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Do you think there will be a Deal or No Deal?


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Labour voting against the withdrawal agreement today is a tough sell really. Stammer out trying his best and with good reason but to the layman it doesn't look good.
didnt they say in the past they were ok with the W.A but they had issues with the political declaration...
Dont think it will be too much of a tough sell though as when the W.A. looses again today all the focus is probably on eiether
no deal on 12th or request long extension
And I think may will be gone on or around the 12th and all the preassure will be on her to announce a date... no real focus on labours reasoning regarding this I think
 
I have zero sympathy for the people who couldn't get off their lazy arses to vote. Maybe this shitshow will lead them to stop being so ignorant next time, but I don't hold out much hope of that.
I know you don't mean them, but there are a good few million who were simply too young to vote. They'll be graduating into a post brexit economy on top of all the other problems they'll inherit. Then there's those who simply didn't vote because they didn't feel qualified to make a decision, those too have my full sympathy (despite most of them wandering into the "geronwitit" camp these days). Even the gullible among the leavers, they didn't know what they were voting for... But I guess it's a lot easier for me to offer sympathy when I'm not as affected by all of it.
 
But at least we'll make our own laws and wont be taking orders from Brussels.

Like... erm.... something about farms in Somerset? The EU makes us do something, or is it that it prevents us from doing something? I forget. But anyway, whatever it is, it will cease to be the huge problem it so clearly is.

Three cheers for Brexit.
 
I know you don't mean them, but there are a good few million who were simply too young to vote. They'll be graduating into a post brexit economy on top of all the other problems they'll inherit. Then there's those who simply didn't vote because they didn't feel qualified to make a decision, those too have my full sympathy (despite most of them wandering into the "geronwitit" camp these days). Even the gullible among the leavers, they didn't know what they were voting for... But I guess it's a lot easier for me to offer sympathy when I'm not as affected by all of it.
I've heard some people say this and fair enough. The problem too many voted despite not knowing enough.
 
Are the government attempting a monumentally stupid slight of hand? Are they 1) banking on MPs not realising that it is the WA which contains the backstop provision which so many Brexiters hate, and 2) that they think MPs won't realise that a vote for the WA is also a vote for the PD?

Not that voting through the PD means anything, as it can be ripped up and discarded at any time, but do the government hope that MPs won't realise they are voting on exactly the same thing they have rejected twice already?

Ian Dunt Retweeted
Jessica Simor QC
‏ @JMPSimor
5h5 hours ago

Tomorrow, when MPs vote on the Withdrawal Agreement alone, they are in fact also voting for the political declaration. That is because Article 184 of the Withdrawal Agreement, in line with Article 50 TEU, incorporates it by reference.
41 replies . 351 retweets 361 likes

More importantly, are enough MPs clever enough not to fall for such a ploy? On the evidence so far...
 
Labour voting against the withdrawal agreement today is a tough sell really. Stammer out trying his best and with good reason but to the layman it doesn't look good.
They will regret this. Even if her deal doesn't pass, it is difficult to see how May can carry on. There will be a new Tory leader who will have not been voted in by the people. Most leaders in that position will want a GE at some point to give themselves a mandate. TM did just that. With the polls as they were the decision was sound IMO. The campaign though was a total car crash that slashed the Tory majority.

The new Tory leader will probably be a leaver. They will run a GE campaign on honouring the referendum and Labour will not know what to put in their manifesto. They will be trashed for stopping the UK's exit when there was a chance to do so. Stammers argument is a thin veil covering the real Labour aim and that is to never agree with the government about anything at all.

And they point the finger at May for putting party before country. Total hypocrisy.
 
They will regret this. Even if her deal doesn't pass, it is difficult to see how May can carry on. There will be a new Tory leader who will have not been voted in by the people. Most leaders in that position will want a GE at some point to give themselves a mandate. TM did just that. With the polls as they were the decision was sound IMO. The campaign though was a total car crash that slashed the Tory majority.

The new Tory leader will probably be a leaver. They will run a GE campaign on honouring the referendum and Labour will not know what to put in their manifesto. They will be trashed for stopping the UK's exit when there was a chance to do so. Stammers argument is a thin veil covering the real Labour aim and that is to never agree with the government about anything at all.

And they point the finger at May for putting party before country. Total hypocrisy.

There's no possible way (and never has been) for Labour to come out of this looking good.

Voting for May's deal would be even more disastrous. It's still incredibly unpopular and rightfully so.
 
But at least we'll make our own laws and wont be taking orders from Brussels.

Like... erm.... something about farms in Somerset? The EU makes us do something, or is it that it prevents us from doing something? I forget. But anyway, whatever it is, it will cease to be the huge problem it so clearly is.

Three cheers for Brexit.
One MP in Somerset won't be worried.

im-jacob-rees-mogg-conservative-mp-for-north-east-somerset-the-821939644.png
 
There's no possible way (and never has been) for Labour to come out of this looking good.

