Brexited | the worst threads live the longest

Do you think there will be a Deal or No Deal?

  • Total voters
    194
  • Poll closed .
Raulduke said:
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could happen
they would I assume vote with the government on the 3 amendments
a... would make no deal much harder to achieve so they wont support that
i... again makes no deal more unlikley so they wont support that
e... will show the economic assessment of no deal so they wont support that

so if they then abstain on the official government motion that makes some sense as it basically endorses not only seking amendments to the withderawal agreement (which they want and is in line with the last commons vote) but also endorses ruling out no deal (which they dont want even though its in line with the last commons vote)

basically nothing would pass - might backfire though and make it clear to may the only way her deal gets through is to soften brexit to get labour votes then jump in April / May before she gets pushed by the ERG
 
https://www.theguardian.com/politic...-talks-with-barnier-and-verhofstadt-next-week

Jeremy Corbyn is set to hold talks in Brussels next week with Michel Barnier, the EU’s chief negotiator, as he seeks to break the Brexit impasse and persuade Theresa May to sign up to a customs union.

During a whistle-stop tour of the central figures in the Brexit talks, the Labour leader is also due to meet the European parliament’s Brexit coordinator, Guy Verhofstadt, EU sources have disclosed.
He is expected by officials in Brussels to offer further detail on his recent conditional offer of support for the prime minister’s deal, and to provide an update on the cross-party talks.
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Paul the Wolf said:
Which countries in the EU will be hammered , bearing in mind Ireland will clearly be the biggest sufferers by far of no deal apart from the UK and what do you mean by the blink from the EU, what are you expecting them to do?
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Ireland, plus any EU country that has a significant share of its exports to the UK, in some cases it may be in one sector only, in others it may be across different sectors, but they like the UK itself will take a hit from a no deal scenario... at least according to all the experts!

The 'blinking' contest (preliminary rounds) start today in the commons, will the ERG fail to back the government motion that includes for ruling out no deal? If they do will May then be able to say its their fault, i.e. "the ERG have weakened my position, and we cannot get any further movement from the EU on the backstop, therefore I'm calling off Brexit" (still in my opinion the most likely choice for her) and she will promptly resign.

By falling on her sword(for the good of the country) May's martyrdom ensures the next leader of the Tories will march to General Election victory on the back of it!

If however the ERG do support the Government today, then the EU will be the next contestant for May in her 'Blinking fest', will they believe May can pull it off, will they continue to support Ireland, or indeed will Ireland pull out itself (by agreeing to some local deal with the DUP/Brits) or will Ireland (and parts of the EU) join the UK in going to hell in a handcart... sorry, I mean a no deal outcome?
 
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Maticmaker said:
Ireland, plus any EU country that has a significant share of its exports to the UK, in some cases it may be in one sector only, in others it may be across different sectors, but they like the UK itself will take a hit from a no deal scenario... at least according to all the experts!

The 'blinking' contest (preliminary rounds) start today in the commons, will the ERG back the government motion that includes for ruling out no deal? If they do will May then be able to say its their fault, i.e. "the ERG have weakened my position, and we cannot get any further movement from the EU on the backstop, therefore I'm calling off Brexit" (still in my opinion the most likely choice for her) and she will promptly resign.

By falling on her sword(for the good of the country) May's martyrdom ensures the next leader of the Tories will march to General Election victory on the back of it!

If however the ERG do support the Government today, then the EU will be the next contestant for May in her 'Blinking fest', will they believe May can pull it off, will they continue to support Ireland, or indeed will Ireland pull out itself (by agreeing to some local deal with the DUP/Brits) or will Ireland (and parts of the EU) join the UK in going to hell in a handcart... sorry, I mean a no deal outcome?
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But trade will still continue after a no deal. The biggest effect of no deal is not that trade will stop it just becomes more difficult and more expensive.

The prime effect of no deal is that frictionless trade will stop - I think the focus is in the wrong area. The rest of the EU still has frictionless trade between the member states, the UK would have no frictionless trade at all. This is the killer.

The EU will support Ireland and will not change the 4 freedoms so don't see how they can blink.
Nothing will change on the WA or the backstop, the only thing that can change is the political declaration where the UK change it's mind and head towards staying in the CU. But there are too many factions in the Uk parliament for there to be a consensus on anything including cancelling Brexit.
 
