SARS CoV-2 coronavirus / Covid-19 (No tin foil hat silliness please)

So the TTC (subway) here in Toronto just announced that someone who tested positive for Covid-19 used the subway on Monday, Tuesday & Wednesday this week. If that's during rush hour they could've spread it to several other people too.

I take that subway every morning & evening and did on all of those days...still the chances of being in the same carriage are slim.
 
Halftrack said:
That's from confirmed cases. Given that people have gotten it simply from having a lay-over in Milano, I'm certain the real number of infected is several times higher than the reported figures.

As I mentioned earlier as well, the death rate in China in people diagnosed after February 1st is 0.7%, and the death rate in South Korea has been pretty steady at 0.6%.

706 infected, 6 dead I believe, so just shy of 1%.
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In Italy the virus is doing a very good job of working its way through the elderly population, all of whom love to be outside drinking coffee, chatting etc. It's not just deaths, for some reason it isn't showing up in younger people as much.

The cases in my town are 62, 69, 73, 73, 84, and 89 years old.
 
11101 said:
In Italy the virus is doing a very good job of working its way through the elderly population, all of whom love to be outside drinking coffee, chatting etc. It's not just deaths, for some reason it isn't showing up in younger people as much.
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From what I've heard, they're focusing testing on people with more serious symptoms, so the young people are probably under-represented in the testing sample.
 
Adamsk7 said:
Just came back from Asda. As I was filling my basket with good, wholesome foods like oily fish, kale, broccoli etc everyone was literally stuffing trollies of Loo roll, fish fingers and pasta. The frozen section was bare and yet the delicious and vitamin C rich organic oranges and peppers that I bought were full to the brim! I think people may have their priorities skewed somewhat!

I don’t get how people can’t see A) they don’t need to stockpile and B) they should be doing all they can by maintaining a nutritious, balanced diet, supplement regimen and getting plenty of cardio and sleep. I know that’s no guarantee of anything but staying healthy and washing your hands are your best chance other than moving to a deserted island!
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When you don’t make a lot of money, and you need the food budget to stretch, pasta and fish fingers are cheap, avocados aren’t.
 
zing said:
What was the death rate on that cruise ship? That seems to be the only 'cohort' data anyone's had. Everything else seems biased in some direction in the denominator.
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Still to be established. Current figures are: 696 infected | 478 active | 34 serious/critical | 6 dead | 212 recovered
 
How old is the general Italian population? The rest of Europe is having 1 or 2 deaths a day and here they are with 40+ deaths a day! Even South Korea and Iran aren't that bad!

BTW if anybody likes to geek out like me on this subject (because I love disease epidemiology), this is a great website: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#repro
 
Ekkie Thump said:
Still to be established. Current figures are: 696 infected | 478 active | 34 serious/critical | 6 dead | 212 recovered
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Those numbers ended up being quite acceptable. 700 of the 3000+ people is around 20% which shows that limited movement is the best form of containment.
 
Cascarino said:
When you don’t make a lot of money, and you need the food budget to stretch, pasta and fish fingers are cheap, avocados aren’t.
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Trouble is whether it’s fish fingers or advocado’s its only the folks with money that can afford to stockpile. The poor live day to day. Stockpiling of whatever type affects the lower income group disproportionately.:confused:
 
Cascarino said:
When you don’t make a lot of money, and you need the food budget to stretch, pasta and fish fingers are cheap, avocados aren’t.
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Also if they are thinking that they may have to self quarantine for several weeks, “fresh” stuff is going to go off quicker
 
Klopper76 said:
So the TTC (subway) here in Toronto just announced that someone who tested positive for Covid-19 used the subway on Monday, Tuesday & Wednesday this week. If that's during rush hour they could've spread it to several other people too.

I take that subway every morning & evening and did on all of those days...still the chances of being in the same carriage are slim.
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With those new trains does it really matter?
 