Voting for May's deal would be even more disastrous. It's still incredibly unpopular and rightfully so.
There is a big slice of trust attached to the deal I'll admit. But it is a way out. Also I do not subscribe to the notion that all negotiations must be tinged with hatred to the point of verging on war. The DUP - because of their past - are imbuing this situation with just that and it is total over-kill IMO. Taken (calmly) in the round the deal, when looked at properly, is not that bad. It has been hyped up to be hated by the wider population by Parliamentary ultras at both ends. Ken Clarke doesn't have a problem with it and I put a lot of trust in his judgement. This was always going to be a compromise and if we truly wish to call the EU members our friends then we should take them at their word when they say that they have, equally, no desire to persist with a backstop any longer than absolutely necessary.

Labour are stopping this for totally political reasons.
 
It's the only way they could prevent a no deal crash out. It also opens up the possibility of us changing our minds and remaining.
Is there any article or reading material which deals with the economic impact of a no deal brexit from EU's point of view and why it would be in EU's interest to have a deal agreed with Britain prior to their exit?
 
Will there be unrest from the leavers today.Or just a shrug of the shoulders.
 
They will regret this. Even if her deal doesn't pass, it is difficult to see how May can carry on. There will be a new Tory leader who will have not been voted in by the people. Most leaders in that position will want a GE at some point to give themselves a mandate. TM did just that. With the polls as they were the decision was sound IMO. The campaign though was a total car crash that slashed the Tory majority.

The new Tory leader will probably be a leaver. They will run a GE campaign on honouring the referendum and Labour will not know what to put in their manifesto. They will be trashed for stopping the UK's exit when there was a chance to do so. Stammers argument is a thin veil covering the real Labour aim and that is to never agree with the government about anything at all.

And they point the finger at May for putting party before country. Total hypocrisy.

What a load of bullshit. Putting party before country would be them voting for the WA today. There's no hypocrisy they stood on a platform of stopping a disastrous brexit and they don't want to step off the cliff before they know if there's rocks underneath.

The easy and electable route is for Labour to vote it through. They'll be punished for voting against something they agree with because the public are dim and can't think two steps ahead.
 
Is there any article or reading material which deals with the economic impact of a no deal brexit from EU's point of view and why it would be in EU's interest to have a deal agreed with Britain prior to their exit?
I cant think of anything specific but it has been discussed a lot as one part of a broader issue.

The countries closest to the UK suffer the most. What the Brexiters said in the campaign about German cars and French wine was true in the sense that they stand to lose a significant part of their market, they were just wrong that this would be decisive and lead to political capitulation. There are charts like this that show the direct impact in numbers:

BrexEffect.png


The biggest issue is Ireland. And having an economic basket case on your doorstep is never good news, so they want to try and find a balance between making sure we are worse off outside the EU, but not so badly off that it becomes destabilising.
 
Is there any article or reading material which deals with the economic impact of a no deal brexit from EU's point of view and why it would be in EU's interest to have a deal agreed with Britain prior to their exit?

Britain and Ireland will be the worst effected, but the rest of the EU will also take an almighty hit.

IMF warnings on economic damage to EU in the event of no deal:

https://amp.theguardian.com/busines...t-would-harm-all-european-countries-warns-imf

NYT article on the vulnerability of different EU regions in a no deal scenario:

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2019/02/07/world/europe/brexit-impact-on-european-union.html
 
I thought the EU said they'd extend the deadline for a couple of weeks, only if May's deal was voted for?
 
There's no possible way (and never has been) for Labour to come out of this looking good.

Voting for May's deal would be even more disastrous. It's still incredibly unpopular and rightfully so.

The best outcome for Labour was always to vote against Mays deal but for it to pass anyway. Then they could continue to make their ambiguous pitch to both Remainers and Brexiters.

Ironically their success in the GE has complicated things. Now we’ve ended up with a situation where their votes actually matter in the house and it looks unlikely any Tory vote could pass without their support. They can kick the can down the road for as long as they like by pushing for further A50 extensions, even perhaps forcing a GE. But with things balanced as they are it looks like one day they’ll be forced to choose between voting for a Tory Deal or defaulting to a No Deal.
 
Loved this quote found in the Graun :lol:

On Thursday night Newsnight reported that a cabinet minister, when asked why May was pressing ahead with another vote she was sure she would lose, replied: “feck knows, I am past caring. It’s like the living dead in here.”
 
Happy Brexit day everyone.

Shouldn't it be 'Happy Groundhog' day?

Another day in Parliament (and probably again on Monday) when the majority of MP's will hold their noses and vote a particular way, for a so called compromise solution. Some will vote for something because they have been told to by whips; some will vote to thwart the Government or Opposition motions; some will vote with an eye on keeping their seats at the next GE; some will vote to get their own back on their own leadership or individuals within it, and some might actually vote for what they believe in? I do find it strange that those MP's either Leave or Remain, who will vote as their conscience tells them are known in Parliament as the "extremist" element.

