SARS CoV-2 coronavirus / Covid-19 (No tin foil hat silliness please)

[decorativeed]

So from patient to medic to medic's son to medic's son's classmate to decorativeed.

Are you worried?

More confused. I don't understand why the chain stops with one family member. We've seen whole schools closed because of a single parent being diagnosed.

 

[van der star]

Italy with another 800 cases today.

Average age of death is 81. Government said all over 60 but one news report said there was a 55 year old with a serious illness. All very old/ill either way.

96% in hospital in Lombardy, up from 50% a few days ago, but i think (not certain) its because they've made the military hospitals available and are sending everybody there so they don't infect others. @van der star could confirm that, hes a doctor in a badly hit area i think.

I'm currently in quarantine and preparing my thesis defense as I'm graduating next week(6 and a half years of busting my arse to end up with a Skype graduation), I've barely had any contact with the outside world over the last few days.

 

[Revan]

Why do people keep saying it’s a flu?

A bit of blame should be on the people who came with the name. It should have been called from the beginning SARS-2 (now it is officially called SARS-CoV-2), in order to scare people more. Probably governments would have taken more measures if it was called SARS from the beginning, instead of half-arsed attempts pretty much every country bar China (since January) and Korea took.

 

[Dancfc]

I don't think everyone came into contact with an infected person. I think until late January the number of infected people was fairly small (graphs look almost like a straight line). Also that majority of people are asymptotic hasn't proven true in China apparently. It's perhaps true for the first 48 hours. Truly asymptotic people make up less than 2% apparently. The Milan scenario, not sure now, but I believe if you were a tourist or a business person the chances would have been far higher because of your behaviour.

If someone went shopping and caught public transport reguarly it would have been next to certain they would have come close to it at some point whether that was by an infected person or droplets on a surface/door handle.

My hypothetical Milan scenario would be if I just went there for the night, straight to the hotel kept myself to myself and left the next day.

 

[Steerpike]

yeah there’s quite a bit of helpful information that I think they should know by now, such as how long does it stay on what sort of surfaces and exactly the questions you raised too. I’m hearing all sorts online such as 9 days/two weeks on metal to 15 minutes on anything! So weird. It’s not like knowing those things would freak the public out, they are already taking worst case speculation as gospel!

The virus will survive for a few hours at most on a hard surface - correction: survive is the wrong word, as viruses are not actually living organisms, but deposits of a virus may remain infectious for 24 hours on hard surfaces, much less on porous surfaces (e.g tissues or handkerchiefs). Picking it up from a surface is one way it can spread, but it's much less likely than inhaling it as a result of being in close contact with someone else who is infected.

 

[kidbob]

I'm currently in quarantine and preparing my thesis defense as I'm graduating next week(6 and a half years of busting my arse to end up with a Skype graduation), I've barely had any contact with the outside world over the last few days.

Ah shit mate, I feel awful for you. But as someone who has done a thesis before, I know it sucks but you should be proud of yourself regardless. Wishing you all the best with your health and thesis!

 

[V.O.]

I think a case like this sums up the current hysteria: BBC. This bloke has had death threats against himself and his family because he has what amounts to a mild cold.

How fecking mental would everybody be going if it was plastered all over the news every time a poor old bugger in their 80s with pre-existing health conditions and a dodgy immune system was finished off by the flu? During a few months last winter, the flu killed 34,000 people in the US alone. Did anyone give a feck? No, because it's not new and scary.

 

[Steerpike]

I don't think everyone came into contact with an infected person. I think until late January the number of infected people was fairly small (graphs look almost like a straight line). Also that majority of people are asymptotic hasn't proven true in China apparently. It's perhaps true for the first 48 hours. Truly asymptotic people make up less than 2% apparently. The Milan scenario, not sure now, but I believe if you were a tourist or a business person the chances would have been far higher because of your behaviour.

