Brexited | the worst threads live the longest

Do you think there will be a Deal or No Deal?

  • Total voters
    194
  • Poll closed .
Buster15 said:
Fine as long as it is not more time to just go round in circles.
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Unfortunately that is exactly what the EU will fear if the extension to Art 50 goes long!

It is beginning to look like there is no viable solution that suits either or both parties in this country, or indeed that suits the EU. Even a total withdrawal from Brexit may not suit the EU because they would have to put up with a recalcitrant, fractious, continuing in-fighting, troublesome member; the return of Farage and Co and a continuing drag on the 'closer union' objective... the only consolation would be the UK's monetary contribution would continue, big sigh of relief perhaps, but be careful what you wish for, still has some resonance here!
 
I heard a radio interview today with JRM. He says that he is now 'warming' to the possibility of delaying leaving the EU for a 'few months' because that would push the date that would trigger the Backstop beyond the end of this parliament.

That would infer that he will be voting in favour of the WA.
 
SqueakyWeasel said:
Did I just read that correctly? Macron refusing to allow delay or extension to BREXIT deadline?
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No he said he wouldn't object if the UK gave a clear idea where they wanted to go. He said the UK now has to make a definite choice.

But not if they were to continue going round in circles and he wouldn't be the only one who would object.

It's make your mind up time. And parliament can't agree on anything.
 
Paul the Wolf said:
No he said he wouldn't object if the UK gave a clear idea where they wanted to go. He said the UK now has to make a definite choice.

But not if they were to continue going round in circles and he wouldn't be the only one who would object.

It's make your mind up time. And parliament can't agree on anything.
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So basically he'd rather force something that's bad for everyone than risk BREXIT not happening - which is the likelihood given an extension?

EDIT: Maybe I've got this wrong. What is the "new choice" he's speaking about (out of interest)?
 
SqueakyWeasel said:
So basically he'd rather force something that's bad for everyone than risk BREXIT not happening - which is the likelihood given an extension?
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32 months since the referendum and no clue what the UK wants other than unicorns.

3 months since the withdrawal agreement was agreed and will not be changed.
Why would anyone believe the UK will stop bickering with itself to all eternity.
 
I assume Macron is signalling that May cannot keep wasting everyone’s time indefinitely by “renegotiating” a deal that the other side is not willing to negotiate.
 
Paul the Wolf said:
32 months since the referendum and no clue what the UK wants other than unicorns.

3 months since the withdrawal agreement was agreed and will not be changed.
Why would anyone believe the UK will stop bickering with itself to all eternity.
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Well obviously, you vote for unicorns, you get unicorns.

Do you not think there is a real worry about losing some of the new business France was looking forward to if BREXIT doesn't happen? Even just the slightest little bit?
 
SqueakyWeasel said:
So basically he'd rather force something that's bad for everyone than risk BREXIT not happening - which is the likelihood given an extension?

EDIT: Maybe I've got this wrong. What is the "new choice" he's speaking about (out of interest)?
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Choices means decisions in that context. Basically France are open to an extension if it's motivated by new decisions taken by the UK, otherwise the withdrawal agreement isn't renegotiable and France aren't favorable to an extension just for the sake of it.
 
JPRouve said:
Choices means decisions in that context. Basically France are open to an extension if it's motivated by new decisions taken by the UK, otherwise the withdrawal agreement isn't renegotiable and France aren't favorable to an extension just for the sake of it.
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Thank you
I'm glad that the agreed agreement is not negotiable. It was the one thing that has led me to believe that this will be put back to the people with a choice between remain and May's package (which will fail to get through). Is that good enough for an extension do you think?
 
SqueakyWeasel said:
Thank you
I'm glad that the agreed agreement is not negotiable. It was the one thing that has led me to believe that this will be put back to the people with a choice between remain and May's package (which will fail to get through). Is that good enough for an extension do you think?
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I don't know, I imagine that it would be a clear enough outcome. Also there is an important sentence, "we don't need time, we need decisions.".
 
horsechoker said:
What happens in the event of remaining beyond the European elections? We have to put up candidates right?
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Undetermined still but think that's likely especially if it's for a referendum. Senior EU figures were on about existing MEPs possibly staying on indefinitely
 
SqueakyWeasel said:
Well obviously, you vote for unicorns, you get unicorns.

