tried.

Rooney24 said:
As a Nationalist I clearly cant comprehend the DUP. I dont see them as having any sort of strategy other than being "hardline" and against everything. And as you mentioned SF have their shit together basically. There is a strategy and you have the sense that everything is well thought out. Im not a SF voter btw, but I can see what they are trying to do and you can see their strategy around things.

I always have the feeling that the DUP just look at the Nationalist community as the enemy or a threat -they dont take a level headed approach to it. When what they fail to realise is that there is a huge population of moderate nationalists who really arent too bothered or pushy about achieving a UI at all. They would take it if it came along of course but they arent ever going to get too pushy about it. And if the DUP took a strategic view on things like abortion rights, the ILA, and same sex marriage then those moderate Nationalists are most likely to say "You know what we have everything they have in the South, I can choose to be Irish, there is no border, we pretty much have equality and this will do me just fine, why rock the boat pushing for a UI?"

As it is the more hardline the DUP go on these things, the more likely they are to swing those moderate nationalists towards a more republican style view.

They just go about everything all wrong and Brexit is the same.

Probably a post for the NI thread but threw it in on the back of your post here.
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Yeah they should have realized 5-10 years ago with the way demographics are going that they needed to become more moderate and try to appeal to some nationalists and sell remaining in the Union to them. But again they can't see past their own bitterness so they've just doubled down. Which is hardly surprising when most of their members are small minded bigots riddled with fear and paranoia.
 
Seems like Letwin has pretty much killed off super Saturday as there's no doubt his amendment will pass.
 
Buster15 said:
At this stage a GE is unadvisable, especially for the Labour party.
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Too true!

For Jeremy to have any chance he needs to get the Brexit deal done. He then goes hard against the Tories with other Policies in a GE.

The truth is, if Brexit is still an issue (extension/second ref etc. still in play) when the GE comes, Labour will get burned badly. The only chance of beating Boris is when his mass appeal is over and Brexit has gone; when the Lib Dem's are living on a pipe dream and their revoke fox has been shot; the Greens may still pick up a few XR followers, but won't harm Labour; the SNP will have its own concerns, since it has been shown to have had no effect on Westminster, i.e. for all Sturgeon's bluster they were unable to stop Brexit or convince anyone else to join forces with them, and a lot of would be Scottish independence voters may now be having second thoughts. Finally a lot of the traditional Labour voters, especially 'up north' who deserted for the Brexit Party (one issue party) may well return.

Jeremy has done well to ride the Brexit wave until now, but he's suffered two body blows. One he couldn't get other party's to let him be the interim leader of a GNU and secondly his toleration of some of Momentum's more extreme bullying activities, behind the scenes in the Party, have wounded him as a leader. In the perception of Leadership stakes, Boris firing the 21 Tories who broke ranks overshadowed Jeremy's seemingly futile attempts to bring some in his party to heel.

Jeremy has to be seen to support the Deal, play the "country over party etc." card, that's the price he has to pay. Let the Gun-smoke clear then go for the jugular. Its true Boris might retain some lingering support for his Brexit exploits, but his popularity (inside and outside the Tory Party)will fade rapidly when he will as usual continue to put his foot in it, especially once he jettisoned his Brexit 'war cabinet' and starts to bring back remainers.
 
Maticmaker said:
Too true!

For Jeremy to have any chance he needs to get the Brexit deal done. He then goes hard against the Tories with other Policies in a GE.

The truth is, if Brexit is still an issue (extension/second ref etc. still in play) when the GE comes, Labour will get burned badly. The only chance of beating Boris is when his mass appeal is over and Brexit has gone; when the Lib Dem's are living on a pipe dream and their revoke fox has been shot; the Greens may still pick up a few XR followers, but won't harm Labour; the SNP will have its own concerns, since it has been shown to have had no effect on Westminster, i.e. for all Sturgeon's bluster they were unable to stop Brexit or convince anyone else to join forces with them, and a lot of would be Scottish independence voters may now be having second thoughts. Finally a lot of the traditional Labour voters, especially 'up north' who deserted for the Brexit Party (one issue party) may well return.

Jeremy has done well to ride the Brexit wave until now, but he's suffered two body blows. One he couldn't get other party's to let him be the interim leader of a GNU and secondly his toleration of some of Momentum's more extreme bullying activities, behind the scenes in the Party, have wounded him as a leader. In the perception of Leadership stakes, Boris firing the 21 Tories who broke ranks overshadowed Jeremy's seemingly futile attempts to bring some in his party to heel.

