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Do you think there will be a Deal or No Deal?

  • Total voters
    194
  • Poll closed .
RedChip said:
It's the perception, I think, more than the reality that matters more. I don't like Corbyn and I quite agree with Swinson that he probably won't gather enough support anyhow. But we cannot get over the fact he is still leader of the official opposition and should be next in line to form a government should the current one lose a vonc. And, currently, an alliance of opposition parties and Tory rebels looks like the most viable path to stopping a no deal Brexit. For a minority remainer party, it is inconsistent to both refuse to sit down with Corbyn and vehemently oppose no deal.

Besides, it is a vicious circle: if Lib Dems are seen to be working closely with Corbyn, his chances of gaining other MPs' support increase. So Swinson saying that he won't get the required numbers without even trying to talk to him smells very much like party politics as usual.
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I don't think there is a commons majority for any particular type of brexit (hard, soft, none) but a majority against all three... Nor do I think there is a majority for a second referendum (before a ge) I suspect it's close if labour wouldn't whip against that.
A ge seems to be the only solution... Be that 2/3 vote for it (my gut feel is conservatives go this route) or after a no confidence motion and 14 days of messing about
I don't think any mp could command a majority at the moment and certainly not Corbyn as with A ge inevitable no other party will want to associate with a brand so toxic to voters

The horse trading to form a coalition after a ge that produced a hung parliament would be something to behold though
 
Foxbatt said:
Isn't Corbyn saying that it is a temporary unity government with all the parties or people who doesn't want a no deal Brexit involved in the government? Anyway if Corbyn tries anything they do not like they can always bring down the government. It is also term limited and to extend the article 50 and then have a GE. What is wrong with that for the remainers? They get a chance at a second referendum, they get a GE to get rid of Corbyn and they get all they have been shouting about.
No they would rather have Brexit with no deal than Corbyn as PM even for a day. They are hypocrites.
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Nothing, there's plenty on here very opposed to Corbyn and this issue has clearly demonstrated those who just wish to moan regardless and those who take a fair view of each issue.

This whole argument of a Labour deal is a nonsense. Even if the EU entertain a renegotiation it's still only Labour providing a promised alternative to the public, that doesn't mean they back it over remain themselves. I'm not sure why that's hard to grasp for some.
 
sun_tzu said:
No matter what deal he gets he will then have a referendum and I can't see any circumstances they would campaign against a deal they had negotiated... They are a fundamentally vote against the conservative party but they have leave leadership trying to con a remain membership

Ooooh Jeremy Corbyn indeed.

If Boris success in achieving a hard brexit I do wonder what labours next move will be

Libs will clearly be rejoin ... Might even rebrand as European democrats

Greens will be rejoin... SNP will be Scotland leaves UK and rejoins EU

Ireland will remain polarised around independence

Conservative will clearly not want to rejoin... What about labour?... More unicorns or split I think?...
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The leave vs remain vote is split down the middle regardless of party line (Labour or Conservative).

To describe Labour as leave leadership vs remain membership is overly simplistic (and incorrect) at best, its disingenuous and misleading of you at worst.
 
Smores said:
Nothing, there's plenty on here very opposed to Corbyn and this issue has clearly demonstrated those who just wish to moan regardless and those who take a fair view of each issue.

This whole argument of a Labour deal is a nonsense. Even if the EU entertain a renegotiation it's still only Labour providing a promised alternative to the public, that doesn't mean they back it over remain themselves. I'm not sure why that's hard to grasp for some.
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What seems hard to grasp by the Labour Corbyn supporters is that there is no alternative negotiation - there will be no change to citizens rights, there will be no change to the settlement and there will be no change to the backstop other than limiting it to NI instead of the whole of the UK. And no you cannot have the same benefits outside the EU as in it - ergo Corbyn and Labour are not offering a promised alternative to the public- it's garbage. If Tories or the LibDems had said it would have been laughed at by Labour but because it's Corbyn and Labour who have said it it's regarded as sensible. Jesus wept.
 