Do you not think there is a real worry about losing some of the new business France was looking forward to if BREXIT doesn't happen? Even just the slightest little bit?
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If there was a realistic chance Brexit wouldn't happen or that May would scrap her Red lines and go for a BINO then they would be in favour. But there is no sign at the moment.
 
SqueakyWeasel said:
Did I just read that correctly? Macron refusing to allow delay or extension to BREXIT deadline?
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Yes hopefully, without a clear objective. France to the rescue? Force the UK to make a decision and vote it through parliament by the original date. That is the only sane thing to do.

I don't think JRM position has changed, just media Spin. If May can get a legally binding change to nullify the "backstop" and allow us to leave unilaterally or a fixed end date for it the ERG might vote for it. I can't see the agreement getting close to passing without a solid legally binding change to make sure the UK cannot be trapped in it forever.

I don't see now though why the EU would offer anything. My opinion is that the EU don't want the UK to leave. The EU now know for sure parliament won't allow no deal and there would be a delay (revoke / second ref?) instead. So why offer anything? Just do nothing, refuse an extension as France suggested and wait for the UK to fold.
 
Mb194dc said:
Yes hopefully, without a clear objective. France to the rescue? Force the UK to make a decision and vote it through parliament by the original date. That is the only sane thing to do.

I don't think JRM position has changed, just media Spin. If May can get a legally binding change to nullify the "backstop" and allow us to leave unilaterally or a fixed end date for it the ERG might vote for it. I can't see the agreement getting close to passing without a solid legally binding change to make sure the UK cannot be trapped in it forever.

I don't see now though why the EU would offer anything. My opinion is that the EU don't want the UK to leave. The EU now know for sure parliament won't allow no deal and there would be a delay (revoke / second ref?) instead. So why offer anything? Just do nothing, refuse an extension as France suggested and wait for the UK to fold.
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That's what I was hoping!

I was banking on them not allowing* Britain to crash out either as that benefits no-one.

If an extension (which has always been in offer) is taken off the table then it guarantees the worst possible scenario for all.

I've noticed that lots of German papers here have started rubbing their hands together and running pieces adding up the sums BREXIT may be worth to different EU countries in possible relocated business and new HQs being set up, money + jobs etc) and I was waiting for them to be the ones to suddenly decide that time's up, we're bored and we kinda want shot of you now!

*I totally agree that it is a wholly British problem made worse by weak and inept British politicians and an antiquated British political process. And the whole shambles should have highlighted to the people of Britain that it was not European politics failing them but their own politicians. However if there is a real appetite to want Britain to remain then once May's deal (the only deal, and unchangeable) is rejected by parliament they must allow time for it to be put to the people with remain on the ballot … surely!

EDIT: I don't know enough about this to be making statements. I hope it's clear I'm asking questions because it sounds like you guys are very well informed.
 
Paul the Wolf said:
No he said he wouldn't object if the UK gave a clear idea where they wanted to go. He said the UK now has to make a definite choice.

But not if they were to continue going round in circles and he wouldn't be the only one who would object.

It's make your mind up time. And parliament can't agree on anything.
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He is absolutely correct. My view entirely.
We have had enough time and are just running the clock down; a tactic that may ultimately work.

The Labour motion to set up a permanent customs union with the EU has just been rejected by the HoC.
That leaves the three basic options. Accept the WA, accept a no deal or allow a further referendum (so called peoples vote). Quite how the logistics of another vote would work, I have no idea.
I still sense that the WA will be carried if some suitable wording on the backstop can be added as an appendix to it.
 
