SARS CoV-2 coronavirus / Covid-19 (No tin foil hat silliness please)

Dude, every time I see your name in this thread it's more doomsday stuff. I'm not for a moment saying this situation isn't dangerous - I spent 7 years working for a microbiology firm, we carried out assays for genetic and infectious diseases and I remember the panic surrounding bird flu and later, Swine Flu - one of the red top tabloids printing a headline saying 500k WILL DIE in the United Kingdom.

Now while there's no denying Coronavirus presents a potentially far more serious and dangerous prospect than those two scenarios, you're not looking at it in a balanced fashion - and the last thing we need right now is panic, panic never helps anybody. Only a calm and rational approach to the problem brings progress. Repeating the same worst case stuff might start to lead people to believe you're relishing being the bearer of bad news.

Yes there are some young and otherwise healthy people affected, but if any reasonable person looks at the data, it becomes overwhelmingly apparent that such cases are - at present - in the absolute minority.

There was a tweet from one doctor in Italy with an anecdotal evidence of a spike in younger people presenting at the ICU. Note: One doctor, anecdotal - not solid, established metrics. If it turns out to be a trend, we'll react accordingly, but for now, the evidence remains unchanged: Most of the victims are elderly, prior ill, or immunocompromised.

And I've not read one single person arguing against that, including myself.

What I (and others) have stated is that it isn't *just* old or prior ill people getting wrecked by this - as if it matters anyway.

If my posts disagree with you that strongly, just press ignore mate.
 
Only 143 new cases of corona in China, that's positive news and a good indication of how to fight it. Italy is probably where China was a month ago. Other European countries are in the infancy stage of the virus, Italy is at adulthood approaching middle age and China is coming up for retirement.
 
The news segment said it's the men that were affected by the hiv epidemic.

Ah I see, I've misunderstood. Somehow I also naturally presumed it was divided evenly between men and women which doesn't really make sense anyway. According to the little bit I've just read about it, it seems that HIV in South Africa is more prevalent among females than men though.

Surely that can't be right? That's insane.

Also, if that's correct, I wonder what the percentage of those 1 in 5 are black vs white...

Just quoting from Wikipedia:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/HIV/AIDS_in_South_Africa

"A 2008 study revealed that HIV/AIDS infection in South Africa was distinctly divided along racial lines: 13.6% of Black Africans in South Africa are HIV-positive, whereas only 0.3% of Whites living in South Africa have the disease."
 
True. I've got my lawnmower ready and am just gonna do it.

Yesterday I went to buy gasoline for it with a jerry can and was afraid I'd get dirty looks for hoarding from the gas station employee. It was an unwarranted fear
Stop reading about it for a while, Arruda. This is a huge problem now but all things pass. We're just going day to day here, we know the virus is everywhere in Italy but you have to go on with your life, whilst being sensible and taking the measures the experts are recommending. x
 
Could you please stop fear mongering, without any concrete proof of the nonsense you make up. Some anecdotal evidence from a couple of doctors does not allow you to make these ridiculous statements.

You’re always going to get this if you’re looking for updates on a forum, or any kind of social media hub in fairness.

It functions the same way as gossip, only the barer gets to claim they’re doing it in the public interest. Which doesn’t mean they don’t genuinely feel it’s important, or they’re wilfully doom mongering in the same cynical way the tabloids are... just that the desire in human beings to spread “big and important” information, is strong... dumb, but strong.

The ones that really annoy me are during active terrorist incidents, where certain posters seem almost giddy about reporting hysterical conjecture (usually about extra shooters and higher death tolls) which to me serves absolutely no purpose other than to panic, or be the person to report the panic... with this there is at least an on going situation and quite a lot of information to digest. People are still spreading shit, naturally, but they’re at least thinking somewhat about it. Terrorist attacks are literally just a clusterfeck of people trying to be the first to say something, and the badder the better...
 
You’re always going to get this if you’re looking for updates on a forum, or any kind of social media hub in fairness.

