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Do you think there will be a Deal or No Deal?


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Yes I know of them although they aren't in the same sector and haven't dealt with them directly, they had stands at timber fairs we exhibited at - believe their products are made from Scandinavian and Russian timber.

cool. What do you think about the future of timber construction for houses and commercial?
 
I work with all of the major supermarkets in the UK for some products you might pay more, but for some products you will pay less. Unless you shop at Aldi then you will more, they import from Germany as a middle man.

Import prices will rise as the pound falls. So let’s see how those prices compared to what they were before Brexit. I bet the weekly shop goes up, not down.
 
We could have stayed in the single market, which was a British innovation. Yes we would have had to continue strike trade deals collectively. So bleeding what. Who on earth voted to leave based on EU trade policy? If anything the Norway option would have been a compromise all side could probably have agreed on, it was certainly a favoured option amongst brexiters.

Errm we couldn't without agreeing the to the terms of there market. Eg movement of people (there is nothing wrong with the movement of people, its brilliant)

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/European_Single_Market

Have a look at the four freedoms, people also call them pillars.

You see you can't have one without the other according to the EU. Yet these rules bend... If you look at the first part Turkey has a unique agreement.
 
Clean that one up
Import prices will rise as the pound falls. So let’s see how those prices compared to what they were before Brexit. I bet the weekly shop goes up, not down.

You are looking at this without globalisation or to which the EU tariff works too.

You see we import lots from the EU, they import lots from abroad. The question is if I import a nut from Brazil which one is cheaper or more cost efficient. Using the WTO or the EU rules - as a temporary measure we are using zero on import.

But as we've discussed, this could be at a detriment to quality of products. But my argument is that our framework is the same as the EU. Will always be abiding by this.
 
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Errm we couldn't without agreeing the to the terms of there market. Eg movement of people (there is nothing wrong with the movement of people, its brilliant)

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/European_Single_Market

Have a look at the four freedoms, people also call them pillars.

You see you can't have one without the other according to the EU. Yet these rules bend... If you look at the first part Turkey has a unique agreement.

Corbyn thinks he can - but Turkey does not have the same relationship (please not again)

Got a lot of catching up to do just to stay still with all the agreements the UK has because of its membership of the EU and don't forget the new trade deals will be the responsibility of:

 
Corbyn thinks he can - but Turkey does not have the same relationship (please not again)

Got a lot of catching up to do just to stay still with all the agreements the UK has because of its membership of the EU and don't forget the new trade deals will be the responsibility of:



I see the face I'm not playing that video.

But run a scenario for fun:

Which is cheaper: timber from Brazil or timber from the EU outside the EU?
 
Errm we couldn't without agreeing the to the terms of there market. Eg movement of people (there is nothing wrong with the movement of people, its brilliant)

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/European_Single_Market

Have a look at the four freedoms, people also call them pillars.

You see you can't have one without the other according to the EU. Yet these rules bend... If you look at the first part Turkey has a unique agreement.

Turkey isn't part of the single market.
 
I see the face I'm not playing that video.

But run a scenario for fun:

Which is cheaper: timber from Brazil or timber from the EU outside the EU?

Brazil is a bit complicated at the moment. The EU have been negotiating a FTA with the South American countries (MERCOSUR) which was due to be ratified imminently but because of the current problems wth Bolsinaro and the Amazon it could be dropped. Of course if the UK leave the EU and there was a FTA then it would not apply to them. However as the timber is sold in US$ it could become rather more expensive than now simply because of the devaluation of Sterling when the UK leave.

Talking of timber I thought I'd havea look at the government's papers on timber and this made me chuckle a bit

"After March 2019 if there’s no deal

When the UK leaves the EU, EU law will no longer apply. We will implement our own UK timber regulation and UK FLEGT regulation, which will have the same requirements as the EUTR and EU FLEGT regulations."
 
Boris Johnson seeks legal advice on five-week parliament closure ahead of Brexit
Secret plan to block any delay in leaving EU is likely to anger European leaders at G7 summit
Boris Johnson has asked the attorney general, Geoffrey Cox, whether parliament can be shut down for five weeks from 9 September in what appears to be a concerted plan to stop MPs forcing a further extension to Brexit, according to leaked government correspondence.

