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Do you think there will be a Deal or No Deal?


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The only thing missing from this now is the UK vetoing the UK's request for extension at the EU summit.
 

The gist of it seems to be "Give me an extension so I can get this deal, which was already rejected twice, through parliament. We'll stick in some yet to be named changes in order for it to pass.". Or am I reading it wrongly?
 
I think May's plan is to delay for long enough to have a new state opening of Parliament and then bring the deal back in a new session.

I mean, it's probably just to thrash about hoping to survive, but there's some logic to doing that.
 
See earlier posts.. Tony Blair to become the poster boy for Remain in any forthcoming second (or is it third) Referendum on membership of EU, (formerly known as EEC, Common Market, etc.)

Yes, it is appearing much more like this is the case, though I am uncertain how that will play out considering his reputation over Iraq. Is he the 'right' person for the job? Don't get me wrong the lads on the Leave camp are awful, but they can easily challenge his credentials and question his position.

What we need is someone in the current climate to step forward and campaign this. I think someone like David Lammy could (and should) well prove a prominent figure in this, but whether he will be afforded the air time or not remains to be seen. Everything I hear and see from him has been good thus far. I believe he speaks in a way in which most people can connect to and appreciate.
 
something I heard on brexitcast last night... might come into play if true...
Apparently shortening a long extension is pretty easy... but lengthening a short extension is going to be legally very difficult:

So basically 12th or 24th April is a date the Eu have in mind for when the UK must take legal steps to prepare for EU elections if they are to have them

If we dont hold them then at the time we come to try to extend we will have no MEP's and apparently therefore undetr EU rules not be able to extend... basically 30th June would instantly become deal or no deal hard deadline

therefore possible they may either only allow an extension till april saying the deal must be approved by then or the only further extension would be a long one... that said apparently some countries not keen to have uk involved in elections and having a bunch of Ukippers having a say over Eu plans so they are minded to prefer no deal over long extension.

I suspect there is a realistic chance that Mays plan for a 30th june extension may be the 4th option of the EU after (in no specific order) long extension, even shorter extension or no deal.

Does that make 29th March the soft deadline?
 
The gist of it seems to be "Give me an extension so I can get this deal, which was already rejected twice, through parliament. We'll stick in some yet to be named changes in order for it to pass.". Or am I reading it wrongly?

The tone of the letter is crap. Maybe she really wants them to say no. I think she might - she no doubt knows they either want an extension up to May or a longer extension. The letter seems to beg to get the big feck you response I think. It has no warmth, no mention of the importance of our future relationship, no apologies or thanks for their patience with us, no personality behind it... I could go on.
 


Hmm not sure if that's good or terrible for us. If it got rejected and parliament had the vote to accept a longer extension it would no doubt pass but will May even bring it for a vote?

Leavers like to grunt and say "it said leave not leave with a deal", if we follow that logic it didn't fecking say when did it
 
I think this either ends in No Deal or May gone and we revoke Article 50 and have another referendum.
 
Quite a lot of political hacks getting a little giddy on twitter about rumours of another May speach outside number 10 after she meets with opposition parties and the 1922 committee this evening. Seems like something's brewing.
 
Quite a lot of political hacks getting a little giddy on twitter about rumours of another May speach outside number 10 after she meets with opposition parties and the 1922 committee this evening. Seems like something's brewing.

So many false dawns that I wouldn't get my hopes up.

"I vow to fight on, my deal is the only deal" etc etc.
 
Yes, it is appearing much more like this is the case, though I am uncertain how that will play out considering his reputation over Iraq. Is he the 'right' person for the job? Don't get me wrong the lads on the Leave camp are awful, but they can easily challenge his credentials and question his position.

What we need is someone in the current climate to step forward and campaign this. I think someone like David Lammy could (and should) well prove a prominent figure in this, but whether he will be afforded the air time or not remains to be seen. Everything I hear and see from him has been good thus far. I believe he speaks in a way in which most people can connect to and appreciate.

