Brexited | the worst threads live the longest

[devilish]

We are not going to deport any UK citizens, we are not savages. But the EU might become hostile.

it can easily degenerate into a tit for tat situation at this point. The Brits seems desperate to get their finger in the single market pie without paying for it (ie accepting freedom of movement). The EU won't allow that. If May decides to use the expats as leverage what would force the EU not to do the same thing?

 

[M18CTID]

Much like the WW3 nonsense, this 3x thing is only coming from you.

I didn't buy currency because I naively didn't think >50% of the population would be so stupid and shortsighted. My mistake, and it looks set to make everything on my upcoming trip at least 10% more expensive. That's not the big issue though, my view isn't so self-absorbed as to be centred around the cost of a dollar.

Just wait until employers start moving jobs abroad, until small businesses start failing and the £ falls even further.

"It'll all work out, honest" is about all anybody on the leave side has managed to come up with.

Cameron alluded to WW3, not me. The tripling in holiday prices was mooted by a so-called travel expert and a few fell for it.

Small businesses seem to be split on Brexit

 

[rcoobc]

Theresa May threatening to deport EU migrants.
UK has the most citizens living in other EU countries.
Ridiculous threat.

I don't think she was threatening, merely starting from an open negotiating position. She said both UK ex-pats in the EU and EU migrants in the UK could lose their rights. She's making no guarantees until they are given back to her.

 

[JPRouve]

it can easily degenerate into a tit for tat situation at this point. The Brits seems desperate to get their finger in the single market pie without paying for it (ie accepting freedom of movement). The EU won't allow that. If May decides to use the expats as leverage what forces the EU not to do the same thing?

A lot of Uk citizens are elligible for naturalization and most EU countries aren't fan of deportation, they won't be deported in France. The retaliation will concern the economy and the relocation of European companies.

 

[M18CTID]

I don't think she was threatening, merely starting from an open negotiating position. She said both UK ex-pats in the EU and EU migrants in the UK could lose their rights. She's making no guarantees until they are given back to her.

Pretty sure it's a negotiating position but I'll admit I'm not keen on her tone though.

 

[devilish]

A lot of Uk citizens are elligible for naturalization and most EU countries aren't fan of deportation, they won't be deported in France. The retaliation will concern the economy and the relocation of European companies.

I won't be so sure about that. Spain's NHS is under severe stress because of the British oldies.

TBF If I was a PM of a nation Id rather be in the receiving end of a horde of young people who are ready to work then at the receiving end of a horde of pensioners especially if Paris becomes the new London (ie in terms of Europe's financial capital city)

 

[Fener1907]

Cameron alluded to WW3, not me.

That's just you hamming up what was an already sensationalist spin on his comments by the Daily Mirror.

 

[M18CTID]

That's just you hamming up what was an already sensationalist spin on his comments by the Daily Mirror.

I don't disagree it was sensationalist but he shouldn't have alluded to any possible future conflict as a result of Brexit in the first place. Whatever happens, I doubt our continent will be going back to how things were in 1914 and 1939 and if we do leave the EU, on a military level the countries inside the EU will still be our allies.

 

[rcoobc]

Cameron alluded to WW3, not me. The tripling in holiday prices was mooted by a so-called travel expert and a few fell for it.

Small businesses seem to be split on Brexit

That's just you hamming up what was an already sensationalist spin on his comments by the Daily Mirror.

The WW3 stuff isn't an impossibility, just very unlikely.

- The UK leaves the EU (70%)

- The rest of the EU unravels: As stated by Farage, he wants to destroy the EU. The Front National in France want to follow us out the door. The Netherlands, Italy, and even Germany when Merkel goes could follow. (20%)

- Without the EU as a barrier, Russia starts skirmishing with countries like Finland (not in NATO) and maybe countries like Latvia/Estonia/Lithuania as a proxy war. Tensions rise. As NATO members, the US and its allies sends troops into these countries. Just a note here - anyone who thinks a Nuclear response would be on the table is deluded. The general threat of nuclear war hangs over our heads again, but as long as the main countries with nuclear weapons aren't attacked, that response remains unlikely. See 2017, war with Russia (?%)

- The proxy war in Europe spreads. Whether this is from well-funded rebels or another group, who knows. But war has returned to Europe.

