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Do you think there will be a Deal or No Deal?

  • Total voters
    194
  • Poll closed .
Just do a leave/remain ref with the option on the same form that if leave wins which version Mays or No Deal.

It's not hard to conclude a mandate. Then leavers get to enforce their will if they do have a majority and even if remainers lose they at least get to choose between the two leave outcomes.

If you're taking it out of parliaments hands then do it all the way. All Boris has to do is put forward a motion for a statement that the house will respect a people's vote result. He can then cry victory that he's given the people the power.
 
Smores said:
Just do a leave/remain ref with the option on the same form that if leave wins which version Mays or No Deal.

It's not hard to conclude a mandate. Then leavers get to enforce their will if they do have a majority and even if remainers lose they at least get to choose between the two leave outcomes.

If you're taking it out of parliaments hands then do it all the way. All Boris has to do is put forward a motion for a statement that the house will respect a people's vote result. He can then cry victory that he's given the people the power.
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BJ knows that's absolute suicide! Remain would smash leave now.
 
Wednesday at Stoke said:
Revoking A50 would be another mockery of referendum and democracy. Brexit will have to happen, its a matter of which interpretation of it happens and how to so soften the blow. The opposition will have to run against Johnson on a platform based on some version of a deal May negotiated, whether they like it or not.
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Err why’s that then? Because that’s how democracy has been described by one side? A slim majority in an advisory referendum when nobody had the first clue about what Brexit might actually mean? A referendum where the largest two campaigns on the winning side actually partook in criminal activities to boost their chances of winning and both leave campaigns were absolutely chock full of promises that have now been proven to be absolute fantasy. We’ve gone from blissful sovereign heaven to “some people will die due to medicine shortages but it’s a price we must pay” and “we probably won’t need to ration food but it will be more expensive”.

In light of the stark contrast between promises and reality, it would be incredibly undemocratic to deny people the chance to change their mind in light of actual facts.
 
Paul the Wolf said:
No, the UK can leave but face the consequences of leaving which they don't seem to want to do.
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This is the thing it was always going to be a wrench. The key problem is the inability to do 3rd party trade deals. I'm not sure whether it would have been possible to have negotiated continuation 3rd party deals (but not sign) before triggering A50 so they were good to go once we left. A bit like ensuring you have another job to go to before you resign.
 
Paul the Wolf said:
But the uncertainty can't go on forever, at some point everyone has to move on. Uncertainty is still harming the UK, not as much as leaving will but even the uncertainty will make businesses take decisions they have possibly managed to postpone so far but can't do indefinitely.
I don't really have a vested interested now I've gained french citizenship and will never live in the UK again and nor do I want it to end badly but it won't go away.
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It can’t go on forever but the chance of it ending with some form of deal and prolonging till then is better than leaving without one. The fact EU leaders have already indicated they will accept a request for an extension shows they share similar sentiments.
 
Pexbo said:
Err why’s that then? Because that’s how democracy has been described by one side? A slim majority in an advisory referendum when nobody had the first clue about what Brexit might actually mean? A referendum where the largest two campaigns on the winning side actually partook in criminal activities to boost their chances of winning and both leave campaigns were absolutely chock full of promises that have now been proven to be absolute fantasy. We’ve gone from blissful sovereign heaven to “some people will die due to medicine shortages but it’s a price we must pay” and “we probably won’t need to ration food but it will be more expensive”.

In light of the stark contrast between promises and reality, it would be incredibly undemocratic to deny people the chance to change their mind in light of actual facts.
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Sure if you run a second referendum and the result is 51-49 remain, what then? Run another referendum and call it the third time charm?

The two sides have gotten more polarised with time and a second referendum will again draw out more nutters who will go violent and other malignant actors who will run misinformation campaigns. Its not like the voting population has gotten wiser over a few short years or realised that they have to vote with their brains and not with their passions or whims.
 
T00lsh3d said:
It can’t go on forever but the chance of it ending with some form of deal and prolonging till then is better than leaving without one. The fact EU leaders have already indicated they will accept a request for an extension shows they share similar sentiments.
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Maybe but if they extend to end January, for example, they may not want to extend further if nothing has advanced in the meantime, then what?
 
Wise move from Labour to delay I feel. They'll get the party conference to hash out a proper position and manifesto, and be ready for the battlegrounds. Their strategists will need a month or so to sort out battleground constistuences.

Also seems like they are working in more cooperation with the Lib Dems now, though every time Swinson opens her trap it looks like it may torpedo it. They'll both need to play nice to achieve their aims. Wonder who's running liasion; Corbyn is definitely staying on message more and not running riot alone.
 