Henrik Larsson said:
Yeah I wasn't aware of those numbers either and I was quite surprised to read that. Apparently 19% of all people in South Africa in the age group 15-49 have HIV - did the segment explain why the men would be more at risk than females for the coronavirus?
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The news segment said it's the men that were affected by the hiv epidemic.
 
Tell ya what, there’s some awfully thick people on my Facebook with comments such as “132 an
Adamsk7 said:
Just came back from Asda. As I was filling my basket with good, wholesome foods like oily fish, kale, broccoli etc everyone was literally stuffing trollies of Loo roll, fish fingers and pasta. The frozen section was bare and yet the delicious and vitamin C rich organic oranges and peppers that I bought were full to the brim! I think people may have their priorities skewed somewhat!

I don’t get how people can’t see A) they don’t need to stockpile and B) they should be doing all they can by maintaining a nutritious, balanced diet, supplement regimen and getting plenty of cardio and sleep. I know that’s no guarantee of anything but staying healthy and washing your hands are your best chance other than moving to a deserted island!
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Is your question basically:

why are the people who are worried about isolating themselves for weeks buying long lasting produce?
 
Ekkie Thump said:
Still to be established. Current figures are: 696 infected | 478 active | 34 serious/critical | 6 dead | 212 recovered
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That is pretty horrid. I know the death rate is low but the serious/critical cases would presumably have some lasting effects, and that's 5% of the population with the outcome TBD on 70%.
 
Just had an email from Fulham training ground in Malden that our Monday night adult (seniors) fitness evenings are cancelled. No reason given. Looks like football clubs are beginning the lock down.
 
Adamsk7 said:
Thought someone might play that card! Honestly if you know where to look, eating healthy isn’t that much more expensive. I make my own granola for breakfast and it works out at about 26p a bowl.
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Eating healthily is more often than not cheaper. You can buy loads of veg for the cost of a few prepacked things.
 
Halftrack said:
That's from confirmed cases. Given that people have gotten it simply from having a lay-over in Milano, I'm certain the real number of infected is several times higher than the reported figures.

As I mentioned earlier as well, the death rate in China in people diagnosed after February 1st is 0.7%, and the death rate in South Korea has been pretty steady at 0.6%.

706 infected, 6 dead I believe, so just shy of 1%.
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WHO Says The Coronavirus Global Death Rate Is 3.4%, Higher Than Earlier Figures
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https://www.sciencealert.com/covid-19-s-death-rate-is-higher-than-thought-but-it-should-drop
 
spiriticon said:
How old is the general Italian population? The rest of Europe is having 1 or 2 deaths a day and here they are with 40+ deaths a day! Even South Korea and Iran aren't that bad!

BTW if anybody likes to geek out like me on this subject (because I love disease epidemiology), this is a great website: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#repro
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Italy has the second highest percentage of over 65's, after Japan, and the third highest average age amongst major nations. They are also far more socially active than most and smoke like chimneys, especially when they were younger.

Italy also has about 50 times more cases than the rest of Europe and is a couple of weeks further into the outbreak, there is a lag in death rates.
 
spiriticon said:
How old is the general Italian population? The rest of Europe is having 1 or 2 deaths a day and here they are with 40+ deaths a day! Even South Korea and Iran aren't that bad!

BTW if anybody likes to geek out like me on this subject (because I love disease epidemiology), this is a great website: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#repro
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Quite old. Saw a Paul Graham tweet which also had an incredible stat -- Nigeria's median age is 20 vs Europe's 42.


 
Wednesday at Stoke said:
I watched a BBC segment on youtube that said 1 in 5 South African men under 50 have AIDS and they are the highest risk for this virus. I really couldn't believe those numbers. :eek:
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Surely that can't be right? That's insane.

Also, if that's correct, I wonder what the percentage of those 1 in 5 are black vs white...
 
Fully Fledged said:
https://www.sciencealert.com/covid-19-s-death-rate-is-higher-than-thought-but-it-should-drop
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On that 3.4% figure:

What is the mortality rate of the new coronavirus?

