No surprise, anyone who thought we could go down the Norway model with no freedom of movement needs their head looked at.
And yeah the link doesn't work weirdly, but managed to get on via Google.
Brexited | the worst threads live the longest
- Thread starter Silva
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No surprise, anyone who thought we could go down the Norway model with no freedom of movement needs their head looked at.
And yeah the link doesn't work weirdly, but managed to get on via Google.
Sturgeon is just riding the wave of outrage in Scotland to cement the divide between the Scottish electorate and England. She is playing a long game not a short one IMO.
Norway as well as the other two EEC countries have to implement a hell of European Regulations and Directives, and again they have no vote to shape them. That could have been known if anybody read publicly available documents like this one http://researchbriefings.files.parliament.uk/documents/CBP-7213/CBP-7213.pdf or recalled the Norwegian politicians who appeared on Sky News and BBC confirming that this is the case soon after the date of the referendum was announced.
There was a study initiated by the House of Commons in 2013 which looked among other things into the model of an EEC country like Norway:
On a per capita basis, Norway pay 83% of what the UK do as EU member (see page 28 of http://researchbriefings.files.parliament.uk/documents/RP13-42/RP13-42.pdf):
... Secondly, EEA countries contribute to the costs of the EU programmes in which they participate under the EEA Agreement, in proportion to their percentage of EU GDP. The EEA states have also committed to second national experts to the Commission as an ‘in kind’ contribution to these programmes.
Norway, which by virtue of its relative size provides the vast majority of EEA contributions, provided £524m in 2011, or £106 per capita. This compares to the UK’s net budget contribution that year of £8.1bn, or £128 per capita. If the UK left the EU and instead contributed to the EU budget on the same basis as Norway, its contributions would fall by around 17%. Further details are shown in the table below.
...
Clearly would not happen but is a sensible place to start negotiation for all sorts of reasons. There has to be at least an attempt to represent the people's views on immigration (however flawed they are). Once these are quashed as they will be we should be able to restore free trade and carry on largely as we were, only with a hell of a lot of lawyers getting paid. And perhaps if looking on the sunny side with more possibility of better trade agreements with non EU nations.
Oh and even if our contributions go down a bit, that will be way more then offset by the reduction in what we get back...
Some good news. Sturgeon might hold max on Scottish independence if she doesn't think EU membership will be easy.
This was never in any doubt, Scotland do not have membership of the EU and would have to apply for membership should they leave the UK. To do this they would have to meet all kinds of onerous conditions (perhaps even join the Euro). It would also take a hell of a long time. In the interim period Scotland would be outside of the UK, outside of the EU and with a gaping hole in their budget as it stands. In addition any claims to North Sea Oil are far from clear-cut.
I weep for my country when Swedish MILFs are getting booted out.
It would take 18 months. Don't know if that's what you define as a hell of a long time.
I can only recommend again some things which might help against these racist-scum:
Build some taskforces and show them some reactions.. Its the only thing what might help. This wont change them but showing them that they got some opponents to deal with.
in sweden that's an ugly girl!
The main thing is that she hits what she is aiming for! Nazis and Racists in the crosshair.
i feel terrible and racist posting that. she'd be considered ugly in denmark as well. there i feel much better.
Well if you're being serious then I'm moving to Sweden tomorrow! (while I still can anyway...)
Ta!
The email:
I really expected you to hide some easter egg in there.
Or perhaps you did and it's just too subtle for me.
The UK markets really didn't suffer much at all. Today the FTSE 100 finished the highest its been since April. The FTSE 250 has dropped about 5% but is still higher than it was in February. The exchange rate isn't a good indicator of market sentiment about the overall health of the economy, but a 10% drop in the pounds value versus the dollar is hardly a tragedy; British exporters will be delighted.
When Britain sits down to negotiate a new trade deal with the EU, commonsense is likely to prevail. Some countries that don't trade much with Britain might lean towards punitive measures, but that certainly won't include Germany. German exports to Britain are worth $120B and one in five of their cars is sold there. I can't see Angela Merkel trying to explain to German workers that they must accept unemployment because her government wants to punish Britain for leaving the EU. German industry will want its access to the British market to remain as unfettered as possible. Likewise for Ireland: Britain is her second largest trading partner. The Netherlands exports $50B annually to the UK; are they going to vote to lose that?