True asymptomatic, or even mildly symptomatic, people probably never get diagnosed, especially in the early stages of an outbreak where the awareness of the virus is low to non-existent. If you'd suffered what seemed like a mild cold during the winter, would you have contacted the medical services to see whether it was something else? Even now, with the heightened awareness we have, a lot of people will contract the virus without ever realising it.

Global travel dramatically increases the opportunity for new viruses to spread, but the behaviour of tourists doesn't place them at a higher risk of infection than the local population (indeed, for covid-19, the risk to tourists is likely to be less).

 

[Skills]

Has there been any further news on the root cause of the infection? It was first thought, that it started in a chinese food market - has that been confirmed now?

Leading on, if that is actually the case - should this lead onto food and hygiene standards being globally regulated? With how well connected the entire world is, poor hygiene/food/safety standards can put the citizens across the world at risk - not just within a given country.

 

[Skills]

I don't think everyone came into contact with an infected person. I think until late January the number of infected people was fairly small (graphs look almost like a straight line). Also that majority of people are asymptotic hasn't proven true in China apparently. It's perhaps true for the first 48 hours. Truly asymptotic people make up less than 2% apparently. The Milan scenario, not sure now, but I believe if you were a tourist or a business person the chances would have been far higher because of your behaviour.

Why?

 

[christy87]

IV a feeling cork could turn into a shit storm for this in Ireland, 60 staff in CUH told to confine them selves, my buddies workplace has sent people home for 2 weeks for just being in CUH this week, also I work with a fella weeks mother is a cook out there so I'm thinking of IV got it IV got it, nothing I can do about it now

 

[senorgregster]

Has there been any further news on the root cause of the infection? It was first thought, that it started in a chinese food market - has that been confirmed now?

Leading on, if that is actually the case - should this lead onto food and hygiene standards being globally regulated? With how well connected the entire world is, poor hygiene/food/safety standards can put the citizens across the world at risk - not just within a given country.

Last I heard it was from bats. Not sure if they figured out how it jumped though. And as for the food market... Probably just a busy place. One sick person goes and there it goes

 

[senorgregster]

I'm currently in quarantine and preparing my thesis defense as I'm graduating next week(6 and a half years of busting my arse to end up with a Skype graduation), I've barely had any contact with the outside world over the last few days.

Congratulations on the thesis! What field?

 

[Dancfc]

yeah there’s quite a bit of helpful information that I think they should know by now, such as how long does it stay on what sort of surfaces and exactly the questions you raised too. I’m hearing all sorts online such as 9 days/two weeks on metal to 15 minutes on anything! So weird. It’s not like knowing those things would freak the public out, they are already taking worst case speculation as gospel!

Yeah I honestly believe it would help a lot.

Like, if you're in this area your the chances of catching it are 1/500. In other words take precautions but it's still safe enough to live as normal.

Straight to the point, no messing about.

 

[SportingCP96]

My point being by saying “it’s just a flu” is that the percentage of deaths is very low. This is not some serious life threatening thing to the human race. Next year there will be another one.

 

[stepic]

Has there been any further news on the root cause of the infection? It was first thought, that it started in a chinese food market - has that been confirmed now?

Leading on, if that is actually the case - should this lead onto food and hygiene standards being globally regulated? With how well connected the entire world is, poor hygiene/food/safety standards can put the citizens across the world at risk - not just within a given country.

Good luck trying to regulate that

 

[Prometheus]

If someone went shopping and caught public transport reguarly it would have been next to certain they would have come close to it at some point whether that was by an infected person or droplets on a surface/door handle.

My hypothetical Milan scenario would be if I just went there for the night, straight to the hotel kept myself to myself and left the next day.

Maybe the closest thing to what you're looking for is the data provided by the cruise ships?

 

[SportingCP96]

I think a case like this sums up the current hysteria: BBC. This bloke has had death threats against himself and his family because he has what amounts to a mild cold.

How fecking mental would everybody be going if it was plastered all over the news every time a poor old bugger in their 80s with pre-existing health conditions and a dodgy immune system was finished off by the flu? During a few months last winter, the flu killed 34,000 people in the US alone. Did anyone give a feck? No, because it's not new and scary.