It functions the same way as gossip, only the barer gets to claim they’re doing it in the public interest. Which doesn’t mean they don’t genuinely feel it’s important, or they’re wilfully doom mongering in the same cynical way the tabloids are... just that the desire in human beings to spread “big and important” information, is strong... dumb, but strong.

The ones that really annoy me are during active terrorist incidents, where certain posters seem almost giddy about reporting hysterical conjecture (usually about extra shooters and higher death tolls) which to me serves absolutely no purpose other than to panic, or be the person to report the panic... with this there is at least an on going situation and quite a lot of information to digest. People are still spreading shit, naturally, but they’re at least thinking somewhat about it. Terrorist attacks are literally just a clusterfeck of people trying to be the first to say something, and the badder the better...

The obvious difference here that the “sure it’s only a bad flu” camp are spreading actively dangerous propaganda. It’s in everyone’s interest that everyone in Europe is fecking TERRIFIED about this damn thing. Because the alternative involved people getting blasé about handwashing or turning up at work with a recently acquired dry cough.

The Chinese government and people did a fecking outstanding job at keeping the lid on this. They did this by spending a shit load of money and by being absolutely scrupulous about all the advice on minimising spread. If we can’t come close to matching their efforts then we’re screwed. The number of cases is doubling every day and 1 in 5 confirmed diagnoses ends up in hospital, 1 in 10 in intensive care, hooked up to a ventilator. This is, obviously, unsustainable.
 
the west will not take the drastic measures needed to stop this and it will hit us harder then it did china

 
He ran a marathon, he is not an actual professional marathon runner. He is also patient 1 in Italy so may well have been exposed to a very high dose of the virus and was ill for quite some time before doctors realised what was actually wrong with him and started treating him for it.
Is that a thing? Surely it makes no difference
 
Yes, but again, in China, the death rate among people diagnosed after February 1st is 0.7%, and in South Korea the death rate has been stable at 0.6%. Unless you believe that Asians have a special resistance to the virus, it's fair to assume that this number is closer to the actual death rate than the 3-4-5% you see in areas with spotty testing.

This doesn't mean people should take it lightly, but hopefully some of those freaking out the most might calm down a bit with that knowledge.
 
The obvious difference here that the “sure it’s only a bad flu” camp are spreading actively dangerous propaganda. It’s in everyone’s interest that everyone in Europe is fecking TERRIFIED about this damn thing. Because the alternative involved people getting blasé about handwashing or turning up at work with a recently acquired dry cough.

The Chinese government and people did a fecking outstanding job at keeping the lid on this. They did this by spending a shit load of money and by being absolutely scrupulous about all the advice on minimising spread. If we can’t come close to matching their efforts then we’re screwed. The number of cases is doubling every day and 1 in 5 confirmed diagnoses ends up in hospital, 1 in 10 in intensive care, hooked up to a ventilator. This is, obviously, unsustainable.

I don’t disagree... but then, again, don’t be getting your updates and info on major crisis from a forum!

There’s a healthy middle way though... that can encourage people to confidently err on the safe side without causing widespread panic!... the macro version of a bedside manner, perhaps?

Though if anything - and sadly quite pathetically - this thread probably has a much more aggressive and healthily pessimistic attitude than the UK Government does.
 
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Is that a thing? Surely it makes no difference

It's been shown in studies that a higher first dose of a virus is connected to a quicker detection of a viral load. It makes sense really that a higher initial dose can propagate itself through the body more quickly. I have no idea if that's the case with this virus but it's been speculated to be part of the reason why so many of the first patients died, and why doctors are getting it particularly badly.
 
France is about 20% over 65, UK 18-19%. I don't think 1% explains Italy's situation.

Might be more down to a group of tourists with a particular high strain, could've hit any large European country just as bad perhaps with lifestyle or geography of cities not helping thereafter. France and Italy are top destinations.
 
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France is about 20% over 65, UK 18-19%. I don't think 1% explains Italy's situation.

Might be more down to a group of tourists with a particular high strain, could've hit any large European country just as bad perhaps with lifestyle or geography of cities not helping thereafter. France and Italy are top destinations.

The deaths didn't start racking up in Italy until the second week. Europe only properly got going this week. Let's wait and see what happens over the coming days before we make that claim.