It is probably about or a bit less than 1%. Much higher figures have been flying about, but the chief medical officer, Chris Whitty, is one of those who believes it will prove to be 1% or lower. The World Health Organization’s director general, Dr Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, talked of 3.4%, but his figure was calculated by dividing the number of deaths by the number of officially confirmed cases. We know there are many more mild cases that do not get to hospital and are not being counted, which would bring the mortality rate significantly down.

Deaths are highest in the elderly, with very low rates among younger people, although medical staff who treat patients and get exposed to a lot of virus are thought to be more at risk. But even among the over-80s, 90% will recover.
 
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VintageWhatnots said:
Eating healthily is more often than not cheaper. You can buy loads of veg for the cost of a few prepacked things.
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Thank you! I often buy reduced fruit and veg if I’m eating that day or go to farms and get stuff stupidly cheap - I bought a 2KG bag of wonky veg from the local farm for £1:10p. It’ll do me and the Mrs for dinners all week, if not longer.
 
stepic said:
On that 3.4% figure:

What is the mortality rate of the new coronavirus?
What is the mortality rate of the new coronavirus?

It is probably about or a bit less than 1%. Much higher figures have been flying about, but the chief medical officer, Chris Whitty, is one of those who believes it will prove to be 1% or lower. The World Health Organization’s director general, Dr Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, talked of 3.4%, but his figure was calculated by dividing the number of deaths by the number of officially confirmed cases. We know there are many more mild cases that do not get to hospital and are not being counted, which would bring the mortality rate significantly down.

Deaths are highest in the elderly, with very low rates among younger people, although medical staff who treat patients and get exposed to a lot of virus are thought to be more at risk. But even among the over-80s, 90% will recover.
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One of the potential problems is that due to how fast it is spreading, if it overloads hospital systems, that will drive mortality rates up simply because people get locked out of medical access.
 
You'd almost expect the UKs mortality rate to be lower as they'll be a greater share of the elderly/vulnerable isolating themselves and prepared hopefully.

These early figures probably won't be too representative though as it'll initially spread quicker through younger crowds.
 
Adamsk7 said:
Thank you! I often buy reduced fruit and veg if I’m eating that day or go to farms and get stuff stupidly cheap - I bought a 2KG bag of wonky veg from the local farm for £1:10p. It’ll do me and the Mrs for dinners all week, if not longer.
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how many of the poorest in society do you think have the means to get to their local farms?
 
Wumminator said:
how many of the poorest in society do you think have the means to get to their local farms?
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Yeah, many people could save a ton of money if they could buy in bulk but to do that you need a car. When you don't have a car you spend more time going shopping and you're limited on where you can go.
 
Conor said:
Could you please stop fear mongering, without any concrete proof of the nonsense you make up. Some anecdotal evidence from a couple of doctors does not allow you to make these ridiculous statements.
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It's not fear mongering, it's genuine concern based on reality.

There's a 36 year old marathon runner in Intensive Care in Italy, been there for a week. This guy is also an amateur footballer.

This virus has killed many Doctors and Healthcare workers in their 40s and 50s - these people are very unlikely to be smokers and / or obese.

I understand that these are troubling facts, but lashing out at people doesn't change them.
 
Wumminator said:
how many of the poorest in society do you think have the means to get to their local farms?
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It’s not just farms that do wonky veg for cheap - Morrison’s, Asda and Aldi have started doing it too. Also how many are actually bothered to see if they have a local farm? All of these apparently poor people filling full trollies are getting to Tesco, don’t see how that’s any different? As previously said, a pack of 20 fish fingers doesn’t go as far and costs more than a lot of fruit and veg. It’s a complete myth that frozen food is cheaper. it also costs more in electric or gas to cook!

Anyway totally didn’t intend for this to be a food derailment, just an observation from my local (empty) supermarket
 
Rhyme Animal said:
It's not fear mongering, it's genuine concern based on reality.

There's a 36 year old marathon runner in Intensive Care in Italy, been there for a week. This guy is also an amateur footballer.

This virus has killed many Doctors and Healthcare workers in their 40s and 50s - these people are very unlikely to be smokers and / or obese.

