It seems likely Labour and the SNP will be able to come to a working arrangement in parliament. Caroline Lucas and Sturgeon have both publicly come out and asked Swinson to rethink her rejection of Corbyn's proposal. The pressure right now is entirely on the Lib Dems. The idea that they get to dictate terms to the other parties is ludicrous and shows that the Lib Dems are more committed to stopping Corbyn from ever entering Downing Street than they are removing the Tories and preventing a No Deal Brexit.
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It seems likely Labour and the SNP will be able to come to a working arrangement in parliament. Caroline Lucas and Sturgeon have both publicly come out and asked Swinson to rethink her rejection of Corbyn's proposal. The pressure right now is entirely on the Lib Dems. The idea that they get to dictate terms to the other parties is ludicrous and shows that the Lib Dems are more committed to stopping Corbyn from ever entering Downing Street than they are removing the Tories and preventing a No Deal Brexit.
Think through the process step by step. The government is toppled and a 2nd ref is announced and held. The country is bitterly divided and full of recriminations, BUT a 2nd referendum is ultimately a democratic exercise. Both sides would campaign like crazy, but the result would be delivered direct from the British public not from politicians or pundits, but from the voters themselves.
At that point whoever loses is basically crushed. If Leave win then the entire Remain argument about the public having been lied to in ‘16 and about giving people another chance to speak is all gone. If Remain win then the Leavers main argument about ‘the will of the people’ is totally dead. They can continue to whine about reruns and so on, but it’s a very hard argument to try and make in the face of the public voting that they changed their mind. Whichever way it goes, it sucks the oxygen out of the fight.
Obviously whichever way it went, there would still be a hardcore on either side who didn’t except it. Who would whine and argue and want to keep fighting on. But to the public at large it would be the end of a major chapter. I don’t believe there’s a big appetite in the country to extend this period of division endlessly, and for most people it would be a great opportunity to call an end to it all and move on.
Jo Swinson can go feck herself.
...and how quickly do you think a temporary government could implement a second referendum? The best case scenario that has been presented as legally plausible, and this would necessitate the passing of various contentious legislation in parliament, is 22 weeks. Could you see an ad-hoc alliance of Labour/SNP/Lib Dems/Green/Tory rebels lasting that long and being able to achieve all this? The reality is that a general election is almost certainly going to have to precede a second referendum because the parliamentary arithmetic is far too precarious for any sort of "Remain" alliance.
Even ignoring this, it does amaze me how many people still view a second referendum as some sort of magic wand solution to stopping the whole process.
I'm still trying to figure out the Lib Dems strategy of pissing everyone off by appointing a leader who wants to snuggle up with a no deal brexit collaboration with the Tories. It's such a huge judgement error. Bizarre.
The reasoning for an election before a referendum is should a party that is against 'no deal' win, they have the mandate to take that option off the table in a second referendum.
So for example, should Labour win an election... they can renegotiate with the EU but at the end of the process we would effectively be left with a referendum with just two options. Labour's deal or Remain. You'd imagine the public would almost certainly back remain vs Brexit-lite but a lot of people aren't seeing the bigger picture.
Agreed. There always was and always will be only 3 possible outcomes - revoke A50, accept the WA or go with no deal. But the Uk don't want any of those 3 choices. If the EU allow another extension it's not going to solve anything. They should say "make your mind up now".
No, Theresa May is which sucks for that justification though I agree with the rest.
Chukka Umunna telling Corbyn to put his Ego aside. Oh dear.
Ignoring your ridiculous analysis for a moment. Unless you're an easily influenced fool who doesn't trust themselves not to be dissuaded then why does it matter what Corbyn thinks?
If remainers are in the majority and vote for Labour they'll get a second referendum and thus be able to vote remain in said referendum. My above points stand.
If Labour get rid of trotsky then i think lib dem would back them
It falls down because of the Lib Dems, we've already got SNP, PC, Greens and even some Tories saying they'll back Corbyn on this because rightly it doesn't really matter that he's caretaker.
Labour have 247 MPs and then the other backers. Swinson has 14 in her party and it doesn't sound like she has them all aligned. Trying to argue that Labour is the blocker here is as bad as Boris blaming the EU.
