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Do you think there will be a Deal or No Deal?

  • Total voters
    194
  • Poll closed .
sun_tzu said:
People took a 20% loan from the government to " help to buy a new build house"

This loan is interest free for the first 5 years

The idea being that in 5 years due to inflation etc they would be able to remortgage and get rid of the help to buy

That's because after 5 years the government would start charging interest but the way that interest is calculated is designed to get people to pay back as it increases each year and is basically (last year's rate add inflation plus one percent)

Now if the pound tanks it is likley inflation will be high... Let's say at least 3 percent

Year one it's 4% year two 8% year three 12% etc on loans of up to £125k

You can only remortgage to get out of this if there is sufficient equity in your house (and of course max loan to values often shrink in downturns and combined with a reduction in value could see a lot of people hit)

To complicate it you can only pay the help to buy lump sum either in full or 2 payments of 50% and most don't have that kind of lump sum available ... Hence they could be trapped with a hundred grand at credit card rates of interest in a few years

Add into this that as inflation goes high the traditional responce is to raise interest rates making their standard mortgage harder to renew as lenders will lend less against your salary and if you can't remortgage as you don't have the equity end up on standard variable rate (often much higher than the best deals available)

Basically people need the equity in the house or they could be a bit fecked...

That said I'm looking for a new house at the moment and have a shit ton of equity and cash so from a selfish point of view I hope it's a total car crash and there are repossession auctions like the last crash... That said I think the government is going to have to intervein or all their help to buy loans are at risk... Not sure how but I can't see the government wanting to risk mass evictions due to debt they own not being paid back by homeowners who can't remortgage

For context the UK government now has a 25 billion exposure to the UK housing market and I think help to buy is essentially a second charge so they stand to take the hit before banks would on any foreclosures

I understand something like 25% of new houses brought in the last 5 years have used help to buy and the interest payments are due to start this year for many if they can't remortgage
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I hope all that equity and cash can keep your cold bitter heart warm in the Winter. :lol:
 
Fluctuation0161 said:
I hope all that equity and cash can keep your cold bitter heart warm in the Winter. :lol:
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Well if it can't I'll up the rent for some of my Tennant's... Bit of an Xmas gift for them

An added bonus if the pound sinking though is I've made a fortune (in pounds) selling some of my property abroad...

Joke as I can about this stuff without doubt I don't intend to suffer personally because of brexit ... But it looks like there will be a financial hit and I think we can all figure out that those worst prepared for that are probably going to be hit hardest.
 
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Boris Johnson: UK will ‘easily cope’ with no-deal Brexit

So that is ok then
 
Maagge said:
That makes sense.
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It's true as well
Yet the demographics generally showed that the richer (and better educated and of course there is often a corolation between those two) the more likley you were to vote remain

I hope a lot of those who voted leave are still happy with their decision as I see them paying a disproportionate burden
 
Stanley Road said:
Is that 10 hours less 2 unpaid for lunch, 9 to 7.30 for example?
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When I was working in here it was typically 08.00-12.00 2 hours lunch then 14.00-17.30 - 5 days a week
which equals 37.5 hours per week - as the week was officially a 35 hour week - the additional 2.5 hours went towards their holidays.
 
Paul the Wolf said:
When I was working in here it was typically 08.00-12.00 2 hours lunch then 14.00-17.30 - 5 days a week
which equals 37.5 hours per week - as the week was officially a 35 hour week - the additional 2.5 hours went towards their holidays.
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I'd actually hate that. Give me a 30 minute lunch and finish at 4pm instead please.
 
Massive Spanner said:
I'd actually hate that. Give me a 30 minute lunch and finish at 4pm instead please.
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It's ok if you live locally and can spend time with your kids etc at lunchtime and with lunch the main meal of the day.
I was actually working about 14/15 hours a day at that time , traveling 2000kms a week and living out of hotels so I didn't get the benefit.
 
Paul the Wolf said:
It's ok if you live locally and can spend time with your kids etc at lunchtime and with lunch the main meal of the day.
I was actually working about 14/15 hours a day at that time , traveling 2000kms a week and living out of hotels so I didn't get the benefit.
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Being a male escort is a tough life, Paul.
 
It's like a perfect storm this. Trump drums up a tradewar with china to halt the world economy. Then Boris Johnson comes in and engineers a no deal brexit to trigger a cascade of global recessions. Meanwhile, the climate crisis is accelerating, but no one will have time for that in the aftermath.

Donald Trump and Boris Johnson are the leaders of the 21st century Anglosphere. And trump might just be the lesser evil. Let that sinks in.
 
Paul the Wolf said:
Why can't you get one now? USA regulations, lifespan of product amongst others but after Brexit an American company could make them because the EU protection of the name will be gone.
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I have no idea but it's a terrible situation. First thing I get when I land in Blighty is a decent pork pie.
 
sun_tzu said:
Well if it can't I'll up the rent for some of my Tennant's... Bit of an Xmas gift for them

An added bonus if the pound sinking though is I've made a fortune (in pounds) selling some of my property abroad...

Joke as I can about this stuff without doubt I don't intend to suffer personally because of brexit ... But it looks like there will be a financial hit and I think we can all figure out that those worst prepared for that are probably going to be hit hardest.
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Haha!

Although, on a more serious note though, it will be those who don't have the resources or opportunity to prepare for it who are hit the hardest.

Meanwhile the people with the means to benefit from it are the same ones pushing it through parliament.
 
sun_tzu said:
It's true as well
Yet the demographics generally showed that the richer (and better educated and of course there is often a corolation between those two) the more likley you were to vote remain

I hope a lot of those who voted leave are still happy with their decision as I see them paying a disproportionate burden
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I tend to agree with you, but I don't think @Jippy does.
 
