this is the official advice in Australia, if I had what felt like a regular cold I'd probably just wait to see if the symptoms get worse
SARS CoV-2 coronavirus / Covid-19 (No tin foil hat silliness please)
- Thread starter Don't Kill Bill
- Start date
this is the official advice in Australia, if I had what felt like a regular cold I'd probably just wait to see if the symptoms get worse
Travel to the source itself to get the virus early before the health services get overwhelmed.
Smart man.
These two tweets are utterly terrifying.
Based on these doctors experiences in Italy, it sounds like the mortality rate might get higher and higher in the coming weeks/months. And this increase will be driven by the CFR in younger/healthy patients catching up with the elderly/immune compromised. FFS.
That tweet's not much help to the layman. Good to see you around though!
Thanks Jips. The scary bit is two details. 10% of cases ending up in intensive care and younger people taking much longer than older people to end up on a ventilator. They fight the illness longer but it still gets them in the end.
Hence low mortality amongst young people (based on early Chinese data) probably an underestimate.
Probably should have tagged @Arruda and @africanspur
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As of right now yes, I think flu transmits easier, so more people are likely to get it.
The mortality rate of Covid-19 is currently higher, but it is presumed quite drastically overstated at this point in time, due to low detection and many deaths being patients with covid rather than dieing of covid, which is quite a big distinction.
It is likely its less than 1% (rather than the original idea of 3%) we don't really know though. That is still higher than the flu, which I think is about 0.1%.
Covid-19 in my opinion, is very unlikely to match flu deaths, but obviously I can't predict the future.
If not posted here previously, I recommend reading this article: https://slate.com/technology/2020/0...rate-lower-than-we-think.html?utm_source=digg
Gives a simple and factual (albeit the sample population is not ideal in size) explanation as for why the general populous should stop hoarding and taking resources from the people who actually need it, why the average Joe has little reason to worry for his own health etc.
Gives a simple and factual (albeit the sample population is not ideal in size) explanation as for why the general populous should stop hoarding and taking resources from the people who actually need it, why the average Joe has little reason to worry for his own health etc.
I read that and was (temporarily) reassured but the problem with the cruise ship data is that most of those people still haven’t recovered. So we’ve no idea what the mortality rate will end up as by the time the viral infection has run its course in all of them.
Japan will no longer accept travellers from China and South Korea for the time being.
More than 50% of tourists in Japan come from these two countries. Peak tourist season(cherry blossom) will start in just a couple of weeks.
Surely this must be devasting for so many businesses?
More than 50% of tourists in Japan come from these two countries. Peak tourist season(cherry blossom) will start in just a couple of weeks.
Surely this must be devasting for so many businesses?
I hate that almost every article you find is going out of its way reassure you instead of informing you.
I have one of our head of departments coughing and spluttering coming into the office and wanting a catchup with me later, I don't get why people are doing this.
Yes. Manufacture. Tourism. Medical. Trade. Textile. Garments etc.
Most of our raw materials. Machine part. Components etc has to do with china.
So yes, pretty bad. But i suspect there are people who gains from all of this, in a non sinister way. Examples are local substitute manufacturer would benefit from export from china slowing down.
I would say because just coughing alone means he doesn't have Covid, he's possibly rung the NHS and been told he's fine.
Regardless of Coronavirus, I've never understood the idea of working when youre ill. Like stay home you feckhead and get better. Literally serves no purpose - every fever, viral infection or flu I've recently had is because of some dimwit working whilst ill.
If you are a person in a good physical/healthy condition, then the best thing you should do is to wash your hands regularly, do not stockpile things like masks or sanitizers and let the people who are are in actual danger buy this, and if you feel ill or have been places where there is a chance you could have been infected, do not visit family/friends with a lowered physical condition.
The reason why the mortality rate is so high is down to lack of testing kits, the number of people infected but not being tested or not showing any symptoms at all or only a mild cold and demographic factors.
Ex: Let assume that everyone in a city of 100 000 has been exposed, then only a certain % of them (let's say 25%) are showing any symptoms. And we only have the ability to test 10 000, or only half of the ones showing symptoms are in need of medical assistance and thus an urgent need to be tested... The mortality rate is extremely inflated due to all the people not being tested or not showing any or serious symptoms are not factored in when calculating the mortality rate.
I’m actually starting to feel a little envious of the people already infected. Get it over and done with before the health service is overwhelmed. Getting a huge amount of care and attention while this is still a novel scenario. Fit, healthy and completely immune by the time the shit really hits the fan.
there is no evidence of immunity , and there are already 2 strains and you can get both at the same time
How do we know this?