 

[RedSky]

I don't disagree it was sensationalist but he shouldn't have alluded to any possible future conflict as a result of Brexit in the first place. Whatever happens, I doubt our continent will be going back to how things were in 1914 and 1939 and if we do leave the EU, on a military level the countries inside the EU will still be our allies.

I really don't like Scameron and i'm happy that he's fecking off. However, this WW3 bollocks needs to stop right now. The below is what he said, all of which is perfectly valid how exactly is that a warning of World War 3?

Can we be so sure peace and stability on our continent are assured beyond any shadow of doubt? Is that a risk worth taking? I would never be so rash to make that assumption.

As I sit around that table with 27 other prime ministers and presidents, we remember that it is pretty extraordinary that countries are working together to solve disputes and problems. We should listen to the voices that say Europe had a violent history, we’ve managed to avoid that and so why put at risk the things that achieve that?

Now we look at the reactions by the media:

Guardian - Leaving EU would threaten UK's peace and stability, says Cameron
Mirror - 'Brexit' could trigger World War Three, warns David Cameron
DailyMail - Cameron warns Brexit would lead to war and genocide

I can't be bothered to look at any more but you get the idea... genocide

 

[ThierryHenry]

 

[Fener1907]

I don't disagree it was sensationalist but he shouldn't have alluded to any possible future conflict as a result of Brexit in the first place. Whatever happens, I doubt our continent will be going back to how things were in 1914 and 1939 and if we do leave the EU, on a military level the countries inside the EU will still be our allies.

I also doubt it, but I do think that people take for granted how unprecedented it is for European nations to have such a harmonious relationship. Whilst extremely unlikely that we'll come close to the horrors that have blighted the continent in the past, it's because they happened that it wasn't wrong of him to question how Brexit will affect certain relationships and potentially undermine the cohesiveness in opposing certain threats.

 

[Rado_N]

Cameron alluded to WW3, not me. The tripling in holiday prices was mooted by a so-called travel expert and a few fell for it.

Small businesses seem to be split on Brexit

I see the ridiculousness of your ww3 stuff has already been pointed out above. As for a travel agent pontificating on holiday prices, I tend to pay more attention to economists when looking at economic forecasts.

Small businesses won't be split on the issue once they start failing. Not that the ones who voted leave will accept that had anything to do with it.

 

[M18CTID]

I also doubt it, but I do think that people take for granted how unprecedented it is for European nations to have such a harmonious relationship. Whilst extremely unlikely that we'll come close to the horrors that have blighted the continent in the past, it's because they happened that it wasn't wrong of him to question how Brexit will affect certain relationships and potentially undermine the cohesiveness in opposing certain threats.

I think if we take the ISIS threat for example. That's a very real threat to the whole of Europe of course but I don't think the UK being in or out of the EU makes that threat any worse or better. Our intelligence services will continue to liaise and exchange information with their European counterparts. Of course, we're also a member of NATO and will continue to be which in military terms is more relevant IMO.

There seems to be this notion in some quarters that by being out of the EU means we become the pariahs of the world and while Brexit will no doubt cause some issues, I don't see that happening.

 

[M18CTID]

I see the ridiculousness of your ww3 stuff has already been pointed out above. As for a travel agent pontificating on holiday prices, I tend to pay more attention to economists when looking at economic forecasts.

Small businesses won't be split on the issue once they start failing. Not that the ones who voted leave will accept that had anything to do with it.

Maybe you should've paid attention to them when they stated our currency would get a right twatting in the wake of a Brexit vote

Do you believe income tax will go up by 2p once article 50 is invoked?

 

[Zarlak]

Maybe you should've paid attention to them when they stated our currency would get a right twatting in the wake of a Brexit vote

Do you believe income tax will go up by 2p once article 50 is invoked?