Sassy Colin said:
I tend to agree with you, but I don't think @Jippy does.
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I don't think that's 100% correct. The vote obviously made for such strange bedfellows, eg the Nissan car workers and the landed gentry, for example, with the likes of goddamn Rees Mogg and Johnson somehow being lauded as 'men of the people' in certain quarters.
Another generalisation, but it makes sense that more remain voters were educated, reasonably well off and more international in their outlook.
 
I can't wait till i turn on the news and that fecking twat Tom Harwood isn't on my television.
 
Jippy said:
Another generalisation, but it makes sense that more remain voters were educated, reasonably well off and more international in their outlook.
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Remainers = 'the elite', the new 'Aristo's'... off with their heads, will that be the next cry from the masses (the great unwashed)...good job its not the French peasantry who are demanding to leave the EU! ;)
 
I see farrage was on TV talking about only standing candidates against conservatives who don't back no deal

I still think Johnson will call for an election vote before parliament comes back and make it the first thing on the agenda so a confidence vote can't be called

Gut feel... Election date 24th October as it gives the 7 week period and makes the election a straight up fight between leave on 31st or remain / extend / 2nd ref /unicorns being lumped together

Imagine that week trying to sort out a formal coalition though ... (My gut feel is a majority of about 75 for Johnson if labour don't join the remain alliance and brexit/conservative campaign together )
 
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Maticmaker said:
Remainers = 'the elite', the new 'Aristo's'... off with their heads, will that be the next cry from the masses (the great unwashed)...good job its not the French peasantry who are demanding to leave the EU! ;)
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Yeah the French would defo do it in style. It is ridiculous that the media has painted the remain camp as the elite, when leave was headed by Alexander Boris de Pfeffel Johnson of Eton and Oxford schooling.
 
MadMike said:
Wut? :wenger:
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“We care so much about remaining in the EU that we are willing to allow a no-deal Brexit to happen if Corbyn won’t promise to remain no matter what”

“Labour should make its GE manifesto promise to revoke article 50 even though 30% of its voters voted leave. This is smart electoral politics”
 
sun_tzu said:
I see farrage was on TV talking about only standing candidates against conservatives who don't back no deal

I still think Johnson will call for an election vote before parliament comes back and make it the first thing on the agenda so a confidence vote can't be called

Gut feel... Election date 24th October as it gives the 7 week period and makes the election a straight up fight between leave on 31st or remain / extend / 2nd ref /unicorns being lumped together

Imagine that week trying to sort out a formal coalition though ... (My gut feel is a majority of about 75 for Johnson if labour don't join the remain alliance and brexit/conservative campaign together )
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I think you're spot on. An election sometime in 2019 is 2/5 on at most bookies, but just looking at the sort of things Johnson is coming out with makes me think sooner rather than later.

No idea what Labour will do though, Corbyn will twist and turn to avoid standing on Remain but whether he does or he doesn't it's hard to see his policy being convincing. No overall majority is favourite at the bookies, but a Tory majority is looking good to me at 7/4.
 
Untied said:
“We care so much about remaining in the EU that we are willing to allow a no-deal Brexit to happen if Corbyn won’t promise to remain no matter what”

“Labour should make its GE manifesto promise to revoke article 50 even though 30% of its voters voted leave. This is smart electoral politics”
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The Isle of Wight need to be turned into a giant re education platform.
 
sun_tzu said:
I see farrage was on TV talking about only standing candidates against conservatives who don't back no deal

I still think Johnson will call for an election vote before parliament comes back and make it the first thing on the agenda so a confidence vote can't be called

Gut feel... Election date 24th October as it gives the 7 week period and makes the election a straight up fight between leave on 31st or remain / extend / 2nd ref /unicorns being lumped together

Imagine that week trying to sort out a formal coalition though ... (My gut feel is a majority of about 75 for Johnson if labour don't join the remain alliance and brexit/conservative campaign together )
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I honestly have no idea who to vote for in a General Election.

I guess May is still, at heart, for remain.
 
What can this little coalition actually do to stop no deal Brexit, short of vote of no confidence before late October?

They said they will prioritise legislation but what legislation can they put through other than revoke article 50?
 
Untied said:
“We care so much about remaining in the EU that we are willing to allow a no-deal Brexit to happen if Corbyn won’t promise to remain no matter what”

“Labour should make its GE manifesto promise to revoke article 50 even though 30% of its voters voted leave. This is smart electoral politics”
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The first mock quote makes no sense. Work on it. Secondly, it's a quote from Plaid Cymru who are not Liberals. Thirdly, Corbyn seems to also be against no-deal but apparently not enough to suspend his ambitions for premiership till the GE. The Guardian article is an opinion piece from a single column writer and, if you read it, you'd see it's criticising Lib Dems as well for their stance.

But yeah, damn Liberals. They ruined Britain.
 
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Untied said:
“Labour should make its GE manifesto promise to revoke article 50 even though 30% of its voters voted leave. This is smart electoral politics”
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37% actually. You are aware that 42% of Tories voted Remain though yes? And that the Tories are now quite blatantly pursuing a no-deal Brexit? Or does electoral math only matter when it comes to Labour?
 
horsechoker said:
What can this little coalition actually do to stop no deal Brexit, short of vote of no confidence before late October?

They said they will prioritise legislation but what legislation can they put through other than revoke article 50?
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If they can get control of the order paper and pass a motion they can compel the pm to ask for an extension to A50
That said they can't compel him to ask nicely or prevent him adding conditions he knows would be unacceptable
Nor of course can they make the EU accept any extension
 


As putrid as the Leave campaign was and is, the ultra-Remain base is equally stomach-churning.
 
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