Jeremy has to be seen to support the Deal, play the "country over party etc." card, that's the price he has to pay. Let the Gun-smoke clear then go for the jugular. Its true Boris might retain some lingering support for his Brexit exploits, but his popularity (inside and outside the Tory Party)will fade rapidly when he will as usual continue to put his foot in it, especially once he jettisoned his Brexit 'war cabinet' and starts to bring back remainers.
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perhaps the best way out would be for an official labour amendment to be to add in the stuff from cross party talks with may (workers and environmental) subject to a confirmatory referendum ... that might be enough to get the libs and SNP plus a good chunk of the independents - it could pass and would let him say he made a difference to the brexit deal...

he would still be free then to campaign against it on the basis of it being a tory deal?

Doubt they will try that as I think they still cling onto the (misplaced IMO) hope that either Corbyn can be put in charge of a GNU or that they can win an election
 
Buster15 said:
While I am in favour of remaining, let me explain my view.
Many Labour MP'S represent Leave constituencies. That is a fact.
If they manage to defeat the Boris deal, there is likely to be a vote of no confidence and a GE.
At this stage a GE is unadvisable, especially for the Labour party.
The country, in the main doesn't seem to want even more chaos and uncertainty of a GE and there would be a backlash against Labour by many for preventing Brexit.
For a number of reasons, Labour is not likely to win such a GE. In particular Jeremy Corbyn is not widely seen as an electable PM.
In that event, the Tories would win with an increased majority thus allowing them more licence to implement more right wing policies over the next 5 years as well as 'getting Brexit done' anyway.
Labour's only chance of winning an election is by getting rid of Jeremy and replacing him with someone with election winning credibility.
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All very sensible and mirrors a lot of my own thinking.

As discussed before in this thread, Corbyn’s core issue is he loses Labour sympathetic progressive left centrists with his stance on policies like private schools and inheritance, forcing this majority casting vote to find political homes elsewhere. Lib Dem’s are now feasting in this space

The side issue with Corbyn, in this era of populist cult leaders, is the lack of serious alternative candidates who can for that bill, and unify the left and centrist left vote bank.
 
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sammsky1 said:
All very sensible and mirrors a lot of my own thinking.

The side issue with Corbyn, in this era of populist cult leaders, is the lack of serious alternative candidates who can for that bill.

Corbyn’s core issue is he loses progressive left centrists with his stance on policies like private schools and inheritance, forcing the majority casting vote to find homes elsewhere.
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I think Jess Phillips has enough personality to do well in the current environment...

eg her twitter bio

Jess Phillips Esq., M.P.
@jessphillips
Labour MP for Birmingham Yardley http://jessphillips.net Sordid, Unseemly & Grotesque according to a little man on the internet.
Birmingham, EnglandJoined February 2009



Dont think momentum would approve of her though as I doubt they could control her
 
sun_tzu said:
he would still be free then to campaign against it on the basis of it being a tory deal?
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No, campaign for it! Let the Tories take the credit now, the blame later if as predicted everything goes t**s up.

TBH I've always thought Jeremy's aim was to take Power, that he would not make the mistake of other left wingers and stand on the side-lines pulling faces. To be as ruthless (and disgusting) as Boris was in becoming PM. Brexit has gone, Boris's deal is the best we will get whilst the country remains split over Brexit. Boris has more or less silenced the ERG, shafted the DUP and may well restore the whip to at least 18 of the 21 rebels.

The Brexit battle has passed for Labour/Jeremy, but the Brexit peace is still to be won. Jeremy and his team need to be the ones negotiating the second phase on Trade matters, he can align his requirements on workers rights etc. because he will be PM and hopefully have a workable majority. Its the same with everything else via Brexit the control will be restored to Westminster and he and the Labour party need to be holding sway in that particular 'Palace' when it does.

When I was in my twenties I would have followed such as Jeremy to the ends of the earth. However as I grew older I realised that all these so called 'true Socialist leaders' were nothing of the kind, yes they espoused Socialism, were able to rouse a crowd, but had no idea how to lead. As I've got older I have become more Conservative (with a small 'c') and every other Labour Leader I've seen in my lifetime, were leaders, but not true socialists. Tories nearly always had good leaders and in fact all though I know I will get howled down for this, they have benefitted the working man more than Labour has and have been able to see off even hard cases like Arthur Scargill.

Tories know how to pick their battles and for once with Jeremy I thought Labour might (by accident i.e having his name added to list of leadership candidates, when he was unable to muster enough supporters) have got one who has not changed his political views and might turn out to be a leader AND A SOCIALIST!