Paul the Wolf said:
The EU will support Ireland and will not change the 4 freedoms so don't see how they can blink.
Nothing will change on the WA or the backstop, the only thing that can change is the political declaration where the UK change it's mind and head towards staying in the CU. But there are too many factions in the Uk parliament for there to be a consensus on anything including cancelling Brexit.
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I think the only way the EU moves its position is if Ireland request it

If Ireland believe a no deal brexit would be more damaging than a time limit for example (lets say for arguments sake with a 12 month notice period to allow preparations for switching to a no deal scenario) the EU may agree to that as it wouldnt impact the 4 freedoms etc

Of course there is a logic that the UK agreed the backstop - and therefore should honour that but if Ireland asked for it then perhaps they would?

That said I dont think Ireland will agree anything that in their eyes could change the good friday agreement so in reality I cant see them asking the EU for a change - but if we are literally days from the return of a hard border in Ireland then who knows it may be seen as the less shitty end of the stick
 
by the way... i assume Gibraltar is going to have to go to a hard border - and what about the people who travel over that each day for work - its genuinely getting very little press at the moment but can the customs officials there actually deal with 20,000 extra checks a day? - especially as the vast majority of these will happen in a very congested time around work start and finish hours?

I mean even if half the checks fall in a 2 hour period in the morning and afternoon thats 2500 checks per hour

even a cursory glance at a passport and calling through the next person is probably 1 minute so one person could perhaps process 50 or 60 an hour

which would indicate they need to have around 50 extra customs officers working... and thats assuming they actually have the infrastructure (desks, queue facilities etc) to do that... and Id guess that simply the criminal record checks let alone the training period for a customs official takes longer than the remaining few weeks till brexit
 
Siorac said:
Exact same thing happened with the far-right Jobbik in Hungary a few years back, when they were still vocally anti-EU. They tried to burn the flag and failed for the same reason.
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They stopped? There seems to be a trend here, when these groups get a little bit of exposure they bury that side.
 
Honest John said:
I'm not a brexiteer. I wanted to stay in. But I'm getting a little cheesed off with the almost total attitude in this thread that the EU has nothing to answer for.
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Thing is, you keep hinting at some sort structural defects being present in the EU, something that should make the EU leaders take a long and hard look at themselves at this time. That they should consider that these defects led the UK away.

The reality, however, is that the UK never ever fully accepted freedom of movement and always wanted more and more concessions and as little integration as possible. That goes directly against what the EU is about.

Sure, the EU could change its entire purpose and reason for existence. Because really, that seems to be the only way to convince the British. But frankly, and I can't stress this enough: the UK is not THAT important. It would be preferable if they also bought into the idea of the EU. But you don't and seemingly never will.
 
JPRouve said:
They stopped? There seems to be a trend here, when these groups get a little bit of exposure they bury that side.
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Yes, these radical groups tend to realise that there is a glass ceiling for them, that fringe ideologies are unlikely to gain significant power unless there is a major upheaval. So they either stick to their message, keep their core and fail to rise above a certain level - or they try to "mellow" a bit, to attract people from the centre. Jobbik tried what we here called a "cuteness campaign" but they can't seem to break that glass ceiling.
 
Siorac said:
Thing is, you keep hinting at some sort structural defects being present in the EU, something that should make the EU leaders take a long and hard look at themselves at this time. That they should consider that these defects led the UK away.

The reality, however, is that the UK never ever fully accepted freedom of movement and always wanted more and more concessions and as little integration as possible. That goes directly against what the EU is about.

Sure, the EU could change its entire purpose and reason for existence. Because really, that seems to be the only way to convince the British. But frankly, and I can't stress this enough: the UK is not THAT important. It would be preferable if they also bought into the idea of the EU. But you don't and seemingly never will.
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What was wrong with the Common Market?
 
Honest John said:
What was wrong with the Common Market?
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Nothing was "wrong" with it but further integration was the logical next step in an increasingly global economy.

Frankly, the question itself is another great indicator of why the UK is simply not a good fit for the project.
 
sun_tzu said:
by the way... i assume Gibraltar is going to have to go to a hard border - and what about the people who travel over that each day for work - its genuinely getting very little press at the moment but can the customs officials there actually deal with 20,000 extra checks a day? - especially as the vast majority of these will happen in a very congested time around work start and finish hours?