For goodness sake what has the UK Political system come to? We have a first past the post/Winner takes it all system which is fine... until there are 'no winners' or until Parliament doesn't wants to recognise any. One thing the Brexit experience has done is to make us aware that we need to put our own house in order, never mind the EU, and when the dust settles, who knows maybe we will?
 
I thought the EU said they'd extend the deadline for a couple of weeks, only if May's deal was voted for?

That extension is already determined, people are talking about an other one which would only be determined in an emergency summit before April 12th and we don't really know what conditions EU leaders have for it outside of EU elections.
 
I thought the EU said they'd extend the deadline for a couple of weeks, only if May's deal was voted for?

The extension to 12 April has already been granted. This extension was unconditional.

The extension to 22 May is conditional on the WA being voted through before 11pm today.
 
It's not really exhaustive but it gives you an idea.

https://www.ft.com/content/a8f4f0ec-8bcd-11e8-b18d-0181731a0340

I cant think of anything specific but it has been discussed a lot as one part of a broader issue.

The countries closest to the UK suffer the most. What the Brexiters said in the campaign about German cars and French wine was true in the sense that they stand to lose a significant part of their market, they were just wrong that this would be decisive and lead to political capitulation. There are charts like this that show the direct impact in numbers:

BrexEffect.png


The biggest issue is Ireland. And having an economic basket case on your doorstep is never good news, so they want to try and find a balance between making sure we are worse off outside the EU, but not so badly off that it becomes destabilising.

Britain and Ireland will be the worst effected, but the rest of the EU will also take an almighty hit.

IMF warnings on economic damage to EU in the event of no deal:

https://amp.theguardian.com/busines...t-would-harm-all-european-countries-warns-imf

NYT article on the vulnerability of different EU regions in a no deal scenario:

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2019/02/07/world/europe/brexit-impact-on-european-union.html

Thanks a lot.
 
Loved this quote found in the Graun :lol:

On Thursday night Newsnight reported that a cabinet minister, when asked why May was pressing ahead with another vote she was sure she would lose, replied: “feck knows, I am past caring. It’s like the living dead in here.”

it's great

 
I thought the EU said they'd extend the deadline for a couple of weeks, only if May's deal was voted for?

If its passed they will get until the 22nd May. presumably to get the legislation etc through and leave orderly.

If its not passed they have until 12th April to go back to Brussels with their next proposed steps. Which at this point look like feck all.
 
But the EU doesn't want devolvement. They don't see it as positive reform.

And I'm sorry but no sane person could gave expected even further concessions to the UK. You lot opted out of almost everything, you contribute less per capita than ITALY - if that's still not good enough, it's probably better if you leave instead of expecting the EU to cater to your every whim.

And I don't see greater centralisation as the answer either. It will do nothing to end the disquiet.

I agree, for some, nothing will ever be enough - they don't believe in the EU. But that's not say the EU can continue to ignore the criticism from across Europe of its approach/ideologies - because if they do, the UK's departure will be a precursor rather than an isolated case. Britain may be alone in actively wanting to leave, but they are by no means alone in how alienated they feel by the EU.
 
The MPs had a chance to find another option on Wednesday, e.g referendum. If Mays deal goes through today, those people have themselves to blame. If this goes through with any Labour MPs, those MPs are giving a blank cheque to Mays successor and will be responsible for the problems that ensue.
 
The extension to 12 April has already been granted. This extension was unconditional.

The extension to 22 May is conditional on the WA being voted through before 11pm today.

So do we think the offer to step down will actually be enough to bring her own party on board with deal? Another thing is that I thought the Speaker of the House already said there can't be a thrid vote on the same deal if no significant changes are introduced?
 
And I don't see greater centralisation as the answer either. It will do nothing to end the disquiet.

I agree, for some, nothing will ever be enough - they don't believe in the EU. But that's not say the EU can continue to ignore the criticism from across Europe of its approach/ideologies - because if they do, the UK's departure will be a precursor rather than an isolated case. Britain may be alone in actively wanting to leave, but they are by no means alone in how alienated they feel by the EU.
It's important to keep in mind, however, that even if the number of Eurosceptics grows, they are still a minority. Appeasing the minority out of fear is rarely a wise course of action.

The UK never really bought into the European project. Their vision of the EU is fundamentally different from, well, the actual aims and goals of it as stated in its constitutional documents. I do not believe the entire EU should start moving in a completely different direction simply for the sake of UK exceptionalism.

The assertion that the EU ignores criticism is essentially a meaningless one. What criticism does it ignore? What should it do? Who ignores the criticism? Those critical of it have voices: in the European Parliament, in the Council of the European Union, in the European Council. Its the ministers of national governments that appoint the members of the Commission.

The EU is not some monolithic dictatorial entity, it's just usually how it's depicted in Britain, for some reason. It's made up of its member states. Its governing bodies are made up of the member states' representatives. If those who believe that it should just be a free trade bloc or something similar gain a majority in these institutions, the EU will move toward devolvement. Until then it won't.