I think he did. I think the difference is he also paid attention to them when they stated our economy would tank as a result of a Brexit vote and not just in the short term. That's where I think you might have switched off.

 

[M18CTID]

I think he did. I think the difference is he also paid attention to them when they stated our economy would tank as a result of a Brexit vote and not just in the short term. That's where I think you might have switched off.

To be fair, I jumped in my Delorean (beats an imaginary crystal ball any day of the week) and fast forwarded 10 years - things didn't look too bad to me.

 

[Zarlak]

To be fair, I jumped in my Delorean and fast forwarded 10 years - things didn't look too bad to me.

I would double check the flux capacitors.

Also that doesn't really mean much. If we go into a 2 year recession, a 3 year recession, a 5 year recession or a 7 year recession and come out of it in 10 years time then it still isn't anywhere close to being worth what we just gave up, and the punishment it will cost us financially to come out the other side with nothing to show for it.

 

[Rado_N]

Maybe you should've paid attention to them when they stated our currency would get a right twatting in the wake of a Brexit vote

Do you believe income tax will go up by 2p once article 50 is invoked?

I was in this very thread making the exact same point. Along with the point that the economy would take a shafting in general.

As I've already said to you, I naively thought our population was smarter than to vote for that.

As for income tax, I wouldn't rule anything out.

 

[M18CTID]

I would double check the flux capacitors.

Also that doesn't really mean much. If we go into a 2 year recession, a 3 year recession, a 5 year recession or a 7 year recession and come out of it in 10 years time then it still isn't anywhere close to being worth what we just gave up, and the punishment it will cost us financially to come out the other side with nothing to show for it.

They're fine - you serviced them

There's no guarantee we'll even plunge into recession yet so talking about how long it will last is a bit a moot at this moment in time. However, not everyone shares the view that if we have better prospects generally in 10 years time as a result of being out of the EU, it won't have been worth it. I know people who voted to leave with that long-term future in mind for their kids - not the short-medium term.

 

[M18CTID]

I was in this very thread making the exact same point. Along with the point that the economy would take a shafting in general.

As I've already said to you, I naively thought our population was smarter than to vote for that.

As for income tax, I wouldn't rule anything out.

Ok, I won't keep banging on about that - unlike some people (not you by the way), I don't take any satisfaction out of an error of judgement leaving someone out of pocket.

I don't think the income tax idea will happen. Osborne is already talking about the government borrowing more money to cover any possible shortfall instead of increasing the tax burden. I know that it won't be him making that decision but I think it gave us a clue as to what action the government will take.

 

[Zarlak]

They're fine - you serviced them

There's no guarantee we'll even plunge into recession yet so talking about how long it will last is a bit a moot at this moment in time. However, not everyone shares the view that if we have better prospects generally in 10 years time as a result of being out of the EU, it won't have been worth it. I know people who voted to leave with that long-term future in mind for their kids - not the short-medium term.

You have to think what exactly they based their decision on. Given that the vast majority of experts said it was going to be bad, you have to wonder who they put their stock in. The minority of experts that didn't state that everything would be bad but were nowhere to be found or the uninformed leaders of the leave campaign who have already themselves admitted that most of what they promised is unlikely to change. There's not really much left to make up your mind from.

 

[evra]

He can say it better than I can:

 

[M18CTID]

You have to think what exactly they based their decision on. Given that the vast majority of experts said it was going to be bad, you have to wonder who they put their stock in. The minority of experts that didn't state that everything would be bad but were nowhere to be found or the uninformed leaders of the leave campaign who have already themselves admitted that most of what they promised is unlikely to change. There's not really much left to make up your mind from.

Many of those experts cited the main reason for their pessimism as being “loss of access to the single market” (67%). I don't see how leaving the EU necessarily equates to us not having access to the single market. That tells me they've factored in a worst-case scenario on that score.

 

[Silva]

Many of those experts cited the main reason for their pessimism as being “loss of access to the single market” (67%). I don't see how leaving the EU necessarily equates to us not having access to the single market. That tells me they've factored in a worst-case scenario on that score.