I mean even if half the checks fall in a 2 hour period in the morning and afternoon thats 2500 checks per hour

even a cursory glance at a passport and calling through the next person is probably 1 minute so one person could perhaps process 50 or 60 an hour

which would indicate they need to have around 50 extra customs officers working... and thats assuming they actually have the infrastructure (desks, queue facilities etc) to do that... and Id guess that simply the criminal record checks let alone the training period for a customs official takes longer than the remaining few weeks till brexit
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At regular periods over the last 40 to 50 years Spain has for one reason of another closed or restricted passage over the border to Gibraltar... usually just to demonstrate they could! I was there in the mid 80's when one of these periods occurred but everyone seemed to get across the border relatively easily, it was only when the officials (from either side) showed up did it become 'congested', other wise the border patrols/guards seemed very relaxed and at that period there were more crossing than at the moment. Yes, it will be a problem but I would think much less of a problem than in Ireland?
 
Honest John said:
There are many that were happy to join/remain in the Common Market. In 1975 the referendum delivered a resounding 67% majority for staying in.
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We cannot go backward to the CM. The world and Europe has moved on and what was the 6 is now the 27.

However. It was the potential for further development of the EU possibly leading to further integration and the threat of a Federal Europe that caused concern in the UK.
 
Honest John said:
There are many that were happy to join/remain in the Common Market. In 1975 the referendum delivered a resounding 67% majority for staying in.
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You realize that in 1965 the EEC was merged with Euratom and the ECSC, that a single commission and councils were created. You joined something that was already defined the way it currently is, you joined communities.
 
Buster15 said:
We cannot go backward to the CM. The world and Europe has moved on and what was the 6 is now the 27.

However. It was the potential for further development of the EU possibly leading to further integration and the threat of a Federal Europe that caused concern in the UK.
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That is the direction of travel and regardless of what some on here say about their particular county having sovereignty and the ability to run it's own affairs, eventually those countries will become like the states in the US. All will be secondary to Federal law. That's fine if you want that.
 
Paul the Wolf said:
But trade will still continue after a no deal. The biggest effect of no deal is not that trade will stop it just becomes more difficult and more expensive.

The prime effect of no deal is that frictionless trade will stop - I think the focus is in the wrong area. The rest of the EU still has frictionless trade between the member states, the UK would have no frictionless trade at all. This is the killer.

The EU will support Ireland and will not change the 4 freedoms so don't see how they can blink.
Nothing will change on the WA or the backstop, the only thing that can change is the political declaration where the UK change it's mind and head towards staying in the CU. But there are too many factions in the Uk parliament for there to be a consensus on anything including cancelling Brexit.
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You are correct trade will continue and changes will be made by customers/suppliers to adapt to the new market conditions. You are also correct in citing the problems for the larger/multi-national companies, that the loss of frictionless trade will be the big problem and if companies do intend to relocate to get around it, then its possible some of that relocation could be from the EU to the UK, although I accept most will go the other way!

The fact is nobody knows, except for some immediate dislocations, just how things will work out in the longer term. Change is always frowned upon, worried about etc. even by those who may ultimately benefit from it. As with any period of rapid change, the fittest will survive the weak go to the wall. The fact that for many it will be seen to be self-induced is what makes it worse. The heart felt plea from many remain voters seems to be " my future is being decided for me, against my will, when do I get my say"? Which is probably precisely what Leavers were thinking in 2016?

The only way the EU will change course over Ireland, is if Ireland says so!
 
JPRouve said:
You realize that in 1965 the EEC was merged with Euratom and the ECSC, that a single commission and councils were created. You joined something that was already defined the way it currently is, you joined communities.
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Whatever. It was perceived here as a trading arrangement and sold as one worth shafting the Aussies, Kiwis etc. for.
 
Honest John said:
Whatever. It was perceived here as a trading arrangement and sold as one worth shafting the Aussies, Kiwis etc. for.
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And that great icon of the left, Tony Benn warned against it, "once you are in for any length of time you will find it difficult if not impossible to get out" he said. Wonder if JC ponders on this these days?
 
Honest John said:
That is the direction of travel and regardless of what some on here say about their particular county having sovereignty and the ability to run it's own affairs, eventually those countries will become like the states in the US. All will be secondary to Federal law. That's fine if you want that.
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From an Irish perspective we already are. America calls the shots, we do our best to work in the environment they've created. Us having any leeway on the matter is due entirely to being members of the EU and its existence. Your kind of in the same boat whether you realise it or not. You have more influence (or you had more influence) but you'll be dancing to americas tune the same as the rest of us.
 
