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Do you think there will be a Deal or No Deal?

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Classical Mechanic said:
Is that a sign that the Trumpian tactics they were employing are not working?

One thing about how our parliamentary democracy works is that these politicians get directly and publicly challenged on their views in commons on a fairly regular basis. It seems in America that the President is deified and protected from real scrutiny and having to qualify their views and actions.

Imagine if Trump had to do an equivalent to PMQs, it would surely be the ruin of him.
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Yeah I have a feeling Boris and his goons were going for a Trump style way of behaviour but that just won't work here.

Even horrible old Tory voters will see the likes of Rees Mogg lounging around in the House of Commons and not be in favour. And like you said they have to consistently interact with other politicians.
 
Maticmaker said:
Where do you think todays legions of pensioner tory voters come from?

They were young once and probably just as nice and idealistic as todays young, but as they grow older their perspective shifts and they realise that nice/idealistic guys tend to finish last, if they finish at all, and that just as much bullshit comes from all across the political spectrum, not just the right, and that standing and shouting in the streets can be exciting but in this country (as opposed to France) it usually achieves jack shit, except of course if you are arrested and then often police/criminal record is established that will follow you forever.

It took me years to realise that some support for left wing causes in my early twenties that saw me out on the streets had been photographed and recorded and years later stopped me getting onto short lists for certain job... obviously that can't happen now, but it did then.

The ageing process generally wears you down and slows you down, but it gives you one big advantage you begin to realise that in your youth, you knew feck all!
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This is loaded with the assumption that getting older and wiser means becoming more right-wing. I disagree that conservatism = wisdom.
 
I see the Daily Mail's front page is about Pilots going on strike and some Royal family nonsense, rather than anything about the disaster zone that is Boris.

Not a good sign for Boris that, when even the Daily Mail can't defend you and have to act like nothing is happening.
 
esmufc07 said:
Well it's risky because there is a 14 day period to try and form a new government. Highly unlikely, but there's a chance a GNU could then be formed.

There is no easy way for Johnson to get his election.
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sun_tzu said:
Yes and no
The difference is it's a confidence vote is that once Johnson fails there is a 14 day period for somebody else to form a government by showing they can carry a majority of the house of commons
I think it's unlikely anybody can... Unless labour (well Corbyn really) would coalesce around say Ken Clarke.
But it does mean that it would be 2 weeks till Johnson could call an election... Presumably he would have to recall the house of commons (I am presuming this is possible during prorogation) but given the lead in time an election requires it would (I think) mean the election would be after the EU summit and after the extension bill kicks in
Johnson might have to accept that as the only way he can get an election called but it's not exactly on the dates he wanted plus the small.risk of a gnu
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Ok, that makes sense, cheers.
 
Oldyella said:
That's..... actually not a bad move is it? Labour are either forced to support Boris, or vote against him and give them the GE that they want.
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Labour must be careful what they wish for. I doubt many in the country actually want an election.
What they do want is for this continuing chaos to be brought to a conclusion. And an election is only going to make it worse.
A second referendum is now the only way to resolve this issue.
Parliament cannot decide so it is up to us the electorate to make the decision for them.
 
Buster15 said:
Labour must be careful what they wish for. I doubt many in the country actually want an election.
What they do want is for this continuing chaos to be brought to a conclusion. And an election is only going to make it worse.
A second referendum is now the only way to resolve this issue.
Parliament cannot decide so it is up to us the electorate to make the decision for them.
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Agreed but we need to know what the deal is to have that imo. That's the start of the whole problem imo.

Remain and negotiated deal should be the options we have. No deal should not be a possible option no matter how much people pretend they want it, it's just irresponsible to have it, either that or it should require a super majority.
 
Resign?... It might actually all be a cunning Cummings plan?

If he goes for the election under the fixed term parliament act on Monday he almost certainly looses

If he resigns (as pm) on Tuesday then the queen should call upon Corbyn to try to form a government... At which point all the focus turns to labour and their brexit plan / probable inability to agree with libs etc and within 14 days that falls as it can't get a confidence vote through...
Election in theory then I believe 31st October?
Not sure who / how the extension legistlation could / would be implemented?
 
Maticmaker said:
Where do you think todays legions of pensioner tory voters come from?

They were young once and probably just as nice and idealistic as todays young, but as they grow older their perspective shifts and they realise that nice/idealistic guys tend to finish last, if they finish at all, and that just as much bullshit comes from all across the political spectrum, not just the right, and that standing and shouting in the streets can be exciting but in this country (as opposed to France) it usually achieves jack shit, except of course if you are arrested and then often police/criminal record is established that will follow you forever.

It took me years to realise that some support for left wing causes in my early twenties that saw me out on the streets had been photographed and recorded and years later stopped me getting onto short lists for certain job... obviously that can't happen now, but it did then.

The ageing process generally wears you down and slows you down, but it gives you one big advantage you begin to realise that in your youth, you knew feck all!
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The aging process has made me realise that society as a whole is far more important than the selfish mean spirited vision of the right of politics.
 
