They might patch it up by accepting Turkey to fill in the gaps, but they have so much work to do there it will take at least another 7-8 years before that can happen. EURO took a huge hit as well, it's all related and it's lose lose for both parties. The UK will still have a strong hand in the upcoming negotiations.
Brexited | the worst threads live the longest
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I think they might being Turkey as well but I think that would be another in a long line of ill thought out moves from the the Eurozone. The social and political controversy it would cause in remaining member states (except Germany) would be massive for a start.
Turkey won't meet even half the criteria in 7-8 years.
Turkey will not be allowed to join the EU, and the Euro has gained 20% against the pound in the last 8 months
They need a huge economy to fill in the gaps. They've bailed out Portugal and Greece, while Italy/Spain might very well be on the cards in a near future. Losing the UK is a big kick in the teeth for them as well.
yeah as I said it's not a remote possibility they need a lot of time and effort there. Some of the chapters are frozen since 2006. They can meet half but 5-6 of them are way off. They can always not honor some of them as like what happened with the Maastricht treaty(some countries even never fulfilled that).
Exactly. There's so much to play out on this yet. Telling people that UK will just do as it's told is ignorant, arrogant, and naive. I think what we will see over the coming months is a more conciliatory tone from both the UK and the EU - it's not like Farage is going to be conducting negotiations
If it were only an economic question you might be right. However, given the prevailing politics in the EU nations at the moment, politically Brexit has to fail in some way. No way they'll give in on immigration or making us pay to access the single market. If they do the EU is dead. So you've essentially set it up so that both sides can make feck all compromise. Brilliant diplomacy that.
Which election are you talking about, the 2015 one?
feck up your country, feck off
bloke in the pub is a fact, probably the only one in this thread so go shit in yer hat and punch it
Cool down mate.You don't think there's a huge possibility here of Ireland and Germany (and possibly Scotland) seeing great opportunity in a Brexit and stripping England and Wales of their prize assets, thus "filling the gap"?
The euro might be failing many countries but it's working for Germany. Many companies would be more than OK moving there.
£ has been rising steadily all day, don't anticipate it to break this week's high of 1.348 however.
Well fukk me, there's so much fecking doom mongering and bullshit in here it defies belief. lots of posts have the term "I think" in which means they are just opinions not based on much.
It's an entirely irrelevant fact to the argument for leaving. It's only relevance is that other people in the EU also want to leave it which means the EU cannot allow us to succeed in leaving. Negotiations are therefore almost impossible as nobody can win.
And I hope you're still pleased with yourself when you or your mates lose their jobs and there's no adequate mental health services left in the country to keep you well.
Why would it be down to the EU to alleviate the employment situation for them? This is the mentality that leaves me bemused, on one hand you think the governments should run their own affairs, yet when they fail to do so over and over again, it magically becomes the EU's fault for not doing something they were never intended to do in the first place.
*Tips hat*
Not so sure about the British economy, but that's not my point. It's also not my point that the EU will "punish" Britain, that wouldn't be reasonable. But we will tell you, okay, you do want to have access to the common market. Agree on the terms of free movement.
That is reasonable for both parties and it will happen. Negotiating the details will be fiddly, but after all ist not the most hardcore brexiters who will be in power after Cameron and the more soft ones do know they can't keep their promises and will accept such a deal.
No it's not entirely what I based by vote on but at least you took the time out to read it - my point was that not everything coming from the leave side was lies and that there were other facets to the campaign too.
Re Norway - they're not shitting money as much as they were. It might've escaped your attention but 38,000 jobs in the oil and gas industry have been lost in Norway in the past few years and Norway is more heavily reliant on oil and gas than the UK. It's not the EU's fault that 38,000 jobs have been lost because it's down to circumstances beyond their control but the EU haven't done anything particularly pro-active in trying to alleviate the situation.
Much of everything else you state is just an opinion on how you think things will pan out - I respect that opinion but that's all it is. An opinion. No-one knows how it will turn out because there has been no previous precedent where a country has left the EU.
"We will just tell you what to do and you will do it." Is your name Jean-Claude Juncker?
Regarding the bold part, see above.