Exactly. This mass hysteria over a nothing virus. And I am saying “nothing virus” based on the massively low death rates compared to swine flu, Ebola and others ( I saw a chart comparing this virus to the other ones since 1966 and this has BY FAR the lowest death rates).

 

[christy87]

Has there been any further news on the root cause of the infection? It was first thought, that it started in a chinese food market - has that been confirmed now?

Leading on, if that is actually the case - should this lead onto food and hygiene standards being globally regulated? With how well connected the entire world is, poor hygiene/food/safety standards can put the citizens across the world at risk - not just within a given country.

It would be impossible to regulate, just look at lampers on this side of the world killing rabbits, to some that would be disgusting as would what they do in China looks disgusting to us, but seriously the baby mice is the worst thing iv seen from china

 

[Prometheus]

Why?

Because the first places that were hit were places where tourists/foreigners would usually stay/go.

 

[Prometheus]

 

[Ian Reus]

chinese food market

Chicken balls.

 

[Wibble]

Exactly. This mass hysteria over a nothing virus. And I am saying “nothing virus” based on the massively low death rates compared to swine flu, Ebola and others ( I saw a chart comparing this virus to the other ones since 1966 and this has BY FAR the lowest death rates).

It is far from a nothing virus even if it isn't the zombie apocalypse.

A virus that infects others before people with it experience serious symptoms with no natural resistance, no treatment and no vaccine, that hospitalises up to 10% of those who catch it, is obviously a very serious concern.

If only 20% of people in the UK catch it and only 5% of them need hospitalisation that is still 665,000 hospital beds required this year.

 

[Dumbstar]

It is far from a nothing virus even if it isn't the zombie apocalypse.

A virus that infects others before people with it experience serious symptoms with no natural resistance, no treatment and no vaccine, that hospitalises up to 10% of those who catch it, is obviously a very serious concern.

If only 20% of people in the UK catch it and only 5% of them need hospitalisation that is still 665,000 hospital beds required this year.

So you reckon roughly 14 million people can catch it in the UK? Going by your 20% hypothesis.

 

[Revan]

Exactly. This mass hysteria over a nothing virus. And I am saying “nothing virus” based on the massively low death rates compared to swine flu, Ebola and others ( I saw a chart comparing this virus to the other ones since 1966 and this has BY FAR the lowest death rates).

2) It has already killed more people than SARS and MERS combined (two of the closest similar viruses).
3) It seems to be far more contagious than either of them, an order of magnitude so far, it might, in the end, infect thousands of times more people.
4) The swine flu had a death rate of 0.02%, which is lower than the normal flu. This officially has a death rate of 3.6% (most likely, the real death rate is gonna be around 0.6-1%), but still it is 30-180 more deadly than the swine flu.

Your post is either totally uninformed, or you are spreading some false propaganda.

 

[predator]

Having followed the updates of this virus since it first came about I'm fully resigned to contracting it now for 2 reasons. Firstly I am always shaking hands, always touching my face and generally being oblivious to the thought of catching infections. Secondly, my job involves alot of a travelling up and down the UK and I'm always staying in hotels. I've just got back from being in Croydon since the start of this week and I will be in Glasgow next week.

I'm personally not afraid to catch it because I am 25 and have no underlying medical issues but I am concerned about spreading to the likes of my parents and older folks in general.

Having said all of that I do think the virus will be dealt with accordingly despite what the tabloids say. I also think it will be a blessing in disguise for educating the masses, when a super strain does occur.

 

[Wibble]

So you reckon roughly 14 million people can catch it in the UK? Going by your 20% hypothesis.

Between 5% and 20% of people catch the flu every year despite there being some immunity in the population and a vaccine, so it is quite possible. Whatever the case it suggests we really need to slow the spread to avoid overwhelming our health system. This is why governments are taking this so seriously I suspect.

Of course this isn't the flu and we won't really know if we do enough or too much/little until after the event.