An email from senior government advisers to an adviser in No 10 – written within the last 10 days and seen by the Observer – makes clear that the prime minister has recently requested guidance on the legality of such a move, known as prorogation. The initial legal guidance given in the email is that shutting parliament may well be possible, unless action being taken in the courts to block such a move by anti-Brexit campaigners succeeds in the meantime.

On Saturday Labour and pro-Remain Tory MPs reacted furiously, saying that the closure of parliament, as a method for stopping MPs preventing a potentially disastrous no-deal Brexit, would be an affront to democracy and deeply irresponsible, particularly given the government’s own acceptance of the economic turmoil no-deal could cause.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/aug/24/johnson-seeks-legal-advice-parliament-closure
 
So, apparently, a trade deal with the US is done and ready to be signed. :lol:
Sounds like how Trump has 'solved' the North Korea problem. With what Johnson has said about the US-China trade spat, what are the odds Trump throws his dummy out and declares on Twitter that Boris is a fool and the UK will never have a trade deal?
 
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People took a 20% loan from the government to " help to buy a new build house"

This loan is interest free for the first 5 years

The idea being that in 5 years due to inflation etc they would be able to remortgage and get rid of the help to buy

That's because after 5 years the government would start charging interest but the way that interest is calculated is designed to get people to pay back as it increases each year and is basically (last year's rate add inflation plus one percent)

Now if the pound tanks it is likley inflation will be high... Let's say at least 3 percent

Year one it's 4% year two 8% year three 12% etc on loans of up to £125k

You can only remortgage to get out of this if there is sufficient equity in your house (and of course max loan to values often shrink in downturns and combined with a reduction in value could see a lot of people hit)

To complicate it you can only pay the help to buy lump sum either in full or 2 payments of 50% and most don't have that kind of lump sum available ... Hence they could be trapped with a hundred grand at credit card rates of interest in a few years

Add into this that as inflation goes high the traditional responce is to raise interest rates making their standard mortgage harder to renew as lenders will lend less against your salary and if you can't remortgage as you don't have the equity end up on standard variable rate (often much higher than the best deals available)

Basically people need the equity in the house or they could be a bit fecked...

That said I'm looking for a new house at the moment and have a shit ton of equity and cash so from a selfish point of view I hope it's a total car crash and there are repossession auctions like the last crash... That said I think the government is going to have to intervein or all their help to buy loans are at risk... Not sure how but I can't see the government wanting to risk mass evictions due to debt they own not being paid back by homeowners who can't remortgage

For context the UK government now has a 25 billion exposure to the UK housing market and I think help to buy is essentially a second charge so they stand to take the hit before banks would on any foreclosures

I understand something like 25% of new houses brought in the last 5 years have used help to buy and the interest payments are due to start this year for many if they can't remortgage

That’s not how it works.

FQvBDCD.jpg
 
So, apparently, a trade deal with the US is done and ready to be signed. :lol:
Sounds like how Trump has 'solved' the North Korea problem. With what Johnson has said about the US-China trade spat, what are the odds Trump throws his dummy out and declares on Twitter that Boris is a fool and the UK will never have a trade deal?
Hmm, always wary when the Express is the source.
 
So, apparently, a trade deal with the US is done and ready to be signed. :lol:
Sounds like how Trump has 'solved' the North Korea problem. With what Johnson has said about the US-China trade spat, what are the odds Trump throws his dummy out and declares on Twitter that Boris is a fool and the UK will never have a trade deal?
Just a likely leak (lie) to try and add pressure on the EU. Trump administration policy is the USA first so I'm not sure the UK will get any favours. We'll likely end up with a worse deal than staying with the EU.

Business is business whether USA is dealing with the UK, China, Brazil, or Canada.
 
Yeah, I imagine it is bs. But I did wonder the chance Trump falls out with Boris this weekend.
I don't think he will fall out.

He wants to break up the EU and Boris and Farage are his golden spoon.
 
Errm we couldn't without agreeing the to the terms of there market. Eg movement of people (there is nothing wrong with the movement of people, its brilliant)

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/European_Single_Market

Have a look at the four freedoms, people also call them pillars.

You see you can't have one without the other according to the EU. Yet these rules bend... If you look at the first part Turkey has a unique agreement.

