So let’s say the house vote to take no deal off the table and then the EU refuse an extension. Doesn’t that legally only leave the option of revoking Article 50?
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And that is from a Brit living in Germany I have no Idea what I need to do with regards to papers to live and work here as no one knows and being honest what is the point of an extension when the same dross will be on the table. From day one of posting Article 50 all parties should have been working together to sort the best possible deal but no they are more interested in themselves and getting one up on the other one/ each other.
Or accept the withdrawal agreement as it is.
Wait so there's a scenario where May's deal can get voted down. No Deal can get voted down & extending the date can get voted down as well? Surely then the only option is to either go to a people's vote or cancel the whole thing?
All of my money is in Canada at the moment so I'd prefer it to go the other way personally. If it drops to 1.11/1.10 again I might send some back. Transferwise offer pretty good margins for smaller transfers.
Agreed.
She has always quite correctly maintained two things.
We have accepted the will of the people to leave the EU.
We will leave on March 29th.
I cannot see any merit in extending the date as we have had two years to get to where we now are.
I cannot see any merit in a so called peoples vote. It is fraught with danger and confusion. Of the two available options, I am now totally in favour of the agreed WA. Not perfect and not ideal but it is the only sensible option and it gives us a position on which to move forward during the transition without the ridiculously high risk cliff edge scenario.
I don't think Sterling will stay in the current range (1.10-1.20) after a final decision is made.
If it is a no deal it will go the other way , way below 1.10.
Does the common vote on No Deal legally stop it from happening or is it just advisory? If it legally stops no deal then surely Article 50 would be void, if it's an illegal measure to leave without a deal then the UK cannot leave without a deal on March 29. If it's advisory then Article 50 is still in effect which means No Deal is on the table.
I might be misinterpreting the situation so feel free to correct me.
The only way that a new referendum could work would be if lets say 75% was needed for whatever wins and lets say remain wins then the leavers start wanting another referendum, the UK should simply bugger off as all will be well the Blitz spirit, Vera Lynn and the White Cliffs of Dover.
The first one didn't have a quota (but should have) and neither should a second one.
What were you against in the WA that you're now willing to stomach?
If it wants to fall below 1-1 that’s fine, I have to regularly send euros back to the UK.
Other than recanting on Art 50 completely and cancelling Brexit, how can "No Deal" be taken off the table, surely the time frame doesn't allow for it the legislation already passed on this issue, to be undone?
True. I meant that it would be off for the 29th March because once that was the case then they'd have to apply to the EU to have A50 extended. It doesn't remove the prospect of no-deal permanently.
If it wants to fall below 1-1 that’s fine, I have to regularly send euros back to the UK.
I still think it will be no deal in the end, so you should be quids in , as they say.
Have you sorted out your Carte de Séjour or are you applying for french citizenship?
Oh, sorry I thought that by including the specific date in the legislation it meant that on the 29th May at 11.00pm we leave the EU, with or without a deal, unless we withdraw Art 50 altogether.
Simply delaying the outcome of the withdrawal negotiating process triggered by Article 50, did not effect the official withdrawal date, it only pushed back a date for the negotiations to be concluded and as you've said it doesn't remove the prospect of a no deal permanently.
I thought that's what all the fuss about crashing out was all about and why there was a move to take out the date from the specific legislation?
So, you think you have it all figured out, then you realise you don't... guess I'm not on my own in that!
As @Adisa mentioned, No deal is still the default outcome if nothing else is agreed.
Even if parliament votes to say it doesnt want No Deal, it remains possible until someone actively delays Brexit or rescinds Art50
Government summary of a no deal Brexit published today:
https://assets.publishing.service.g..._Trade_of_a_No_Deal_Exit_on_29_March_2019.pdf
https://assets.publishing.service.g..._Trade_of_a_No_Deal_Exit_on_29_March_2019.pdf
As bad as No Deal will be I'm reading Twitter and getting a very strong indication that if there was another referendum between Remain and No Deal, No Deal would win.
I think we're stuck with leaving the EU now regardless of what happens.
I think we're stuck with leaving the EU now regardless of what happens.
The British people deserve a no deal and all its consequences if that happens
Well, that's just idiocy. I hope Twitter is not representative.
Thankfully its looking like we won't have no deal as an option on any referendum, which is just common sense.
Are you talking about any polling here or just remarking on commentators? I'd be shocked if no deal won considering remain vs a deal is very 50/50 itself.
Still waiting for my Carte de Séjour interview..
I'm reading comments mostly on different Tweets from major news outlets such as BBC, Sky News & Channel 4 News.
I genuinely think Leave would win. People really are that stupid.
If there's a No Deal v Remain referendum and No Deal wins, the British people deserve all the chaos that will happen.
On a news magazine programme here in France today (C'est dans l'air on FR5 for french viewers) - they were taking questions on Brexit - someone asked the panel - is it true that the British are stockpiling food and medicine.
One of the panellists said yes because the Uk imports most of their food but said they won't starve because if necessary they could eat porridge for breakfast, lunch and dinner.