 

[sglowrider]

Having followed the updates of this virus since it first came about I'm fully resigned to contracting it now for 2 reasons. Firstly I am always shaking hands, always touching my face and generally being oblivious to the thought of catching infections. Secondly, my job involves alot of a travelling up and down the UK and I'm always staying in hotels. I've just got back from being in Croydon since the start of this week and I will be in Glasgow next week.

I'm personally not afraid to catch it because I am 25 and have no underlying medical issues but I am concerned about spreading to the likes of my parents and older folks in general.

Having said all of that I do think the virus will be dealt with accordingly despite what the tabloids say. I also think it will be a blessing in disguise for educating the masses, when a super strain does occur.

This is why its almost criminal that the health authorities say you dont need to wear a mask. I think if I get it I will survive or/and more likely suffer mild symptoms like the majority.

However, It would kill me if during the incubation period, and I am unaware I was inflicted with it, pass it on to an elderly and kill him or her.

 

[SportingCP96]

It is far from a nothing virus even if it isn't the zombie apocalypse.

A virus that infects others before people with it experience serious symptoms with no natural resistance, no treatment and no vaccine, that hospitalises up to 10% of those who catch it, is obviously a very serious concern.

If only 20% of people in the UK catch it and only 5% of them need hospitalisation that is still 665,000 hospital beds required this year.

When a virus first is discovered there is never a cure right away. I guarantee you there will be though. There is nothin to fear. It’s like getting a cold that’s how low hour chances are of dying.

Plus knowing people nowadays they wound not even get a vaccine anyways since they don’t want to vaccinate there kids.

 

[SportingCP96]

2) It has already killed more people than SARS and MERS combined (two of the closest similar viruses).
3) It seems to be far more contagious than either of them, an order of magnitude so far, it might, in the end, infect thousands of times more people.
4) The swine flu had a death rate of 0.02%, which is lower than the normal flu. This officially has a death rate of 3.6% (most likely, the real death rate is gonna be around 0.6-1%), but still it is 30-180 more deadly than the swine flu.

Your post is either totally uninformed, or you are spreading some false propaganda.

1%. My point exactly which is this is a nothing virus. The chances of you dying by it is very very minimal.

Maybe was the bird flu then I saw a chart comparison a few days ago but I could have the virus confused.

The MAIN point is...this is nothing to stress over as it is not one bit serious.

 

[Ian Reus]

1%. My point exactly which is this is a nothing virus. The chances of you dying by it is very very minimal.

Maybe was the bird flu then I saw a chart comparison a few days ago but I could have the virus confused.

The MAIN point is...this is nothing to stress over as it is not one bit serious.

Would you be willing to fly to wuhan for a week if I pay for your return flight and accommodation? Not spending money, of course.

 

[Revan]

1%. My point exactly which is this is a nothing virus. The chances of you dying by it is very very minimal.

Maybe was the bird flu then I saw a chart comparison a few days ago but I could have the virus confused.

The MAIN point is...this is nothing to stress over as it is not one bit serious.

1% is still pretty serious. If as many people catch this as the swine flu, 6-15m people will die, and hundreds of millions will be really sick. The entire economy will crash, which might kill more people in long run than the virus.

Sure, it is very unlikely that I am gonna die, I am still in my (late) twenties and healthy, but that doesn’t make the virus less serious. It is a pretty big deal, which is why it is being taken so seriously.

 

[SportingCP96]

Would you be willing to fly to wuhan for a week if I pay for your return flight and accommodation? Not spending money, of course.

Dude your missing the point.

Would I like to go get sick? Obviously not

Would I like to get a the normal flu in general? No

That’s like saying “go put your head in a microwave and get cancer” “would you like it?!”

That was a really dumb way to try to make your point.

This virus has minimal life threat. People are scared because it’s new.

“Omg there is no cure” no shit....it was just discovered.

Give it a few months and this will blow over just as every Afro mentioned virus.

 

[SportingCP96]

1% is still pretty serious. If as many people catch this as the swine flu, 6-15m people will die, and hundreds of millions will be really sick. The entire economy will crash, which might kill more people in long run than the virus.