Thats a question the Leavers should have asked themselfs before...
Q: How many Leave campaigners does it take to change a lightbulb?
A: They never said there was a lightbulb.
A: They never said there was a lightbulb.
I'm confident you underestimate Merkel's stance.
I hope you are right, and I agree Germany is likely to be pragmatic for the reasons you mention. The problem is all 27 need to agree to a deal. What's to stop Spain playing hardball over Gibraltar or Poland vetoing a deal on restricted freedom of movement rights (as it did apparently when Cameron tried to negotiate his pre-referendum concessions)?
Merkel has Germany to think about and she doesn't want any more countries in the EU with increased financial problems due to potential loss of trade with the UK, because that in itself will cost Germany money. Loss of trade, not to mention future loss of the UK's EU contributions, will also leave them scrabbling around for finance.
Don't forget either that both France and Germany have elections next year and both leaders are on shaky ground.
Who needs light when you have freedom.
Good point. I didn't realize everybody had to agree to everything. It would be the final irony if inability to agree on the terms of Britain's exit split the EU.
Genuinely thanks for your sympathy, it's very kind. Thing is though, I'm not all that fussed about my job. I'm well qualified, single, speak 2 languages fluently and another 4 badly, and am perfectly willing and able to move to France. Yes, I could well lose my half a flat that I worked very hard to buy with my mate from school, but ultimately, I'll eat.
What pisses me off is that other people at my firm, good people whom I respect and admire, might also lose their jobs. Many of them have families, can't move countries easily, need to keep up on the mortgage repayments etc etc.
And I'm 100% sure that mine isn't the only company in this position. It certainly won't be soon anyway. And for what? What benefit? To anyone. You said yourself, you voted leave because you think the EU hasn't done enough, not because it's done too much.
Other people voted leave because they're grumpy old nihilists who are afraid of a rapidly changing world they don't understand. So people told them it was the fault of foreigners. And yet immigration won't be going down and might well even go up, according to the very people whose views they voted for.
Still others voted to, essentially, protest against decades of terrible governance, austerity, war, privatisation on the cheap...and yet they've handed control straight to the people who want to do more of that and voted to take it away from an organisation that actually, in some spheres though certainly not all, does a lot to protect them from that.
It's absolute folly all round. Literally the only people in the whole world who seem happy about any of it (other than the ones who are about to get a rude awakening as to what they actually supported) are Rupert Murdoch and Nigel Farage. I couldn't want to slap those old feckers senseless more if I tried.
I agree to a large extent. There has to be commonsense on both sides. One German industry guru was saying last week before the vote that if the EU plays hardball then it could lead to job losses in both the UK and Germany. Similarly, whoever heads up the UK negotiating team will have to accept that access to the free market will almost certainly not involve a restriction on free movement of people. I know some people are scoffing at that and saying some leave voters didn't vote for that but that's irrelevant - the vote was a simple in or out option. There were no sub questions on the ballot paper and any so-called promises from the Leave campaign weren't necessarily promises - they were suggestions. How could they be promises when the leave campaign wasn't even a political party lol? Either way, I didn't take any of those infamous "promises" on board when making my decision - I've heard more about the so-called £350 million a week since the campaign than I did during it. If some Leave voters felt they were promises then that's their problem, not mine. In any case, there was a fair amount of skulduggery on both sides and I dare say some of the people that voted remain did so based on swallowing whatever the remain camp threw at them too or didn't put any thought into their decision at all. I know I wavered a bit when Osborne threatened us with his emergency budget (funny how he waited until just over week before the vote to throw that one out there - surely it can't have had anything to do with the fact that the opinion polls were showing a huge swing towards leave). The implication that each and every one of over 16 million people put hours and hours into researching things while each and every one of over 17 million didn't is way wide of the mark.
As for the markets, their showing over the past couple of days has been very positive but I'm exercising caution for the time being. There have been 2 days of big losses and 2 days of big gains but trying to predict how they'll perform over the longer term is akin to trying to predict who will win the Premier League after 2 games!