That is not happening.
Nobody is likely to get a majority given the Brexit divide. A remain alliance could take no deal off the table though in a second referendum should they command enough seats... which is probably the best they could hope for.
Where have I argued Labour is the blocker? I have argued Corbyn is the blocker, yes the Liberals too, and no doubt some of the Tories that would be needed, but that doesn't alter Corbyn's position, he is part of the problem, and a part he could easily solve.
I imagine a new referendum would be more explicit in its options. There are technically 3 options: Revoke, Sign the WAB, No Deal. Whether all three options would be on the ballot I don't know, but this time it won't be such an open question as last time one hopes.
As to what happens if Tories win the GE, that's partly why Lib Dems don't want to back Corbyn's plan which is to have a GE before a referendum. Because if the Remain vote gets split and Tories win it, we're back to square one.
I must have missed the bit where Labour dropped it's plan to renegotiate a wonderful new unicorn Brexit deal with the EU, or maybe they'll be campaigning for Remain instead, who knows. You think there's three options, I think there's three options, it's just no one has told Labour yet.
Yeah I get that but a renegotiation isn't happening.
You haven't missed it they still believe in that unicorn. But whether they secure any (minor) modifications or not in the WAB, it's still mostly the same deal that will be put to parliament or the people.
Point is, Labour's priority is a GE hoping to become government. Whereas other parties seem to want a 2nd ref first. Probably with a WAB vs Remain options only, which would eliminate the threat of no-deal Brexit more than a GE that could put Boris back in power.
Yes but whatever is on the ballot paper doesn't change what the three options are or whether Tories Labour or LibDems are in power. At some point someone's got to decide what to do. On the face of it Johnson wants a no deal, no-one wants or rather dares to revoke A50. The Withdrawal agreement is not going to change. Labour Corbyn supporters think Corbyn wants to remain even though its patently obvious he doesn't and he has no hope in hell of renegotiating the WA, at least not in the way he thinks.
If there's a GE before a referendum Labour's vote will probably be diluted between them, the Brexit Party and the LibDems.
Which is why the plan to go to a GE first is not as clever as it seems. All polls and by-elections indicate Labour tanking the next GE. It's to their advantage to have a referendum first before a new GE.
Thats one way to put it.
Put what where?
who is mercader and who are stalin/beria behind him?
JC reminds me of a politician we had ie Alfred Sant. He was a good man and way more of a learned man then Jeremy is however he had something in him that the majority of people absolutely hated in him. He did win the GE only for him to piss of the godfather/Jesus of his party which forced him to a GE. Labour kept losing one election to another up until they got rid off him. Since then Labour became the political version of Pep's Barca. They keep winning and winning on record votes
Maybe she likes it up the wrong'un?
Edit- Never mind.
If by ‘my ridiculous analysis’ you actually mean ‘things Corbyn himself has said’ then yes sure, let’s just ignore that.
As for why it matters, why the feck do you think it matters if Labour are pushing a leave agenda in the 2nd ref? It’s already going to be tight, but now we have to contend with Jezza filtering even more votes towards the leave side that would stay remain if Labour were backing remain. It’s not fecking rocket science.
"We need Corbyn to lead."
"No, not like that."
"No, not like that."
the puritanical remain schtick would be more believable if they weren't promoting ken and yvette who have repeatedly voted for and promoted the same or similar soft exists as corbyn
Fecking politicians.
Just sort it out, i ought to crack your heads together.
As i understand it, we cant have multiple confidence votes. If Corbyn doesn't have the support we can try a different approach.
Just sort it out, i ought to crack your heads together.
As i understand it, we cant have multiple confidence votes. If Corbyn doesn't have the support we can try a different approach.
Gerronwivit
It's true, but I'm not sure why you don't let him fail first.
I wasn’t talking about what will or won’t happen... just the hypothetical reasons for wanting an election before a second referendum.
‘Cos he might not. Presumably.
Agree(I'm still amazed that people really brought into the end of history stuff considering within the next two decades liberal capitalism would shit it pants on the world stage).
The only positive is the this type of politics - Ultra Remain/Hard Brexit stance can't last forever. It will go away although what happens to those that believe in it, is anyone guess.