Paul the Wolf said:
Maybe but if they extend to end January, for example, they may not want to extend further if nothing has advanced in the meantime, then what?
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I don’t know what will happen between now and then. If you’d asked 7 days ago what the position will be today I doubt anyone would have got it right. That’s why I have presented this argument as ‘whilst there is still a chance, it should be celebrated’.
 
Honest John said:
This is the thing it was always going to be a wrench. The key problem is the inability to do 3rd party trade deals. I'm not sure whether it would have been possible to have negotiated continuation 3rd party deals (but not sign) before triggering A50 so they were good to go once we left. A bit like ensuring you have another job to go to before you resign.
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Fox was extending deals to last through the transition period, which may or may not happen. Difficult to negotiate third party deals when you don't know what relationship you will have with the EU which will affect the type of agreement you with the 3rd party.
 
T00lsh3d said:
It can’t go on forever but the chance of it ending with some form of deal and prolonging till then is better than leaving without one. The fact EU leaders have already indicated they will accept a request for an extension shows they share similar sentiments.
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May's deal would have been the best thing. That would have taken the UK out and government could have sorted out the rest from there. But at least there would have been certainty. But the degree of entrenchment in the house is staggering. I can't see anything getting through.
 
Wednesday at Stoke said:
Sure if you run a second referendum and the result is 51-49 remain, what then? Run another referendum and call it the third time charm?

The two sides have gotten more polarised with time and a second referendum will again draw out more nutters who will go violent and other malignant actors who will run misinformation campaigns. Its not like the voting population has gotten wiser over a few short years or realised that they have to vote with their brains and not with their passions or whims.
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It wouldn't even be tight. Remain were horribly Blasé and ran a terrible half hearted campaign last time. Corbyn basically sad on his arse the entire time. Labour know now that they need the issue gone fast, or they'll be ripped apart just like the tories have been. Younger people would vote way more and there would be way less complacency all round.
 
owlo said:
Wise move from Labour to delay I feel. They'll get the party conference to hash out a proper position and manifesto, and be ready for the battlegrounds. Their strategists will need a month or so to sort out battleground constistuences.

Also seems like they are working in more cooperation with the Lib Dems now, though every time Swinson opens her trap it looks like it may torpedo it. They'll both need to play nice to achieve their aims. Wonder who's running liasion; Corbyn is definitely staying on message more and not running riot alone.
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I was listening to a podcast yesterday and they mentioned the possibility of the parliament sending the speaker to Brussels to further negotiate with the EU leaders and possibly delay the deadline if Boris insists on squatting in #10 if he doesn't get a hard brexit. Then they can have the election in November and live with the possibility of a different ending.
 
owlo said:
Wise move from Labour to delay I feel. They'll get the party conference to hash out a proper position and manifesto, and be ready for the battlegrounds. Their strategists will need a month or so to sort out battleground constistuences.

Also seems like they are working in more cooperation with the Lib Dems now, though every time Swinson opens her trap it looks like it may torpedo it. They'll both need to play nice to achieve their aims. Wonder who's running liasion; Corbyn is definitely staying on message more and not running riot alone.
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Yeah I agree. You only have to look at Thornberry last night to see the current Brexit position is one that is both confusing and ridiculous on equal measure, and something I doubt the public will vote for.
 
Pexbo said:
Err why’s that then? Because that’s how democracy has been described by one side? A slim majority in an advisory referendum when nobody had the first clue about what Brexit might actually mean? A referendum where the largest two campaigns on the winning side actually partook in criminal activities to boost their chances of winning and both leave campaigns were absolutely chock full of promises that have now been proven to be absolute fantasy. We’ve gone from blissful sovereign heaven to “some people will die due to medicine shortages but it’s a price we must pay” and “we probably won’t need to ration food but it will be more expensive”.

In light of the stark contrast between promises and reality, it would be incredibly undemocratic to deny people the chance to change their mind in light of actual facts.
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A wise head on young shoulders
 
owlo said:
It wouldn't even be tight. Remain were horribly Blasé and ran a terrible half hearted campaign last time. Corbyn basically sad on his arse the entire time. Labour know now that they need the issue gone fast, or they'll be ripped apart just like the tories have been. Younger people would vote way more and there would be way less complacency all round.
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To me, this just feels like hopeful fantasy fostered by non-Tories to avoid brainstorming their vision for Brexit and how to accomplish it. Labour has as many divisions within them and perhaps more than the Tories which is being conveniently hidden now because they are not in power.
 
owlo said:
BJ knows that's absolute suicide! Remain would smash leave now.
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It is for the tory party in the short term yeah. I really don't think the left have done enough to paint the picture that a referendum is the only reasonable direction. They've half arsed the argument allowing Tories to paint it as obstructive rather than empowering.
 
Classical Mechanic said:
It is hotel California though really, which Eurozone country could leave without crippling their economy?
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No other country would leave though, they know leaving the EU whether in the Eurozone or not will severely damage their economy, Eurozone is an added complication admittedly as the GFA is for the UK.
But it's the EU countries themselves that have decided to operate this way.