All the parties are in a complete fecking mess. I don't see how there's much possibility of piecing together any sort of unity government.
 
Paul the Wolf said:
What seems hard to grasp by the Labour Corbyn supporters is that there is no alternative negotiation - there will be no change to citizens rights, there will be no change to the settlement and there will be no change to the backstop other than limiting it to NI instead of the whole of the UK. And no you cannot have the same benefits outside the EU as in it - ergo Corbyn and Labour are not offering a promised alternative to the public- it's garbage. If Tories or the LibDems had said it would have been laughed at by Labour but because it's Corbyn and Labour who have said it it's regarded as sensible. Jesus wept.
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He's offering a ge where your mates can vote lib dems in and cancel brexit, but you dont really want that right?
 
Smores said:
Nothing, there's plenty on here very opposed to Corbyn and this issue has clearly demonstrated those who just wish to moan regardless and those who take a fair view of each issue.

This whole argument of a Labour deal is a nonsense. Even if the EU entertain a renegotiation it's still only Labour providing a promised alternative to the public, that doesn't mean they back it over remain themselves. I'm not sure why that's hard to grasp for some.
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You're seriously saying Labour want to sit down with the EU to negotiate a new withdrawal agreement and then campaign against it? I suspect the EU might find it a bit difficult to grasp that one as well.
 
Paul the Wolf said:
What seems hard to grasp by the Labour Corbyn supporters is that there is no alternative negotiation - there will be no change to citizens rights, there will be no change to the settlement and there will be no change to the backstop other than limiting it to NI instead of the whole of the UK. And no you cannot have the same benefits outside the EU as in it - ergo Corbyn and Labour are not offering a promised alternative to the public- it's garbage. If Tories or the LibDems had said it would have been laughed at by Labour but because it's Corbyn and Labour who have said it it's regarded as sensible. Jesus wept.
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I said none of that and nor did anyone specify the WA is the target of the renegotiation. Nice rant though.
 
711 said:
You're seriously saying Labour want to sit down with the EU to negotiate a new withdrawal agreement and then campaign against it? I suspect the EU might find it a bit difficult to grasp that one as well.
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Yeah imagine doing a referendum with some thrashed out options. Madness

I suppose you think it was a great idea to go into the original referendum completely blind to the actual options.
 
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Stanley Road said:
He's offering a ge where your mates can vote lib dems in and cancel brexit, but you dont really want that right?
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None of them are my mates, all of the parties are unelectable. This concept of a GE solving the problem is equally daft - whoever gets in, and we all know LibDems will never get in, the UK will be back to square one at the end of it, it doesn't solve anything.

Personally imo leaving the EU is insane but the sooner it happens the better otherwise it will never go away. The Uk will just have to live with the consequences and then both the Tories and Labour will be history. Start over again the political system.
 
Smores said:
Yeah imagine doing a referendum with some thrashed out options. Madness

I suppose you think it was a great idea to go into the original referendum completely blind to the actual options.
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What do think the chances are of the EU granting an extension for this renegotiate but don't necessarily mean it policy?
 
Smores said:
I said none of that and nor did anyone specify the WA is the target of the renegotiation. Nice rant though.
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I never rant. So you mean the renegotiation of the political declaration which is meaningless, anything can be negotiated after the WA is signed but to get a deal the WA has to be signed and Labour have voted against it every time.
What's Corbyn's latest position on Freedom of movement or doing individual trade deals whilst in a customs union?

Trying to please Leave and Remain will only end in failure. Be one or the other, you can't be both. Any type of Leave will be a disaster and certainly put a kybosh on his policies.
 
Paul the Wolf said:
None of them are my mates, all of the parties are unelectable. This concept of a GE solving the problem is equally daft - whoever gets in, and we all know LibDems will never get in, the UK will be back to square one at the end of it, it doesn't solve anything.

