That makes sense. It was bugging me because I know of only one single confirmed flu case in my entire life (about 2 weeks ago) and I'm pretty sure I know hundreds of actual undiagnosed cases.
SARS CoV-2 coronavirus / Covid-19 (No tin foil hat silliness please)
- Thread starter Don't Kill Bill
- Start date
I think @Arruda nailed it. Many cases of flu also fly under the radar but they are included in mortality rates by simple estimation.
Nearly everyone in the world will be exposed to this over the next 6-12 months.
To say otherwise is being disingenuous or flat out dishonest.
Lots of people will die who may not have died ordinarily but by and large it won’t have a huge effect.
Over the coming years we’ll deal with this like the flu virus (ie not really deal with it) and in 30 years time everyone will wonder what the fuss was all about.
Tl;dr short term hysteria long term irrelevance
To say otherwise is being disingenuous or flat out dishonest.
Lots of people will die who may not have died ordinarily but by and large it won’t have a huge effect.
Over the coming years we’ll deal with this like the flu virus (ie not really deal with it) and in 30 years time everyone will wonder what the fuss was all about.
Tl;dr short term hysteria long term irrelevance
It isn't definitely under 1%. It is highly likely to be less that 3% but there aren't many definites at the moment. Best guesses seem to be that it may be as low as 1% at the moment and the quality of healthcare and public health provisions in each country may vary that figure down slightly or up quite a bit. It then may be that as some degree of immunity begins to build in the world's population, especially if we manage to make a vaccine (which we have never managed for a Coronavirus so far and may take years) this may come down to something closer to the 0.1% of the flu.
The objective now will be to slow the spread of the disease to reduce the chance of health systems being overwhelmed and economies damaged even further (which has a health/mortality costs as well).
Not necessarily depending on what you mean by exposed.
Only 5-20 percent of people per year get a form of flu which means far less than "everyone" id exposed to it and flu is more transmittable than this Coronavirus. Given that huge attempts to restrict the spread are occurring it may be that we can keep exposure well down well below everyone getting exposed (no guarantee of course).
I don't think the chap meant to offend and I didn't find it offensive. I think encouraging anyone to guess how many will die and sort of make a game of it could be taken by offence but that wasn't what he was doing.
Thanks goodness I didn't include Hubai Province on my Celebrity Death list. People would have lost their minds.
If I go to Italy on Monday then I'm going to have to isolate on my return. But if I'm gone for the 11 days I had planned, I'm guessing it will be so widespread in Britain by then that me isolating will be pointless.
I'm sure the people around you would rather you did.
I'll be returning to London. I have a feeling it will have got out of control here within the two weeks that I'd be gone.
The current advice indicates that I'd only need to self-isolate if I've been to the lockdown areas in Northern Italy, or if I exhibit any symptoms.
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Hmm, are you worried about getting it yourself? Not sure I'd fancy going to Italy right now.
Strange decisions being taken over in the States apparently:
I don't think it matters. I was in the south of France last weekend, not far away from north Italy, two airports, no restrictions, no tests, no one with masks, thousands of people moving around in every direction. Hundreds will have got it by now and are spreading it further it whilst unaware. The containment phase is well over.
While I feel that it's inevitable that it's going to spread and it'll be everywhere so enough, I don't think it's inevitable that we're all going to get it.
Personally, I'll be trying to keep out of harm's way wherever possible. It's easy for me though, I work from home.
It was being said that 80% of people who contract it are asymptotic... is this still true? I've also been reading that even healthy adults with no underlying conditions are getting severely ill to the point where they need ICU level care.
Believe there's a few from Maryland here. 31 tests so far... 3 just came back positive.
it feels like there is ten times more panic for this than there ever was for swine flu
Is that justified if you compare the two?
Is that justified if you compare the two?
Swine flu was a strain of influenza so although it spread very fast at least it was a more or less known quantity that could be dealt with by including it in next years flu vaccine. That is my take on it.
Swine Flu also had an antiviral cure, 'Tamiflu' - I wonder if one will existed for Covid-19 in time.
As Tamiflu specifically targets a protein in the influenza virus I'd be surprised if it worked on a Coronavirus. There are of course other anti-viral drugs and lets hope some of them are effective on COVID-19
Can you catch it from knickers?
Obviously had a head start!
Gilead Sciences Initiates Two Phase 3 Studies of Investigational Antiviral Remdesivir for the Treatment of COVID-19
-- U.S. FDA Grants Investigational New Drug Authorization to Study Remdesivir for the Treatment of COVID-19 -
I'm not entirely sure they meant them kind of droplets.
Phew. I thought that was my weekend ruined.
How is that great news? I'm an adult.
I'm sorry to hear you're not well. One good thing about this though is prior to your death you can repent all your sins as a Liverpool fan and I will request our resident priests @Ian Reus and @Sassy Colin perform an exorcism so you can rest in peace with your ashes scattered on the playing surface of the Theatre of Dreams. God speed.
Bad research. Thanks for pointing that out.
So, flu is still a much bigger killer by wire done way, right?
Two confirmed presumptive cases in Denver. It's closing in on me 
WHO says there are probably many many cases out there we dont know about. Its not positive when it comes to the risk of you getting infectet, but it is positive when it comes to mortality rates.
It is 0.6% in Sout Korea, which has done by far more testing than other countries. I think their estimate is closer to the real number than the estimates done in other countries which are not doing enough testings.
It is still a very large number though. If 25% of people get it, we are talking for 12 million deaths, which would be the largest pandemic since the Spanish flu.
Good luck. Quite a few in my city, and there are strong rumours circulating that someone in my work got infected too. Probably gonna be 'work from home' very soon for me, just expecting the official email.Two confirmed presumptive cases in Denver. It's closing in on me
Somehow not scared at all. But I don't have a kitchen, so if the worst comes and I have to self-isolate, I am gonna die from starvation.
As of last night I've got cold like symptoms. How do I know if it's just a cold or that I need to do something more just in case?
I'm not sure but if you're a relatively young and healthy person the best thing you can do is stay at home and minimize contact with people.