Regarding "opinion, not facts": most of that IS fact if you use basic economical knowledge. You can't shift imports because most of it is part of specialized supply chain import anyway, you can't just magically export more or just "shift" exports to other regions. This isn't communist Russia, this is a free market with companies doing rational choices. If that relation of Imports and Exports was rational before, it still is. Other options don't magically become cheaper. The ones in the EU might get more expensive, which is a bad thing for british economy.
Same for Toyota, they are acting rational. Moving a plant doesn't make sense from an economical point of view, building another, new one in a country with access to a bigger market with the same quality of labour and maybe even cheaper wages absolutely does.
Re:Re: Norway. 38.000 jobs isn't much, not even in Norway. They don't even need the oil that much mid term anyway, did you know the Norwegian state investment fond is the biggest in the world? It's basically the only European rentier state. And why the heck should the EU do anything about Norwegian jobs in the Oil industry? They are not actually in it, you know?
And seriously, I probably do know a lot more about that country than you imagine. After all, I have been there for a month every year for nearly 20 years now. My family owns a house over there.
Go away
They still have their jobs, why wouldn't they?
I still have my job, my house was in negative equity for 7 years and now isn't.
Does mental health care still exist in the uk?
Do you still have a job? Have you been told you will lose it because of the referendum?
You see, the bloke in the pub and the post about the indian guy yesterday are things that actually happened. You base your shit on things that might happen bases on newspapers i expect. Tell me what positive things you are going to do to get over this Armageddon?
If we lost the ability to reclaim European VAT, then my job would probably go to Italy.
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Actually my company already moved one of our factories to Romania a few weeks ago and we got a rather ominous email yesterday related to monitoring Brexit. It's not a definite but it's not unlikely by any means. And when recession hits, which it will, we won't be the only company doing this.
And no, I base it on every single expert prediction from a reputable source saying the economy will suffer tbf.
You know what I'm doing that's positive? I'm campaigning to stay in fecking Europe.
Good luck with that
We moved our manufacturing to Hungary ages ago, its cheaper, all companies do this
The uk does not make it attractive for companies to stay there, staying in europe wont change this
That does cheers mate.
Well i could be wrong but i think the 2010 GE had a higher turnout than the previous two. Lots of people were angry at the recession and blamed Labour. But even in that climate Cameron still had to form a coalition because he didn't have a majority. What does that tell us.
They did but when a party promises a nation where millions of people read the Daily Mail & the Sun a referendum to leave the EU. Don't be surprised when they win by a landslide.
If the popular opinion was with Cameron then most would have voted to remain in the EU, the truth is a lot of the people who voted to re-elect him didn't trust his judgement at all and voted to leave. Had he not made that referendum promise i doubt he would have been even re-elected in the first place.
Statistics aside my original point was Cameron has never had the people's trust in my opinion. And yet his decisions will have long lasting ramifications for many years after he is gone. We are out of the EU and the UK will break up in the near future i think. He made more radical and foolish decisions than the several previous PM's combined when he really had no business doing so.
I don't disagree with that, it's the failing of a national government when it happens, feck all to do with the EU. And there are feck all benefits to leaving, only problems. Such as people finding excuses to move all kinds of businesses out of the country...
But people have had enough of experts eh...
Nick Clegg promised an EU Ref too, but it didn't do him much favours.
I don't think many voted for the Tories based on the EU referendum promise, I don't think many even expected it to come to fruition. But I might be wrong too.
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Let me clarify. The EU, to their credit, has made attempts to try and save the British steel industry and that hasn't gone unnoticed by me (you see, I'm not one of those that thinks everything the EU does is bad). However, with the oil industry, there doesn't seem to have been the same effort made by the EU in terms of appealing - through OPEC - to the countries that are churning out too much (which is the main reason why the oil industry in Norway an the UK is on it's arse). Maybe it would be a fruitless exercise. Maybe they don't care quite as much for Norway as they're not in the EU but given that thousands of jobs in that industry have also been lost in the UK (particularly Aberdeen) and the UK was in the EU then I feel the EU's silence on the issue is a little odd especially as we're talking potentially about many more jobs being lost when compared to the steel industry.
What do you mean by odd?
Overreach. Or not reaching enough. Can't win.