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Oldyella said:
Agreed but we need to know what the deal is to have that imo. That's the start of the whole problem imo.

Remain and negotiated deal should be the options we have. No deal should not be a possible option no matter how much people pretend they want it, it's just irresponsible to have it, either that or it should require a super majority.
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Yes of course.
Boris needs to be sent to the EU to establish once and for all the best and final deal. And that should happen by the end of October.
Whatever the outcome that should form the basis of the referendum.
 
manc exile said:
thats exactly what it is

the conservatives think (or at least want the majority to think) that the majority of the poor are poor because they are lazy and feckless and therefore deserve to be poor. Wheras the rich are rich because they are intelligent and hardworking.
hence the narrative that they always peddle that those that scam the welfare system are a major problem, whereas all the research shows they account for less than 1% of the welfare budget. The narrative drives home the message that the poor are feckless.

Whereas most of the funding issues could be solved if you could get the rich people and rich corporations to pay the taxes on their wealth that they should.
I am not saying overtax the rich, just that they should pay the same proportion of their income in tax as the poor do. currently they pay much less.
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Yep, I've made plenty since Monday over currency volatility on just 2 pairs. But it's not taxable as this method of trading is 'betting.' Absolute joke. And I'm small fry. I know institutions/people who have made over £100m just over the same period. Just one example.

Its fecking ridiculous. 99% of people I grew up work harder and smarter than me.
 
sun_tzu said:
Yes and no
The difference is it's a confidence vote is that once Johnson fails there is a 14 day period for somebody else to form a government by showing they can carry a majority of the house of commons
I think it's unlikely anybody can... Unless labour (well Corbyn really) would coalesce around say Ken Clarke.
But it does mean that it would be 2 weeks till Johnson could call an election... Presumably he would have to recall the house of commons (I am presuming this is possible during prorogation) but given the lead in time an election requires it would (I think) mean the election would be after the EU summit and after the extension bill kicks in
Johnson might have to accept that as the only way he can get an election called but it's not exactly on the dates he wanted plus the small.risk of a gnu
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Yes it's possible. Think I showed you the timeline before though, he's fecked. This is a bit outdated, but just shift the dates.

library%20graph%201.jpg
 
711 said:
That's exactly what he wants. Parliament does nothing until the default position, crashing out.
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If he doesn't seek an extension he will be breaking the law. Not quite sure what would happen in that situation. He's mandated to ask for an extension on the 19th if there's no agreed deal, so I doubt he would be able to last 12 days if he refused to do so.
 
esmufc07 said:
If he doesn't seek an extension he will be breaking the law. Not quite sure what would happen in that situation. He's mandated to ask for an extension on the 19th if there's no agreed deal, so I doubt he would be able to last 12 days if he refused to do so.
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I’m wondering that myself. What would actually happen if he ignored the legislation and refused to send the letter requesting an extension?

I guess it would end up at the Supreme Court. Who knows what would happen there. They may rule that if parliament believes the PM not to be obeying the law, the correct solution is for parliament to remove him through a vote of no confidence.
 
It's just incredibly frustrating that the brexiteers who cry will of the people like some wind up toy can't make the leap from saying let's go to a general election so the people can speak to let's just have a referendum eh? It defies logic.

In a way i dont think the peoples vote campaign has helped at all because they've made going to a people's vote into such a big loss for the government
 
MikeUpNorth said:
I’m wondering that myself. What would actually happen if he ignored the legislation and refused to send the letter requesting an extension?

I guess it would end up at the Supreme Court. Who knows what would happen there. They may rule that if parliament believes the PM not to be obeying the law, the correct solution is for parliament to remove him through a vote of no confidence.
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There's be a 14 day window with a VonC so perhaps the opposition parties will coalesce round somebody to install a temporary PM with a view to an election in November once no deal has been averted.

All just guess work at the moment though.
 
MikeUpNorth said:
I’m wondering that myself. What would actually happen if he ignored the legislation and refused to send the letter requesting an extension?

I guess it would end up at the Supreme Court. Who knows what would happen there. They may rule that if parliament believes the PM not to be obeying the law, the correct solution is for parliament to remove him through a vote of no confidence.
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He'd be out of office almost immediately. There are a lot of Tories who are willing to go along with a leadership who bend the rules, but the number who would be willing to support him trashing the constitutional system like that would be much, MUCH smaller. Even many hardcore Brexiters would turn on him in that situation.

Also worth remembering that Boris is throwing away friends left, right and centre at the moment. A large number of Tories are furious about the 21 losing the whip, and if he pushes his luck much further he's going to be spending more time looking out for daggers in the back than attacks from the opposition.
 
esmufc07 said:
If he doesn't seek an extension he will be breaking the law. Not quite sure what would happen in that situation. He's mandated to ask for an extension on the 19th if there's no agreed deal, so I doubt he would be able to last 12 days if he refused to do so.
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Oh right, I see what Ken meant now. Things moving too fast for old 711. I don't know how mandatory the mandatory vote actually is though. It's not a law as such is it?
 