It's either going to be loss of access to the single market, or a very high portion of leave voters don't get what they wanted (significant reduction in immigration). Either way, it's not going to go down well.

 

[JPRouve]

He can say it better than I can:

Is the chancellor of the exchequer directly elected for that role or is he appointed?

 

[Zarlak]

Many of those experts cited the main reason for their pessimism as being “loss of access to the single market” (67%). I don't see how leaving the EU necessarily equates to us not having access to the single market. That tells me they've factored in a worst-case scenario on that score.

Because the entire leave campaign was based around us getting rid of one of the core aspects of having access to the single market. There is your answer. That is why leaving the EU equates to us not having access to the single market.

Unless you concede that we will have free movement and still retain access to the single market, which means that there was no point in leaving, the whole crux of the leave campaign is moot and we've given up our seat at the table for nothing. In which case, you have to think what exactly they based their decision on. Given that the vast majority of experts said it was going to be bad, you have to wonder who they put their stock in. The minority of experts that didn't state that everything would be bad but were nowhere to be found or the uninformed leaders of the leave campaign who have already themselves admitted that most of what they promised is unlikely to change. There's not really much left to make up your mind from.

 

[slig]

So the answer to this self made mess is lowering taxes for companys? Wtf? Neoliberal agenda at its best. Its getting worse and worse for british people. Suffering of huge areas coming from neoliberal politics leads to vote for the Brexit (seemed that they yet dont understand that the EU could have been an opposite to that shit, and quite was an opposite refering to all the EU funds financing structural things and projects which could have been a benefit for the future) leads to more neoliberal politics. Well, that country is fecked up. Hopefully the Scots find a way out of this and can prosper.

 

[Paul the Wolf]

Is the chancellor of the exchequer directly elected for that role or is he appointed?

Appointed

 

[JPRouve]

So the answer to this self made mess is lowering taxes for companys? Wtf? Neoliberal agenda at its best. Its getting worse and worse for british people. Suffering of huge areas coming from neoliberal politics leads to vote for the Brexit (seemed that they yet dont understand that the EU could have been an opposite to that shit, and quite was an opposite refering to all the EU funds financing structural things and projects which could have been a benefit for the future) leads to more neoliberal politics. Well, that country is fecked up. Hopefully the Scots find a way out of this and can prosper.

They will need some dumping if they are not member of the free market which means that the working class got shafted.

 

[JPRouve]

Appointed

I know, I'm just pointing out the hypocrisy of that well spoken man, who is going to pretend that in England technical positions are submitted to popular suffrages. I may be alone but I don't want to vote the commissioner for climate and energy, I have absolutely no competence for that.

 

[Will Absolute]

It's either going to be loss of access to the single market, or a very high portion of leave voters don't get what they wanted (significant reduction in immigration). Either way, it's not going to go down well.

Not true. Free Trade simply involves setting the level of tariff barriers between two countries to zero; freedom of movement is not an integral part of the package. Within Europe, the EU link Free Trade and freedom of movement to advance their political agenda; the two ideas can be unlinked. The final outcome will depend on the negotiating strength of the two parties.

In the wake of the referendum, as stock market reaction showed, the EU economy looks more fragile than Britain's. The assumption that the EU can impose a solution on a hapless UK is wrong.

 

[M18CTID]

Because the entire leave campaign was based around us getting rid of one of the core aspects of having access to the single market. There is your answer. That is why leaving the EU equates to us not having access to the single market.

Unless you concede that we will have free movement and still retain access to the single market, which means that there was no point in leaving, the whole crux of the leave campaign is moot and we've given up our seat at the table for nothing. In which case, you have to think what exactly they based their decision on. Given that the vast majority of experts said it was going to be bad, you have to wonder who they put their stock in. The minority of experts that didn't state that everything would be bad but were nowhere to be found or the uninformed leaders of the leave campaign who have already themselves admitted that most of what they promised is unlikely to change. There's not really much left to make up your mind from.