I know about the 4 freedoms. My point is May decided her red lines without recourse to anyone else. There was no debate about the form of Brexit we could have had post leaving, when she was drawing up the UK position. Which has ended up with people like you talking about no deal and WTO rules and a minority view within the Tory party setting the agenda. There were alternatives to this mess. Anyway, it’s all moot now, we’ll have to wait for the Brexit inquiry in 5 years after this has all gone tits up.
 
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As if either Trump or Johnson can get a deal through congress/parliament
just some nonsense for the Sunday papers, to keep them occupied and to make it look like Johnson is doing something. Same things as for the “seeking legal advice on suspending parliament.” Doesn’t have to be true, just has to be crap the brexiters like and will annoy remainers. Forum fodder to wind up people like us.
 
Is Scandi timber top quality? I assume so and that anything out of China is the crap stuff.

Yes and the company is big reliable,well known and deal with legal timber.
China is pot luck, they can produce top quality material but trusting their certification/sourcing etc is a lottery and I've heard of many horror stories.
 
As your a international business man you will know the German and French have more holidays then most - in fact dealing with them is frankly frustrating that 3 weeks off in August is a killer, just like the Chinese New year. I have no idea what there output is at these times.. when the French go for lunch it's actually three courses while I respect this - sometimes you're sat there thinking let's just sort this problem.

Bit above is just a pet hate... I love France and Germany. I'm a big fan of Luxembourg multilingual...man its cool.

Those long French lunches (we have 2 hours a day for lunch) and the many holidays result in an extremely high productivity level. Staff are much more relaxed and focused on their work and aren’t rushing around every day, trying to grab food and rush to eat it, while stressing all the time.

Admittedly August is fecking annoying. I still don’t understand why they basically close the country that month..
 
Yes and the company is big reliable,well known and deal with legal timber.
China is pot luck, they can produce top material but trusting their certification/sourcing etc is a lottery and I've heard of many horror stories.
There must be loads of added cost then, more insurance to cover for bad lots, over buying to make sure production doesn't stop etc. So it might be cheaper to buy in China, but how much does it cost overall?
Those long French lunches (we have 2 hours a day for lunch) and the many holidays result in an extremely high productivity level. Staff are much more relaxed and focused on their work and aren’t rushing around every day, trying to grab food and rush to eat it, while stressing all the time.

Admittedly August is fecking annoying. I still don’t understand why they basically close the country that month..
Lots of HR studies have shown that taking a proper break in the middle of your work day is important, eating lunch at your desk is really bad for you. Add to that that in a lot of European countries lunch is the main meal of the day, so even before office work there's always been long breaks around lunch. Also, in some countries lunchtime is very hot, so workers productivity would be shit.

The August thing is probably left over from harvest time same as school holidays are.
 
There must be loads of added cost then, more insurance to cover for bad lots, over buying to make sure production doesn't stop etc. So it might be cheaper to buy in China, but how much does it cost overall?

Lots of HR studies have shown that taking a proper break in the middle of your work day is important, eating lunch at your desk is really bad for you. Add to that that in a lot of European countries lunch is the main meal of the day, so even before office work there's always been long breaks around lunch. Also, in some countries lunchtime is very hot, so workers productivity would be shit.

The August thing is probably left over from harvest time same as school holidays are.

Yeah the August thing is just mental though. Shops just close for several weeks. No thought of bringing in cover staff or anything, they just close and go on holiday. Public transport (in my city at least) switch to a totally different timetable. Considering there are still people trying to work and live during August, it’s hugely disruptive and annoying.
 
Yeah the August thing is just mental though. Shops just close for several weeks. No thought of bringing in cover staff or anything, they just close and go on holiday. Public transport (in my city at least) switch to a totally different timetable. Considering there are still people trying to work and live during August, it’s hugely disruptive and annoying.
Oh I know, I used to sell into Europe a lot, August is pointless to try and call anyone. We all just used to go on holiday then as well
 
There must be loads of added cost then, more insurance to cover for bad lots, over buying to make sure production doesn't stop etc. So it might be cheaper to buy in China, but how much does it cost overall?

I could probably write a book about Chinese timber production and practices but they can keep their costs very low.
Couple of examples -
Illegally ship logs out of African countries aboard vessels that have brought in other produce but lay anchor out to sea when unloaded and supplied by barges in the middle of the night, freight costs are minimal because of their power with the shipping lines
Produce the products in China by paying workers even less than the African workers and ship the products to the west at freight costs of around 20% of what we pay in the west.