Yeah, I don't understand the triumphalism. My feelings were a mixture of trepidation and excitement. But there was no celebrating amongst leave voters in our workplace - just a good debate between leavers and remainers. One remainer said one of the key reasons he voted to stay in is because he has a second house in France and he didn't want a Brexit because he might see the amount of alcohol he's allowed to bring back into the country slashed! But if that's important to him then fair play. I've no issue with that and we all had a good laugh about it when he told us. A couple of mates voted to leave because they feel that the long-term future for their kids will be a better one.
However, as with all elections a percentage of the population really doesn't know what they're voting for so some people really will have been turkeys voting for Christmas. I don't know what anyone can do about that but I'd imagine that the politicians will have to try and reverse the increasing apathy that is coursing through much of the electorate. One idiot I know gloated about the win and said getting rid of Cameron was the reason why he voted out ffs!
Good to see the FTSE closed above above it's pre-referendum level today.
I know quite a few people who bought heavily after the initial panic. I'm regretting not doing the same
I know quite a few people who bought heavily after the initial panic. I'm regretting not doing the same
Changed it for you.
It doesn't really work like that anyway but you can flip it round and say that 27 have to agree to punitive measures against the UK. I have aleady heard a Danish MEP saying that Denmark wouldn't support punitive measures for a start.
In reality though the Brussels is awash with lobby groups for big business which throw billions at the EU between them for influence. Other major bodies of influence like the IMF and America have already said they want calmness and sense in the negotiations. A country like Romania, for example, will politely be reminded to do what is right for the 27, America and the world if they want to try and drill the UK into the ground.
The EU economy is on its arse regardless, they can't afford to discourage trade from the UK, which is the second largest economy in the club.
If we do actually leave and reject the EEA then I estimate that the EU will seek an agreement that is less beneficial that either of those 'in the club' statuses but that still makes trade with the EU worth pursuing. A compromise. Pragmatism.
If that is the case, which is the only way I can see it happening if we refuse to accept the free movement of people, then the UK will have to look to fill the deficit through trade with other countries. The US is already our most important trading partner anyway and an emerging superpower like India, with all the historical links, would be good avenues to pursue.
My main concern is politically and socially i.e. rise of the right in the UK, but if Labour can get rid of Corbyn I actually see this as a real opportunity for a credible progressive centre left party to rise again.
I still have not seen any basis for claims that in the long term we'll be better off. None at all. Every single potential reason I heard from the leave campaign was absolute bollocks.
On the contrary I see a lot of benefits from the EU - longest period of uninterrupted peace in Europe in centurie, (maybe millennia?), more or less constant economic growth, mostly good regulations, free movement, no trade tariffs...
This is absolutely crucial and something Leave have totally failed to acknowledge.
The UK will have a simple choice: Free market, free movement, and a hefty contribution to EU funds, or no free market.
Norway as well!
So some of the leave guys obviously believe that voting out gives you a carte blanche to act like massive racist twats and do whatever you want with anyone foreign looking. Good times ahead for what seems to be a no longer United Kingdom. What the feck is wrong with these barbarians, how thick is it possible to be and still be able to survive from day to day? I find this extremely worrying if the authorities don't manage to stop it fast. I guess if I was to speak Norwegian with my wife in the proximity of one of these guys they'd be all over me.
Once the UK realises it's going to get a shit deal compared to before. Any chance it could back out? Democracy has spoken but, it's as Boris has said not an overwhelming majority.
That's why the EU wont negotiate before we enact article 50. Most of Europe hates the deal that we have got the ability to pick and chose what agreements we enter(Schengen for example). Then they can say you're getting this put have to opt into this, this this and this to get it.
The reason that they hate it so much is because they would like to pick and choose too. That in itself
And the EU will have the choice of a free market with us or no market, thus losing billions of ponds of trade with us each year. Financially I don't think that they're going to be able to afford to kick us into touch. Most of the countries won't want to lose that trade, they need it. At the moment it's all posturing though. They need to be seen to be acting tough in case they lose any more countries. When push comes to shove I doubt they'll keep up the tough talk. It's not in anyone's interests and they know that.
It's not free market or no market, unlike this shit referendum there is a middle ground. Brits will still buy BMWs, even with a 10% duty imposed on them. Not so sure the Germans will be queuing up to buy whatever Ariel have knocked together in a shed. The financial sector will up sticks to Düsseldorf.