Well I for one, and many others, voted to come out of the EU - there were no sub questions on the ballot paper about access or lack of it to the free market. You can repeat what certain incumbents of the leave campaign said as much as you want but I didn't vote on what the likes of Farage said and neither did a whole load of other people. In fact, the only thing I heard from him during the campaign was when he was wittering on one Sunday about Sterling taking a tumble. You're falling into the trap of thinking 17.4 million people all voted to leave because they wanted rid of free movement of people yet that wasn't even a consideration for me. I'm sure it's not escaped your attention that a country can be out of the EU but still have access to the free market.

 

[Paul the Wolf]

I know, I'm just pointing out the hypocrisy of that well spoken man, who is going to pretend that in England technical positions are submitted to popular suffrages. I may be alone but I don't want to vote the commissioner for climate and energy, I have absolutely no competence for that.

Whoever will be appointed C of The Ex - good luck with that job

 

[Silva]

Not true. Free Trade simply involves setting the level of tariff barriers between two countries to zero; freedom of movement is not an integral part of the package. Within Europe, the EU link Free Trade and freedom of movement to advance their political agenda; the two ideas can be unlinked. The final outcome will depend on the negotiating strength of the two parties.

In the wake of the referendum, as stock market reaction showed, the EU economy looks more fragile than Britain's. The assumption that the EU can impose a solution on a hapless UK is wrong.

Every company that can afford it is already looking to move from Britain to EU nations. That should let you know who is and isn't in the drivers seat here. Free trade always has other rules attached to it. The EU's Europe model happens to have free movement.

 

[Rado_N]

Well I for one, and many others, voted to come out of the EU - there were no sub questions on the ballot paper about access or lack of it to the free market. You can repeat what certain incumbents of the leave campaign said as much as you want but I didn't vote on what the likes of Farage said and neither did a whole load of other people. In fact, the only thing I heard from him during the campaign was when he was wittering on one Sunday about Sterling taking a tumble. You're falling into the trap of thinking 17.4 million people all voted to leave because they wanted rid of free movement of people yet that wasn't even a consideration for me. I'm sure it's not escaped your attention that a country can be out of the EU but still have access to the free market.

Immigration was by far the biggest issue driving the whole thing.

 

[Zarlak]

Well I for one, and many others, voted to come out of the EU - there were no sub questions on the ballot paper about access or lack of it to the free market. You can repeat what certain incumbents of the leave campaign said as much as you want but I didn't vote on what the likes of Farage said and neither did a whole load of other people. In fact, the only thing I heard from him during the campaign was when he was wittering on one Sunday about Sterling taking a tumble. You're falling into the trap of thinking 17.4 million people all voted to leave because they wanted rid of free movement of people yet that wasn't even a consideration for me. I'm sure it's not escaped your attention that a country can be out of the EU but still have access to the free market.

There didn't need to be, you knew the options in advance. Yes it hasn't escaped my attention that country can be out of the EU but still have access to the free market... because of payments to Brussels, free movement and abiding by their regulations, you know all the reasons people just voted to leave.

 

[M18CTID]

Immigration was by far the biggest issue driving the whole thing.

Pretty sure sovereignty was the number one reason rather than immigration.

 

[Fener1907]

I think if we take the ISIS threat for example. That's a very real threat to the whole of Europe of course but I don't think the UK being in or out of the EU makes that threat any worse or better. Our intelligence services will continue to liaise and exchange information with their European counterparts. Of course, we're also a member of NATO and will continue to be which in military terms is more relevant IMO.

There seems to be this notion in some quarters that by being out of the EU means we become the pariahs of the world and while Brexit will no doubt cause some issues, I don't see that happening.

I don't think of ISIS as an example of what he was talking about. It's the stability of the relationship between nations that is of more importance, something that 'Brexit' is far more likely to have an impact on. Lunatic extremists, meanwhile, will just continue to be themselves.

 

[M18CTID]

There didn't need to be, you knew the options in advance. Yes it hasn't escaped my attention that country can be out of the EU but still have access to the free market... because of payments to Brussels, free movement and abiding by their regulations, you know all the reasons people just voted to leave.

But being out of the EU while still having access to the free market gives us more scope to sign trade deals with non-EU countries.