Anyone can leave but there are consequences.
 
Honest John said:
May's deal would have been the best thing. That would have taken the UK out and government could have sorted out the rest from there. But at least there would have been certainty. But the degree of entrenchment in the house is staggering. I can't see anything getting through.
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Who would have thought that in such a short space of time May looks increasingly competent. Not very competent mind, but nothing like the insanity that’s being served up at the moment.
I agree about the entrenchment in the house, but it feels like it won’t go on forever. The Brexiteer leading element just feels like it will implode on itself at some point. It’s just too divisive and ill-tempered for a long game
 
Wednesday at Stoke said:
Sure if you run a second referendum and the result is 51-49 remain, what then? Run another referendum and call it the third time charm?

The two sides have gotten more polarised with time and a second referendum will again draw out more nutters who will go violent and other malignant actors who will run misinformation campaigns. Its not like the voting population has gotten wiser over a few short years or realised that they have to vote with their brains and not with their passions or whims.
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The next referendum would have to be binding rather than advisory and the referendum based on clear cut options, a concrete deal which could be accepted and triggered the following day, the terms of which can be spelled out in plain English and read by anyone who actually cares and the option to remain for anyone who doesn’t like the terms of the deal.

At least that way campaigns can be demonstrably true or false and people know what they are voting for this time. The fact of the matter is that it was an advisory referendum last time and it’s only because May was desperate to please the hard Brexiters in the party that she lead us off the cliff with “Brexit means Brexit” and invoked Article 50 before we had a fecking clue what any of it meant.

With a sensible government, that referendum should have been nothing more than the first step towards leaving the EU, talks should have been opened in good faith with the EU and a period of negotiation and transparent discussion with the public on what we actually want to achieve.

The reason we are in this mess is because we jumped off a cliff and then had a limited amount of time trying to figure out what we wanted to land on before we actually hit it. There’s absolutely no reason why this shouldn’t have been a 5 or 10 year process and gradual, amicable divorce. The only reason it hasn’t been is because a bunch of elites are desperate to short the pound and keep their offshore accounts out of sight.
 
Wednesday at Stoke said:
To me, this just feels like hopeful fantasy fostered by non-Tories to avoid brainstorming their vision for Brexit and how to accomplish it. Labour has as many divisions within them and perhaps more than the Tories which is being conveniently hidden now because they are not in power.
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If it was, then leavers would be far more enthusiastic about the option. They aren't because it isn't.

And it's true labour have just as many divisions, which is exactly why it needs to go back to the people. Labour leavers can campaign and vote leave again.
 
Wibble said:
Retain the possibility of an outcome less terrible than leaving with no deal.
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I understand but it's just hoping. People seem to have lost sight that whilst a no deal Brexit will be catastrophic any kind of Brexit will be very bad for the country - so really many people (other than leavers) are hoping for revocation but neither of the leaders of the two main parties want to do so.
 
diarm said:
I don't fully understand where Rees Mogg gets his confidence.

I don't wish to appear like I condone bullying, but there can't be many schools on the planet where he wouldn't have ended up with at least a small stammer or a nervous twitch?
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When you win competitions like these:




... you will understand.
 
Paul the Wolf said:
I understand but it's just hoping. People seem to have lost sight that whilst a no deal Brexit will be catastrophic any kind of Brexit will be very bad for the country - so really many people (other than leavers) are hoping for revocation but neither of the leaders of the two main parties want to do so.
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Any hope is better than no hope and things are so chaotic and rapidly evolving who can possibly predict how it will all end?
 
In a referendum the phrasing of the question will decide the outcome.

Option 1)
A: Leave or remain?
B: if leave, with or without a deal?

Option 2)
A: leave the EU with no deal yes/no?
B: if no, leave without a deal or remain?

Option 3)
A: leave the EU without a deal yes/no?
B: if no, leave with a deal or remain?

The obvious choice is the first one, but the outcome could be very different depending on which way round it is “filtered”.

I actually think the best option would be a three-way choice where you can choose your first and second preference, and then whichever of the three original choices has the fewest votes is scrapped, with second choice (for those who voted for that option) then taking over.

The whole situation is a mess, but I’m enjoying watching Bojo struggle, and even moreso some semblance of unity from the opposition and anti-no-dealers. It does suggest that the public will be able to have their before this is over after all.
 
Pexbo said:
The next referendum would have to be binding rather than advisory and the referendum based on clear cut options, a concrete deal which could be accepted and triggered the following day, the terms of which can be spelled out in plain English and read by anyone who actually cares and the option to remain for anyone who doesn’t like the terms of the deal.