Blair would be' toxic' for Remain. Lammy is not toxic but he is a 'marmite man', just as many people think he talks 'bollocks' as agree with his views.
Remain needs a proven Europhile, one of only a few MPs who voted against A50 in the first place and who has a history of supporting the UK membership of the EU and that's Ken Clarke. True he is a Tory, and in the minority in his party and he is getting on a bit, but he might just be able to talk to some of the so called ageing leavers?
 
If it's true that Macron doesn't want a pointless extension then surely that means there's a good chance that, inexplicably, she's going to get her deal through next week? Then the EU could agree to a short extension for the UK to sort things out.
 
If it's true that Macron doesn't want a pointless extension then surely that means there's a good chance that, inexplicably, she's going to get her deal through next week? Then the EU could agree to a short extension for the UK to sort things out.

To accomplish that would indeed be a modern day miracle. With a hard core of Leaver ERG on one side and another core of rigid Remain stalwarts on the other, both voting against (albeit for different reasons) May would need a substantial number of Labour MPs to cross the floor of the house (£1.6B bribes not withstanding) and vote for a deal they don't believe in... just can't see it happening.

It has to be no 'deal' or no Brexit, as it was on day one (23rd June) of this whole debacle!
 
To accomplish that would indeed be a modern day miracle. With a hard core of Leaver ERG on one side and another core of rigid Remain stalwarts on the other, both voting against (albeit for different reasons) May would need a substantial number of Labour MPs to cross the floor of the house (£1.6B bribes not withstanding) and vote for a deal they don't believe in... just can't see it happening.

It has to be no 'deal' or no Brexit, as it was on day one (23rd June) of this whole debacle!
You might be right, I just wonder if a lot of Labour MPs who have spoken about how disastrous no deal would be might be spooked to either voting for her deal or at least abstaining, it's not like Corbyn wants to remain or even have a second referendum so I can't see him actively whipping his MPs against the deal. You are right though that the numbers she needs to win over are massive and the ERG and DUP suddenly see no deal in sight.
 
Who has seen Donald Jnr's article in the Telegraph? I'd like to smash the cnut's face in.
 
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May's options are pretty limited by my thinking.

I don't think she'd even have the votes for a GE or a referendum. Genuinely think if May tried a GE without any good cause, enough Tory MPs would rebel and wouldn't get the 2/3 majority required. Corbyn can look like the saviour in that scenario as well. Refuse a GE, until Brexit is dealt with and brand May an irresponsible lunatic.

If she tries to go no deal, Corbyn will call a confidence motion and the government will certainly collapse. New "temporary" government will be able to be voted in within 14 days per FTP act, can then deal with Brexit. Just needs a majority of MPs from any party.

The deal can't be voted before September in new parliament session, unless "substantial changes" which May can't get.

Can't be an extension without a referendum or similar as Macron will veto it.

So what does that leave?
 
May's options are pretty limited by my thinking.

I don't think she'd even have the votes for a GE or a referendum. Genuinely think if May tried a GE without any good cause, enough Tory MPs would rebel and wouldn't get the 2/3 majority required. Corbyn can look like the saviour in that scenario as well. Refuse a GE, until Brexit is dealt with and brand May an irresponsible lunatic.

If she tries to go no deal, Corbyn will call a confidence motion and the government will certainly collapse. New "temporary" government will be able to be voted in within 14 days per FTP act, can then deal with Brexit. Just needs a majority of MPs from any party.

The deal can't be voted before September in new parliament session, unless "substantial changes" which May can't get.

Can't be an extension without a referendum or similar as Macron will veto it.

So what does that leave?

Not sure you get it. If the UK don't agree to the deal that's on offer, I.e. the one that they can't agree to because they can't debate it again, then there are only 2 choices. No deal, or no Brexit.

The fact that parliament passed a motion saying that they reject no deal is irrelevant if they then proceed to fail to agree to the deal.

I know a lot of posters on here from the UK are appalled by this so I don't like my own generalizing here, but fecking hell you folks need a look at your education system because you would appear to be a country of stupid fecking eejits, from day one of this whole shambles. Shocking.