I understand that these are troubling facts, but lashing out at people doesn't change them.
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I don't know about the case of the marathon runner, but the others have significant extenuating circumstances, they're in constant contact with the virus.

Generally speaking younger people aren't coming to any harm by catching it on the tube or wherever.

It will be interesting to hear the story behind the marathon runner though of course.
 
Virgil said:
Trouble is whether it’s fish fingers or advocado’s its only the folks with money that can afford to stockpile. The poor live day to day. Stockpiling of whatever type affects the lower income group disproportionately.:confused:
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I think you’re mistaken about the day to day thing. Do that and you’re screwed, whereas if you’re used to living poor you know exactly what to buy to last the month. If you’re poor and struggling, there’s a good chance your cupboards have plenty of cheap noodles in them. Agree about the stockpiling point.
golden_blunder said:
Also if they are thinking that they may have to self quarantine for several weeks, “fresh” stuff is going to go off quicker
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Good point,
VintageWhatnots said:
Carrots and potatoes are though, so are parsnips, bananas and apples.
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Carrots and potatoes are good on a budget, apples are good for you but not great for a budget, especially when you haven’t got the means to make trips to the store easily.
 
Rhyme Animal said:
It's not fear mongering, it's genuine concern based on reality.

There's a 36 year old marathon runner in Intensive Care in Italy, been there for a week. This guy is also an amateur footballer.

This virus has killed many Doctors and Healthcare workers in their 40s and 50s - these people are very unlikely to be smokers and / or obese.

I understand that these are troubling facts, but lashing out at people doesn't change them.
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Dude, every time I see your name in this thread it's more doomsday stuff. I'm not for a moment saying this situation isn't dangerous - I spent 7 years working for a microbiology firm, we carried out assays for genetic and infectious diseases and I remember the panic surrounding bird flu and later, Swine Flu - one of the red top tabloids printing a headline saying 500k WILL DIE in the United Kingdom.

Now while there's no denying Coronavirus presents a potentially far more serious and dangerous prospect than those two scenarios, you're not looking at it in a balanced fashion - and the last thing we need right now is panic, panic never helps anybody. Only a calm and rational approach to the problem brings progress. Repeating the same worst case stuff might start to lead people to believe you're relishing being the bearer of bad news.

Yes there are some young and otherwise healthy people affected, but if any reasonable person looks at the data, it becomes overwhelmingly apparent that such cases are - at present - in the absolute minority.

There was a tweet from one doctor in Italy with an anecdotal evidence of a spike in younger people presenting at the ICU. Note: One doctor, anecdotal - not solid, established metrics. If it turns out to be a trend, we'll react accordingly, but for now, the evidence remains unchanged: Most of the victims are elderly, prior ill, or immunocompromised.
 
Klopper76 said:
Oh I'm sure they'll still find a way to have delays regularly. Now they'll probably use this virus as an excuse.

Haven't seen many people in masks so far.
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A colleague just mentioned they never have the new trains (the single carriage ones) on line one, so that's a bit of a relief.

But if there's one guy there are probably more, if bit then definitely now.

Seems we got our first case with travel ties to Italy now, too.
 
VintageWhatnots said:
I don't know about the case of the marathon runner, but the others have significant extenuating circumstances, they're in constant contact with the virus.

Generally speaking younger people aren't coming to any harm by catching it on the tube or wherever.

It will be interesting to hear the story behind the marathon runner though of course.
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Until they go home and kill their parents and grand parents.
 
VintageWhatnots said:
I don't know about the case of the marathon runner, but the others have significant extenuating circumstances, they're in constant contact with the virus.

Generally speaking younger people aren't coming to any harm by catching it on the tube or wherever.

It will be interesting to hear the story behind the marathon runner though of course.
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He ran a marathon, he is not an actual professional marathon runner. He is also patient 1 in Italy so may well have been exposed to a very high dose of the virus and was ill for quite some time before doctors realised what was actually wrong with him and started treating him for it.
 
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