They also used to ship logs out of the USA (and probably still do) to China, produce the goods in China and ship back the finished product to the USA at a lower cost than producing them in the USA which led to a lot of timber producers going bust in the USA.

Strangely all the producers in China are FSC and PEFC certified whereas it is a difficult and expensive process.

There are also some companies who have all the latest technological machines which many in the west dream of.

Also on the surface the companies are operated by private individuals but many are actually state subsidised.
They don't operate on a level playing field.
 
I could probably write a book about Chinese timber production and practices but they can keep their costs very low.
Couple of examples -
Illegally ship logs out of African countries aboard vessels that have brought in other produce but lay anchor out to sea when unloaded and supplied by barges in the middle of the night, freight costs are minimal because of their power with the shipping lines
Produce the products in China by paying workers even less than the African workers and ship the products to the west at freight costs of around 20% of what we pay in the west.

They also used to ship logs out of the USA (and probably still do) to China, produce the goods in China and ship back the finished product to the USA at a lower cost than producing them in the USA which led to a lot of timber producers going bust in the USA.

Strangely all the producers in China are FSC and PEFC certified whereas it is a difficult and expensive process.

There are also some companies who have all the latest technological machines which many in the west dream of.

Also on the surface the companies are operated by private individuals but many are actually state subsidised.
They don't operate on a level playing field.
I would imagine lots of countries have done or are still doing the same thing, but as you say, having that much influence over shipping lines definitely helps.

I guess, with the population China has, all this is just a rebalancing after China got back into world trade in the 80's. With all the reforms, it's taken a while, but with all the resources they have, they should be a super super trade power
 
Those long French lunches (we have 2 hours a day for lunch) and the many holidays result in an extremely high productivity level. Staff are much more relaxed and focused on their work and aren’t rushing around every day, trying to grab food and rush to eat it, while stressing all the time.

Admittedly August is fecking annoying. I still don’t understand why they basically close the country that month..

The American work 'ethic' is horrific. It's the main reason why people are so angry, selfish and stressed out over here (IMO).
 
Those long French lunches (we have 2 hours a day for lunch) and the many holidays result in an extremely high productivity level. Staff are much more relaxed and focused on their work and aren’t rushing around every day, trying to grab food and rush to eat it, while stressing all the time.

Admittedly August is fecking annoying. I still don’t understand why they basically close the country that month..
2 hours for lunch! I could not bear that, 30 mins is already enough
 
People took a 20% loan from the government to " help to buy a new build house"

This loan is interest free for the first 5 years

The idea being that in 5 years due to inflation etc they would be able to remortgage and get rid of the help to buy

That's because after 5 years the government would start charging interest but the way that interest is calculated is designed to get people to pay back as it increases each year and is basically (last year's rate add inflation plus one percent)

Now if the pound tanks it is likley inflation will be high... Let's say at least 3 percent

Year one it's 4% year two 8% year three 12% etc on loans of up to £125k

You can only remortgage to get out of this if there is sufficient equity in your house (and of course max loan to values often shrink in downturns and combined with a reduction in value could see a lot of people hit)

To complicate it you can only pay the help to buy lump sum either in full or 2 payments of 50% and most don't have that kind of lump sum available ... Hence they could be trapped with a hundred grand at credit card rates of interest in a few years

Add into this that as inflation goes high the traditional responce is to raise interest rates making their standard mortgage harder to renew as lenders will lend less against your salary and if you can't remortgage as you don't have the equity end up on standard variable rate (often much higher than the best deals available)

Basically people need the equity in the house or they could be a bit fecked...

That said I'm looking for a new house at the moment and have a shit ton of equity and cash so from a selfish point of view I hope it's a total car crash and there are repossession auctions like the last crash... That said I think the government is going to have to intervein or all their help to buy loans are at risk... Not sure how but I can't see the government wanting to risk mass evictions due to debt they own not being paid back by homeowners who can't remortgage

For context the UK government now has a 25 billion exposure to the UK housing market and I think help to buy is essentially a second charge so they stand to take the hit before banks would on any foreclosures

I understand something like 25% of new houses brought in the last 5 years have used help to buy and the interest payments are due to start this year for many if they can't remortgage

I'm not saying you are necessarily wrong, but the way you describe it can't be right.
 