Sweet Square said:

:lol:
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Labour will win more votes than it loses by backing another referendum

Again, great caution must be taken with hypothetical polls in such a fluid political context. But if I were Mann I would want some evidence that his Brexit policy would be more popular than a pro-remain stance. Not only does that evidence simply not exist; the data we have suggests precisely the opposite.
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https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/feb/27/labour-vote-referendum-jeremy-corbyn
 
berbatrick said:
The centrists have won, Corbyn needs to go. Inept and total misreading of the political situation. He was steady on 36-40% of the vote before the TIG and then this referendum rubbish which will bleed some more votes.
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Nah your freaking out a bit here. Corbyn was just following party policy, in the end he had to pick a second referendum or risky pissing off the most of the labour base, so he took a punt(although personally I think it was the wrong choice).

As for the centrists, people like the TIG will fade away within the year or they were to start a party(Which is far from certain)they'll fail
completely at whenever the next election is.
 
Buster15 said:
He is absolutely correct. My view entirely.
We have had enough time and are just running the clock down; a tactic that may ultimately work.

The Labour motion to set up a permanent customs union with the EU has just been rejected by the HoC.
That leaves the three basic options. Accept the WA, accept a no deal or allow a further referendum (so called peoples vote). Quite how the logistics of another vote would work, I have no idea.
I still sense that the WA will be carried if some suitable wording on the backstop can be added as an appendix to it.
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Yes it's running the clock down and the EU can see that.

Problem is the HoC will almost certainly vote against the WA as well, vote against no deal, vote against a 2nd referendum , in fact vote against everything but not vote for anything.
The backstop's not going to change otherwise it ceases to be a backstop.

Still can see only one outcome to all this.
 
Paul the Wolf said:
Yes it's running the clock down and the EU can see that.

Problem is the HoC will almost certainly vote against the WA as well, vote against no deal, vote against a 2nd referendum , in fact vote against everything but not vote for anything.
The backstop's not going to change otherwise it ceases to be a backstop.

Still can see only one outcome to all this.
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Anybody who seriously believes that keeping the no deal option on the table as a negotiation tactic is going to have any affect on the EU has to be crazy.
Even TM seems to have realised that now.
I really wish that the EU would come out and say no extension to the leaving date - just make your mind up.
That would focus MP'S attention on the three forthcoming votes.
I just hope that the default position of no deal gets defeated as I believe it will.
 
If you are for leave the only real reason you are against a new referendum is that you think it will deliver a different result.

If you were for remain you know leave could still occur but at least there would be a clear choice of how to leave now that the options are actually known.

Merely shouting "the will of the people" achieves nothing apart from possibly us leaving with no deal which is by far the worst of many shitty options.
 
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This man is the chief political correspondent for a major newspaper. It's incredible.

He's getting absolutely slaughtered in the replies.
 
Paul the Wolf said:
Problem is the HoC will almost certainly vote against the WA as well, vote against no deal, vote against a 2nd referendum , in fact vote against everything but not vote for anything.
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And round in circles we will keep on going.

The WA doesn't work nor suit anyone on either side - maybe a tactic to try and unite people from both camps to compromise, but I don't think May has the capacity to think like that.
No Deal would be a disaster and will surely never get enough support, and could only happen if EU pull the plug on talks, and we have no WA in place.
Peoples Vote - huge questions surrounding it, it can only be a Remain or Leave vote, but then we need to know what the Leave option entails, and most importantly there MUST be an informed discussion on it, and not everyone lobbing shite in the hope it sticks.
 
Paul the Wolf said:
Yes it's running the clock down and the EU can see that.

Problem is the HoC will almost certainly vote against the WA as well, vote against no deal, vote against a 2nd referendum , in fact vote against everything but not vote for anything.
The backstop's not going to change otherwise it ceases to be a backstop.

Still can see only one outcome to all this.
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Beginning to think you are right! Default position will stand. Even if May decided to withdraw Art 50 (and cancel Brexit) its debateable whether all 27 EU would agree. Those who have been eying what business etc they could 'hoover-up' if the UK leaves, might be tempted to refuse. Pandora's box has been opened... regrettably it looks like a No Deal outcome.
 
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