TBH I'm not sure the 'Socialism' espoused nowadays is the one I hoped for in my youth, but before I pass over I would (secretly not even my close friends know this)) like to see one real socialist have a go at the 'big job'. Forget Brexit Jeremy, "eyes on the prize lad".
 
sun_tzu said:
Unfortunatley the prize he sees is purging the party of blairites
Even if he won an election (and I cant see it) hes finished politically once the EHRC report comes out
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I wouldn't count on it! It depends on how he conducts himself now as a leader and as PM in waiting.

Jeremy can't afford to make anymore enemies within the Party, or allow his disciples to 'hound' others out, Blairites or whatever and especially Jewish people who are being harassed and threatened, that's not the sort of Socialism I was once attracted to. Brexit has given Jeremy a lifeline to succeed, after the battle, winning the Brexit peace is the name of the game.

If he doesn't grasp that, the party will explode underneath him.
 
Maticmaker said:
Too true!

For Jeremy to have any chance he needs to get the Brexit deal done. He then goes hard against the Tories with other Policies in a GE.

The truth is, if Brexit is still an issue (extension/second ref etc. still in play) when the GE comes, Labour will get burned badly. The only chance of beating Boris is when his mass appeal is over and Brexit has gone; when the Lib Dem's are living on a pipe dream and their revoke fox has been shot; the Greens may still pick up a few XR followers, but won't harm Labour; the SNP will have its own concerns, since it has been shown to have had no effect on Westminster, i.e. for all Sturgeon's bluster they were unable to stop Brexit or convince anyone else to join forces with them, and a lot of would be Scottish independence voters may now be having second thoughts. Finally a lot of the traditional Labour voters, especially 'up north' who deserted for the Brexit Party (one issue party) may well return.

Jeremy has done well to ride the Brexit wave until now, but he's suffered two body blows. One he couldn't get other party's to let him be the interim leader of a GNU and secondly his toleration of some of Momentum's more extreme bullying activities, behind the scenes in the Party, have wounded him as a leader. In the perception of Leadership stakes, Boris firing the 21 Tories who broke ranks overshadowed Jeremy's seemingly futile attempts to bring some in his party to heel.

Jeremy has to be seen to support the Deal, play the "country over party etc." card, that's the price he has to pay. Let the Gun-smoke clear then go for the jugular. Its true Boris might retain some lingering support for his Brexit exploits, but his popularity (inside and outside the Tory Party)will fade rapidly when he will as usual continue to put his foot in it, especially once he jettisoned his Brexit 'war cabinet' and starts to bring back remainers.
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My view entirely with the exception of Jeremy going for Boris jugular.
He is nothing like strong, clever or forceful enough.
Give Boris time and he will hang himself but Labour, if they are serious about wanting to form a government, will have to do it with another leader.
 
sammsky1 said:
All very sensible and mirrors a lot of my own thinking.

As discussed before in this thread, Corbyn’s core issue is he loses Labour sympathetic progressive left centrists with his stance on policies like private schools and inheritance, forcing thid majority casting vote to find political homes elsewhere. Lib Dem’s are now feasting in this space

The side issue with Corbyn, in this era of populist cult leaders, is the lack of serious alternative candidates who can for that bill, and unify the left and centrist left vote bank.
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I agree about the Liberals. She is turning them into a one policy party. And that is a serious mistake.

Another reason to accept the Boris deal would be to kill off the Brexit party and with it their detestable leader Farrage.
 
BBC said:
Boris Johnson has suggested there is "no better outcome" than the Brexit deal he is putting forward.

In an interview with the BBC, the prime minister said: "There's no better outcome than the one I'm advocating tomorrow."

Urging MPs to come together and support the deal he secured in Brussels on Thursday, Mr Johnson said there was now a "chance to move on".

He said: "I just kind of invite everybody to imagine what it could be like tomorrow evening, if we have settled this, and we have respected the will of the people, because we will then have a chance to move on.
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I’ve literally never met a single remainer who “just wants Brexit done now” or wants us to “respect the result at all costs” yet BBC news seems to be interviewing a new one of these every night.
 
Apparently gove and raab briefing the erg that the way to get no deal is to sign up to the Boris deal and then if trade talks are not concluded in 2 years (and they probably won't be) then we default to WTO and leave on those terms
Erg apparently going to get pm to confirm that would happen at the dispatch box in order to agree to back the deal.
Suspect that although this will bring some hard brexit votes on board it may loose some anti no deal votes
I Still think he will loose tomorrow even if he can buy the dup votes
 
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