IMO the EU let its steel industries suffer for years before doing anything. This is a failing of the EU but not a sufficient one to override the good it does. And there's certainly no evidence that the UK government would have done anything differently as they were even later to the party than the EU! And regarding oil, our government were constantly pandering to the Saudis so that we can sell them weapons, so taking no position is surely better than assuming a supine one?
If there was even 1% chance that the referendum would have happened and its not what the people wanted, they should have voted somewhere else. now theyhave to deal with it, such is life
The fisheries argument is the biggest joke of all, and the British fishermen by far the biggest hypocrites. I worry if the industry is left in charge of someone here. Each agricultural, farming and fisheries minister we have had in recent years has had absolutely no fecking clue what they are talking about, certainly not regarding the fishing industry anyway.
I mean this in all sincerity mate - I am sorry to hear about the uncertainty surrounding your job and hope that it works out ok for you. I can now understand why you're angry about the way the vote went. I must stress that while I voted out, I wasn't celebrating the result in any way, unlike when Labour won the election in 1997 where I was over the moon. That's because I know there are going to be plenty of rocky times ahead.
He did but the Lib Dems didn't have the voting base for it to make much of a difference.
Fair enough mate i disagree though. A lot of people didn't even think the Tories would get re-elected never mind win by a landslide.
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A significant portion of Conservative MPs wanted a referendum - some would probably have cleared off to UKIP without Dave's promise. Dave couldn't go back on his promise, Presume their was support for the (originally) rebel MPs in the Constituency Associations.
That the 52% is an informal alliance between Right Wing Tories & disenfranchised working class Lab voters (theoretically Lab voters) is erm... bonkers really. Also old people.
That the 52% is an informal alliance between Right Wing Tories & disenfranchised working class Lab voters (theoretically Lab voters) is erm... bonkers really. Also old people.
Yeah, my point was that the EU actually did more than the UK government regarding the steel industry. I don't see it all as black and white where the EU is concerned - like many on both sides I see pros and cons.
Have you popele ever honestly tried to unterstand the economics behind such things?
Regarding oil: Norway sin't in the EU. We can't sepak for them, we wohnt and we shouldn't. And even the countries in Opec can't convince the overproducing ones to reduce their output. By the way, what does overproducing mean anyway? The OPEC is basically the worst cartell that has ever existed. Everybody should be allowed to do as they please, that would be a free market. OPEC is a cartell to finance stupid rentier states and should be taken down.
But even beides that, all in all, low oil prices are good for the European economy. The beneficial factors of that far, far outwheight the benefits of the oil industry, even for Britain alone if you are honest. So no need to intervene.
Regarding steel: The EU couldn't do shit about that, nor could anyone. If we are taleng about basic steel production, not specialized one, we just can't compete with countries like China and we never will be. Let it go, do something new. Some wars you just can't win. And please don't tell me we could've imposed trade tolls. We don't even have the necessary natural resources in iron ore to satisfy our own needs. We are dependent on countries outside of the EU, so this was NEVER an option.
Have we seen the Teebs thing? Guardian contributor
My own opinion on this is that it probably really shouldn't have gone as far as a referendum. You're right that Cameron promised it to appease some of those in his own party (which kind of makes a mockery of Farage's comments yesterday when saying he was the one that brought about a referendum! But that's a different matter). However, he could've always reneged on that as it's not like a prime minister has ever kept to all their promises. He probably wasn't expecting the Tories to grab an overall majority though and that maybe made it harder to go back on.
Have we seen the Teebs thing? Guardian contributor
Yup. Be careful for what you wish for.
Are you not aware that oil output is far exceeding demand? That in turn has pushed the price down which in turn has made it harder for Norway and the UK to compete with the Middle East countries due to the higher costs of extracting it over here. It's easy for you to say that cheaper oil prices are better for the European economy but for those of us that work in the industry it isn't that simple. You sound like you don't give a shit that companies in Aberdeen and Norway are going bust every single day but I wonder if you'd be quite as flippant if you were one of those that could be affected. I haven't told Two Sheds to suck it up with his job due to Brexit makeing his situation more precarious - I wouldn't dream of it - so a bit more diplomacy wouldn't go amiss.
EU 27 agree 'no single market a la carte' for UK: Tusk & Spanish PM opposes EU talks with Scotland
What a mess.