Personally imo leaving the EU is insane but the sooner it happens the better otherwise it will never go away. The Uk will just have to live with the consequences and then both the Tories and Labour will be history. Start over again the political system.
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No it's not. My gut feeling is that a GE is the only way to solve the problem. As I see it the trouble with the call to stop a 'no deal brexit' is for many as much of a lie as it was for the the leavers to put that 350m per week on the side of a bus. Truth is that most who are railing against a no deal brexit if they are honest want no form of brexit at all in much the same way as some want a no deal brexit. The only way out of the impasse is for either for the Conservative party with the aid of the Brexit party to get a really decent working majority or for those two parties to be hammered at the next election. There simply is not a middle ground. Teresa thought she would pull it off when she called the 2017 election but of course folks were already peed off with austerity.

However should the opinion polls be correct in calling a tight race a GE might solve nowt and we end up with another minority government. With either the Conservatives again propped up by the DUP or Labour propped up by the SNP. Mind you if the latter were to be the outcome I'd expect the SNP price to be agreement to another Scottish Independence Referendum.

As one or two others have previously said I do not believe we are truly ever going to see the end of this. It really has split the country in half. Even if there were to be a turnaround and we decided to stay in the EU I would expect at least 40 percent of the population to be as much up in arms as those in advocating remain are the upshot being that the UK would continue in perpetuity to be a reluctant partner in the European Project.

I have almost come around to the view that we should leave and suffer the consequences. Although that's tough to say I reckon that its only by feeling the pain that we might one day realise that being in the EU is better than being out and embrace rejoining. Then again what the heck do I know. Not much really except that all politicians are playing party politics. Not one of them give a damn for the country and the only time I live in a democracy is for the 5 minutes when they seek my vote on GE day. Once elected the tossers do just as they please.
 
711 said:
What do think the chances are of the EU granting an extension for this renegotiate but don't necessarily mean it policy?
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It would of course become policy if that's what the public voted, it's not a futile proposal.

However I'd say the chances of them actually engaging are very very slim. The only reason they'd do so is to push us towards a Brexit in name only deal but i doubt they believe that would pass anyway.
 
Stanley Road said:
To be honest i dont think he wants any alternative to any issue. Nothing bar revoking works for Paul.
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I don't know about that, he's been in support of the WAB being signed too. What I don't understand is why you guys think Remainers would want a GE now. It's not really solving the issue of no-deal Brexit. There's a reason they prefer the issue to go to a referendum.



EDIT: What the tweet indicates is the very high risk of the Remain vote being split and Conservatives, despite suffering heavy losses in term of votes, managing to form a majority government.
 
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MadMike said:
I don't know about that, he's been in support of the WAB being signed too. What I don't understand is why you guys think Remainers would want a GE now. It's not really solving the issue of no-deal Brexit.

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You realise that's a council by-election where the Tories lost 18% of the vote, right?
 
I see another GE being a minority government where nothing happens.

Said it before that we could've been 2-3 years into trade deals had we moved to a temporary Norway type deal after the vote or even a full year after. That's assuming honouring the vote is paramount.

EU will look after themselves and aren't going to tempt others into leaving. You leave and face the consequences or stay a full member.

I would risk calling it off and declaring the vote not big enough to undo decades of membership and risking our own Union. Cite Scotland and NI voted to stay, the margin was too low overall, the Irish border wasn't considered fully and stalling the economy any longer is not possible. A simple majority was wrong and leads to an impasse, it's so slight it could be 51% the other way another year and back again. Changing the course of 4 nations over such a meager margin is silly. There has to be a greater appetite one way or the other otherwise we'll just be in limbo with no direction to go.

The only other way is leave and try to survive, we'll see if we can or not. We could be ok or be banging on the door to rejoin the EU, that might be the best way but still, to do that on such a tiny margin is just wrong.
 
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NinjaFletch said:
You realise that's a council by-election where the Tories lost 18% of the vote, right?
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I do yes. You realise this is a strong indicator of voting intention in a GE right? Or do you think people switch off national politics when they vote for local council elections?
 