At least that way campaigns can be demonstrably true or false and people know what they are voting for this time. The fact of the matter is that it was an advisory referendum last time and it’s only because May was desperate to please the hard Brexiters in the party that she lead us off the cliff with “Brexit means Brexit” and invoked Article 50 before we had a fecking clue what any of it meant.

With a sensible government, that referendum should have been nothing more than the first step towards leaving the EU, talks should have been opened in good faith with the EU and a period of negotiation and transparent discussion with the public on what we actually want to achieve.

The reason we are in this mess is because we jumped off a cliff and then had a limited amount of time trying to figure out what we wanted to land on before we actually hit it. There’s absolutely no reason why this shouldn’t have been a 5 or 10 year process and gradual, amicable divorce. The only reason it hasn’t been is because a bunch of elites are desperate to short the pound and keep their offshore accounts out of sight.
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This all sounds excellent to read but you are craving certainty, honesty and a transparent process in a country and a broader political world that is willing to offer anything but. Leaving behind what has already happened, if you assume that there are multiple deals being put up for vote in a referendum, people can still spin each one in many different ways. It did not even take Johnson and Farage much to spin the tory austerity measures into stories about the NHS going bankrupt due to EU payments or regulation on chips to manufacture outrage out of nothing, now imagine what else they along with their conservative media cronies could do when given material.

The best way might still be to first negotiate a further extension, let the parliament debate many different negotiation points, pick the best of many bad options and move on. Another referendum is simply not feasible.
 
T00lsh3d said:
Who would have thought that in such a short space of time May looks increasingly competent. Not very competent mind, but nothing like the insanity that’s being served up at the moment.
I agree about the entrenchment in the house, but it feels like it won’t go on forever. The Brexiteer leading element just feels like it will implode on itself at some point. It’s just too divisive and ill-tempered for a long game
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Johnson's only chance to fulfill what he promised now is to bring Mays deal back with 'clarifications' and threaten the ERG that he will remove the whip from them also if they don't vote for it. That will as least go some way to make a statement that he is actually against no-deal and would not prorogue to let the country crash and burn. If it fails again then he may get a GE through if he de-whips the ERG. It's scorched earth but it's either that or ask for an extension or resign and even if he did that I do not know what the next step would be.
 
Honest John said:
Johnson's only chance to fulfill what he promised now is to bring Mays deal back with 'clarifications' and threaten the ERG that he will remove the whip from them also if they don't vote for it. That will as least go some way to make a statement that he is actually against no-deal and would not prorogue to let the country crash and burn. If it fails again then he may get a GE through if he de-whips the ERG. It's scorched earth but it's either that or ask for an extension or resign and even if he did that I do not know what the next step would be.
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Country would probably be better for it if political parties were banned in their entirety, with every MP acting as an independent. Although obvious you would need to tweak some rules in order to ever get anything passed.
 
T00lsh3d said:
Uncertainty is better than a drastic drop off a cliff. For that matter, anything is better than a drastic drop off a cliff, even if it only gives a glimmer of hope. We bemoan people who say “I’m bored of this now, let’s just have no deal and get on with it”. I’m surprised someone who clearly has a vested interest is basically adopting that attitude. Unless, of course, you do want it to end badly
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To anyone stupid enough to actually think that leaving the EU without a deal is going to be the end of all the Brexit problems, please stop and think for a few minutes.
Far from being the end of anything, it will just be the start of the real problems.
Even leaving with a withdrawal agreement will not be the end. It just makes for a smoother transition.
The next stage will be agreement of the future trading arrangements with Europe.
In reality, the only real end to Brexit would indeed be withdrawing A50 and the only way that could possibly happen would be a second referendum.
 
MikeUpNorth said:
I’m wondering that myself. What would actually happen if he ignored the legislation and refused to send the letter requesting an extension?

I guess it would end up at the Supreme Court. Who knows what would happen there. They may rule that if parliament believes the PM not to be obeying the law, the correct solution is for parliament to remove him through a vote of no confidence.
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Can they rule to not rule? They'll have to give a verdict of guilty or innocent, they're the Supreme Court there's no one else higher to palm constitutional matters to.

So If a PM has a large majority, bullies his MPs to vote down any VONC and breaks every law in the land... the Supreme Court will not rule on that?
 
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Honest John said:
Johnson's only chance to fulfill what he promised now is to bring Mays deal back with 'clarifications' and threaten the ERG that he will remove the whip from them also if they don't vote for it. That will as least go some way to make a statement that he is actually against no-deal and would not prorogue to let the country crash and burn. If it fails again then he may get a GE through if he de-whips the ERG. It's scorched earth but it's either that or ask for an extension or resign and even if he did that I do not know what the next step would be.
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That would be pointless. He hasn't got the majority even if all his MPs vote in line with the whip. The opposition would vote it down and pile on his misery.
 
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