After all, whatever strain came to Italy is the one that's currently working it's way around Europe.
 
I don’t disagree... but then, again, don’t be getting your updates and info on major crisis from a forum!

There’s a healthy middle way though... that can encourage people to confidently err on the safe side without causing widespread panic!... the macro version of a bedside manner, perhaps?

Though if anything - and sadly quite pathetically - this thread probably has a much more aggressive and healthily pessimistic attitude than the UK Government does.

Exactly! And not just the UK government. The geniuses running our country just gave the go-ahead to St P’s Day festivities. Tens of thousands of tourists thronging the streets and crammed into every pub and club in Dublin. What could possibly go wrong?!?

As you know, I rarely miss a chance to put the boot into social media, conspiracy theories and people acting hysterical in general but this time I’m firmly alongside the tinfoil hat wearing gang, telling everyone that the government isn’t taking their fears seriously enough. If social media causes people to be overly worried about this then that’s a price I’m willing to pay. The cost and consequences of people not turning up at events which are likely to be crowded and unnecessarily stock-piling bog roll and hand sanitisers are completely insignificant compared to the frankly apocalyptic consequences of this virus hitting the same sort of incidence rates as an influenza epidemic.

And all the evidence points towards this being more contagious than flu, which is compounded by the absence of vaccines and immunity from prior exposure that prevent hundreds of thousands of flu infections each year.
 
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So since those two cases were announced in my area the local Asda had the following things out of stock;

Ibuprofen, chicken soup (just chicken, had loads of the other types), pot noodles, vaseline, powdered baby food and chocolate Barney Bears.

I think I live in a town with idiots.
 
So since those two cases were announced in my area the local Asda had the following things out of stock;

Ibuprofen, chicken soup (just chicken, had loads of the other types), pot noodles, vaseline, powdered baby food and chocolate Barney Bears.

I think I live in a town with idiots.
Dare I ask what that's for :nervous:
 
Quite old. Saw a Paul Graham tweet which also had an incredible stat -- Nigeria's median age is 20 vs Europe's 42.



Italy has the second highest percentage of over 65's, after Japan, and the third highest average age amongst major nations. They are also far more socially active than most and smoke like chimneys, especially when they were younger.

Italy also has about 50 times more cases than the rest of Europe and is a couple of weeks further into the outbreak, there is a lag in death rates.

Ah okay cheers. Now Italy's data makes sense.
 
And considering how many people in other countries are getting it from coming back from Italy, they are probably only scratching the surface of actual cases.
 
So we had a meeting in work today where they mentioned the hospital is forming a dedicated Covid team and they’re looking for volunteers to handle this specifically, whenever it comes up, as long as it’s contained to isolated cases and doesn’t explode.

Needless to say there were no volunteers:lol:
 
So we had a meeting in work today where they mentioned the hospital is forming a dedicated Covid team and they’re looking for volunteers to handle this specifically, whenever it comes up, as long as it’s contained to isolated cases and doesn’t explode.

Needless to say there were no volunteers:lol:
What do you have to lose? (other than your life)
 
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The geniuses running our country just gave the go-ahead to St P’s Day festivities

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“I'm pleased and happy to repeat the news that we have, in fact, discovered a cure for the virus that supposedly caused thousands of deaths worldwide. But, as you see, it's a beautiful day, the parade is on, and people are having a wonderful time.”
 
I'm really not digging this whole "we'll close the schools after the first confirmed case" thing. Have you seen what happens when one kid gets a cold in a school? Everyone gets it within three seconds because kids are manky.
 
Heard indirectly from someone in China, near Macau (very far from Wuhan). Not sure about a physical lockdown, but you have to take permission to go out of the apartment complex, and no children are playing outside the house. Shops open, most other things closed.
 
How effective do you think some of the precautions are, i.e. face masks, goggles?
I work on a construction site and was going to invest in some air tight goggles and a breathable balaclava/face mask whilst on site. In addition to the obvious washing hands, hand sanitiser, not touching the face, are goggles/mask reasonable protection against these kind of viruses?