Honest John said:
That is the direction of travel and regardless of what some on here say about their particular county having sovereignty and the ability to run it's own affairs, eventually those countries will become like the states in the US. All will be secondary to Federal law. That's fine if you want that.
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I do want that eventually. Nation states are cancer.

Important qualifier though: there are many things that I don't want to import from the US.
 
Honest John said:
That is the direction of travel and regardless of what some on here say about their particular county having sovereignty and the ability to run it's own affairs, eventually those countries will become like the states in the US. All will be secondary to Federal law. That's fine if you want that.
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That will only happen if we allow it to, and there will always be an exit route (even if it's hard). Besides, the issue of Federal Europe is not one that was at the forefront of anyone's mind in 2016 -- back then it was all about freedom of movement, the threat of Turkey joining the EU, etc. and is being used now as a convenient excuse to continue now the myths around immigration (and Turkey's entry) have been largely dispelled. It would be prudent for us to remain apart from this vision as long as possible, but removing ourselves entirely from the union would be an extreme reaction to one of many possible futures.

The bigger issue, and the one that nobody really talks about, is that Brexit ultimately came about because our poorest and most deprived areas have basically had enough. They've been told that after we leave the EU everything will be better for them because it's the EU that's oppressing them, and it's easier to look outward than look inward and accept that we just might have brought it on ourselves. We've seen a rise in homelessness, foodbank usage and poverty in general, yet we remain one of the biggest economies in the world. There's entirely no reason why that should be the case and no amount of tightening our border controls or relaxing standards will change it. We need widespread social, economic and political reform and none of those can happen while we're cleaning up the mess of exiting the EU. Life is only going to get harder for the poorest in our country, yet they're the ones who voted for it. They're the ones calling for us to crash out with no deal, because they're being sold a lie by people who won't suffer regardless of how it turns out.
 
Maticmaker said:
You are correct trade will continue and changes will be made by customers/suppliers to adapt to the new market conditions. You are also correct in citing the problems for the larger/multi-national companies, that the loss of frictionless trade will be the big problem and if companies do intend to relocate to get around it, then its possible some of that relocation could be from the EU to the UK, although I accept most will go the other way!

The fact is nobody knows, except for some immediate dislocations, just how things will work out in the longer term. Change is always frowned upon, worried about etc. even by those who may ultimately benefit from it. As with any period of rapid change, the fittest will survive the weak go to the wall. The fact that for many it will be seen to be self-induced is what makes it worse. The heart felt plea from many remain voters seems to be " my future is being decided for me, against my will, when do I get my say"? Which is probably precisely what Leavers were thinking in 2016?

The only way the EU will change course over Ireland, is if Ireland says so!
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It's not just the multi-nationals, it's a large part of the economy that depends on frictionless trade. Delays in Dover or other ports will affect everyone in the UK to some degree.
The cost and time not being in the SM/CU will also be a major factor.

Change is one thing but going back in time in a progressing world is not feasible.
 
Three amendments, one withdrawn and two defeated.

Another pointless day in the HoC.

And then we have:
Labour has more or less called for article 50 to be extended anyway - at PMQs last week, standing in for Jeremy Corbyn, the shadow foreign secretary Emily Thornberry said “the sensible, cautious thing to do at this late stage is to seek a temporary extension of article 50 so that we have time to see whether the negotiations succeed”

Which negotiations would they be then?

Back on planet Earth.....
 
Honest John said:
Whatever. It was perceived here as a trading arrangement and sold as one worth shafting the Aussies, Kiwis etc. for.
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How can you say whatever. You joined an institution created for political reasons, almost 20 years after its creation, and for some reason you criticize its purpose and its political nature, it's like entering a chocolate store and complain about the fact that they sell chocolate.
 
I found the motion from May weird, as it wouldn't have changed anything even if it had been passed, unless I'm missing something.

It's a pity Ken Clarke's amendment wasn't chosen, I thought he spoke well today. The only way parliament can find a majority is to limit the choices, a single transferable vote would do that. The same could be put to a second referendum if preferred.
 
It's weird that people still think no deal is unlikely.
 
Lots of speculation on twitter that Chuka Umunna set to resign the Labour whip tonight.
 
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