Virgil said:
No it's not. My gut feeling is that a GE is the only way to solve the problem. As I see it the trouble with the call to stop a 'no deal brexit' is for many as much of a lie as it was for the the leavers to put that 350m per week on the side of a bus. Truth is that most who are railing against a no deal brexit if they are honest want no form of brexit at all in much the same way as some want a no deal brexit. The only way out of the impasse is for either for the Conservative party with the aid of the Brexit party to get a really decent working majority or for those two parties to be hammered at the next election. There simply is not a middle ground. Teresa thought she would pull it off when she called the 2017 election but of course folks were already peed off with austerity.

However should the opinion polls be correct in calling a tight race a GE might solve nowt and we end up with another minority government. With either the Conservatives again propped up by the DUP or Labour propped up by the SNP. Mind you if the latter were to be the outcome I'd expect the SNP price to be agreement to another Scottish Independence Referendum.

As one or two others have previously said I do not believe we are truly ever going to see the end of this. It really has split the country in half. Even if there were to be a turnaround and we decided to stay in the EU I would expect at least 40 percent of the population to be as much up in arms as those in advocating remain are the upshot being that the UK would continue in perpetuity to be a reluctant partner in the European Project.

I have almost come around to the view that we should leave and suffer the consequences. Although that's tough to say I reckon that its only by feeling the pain that we might one day realise that being in the EU is better than being out and embrace rejoining. Then again what the heck do I know. Not much really except that all politicians are playing party politics. Not one of them give a damn for the country and the only time I live in a democracy is for the 5 minutes when they seek my vote on GE day. Once elected the tossers do just as they please.
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Agree with almost every word apart from the first 2 sentences but ..
without a GE you get a Tory no deal brexit

With a GE you get four possible outcomes:
Tory overall majority - no deal brexit
Tory + Brexit Party/DUP - no deal Brexit
Labour overall majority - who knows - could be remain - another referendum - unicorns - back to 3 years ago. Going round in circles.
Labour + SNP/LibDems - ditto more towards remain ie revoke A50.
 
Virgil said:
No it's not. My gut feeling is that a GE is the only way to solve the problem. As I see it the trouble with the call to stop a 'no deal brexit' is for many as much of a lie as it was for the the leavers to put that 350m per week on the side of a bus. Truth is that most who are railing against a no deal brexit if they are honest want no form of brexit at all in much the same way as some want a no deal brexit. The only way out of the impasse is for either for the Conservative party with the aid of the Brexit party to get a really decent working majority or for those two parties to be hammered at the next election. There simply is not a middle ground. .
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And what happens if neither of the bolded options you outline happens in a GE. What happens if there's no majority and hung parliament again? What view prevails?

And how is a GE the only way to address a specific question that was started by a referendum, but a referendum isn't?
 
MadMike said:
I do yes. You realise this is a strong indicator of voting intention in a GE right? Or do you think people switch off national politics when they vote for local council elections?
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Oh come off it, a suburb of Shrewsbury which has voted Tory in council elections since the ward was created being held by the Tories with an 18% swing against them tells you nothing, and if it does tell you anything (which it doesn't) what it tells you is that there's a big swing against the Tories.

The Greens won every seat in my ward less than 3 months ago, you don't see me claiming that there's going to be a Green clean sweep of the HoC.
 
NinjaFletch said:
Oh come off it, a suburb of Shrewsbury which has voted Tory in council elections since the ward was created being held by the Tories with an 18% swing against them tells you nothing, and if it does tell you anything (which it doesn't) what it tells you is that there's a big swing against the Tories.
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It does tell me there's a big swing against the Tories but it also tells me that they could still get a majority in a GE as the Remain vote is split between Greens, Lib Dems and in part Labour. I mean if you don't see the high probability of that, I'd urge you to come off it.
 
MadMike said:
It does tell me there's a big swing against the Tories but it also tells me that they could still get a majority in a GE as the Remain vote is split between Greens, Lib Dems and in part Labour. I mean if you don't see the high probability of that, I'd urge you to come off it.
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Yes, and that can be true without this by-election result being in the slightest bit interesting.