Sure, it is very unlikely that I am gonna die, I am still in my (late) twenties and healthy, but that doesn’t make the virus less serious. It is a pretty big deal, which is why it is being taken so seriously.

It’s as serious as Ebola, bird flu and all the others that came before it. A cure will be found and it will blow over. It is not a world wide epidemic.

I mean I get it it’s new people are scared but like....relax people

 

[Arruda]

Maybe was the bird flu then I saw a chart comparison a few days ago but I could have the virus confused.

The MAIN point is...this is nothing to stress over as it is not one bit serious.

Does this look normal to you? I'm not even asking you to watch the whole video, just watch a few seconds here and there. That's Beijing yesterday...

 

[Revan]

It’s as serious as Ebola, bird flu and all the others that came before it. A cure will be found and it will blow over. It is not a world wide epidemic.

I mean I get it it’s new people are scared but like....relax people

Ebola was serious, but was located in only few counties. If Ebola would have reached US, Europe, China, SEA, it would have caused the biggest havoc in modern history.

Sure, a cure might eventually be found. Or might not (Ebola, MERS, SARS don’t have a cure). Heck, even more historically deathly diseases like the death plague or rabies don’t have a cure. Dunno why people are taking for granted that a cure will be found, and it will be found soon.

And yes, it is not gonna cause the dawn of civilization or cause a Zombiecalypse, no one is saying that. But it might kill a lot of people, cause an economical depression and essentially make this year a lost year for all purposes.

 

[SportingCP96]

Ebola was serious, but was located in only few counties. If Ebola would have reached US, Europe, China, SEA, it would have caused the biggest havoc in modern history.

Sure, a cure might eventually be found. Or might not (Ebola, MERS, SARS don’t have a cure). Heck, even more historically deathly diseases like the death plague or rabies don’t have a cure. Dunno why people are taking for granted that a cure will be found, and it will be found soon.

And yes, it is not gonna cause the dawn of civilization or cause a Zombiecalypse, no one is saying that. But it might kill a lot of people, cause an economical depression and essentially make this year a lost year for all purposes.

Possibly but it’s too early to tell, based on the stats I have no reason to believe we should be worried yet.

 

[SportingCP96]

Does this look normal to you? I'm not even asking you to watch the whole video, just watch a few seconds here and there. That's Beijing yesterday...

I see the conditions and how no one even comes out I get it it’s a scary situation but I believe it is something that will fade away just as all the recent viruses.

 

[Arruda]

I see the conditions and how no one even comes out I get it it’s a scary situation but I believe it is something that will fade away just as all the recent viruses.

It will most likely eventually fade away of course. The problem is what happens between now and then.

My point with the video was not that it's scary, it's that for the Chinese to do that you must recognize it's not normal. You have never seen a quarantine like that in your lifetime.

 

[Ian Reus]

Dude your missing the point.

Would I like to go get sick? Obviously not

Would I like to get a the normal flu in general? No

That’s like saying “go put your head in a microwave and get cancer” “would you like it?!”

That was a really dumb way to try to make your point.

This virus has minimal life threat. People are scared because it’s new.

“Omg there is no cure” no shit....it was just discovered.

Give it a few months and this will blow over just as every Afro mentioned virus.

I agree it is a silly way to make a point. I just think you're missing same point of how serious this can get.

A new unknown strain of virus has explored humans for the first time as is exploding quicker and easier than any virus we've ever encountered.

We don't yet have any protection against it and the only means we have to slow it down was demonstrated by china who basically locked down entire cities. This is equivalent to ww2. The general population needs to come together to fight this otherwise it could potentially wipe out more than the Spanish flu given our global reach now.

If it mutates, the hope is is adapts to humans so it doesn't kill them. Best case scenario.

Flu symptoms just means this virus has already evolved to infiltrate your body to use it to spread itself. That's why you sneeze and cough. It wants that although it probably wouldn't want to kill it's only means of human transport just now if it had a conscience.