People took a 20% loan from the government to " help to buy a new build house"

This loan is interest free for the first 5 years

The idea being that in 5 years due to inflation etc they would be able to remortgage and get rid of the help to buy

That's because after 5 years the government would start charging interest but the way that interest is calculated is designed to get people to pay back as it increases each year and is basically (last year's rate add inflation plus one percent)

Now if the pound tanks it is likley inflation will be high... Let's say at least 3 percent

Year one it's 4% year two 8% year three 12% etc on loans of up to £125k

You can only remortgage to get out of this if there is sufficient equity in your house (and of course max loan to values often shrink in downturns and combined with a reduction in value could see a lot of people hit)

To complicate it you can only pay the help to buy lump sum either in full or 2 payments of 50% and most don't have that kind of lump sum available ... Hence they could be trapped with a hundred grand at credit card rates of interest in a few years

Add into this that as inflation goes high the traditional responce is to raise interest rates making their standard mortgage harder to renew as lenders will lend less against your salary and if you can't remortgage as you don't have the equity end up on standard variable rate (often much higher than the best deals available)

Basically people need the equity in the house or they could be a bit fecked...

That said I'm looking for a new house at the moment and have a shit ton of equity and cash so from a selfish point of view I hope it's a total car crash and there are repossession auctions like the last crash... That said I think the government is going to have to intervein or all their help to buy loans are at risk... Not sure how but I can't see the government wanting to risk mass evictions due to debt they own not being paid back by homeowners who can't remortgage

For context the UK government now has a 25 billion exposure to the UK housing market and I think help to buy is essentially a second charge so they stand to take the hit before banks would on any foreclosures

I understand something like 25% of new houses brought in the last 5 years have used help to buy and the interest payments are due to start this year for many if they can't remortgage

You sound nice.
 
That’s not how it works.

FQvBDCD.jpg

Just to elaborate on this @sun_tzu as I didn’t have time in the morning. For anyone else interested as well.

I had a HTB loan. The interest you pay starts at 1.75% and then increases by RPI +1%. So what that means is if RPI was 5% then your initial interest of 1.75% increases by 5+1% - but its not added as interest to the initial loan amount as you were calculating but to the actual interest rate. So the interest rate for year 7 would be 1.75 + 6% = 1.86% if we round up.

So the above example is interest payments for a £40k HTB loan with a steady worst case RPI of 5%, it’s never been that high since the 80s and even then the average was about 6.5%. Going back even further RPI was about 13.2% average in the 70s and even if that hyperinflation was sustained for the lifetime of the loan the maximum interest paid on the final year would be 4.6% which is still extremely low.

If we were to consider RPI for the last 20 years as a more current example (1994-2018) it has been an average of 2.8 increase year on year. Therefore the maximum yearly interest ever paid on the 25 year lifetime of the HTB loan would be 2.51% on the final year translated to £1000 for that year or about £83 a month. I say 25 years as it must be paid of by year 25.

So to conclude HTB loans are only a risk to the tax payer if the market goes tits up as the government equity would decrease however as the scheme opened in 2013 a lot of people who took them out, like myself, have remortgaged on the back of a sustained period of growth and have paid them back before the interest kicked in so the government has already made a healthy profit from people that have paid back. Roughly about 30% ROI on my loan as an example after 4.5 years.
 
So how long is your working day? And wtf do you do for 2 hours?

8 hour day. For 2 hours you disconnect from work, have a nice lunch, do whatever you please. Some people go for a run. Some just chat with friends etc.

For a lot of people, they don’t have a huge amount of time outside work. They have kids and commitments and life just becomes one huge rush. By ensuring work isn’t some crazy rush too, they’re much calmer and more productive.
 
So how long is your working day? And wtf do you do for 2 hours?

Eat, chat, watch TV, listen to music, read, eat with your kids at home, have a walk/run. It depends a lot on where you work/live, lots of people also don't take or have 2 hours but 30 minutes.
 
8 hour day. For 2 hours you disconnect from work, have a nice lunch, do whatever you please. Some people go for a run. Some just chat with friends etc.

For a lot of people, they don’t have a huge amount of time outside work. They have kids and commitments and life just becomes one huge rush. By ensuring work isn’t some crazy rush too, they’re much calmer and more productive.
Is that 10 hours less 2 unpaid for lunch, 9 to 7.30 for example?