I mean it's literally a council election. Brexit won't have been mentioned by any of the candidates and there won't have been a pact between the Greens/Lib Dems because they'll disagree on what day of the week bins should be collected. The 18% swing against the Tories is just (probably more tbh, given local polling) to be because people don't like the cakes the Tory councillor sells in her bakery than anything else. Extrapolating any larger conclusions out of a tiny and unrepresentative sample size is fraught with danger.

The far more important recent example is that of the Lib Dems winning a seat in the HoC after they did come to an arrangement with Plaid and the Greens to field a Remain candidate.
 
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Paul the Wolf said:
None of them are my mates, all of the parties are unelectable. This concept of a GE solving the problem is equally daft - whoever gets in, and we all know LibDems will never get in, the UK will be back to square one at the end of it, it doesn't solve anything.
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Well that will tell you that there is no appetite to cancel brexit amongst the masses, so why is anyone even discussing brexit?
 
Stanley Road said:
Well that will tell you that there is no appetite to cancel brexit amongst the masses, so why is anyone even discussing brexit?
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As a remainer I would gladly vote for the Lib Dems in a general election. However unfortunately most people are set in their ways for which party they vote - and so will still vote labour or tory regardless. My parents for example will always vote tory, no matter what.

I agree with the post you were replying to - the lib dems won't get in. That doesn't however show there is no appetite to cancel brexit, instead just a reflection of politics in this country. People are fixed in their ways.
 
Of course the Lib Dems won’t get in. They’re still treated as some minor irrelevancy by the media and by voters even when they’re doing really well.

Their leader points out some simple parliamentary maths, and is basically told to sit down and follow Labours lead, because hey Corbyn is the official opposition leader, despite doing nothing but obstruct the anti-Brexit movement for the last 3 years.
 
Why would anyone, who is not an ardent Jeremy fan, believe he would remain in the EU.? Jeremy's after his own kind of 'no deal' with the EU.

Corbyn's whole political life has been in a anti-EU stance, even before most of the ERG were! Jeremy is a man who has been, in political terms 'baying at the moon' all his life. By a stupendous mistake the Labour party adopted him as its leader, then allowed his 'shock troops' to as it were storm the bastille and make sure he got elected again. Given his Marxist beliefs it would be reasonable to assume that once he obtained power, by whatever means, he would be difficult to shift. This would be nothing new as Jeremy holds fast to his views and in fairness always has, that has been one of his attractions to many of his disciples; however let no one be fooled, Jeremy wants out from the EU as much as any euro-sceptic Tory, if he can use Brexit to get his hands on the leavers of power, then all his revolutionary dreams will come true. Its something of a minor miracle he has got so far... but then they said that about Trump!
 
Maticmaker said:
Why would anyone, who is not an ardent Jeremy fan, believe he would remain in the EU.? Jeremy's after his own kind of 'no deal' with the EU.

Corbyn's whole political life has been in a anti-EU stance, even before most of the ERG were! Jeremy is a man who has been, in political terms 'baying at the moon' all his life. By a stupendous mistake the Labour party adopted him as its leader, then allowed his 'shock troops' to as it were storm the bastille and make sure he got elected again. Given his Marxist beliefs it would be reasonable to assume that once he obtained power, by whatever means, he would be difficult to shift. This would be nothing new as Jeremy holds fast to his views and in fairness always has, that has been one of his attractions to many of his disciples; however let no one be fooled, Jeremy wants out from the EU as much as any euro-sceptic Tory, if he can use Brexit to get his hands on the leavers of power, then all his revolutionary dreams will come true. Its something of a minor miracle he has got so far... but then they said that about Trump!
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Aww, you were doing so well!

I found a thread for this sort of thing :D
 
Stanley Road said:
Well that will tell you that there is no appetite to cancel brexit amongst the masses, so why is anyone even discussing brexit?
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Maybe there isn't but Brexit will have the biggest impact on the UK since the war and that includes all the recessions. Everyone's playing party politics and think Brexit will be a minor hiccup.
I don't expect Brexit to be cancelled and I don't expect the UK to get a different deal.

Which doesn't leave much else - it's just a question of when and then reality might finally hit home.
 