The CFR is what it is. The % of confirmed cases that die. So people not sick enough to be tested have never been included in this calculation for any other virus. So why should they be included here?
The other elephant in the room is that the CFR for flu etc is from past pandemics. Where everyone infected eventually recovered or died. What we’re facing now are constantly moving goalposts and a huge proportion of people infected facing uncertain outcomes. So the CFR could just as easily go up as go down. In fact, I’ve read comments from smart people who think it’s much more likely to go up than down.
Completely agree with your first paragraph.
@Dumbstar I've read that the firt Briton to reportedly catch the virus was teaching in Wuhan last november.
Well, the fact that only a low percentage of people caught the virus whilst being in such a confined area shows that transmission isn't as quick and simple as first thought. Surely, good news?
So estimate the total number of deaths in the UK to this thing this year?...
100k is my guess.
Hahahahahahahahaha. You should go and work for the mail or the express.
We've had 1 death so far in total and she was 70 and had multiple health issues anyway. Between 21-24 UK citizens on average die every single day from Alcohol related deaths to put this in perspective.
Get a grip and stop over reacting. 18000 tests and over 17,800 negative results were the figures released yesterday.
The thing is, reports are coming out of Italy that totally debunk the 'young and healthy will be fine' line.
People with no serious underlying health issues are ending up in intensive care ffs.
Think of all the people who are young but with mild asthma... that's a lot of people who will likely become seriously ill or die because of this.
The complete lack of proper effort by the Government to actually halt this awful virus is criminal - especially as it's the same Government that has slowly dismantled our beautiful healthcare system for 8 years.
Likewise the Chinese Government have essentially murdered thousands of people Worldwide via their dishonesty as the virus broke out.
If ever people wanted and needed a wake up call - this is it. The population needs to demand better.
People with no serious underlying health issues are ending up in intensive care ffs.
Think of all the people who are young but with mild asthma... that's a lot of people who will likely become seriously ill or die because of this.
The complete lack of proper effort by the Government to actually halt this awful virus is criminal - especially as it's the same Government that has slowly dismantled our beautiful healthcare system for 8 years.
Likewise the Chinese Government have essentially murdered thousands of people Worldwide via their dishonesty as the virus broke out.
If ever people wanted and needed a wake up call - this is it. The population needs to demand better.
People haven't recovered though mate.
And it takes 4 - 8 weeks for people to die from this.
Btw guys I phoned that 111 NHS number because I had a cough and I asked the rep on the phone about other things and he said there’s absolutely no need for people to be wearing masks
Are you really comparing an airborne virus that has become an epidemic, to something you can choose to do i.e. drink excessive amounts of alcohol?
Is what he said even that dramatic?
The rate of recovery in China (ground zero for the virus) gets bigger and bigger every single day.
The thing is many are happy with the efforts so far. What difference does it make to someones like if some random old lady in Berkshire just died from this virus? I mean she was dying anyway, no?
We don't know if recovery from infection provides significant immunity, nor how long immunity lasts if it does. There have been several potential incidents of reinfection, and lots of speculation/fears among scientists about the potential for Antibody Dependent Enhancement making subsequent infection with a different strain of the virus (or another coronavirus) much more deadly.
Cheers.
On another note are there any indications of any mid-long term effects of having the virus (even if you recover)? From other similar coronaviruses
Insulting another member
Comparing the figures you plank not the activity/issue to put it into perspective. We've had 1 UK death from Convid-19 and she was really ill anyway and had been in and out of hospital.
116 people out of 66million. And most of those 116 people will get ill for a week or two and recover. It's not quite the epidemic it's being made out to be. Not something we should laugh off either but people going way overboard because of the media's handling of it as usual.
Yeah, but as I said, think about how many people in society have Asthma... and think how it'll affect them.
Lots of these people are young and otherwise healthy - if a professional athlete with Asthma got this virus, it could still kill / badly damage them.
The lack of containment strategy from bumbling, greedy Governments will cause this virus to ravage Global society.
I agree with you. I hope you're wrong though.
Survivors of the original SARS virus have been shown to suffer long-term problems with bone necrosis, kidney function and mental health. It's probably due to a combination of the virus and side-effects of the treatments.
Also:
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/32104915
Since you're being unnecessarily rude, care to actually show any evidence to back up these opinions?
The 100k figure is well within the moderate infection and mortality rate that PHE are set out. It's probably on the lower end if anything.
100,000 deaths in the UK this year ????
I'd say that's way more than dramatic mate. It's quite frankly ridiculous. It's been in the country a few weeks already and we've had just 1 death so far and she was very old and in ill health anyway.