711 said:
Oh right, I see what Ken meant now. Things moving too fast for old 711. I don't know how mandatory the mandatory vote actually is though. It's not a law as such is it?
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Yep it's actual legislation.
 
Daily Mail said:
Boris Johnson's controversial enforcer warned a former cabinet minister he would be ‘purged’ if he stepped out of line on Brexit, Tory sources said last night.

In an extraordinary phone rant, Dominic Cummings issued a direct threat to Greg Clark during a heated exchange ahead of Tuesday night’s crunch vote allowing MPs to seize control of Commons business.

A senior Tory source said Mr Cummings told former business secretary Mr Clark: ‘When are you f***ing MPs going to realise we are leaving on October 31? We are going to purge you.’

A second former minister confirmed the account, adding: ‘This is the most reckless and vindictive handling of colleagues I have seen in my 20-odd years in parliament. It’s a disaster – Cummings is out of control.’

Details of Mr Clark’s phone call to Mr Cummings, confirmed by several sources, suggested it was made to discuss a possible compromise following a fractious meeting between rebels and Mr Johnson on Tuesday morning. The prime minister told Mr Clark to ‘call Dom’ to discuss the idea. But when he rang Mr Cummings, the PM’s senior adviser is said to have opened the conversation with a brusque ‘What do you want?’ before launching into a rant and then hanging up.
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MikeUpNorth said:
I’m wondering that myself. What would actually happen if he ignored the legislation and refused to send the letter requesting an extension?

I guess it would end up at the Supreme Court. Who knows what would happen there. They may rule that if parliament believes the PM not to be obeying the law, the correct solution is for parliament to remove him through a vote of no confidence.
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That is more than likely what they would say.

There have been two legal rulings now that have effectively thrown out the charges against Boris, one in Scotland, one in England, for proroguing Parliament, which tends to suggest the higher courts are extremely reluctant to rule against anything where the HM as head of state as already agreed to such actions since that could produce the biggest upset to our Constitution of all thats currently going on.

The Crown is the Supreme Authority, Judges, the Supreme Court etc and all, receive their authority from it, and the Crown in the guise of the reigning monarch (allegedly) gets it from God. Whoa there... sort that one out, could we be seeing the beginning of birth i.e. going into Labour (excuse the pun)) of the first Republic since Cromwell's Commonwealth?

Brexit is and has become, 'a battle royal'
 
esmufc07 said:
If he doesn't seek an extension he will be breaking the law. Not quite sure what would happen in that situation. He's mandated to ask for an extension on the 19th if there's no agreed deal, so I doubt he would be able to last 12 days if he refused to do so.
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And the EU say - why do want an extension? have you a new solution - no! Is parliament going to ratify the WA? - No! So why do you want an extension? Because I'm being sacked in the morning, sacked in the morning, oh sacked in the morning.
 
Paul the Wolf said:
And the EU say - why do want an extension? have you a new solution - no! Is parliament going to ratify the WA? - No! So why do you want an extension? Because I'm being sacked in the morning, sacked in the morning, oh sacked in the morning.
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The EU have already indicated they will grant an extension.
 
esmufc07 said:
If he doesn't seek an extension he will be breaking the law. Not quite sure what would happen in that situation. He's mandated to ask for an extension on the 19th if there's no agreed deal, so I doubt he would be able to last 12 days if he refused to do so.
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I think the obvious solution is to bring back the guillotine.
 
Paul the Wolf said:
No, I just don't see what granting an extension will do, other than prolonging the uncertainty.
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Uncertainty is better than a drastic drop off a cliff. For that matter, anything is better than a drastic drop off a cliff, even if it only gives a glimmer of hope. We bemoan people who say “I’m bored of this now, let’s just have no deal and get on with it”. I’m surprised someone who clearly has a vested interest is basically adopting that attitude. Unless, of course, you do want it to end badly
 
Revoking A50 would be another mockery of referendum and democracy. Brexit will have to happen, its a matter of which interpretation of it happens and how to so soften the blow. The opposition will have to run against Johnson on a platform based on some version of a deal May negotiated, whether they like it or not.
 
T00lsh3d said:
Uncertainty is better than a drastic drop off a cliff. For that matter, anything is better than a drastic drop off a cliff, even if it only gives a glimmer of hope. We bemoan people who say “I’m bored of this now, let’s just have no deal and get on with it”. I’m surprised someone who clearly has a vested interest is basically adopting that attitude. Unless, of course, you do want it to end badly
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But the uncertainty can't go on forever, at some point everyone has to move on. Uncertainty is still harming the UK, not as much as leaving will but even the uncertainty will make businesses take decisions they have possibly managed to postpone so far but can't do indefinitely.
I don't really have a vested interested now I've gained french citizenship and will never live in the UK again and nor do I want it to end badly but it won't go away.
 
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