Maticmaker said:
Why would anyone, who is not an ardent Jeremy fan, believe he would remain in the EU.? Jeremy's after his own kind of 'no deal' with the EU.

Corbyn's whole political life has been in a anti-EU stance, even before most of the ERG were! Jeremy is a man who has been, in political terms 'baying at the moon' all his life. By a stupendous mistake the Labour party adopted him as its leader, then allowed his 'shock troops' to as it were storm the bastille and make sure he got elected again. Given his Marxist beliefs it would be reasonable to assume that once he obtained power, by whatever means, he would be difficult to shift. This would be nothing new as Jeremy holds fast to his views and in fairness always has, that has been one of his attractions to many of his disciples; however let no one be fooled, Jeremy wants out from the EU as much as any euro-sceptic Tory, if he can use Brexit to get his hands on the leavers of power, then all his revolutionary dreams will come true. Its something of a minor miracle he has got so far... but then they said that about Trump!
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What do you mean by the bolded? That Corbyn would somehow try to change or circumvent the democratic process to hold on to power like a dictator? Because if so, I have no fecking idea where this is coming from and I'm not even Labour never mind Corbyn. If you mean that'll he'll try to stay in power by normal democraatic means, then how is it any different from any other party or leader?

I might not like the guy but I've got no clue where this whole propaganda that he's somehow dangerous, is coming from. Because it sure isn't based on reality. Feckless perhaps. A dangerous would-be dictator? No.
 
MadMike said:
And what happens if neither of the bolded options you outline happens in a GE. What happens if there's no majority and hung parliament again? What view prevails?

And how is a GE the only way to address a specific question that was started by a referendum, but a referendum isn't?
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Economically that would be bad as nothing spooks markets like uncertainty... But in terms of political horsetrading it would be fascinating

Snp probably demanding independence
Libs demanding an immediate referendum on brexit... Probably pushing for pr as well

Independents probably going to be offered cushy jobs

Everybody demanding labour get rid of Corbyn as a pre condition to working with them?

I think Boris will get th majority he needs if they can secure a pact with the brexit party... Mainly down to the toxic brand of Corbyn rather than people wanting Johnson though
 
MadMike said:
That Corbyn would somehow try to change or circumvent the democratic process to hold on to power like a dictator?
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Well in the present heated political atmosphere, where Johnson is supposedly either going to prorogue parliament, or refuse to leave if he loses a vote of confidence, where the leader of the Liberals has said she wouldn't accept the results of a second referendum if it turned out to be Leave again, then suggesting a Marxist might seek to hold on to power is not all that outrageous...is it?
 
Maticmaker said:
Well in the present heated political atmosphere, where Johnson is supposedly either going to prorogue parliament, or refuse to leave if he loses a vote of confidence, where the leader of the Liberals has said she wouldn't accept the results of a second referendum if it turned out to be Leave again, then suggesting a Marxist might seek to hold on to power is not all that outrageous...is it?
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Yes it is
 


No Deal is bad but this bogeyman I've constructed in my head will be even worse so feck it, let it happen.
 
I'm genuinely baffled as to what some centrists have been expecting to happen in their campaign to stop a No Deal. It's been fairly obvious that for as much as he's been rubbish on the EU, their stopping No Deal was always going to be contingent on Corbyn taking sides with them. There was never going to be any question of him stepping down because it's just not in his interests to do so. If Lib Dem/Tory remainers want to stop a No Deal, then their only option is that they side with Corbyn. In the case of said Tory MP's, it'll be devastating for their careers, yeah, but then their Tory credentials have already been smashed to pieces anyway by virtue of supporting the EU in the first place, and if they value staying in the EU so much then they're going to have to make certain compromises that may be uncomfortable for them.

That ultimately means backing Corbyn on this one. They really, really do not have as much bargaining power as they think they do here. And for all their claims that Corbyn is politically naive (on plenty of occasions a fair comment) they're coming across incredibly poorly in throwing their toys out of the pram with the expectation they'll be given exactly when they want when there's not really incentive for Corbyn to give away more than he has to.
 
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