One of the panellists said yes because the Uk imports most of their food but said they won't starve because if necessary they could eat porridge for breakfast, lunch and dinner.
Roughly:
Tories 45%, simple majority approaching 350 seats, picking up Labour Leave seats and some London seats.
Labour 32%.
Seats comparable to the Ed Miliband 2015 result.
TIG 12%
A few London seats.
LD 5%
Their strongest seats only.
100%. You only get so many outs before it becomes clear that you're determined to piledrive your country into the ground.
I was, like many others and the majority of MPS concerned about the Irish Backstop.
It is still a concern. However, as I mentioned it is nothing like as much of a concern as leaving without some form of WA.
In summary, nothing about Brexit is good news for the UK and on that basis we need to take a pragmatic decision.
How about you. What is your view?
Really. What makes you think that when there are so many MP's totally against this?
Yes, some appear dim but I don't believe the majority are that stupid.
I thought you told me before that nobody in France was even talking about Brexit.
Nothing wrong with porridge though. It is very good for you and some people could do with loosing some weight.
Good to hear that some French people find it so amusing....
I said very little - they do find it amusing though. Ils sont fous, ces anglais.
Even if they had the guts to stop it, which I don't think they have, how are they going to stop it? It's a runaway train with a lunatic driving it.
The DUP’s leader and deputy leader, Arlene Foster and Nigel Dodds, met the prime minister this afternoon in her House of Commons office. Afterwards, Foster said:
We support a sensible deal and a managed exit from the European Union. Parliament has mandated the prime minister to seek a replacement of the backstop. At that time, the prime minister committed to seek legally binding changes to the withdrawal agreement. This position commanded a clear majority in parliament. Mrs May should deliver on those commitments.
Experience in Northern Ireland has shown that extending deadlines does nothing to encourage a deal.
A no-deal outcome can be avoided and it can be agreed long before 29 March. The European Union have it in their hands to avoid such an outcome. They know exactly what is required to achieve a deal which parliament can support.
It’s time for Dublin and Brussels to be in a deal-making mode.
Just as well they don't read the government summary of no deal Brexit for Northern Ireland:
"In a no-deal scenario there is an expectation of disruption to closely interwoven supply chains and increasing costs that would affect the viability of many businesses across Northern Ireland. There is a risk that businesses in Northern Ireland will not have sufficient time to prepare. This could result in business failure, and/or relocation to Ireland with knock-on consequences for the Northern Ireland economy and unemployment. Northern Ireland is particularly vulnerable given its high proportion of, and reliance upon SMEs (75% of all private sector employment) and the number of businesses who trade directly with Ireland (Northern Ireland’s largest international export market). The agri-food sector is a disproportionately large part of Northern Ireland’s economy and located predominantly in border/rural areas. It is particularly vulnerable given its reliance on cross-border supply chains in the production stage and in finished products."
But why should they care?
We support a sensible deal and a managed exit from the European Union. Parliament has mandated the prime minister to seek a replacement of the backstop. At that time, the prime minister committed to seek legally binding changes to the withdrawal agreement. This position commanded a clear majority in parliament. Mrs May should deliver on those commitments.
Experience in Northern Ireland has shown that extending deadlines does nothing to encourage a deal.
A no-deal outcome can be avoided and it can be agreed long before 29 March. The European Union have it in their hands to avoid such an outcome. They know exactly what is required to achieve a deal which parliament can support.
It’s time for Dublin and Brussels to be in a deal-making mode.
Just as well they don't read the government summary of no deal Brexit for Northern Ireland:
"In a no-deal scenario there is an expectation of disruption to closely interwoven supply chains and increasing costs that would affect the viability of many businesses across Northern Ireland. There is a risk that businesses in Northern Ireland will not have sufficient time to prepare. This could result in business failure, and/or relocation to Ireland with knock-on consequences for the Northern Ireland economy and unemployment. Northern Ireland is particularly vulnerable given its high proportion of, and reliance upon SMEs (75% of all private sector employment) and the number of businesses who trade directly with Ireland (Northern Ireland’s largest international export market). The agri-food sector is a disproportionately large part of Northern Ireland’s economy and located predominantly in border/rural areas. It is particularly vulnerable given its reliance on cross-border supply chains in the production stage and in finished products."
But why should they care?
The French are mostly laughing their tits off at us. Are you really surprised? Would the Brits not be if the French were staring down the face of self-imposed food shortages and chaos?
Not only the French the Germans as well, folks at work just shake their heads all agree change is needed in the EU but dont understand why the UK wants out.
Don't agree. Preventing a no deal exit from the EU has nothing to do with guts, or the lack of it.
It has everything to do with logic and from what I see and read, there are very few MP'S advocating this option.
I may well be wrong (not for the first time) but that is my view, especially now Mrs May has opened the option of a vote to extend the leaving date.
I am not sure that the EU are that enamoured with a no deal either so I am hopeful that common sense will prevail.
How interesting that you talk about Germans colleagues agreeing change is needed in the EU.
What is it about the EU that they feel needs to be changed?
Lots of MPs are determined to stop a no deal. That’s why there’s so much pressure on May right now.