Think we shouldn't look into these reports so much. I read one that says it barely causes any damage to most organs in comparison to its predecessors.
SARS CoV-2 coronavirus / Covid-19 (No tin foil hat silliness please)
- Thread starter Don't Kill Bill
- Start date
I've seen several reports of these kinds of effects, although we obviously know little about how the virus works and all its different modes of attack so far. I can't help but feel the people thinking of Covid-19 as a 'pretty nasty flu' are going to be wide of the mark.
I certainly don't want to catch it and find out.
I'm being rude because you're scare mongering. 100,000 UK deaths is what you think will happen this year from this virus? Honestly?
There's been about 3,000 deaths in China so far and the rate of recovery is increasing at a fantastic rate every day that passes now. Many experts are saying that the worst could be out of the way for China and the signs are good for the virus slowing down a lot. And that's ground zero for Convid-19.
100,000 Uk deaths is quite frankly a ridiculous thing to say. Absolutely barmy.
Think you will find this outcome is possible with flu aswell in very small cases
It’s still invalid. You are comparing apples and oranges. Anyone can cherry pick something to compare it to e.g. ‘car crashes kill x number of people per day compared to x number of deaths from the coronavirus’. There is no relation.
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Well if it's ridiculous it should be very easy for you to provide some evidence. Are you accusing the government and PHE of scaremongering now?
100,000 UK people are going to die from this in 2020. Are you sticking to that? Let's revist this in December. You'll be laughed off these boards forever.
I have provided evidence. It's been in China for much longer and 'only' killed 3,000 so far. That's ground zero for the virus too and also a very heavily populated country too. I don't think it will even reach close to 100,000 deaths in China let alone in the UK. Scientists have been saying that the recovery rates are improving drastically every day in China which is obviously fantastic news.
Your scare mongering and being a drama queen.
Finally managed to get a hold of hand sanitiser. Being sold at the counter & a limit of one per person (although I suppose people can turn up more than once to shop in a day). Cost £1.30 & the same is on eBay for £15!!
The difference there is they've gone onto extreme lockdown, I'm not so sure some governments in the West have the willingness to do that nor the same levels of control on their population.
When you consider Iran have released a considerable amount of prisoners temporarily..
You have a fair point - as said above, China achieved control through a mass lockdown. That said, they were at a huge disadvantage as it was probably around for a month before many took notice.
Tone it down though - you are being rude.
I think even China's own willingness is starting to spread thin. I read something about some pressure from the government now to re-start some industries. As soon as they lift the lockdown, it'll be back in overdrive.
Yet, entire countries, cities, businesses and infrastructure don’t get closed down for a flu outbreak. The Chinese welded their own apartments closed. That’s why I don’t like it when people keep comparing to the flu. If the experts are telling people to stay at home and quarantining cities then we should be more alert. Being dismissive will just serve it spreading
It's only been two months or so. Also these viruses don't spread in linear fashion. Besides, China has already taken unprecedented steps - there are like over 60 million people quarantined, entire cities and provinces on lock down. Do you think that's scare mongering? The numbers being posted are based on the number of people projected to get the virus in the UK. It's projected to be at least one third of the population, and the most conservative estimates of the death rates is 0.6-1% . Taking the most conservative of parameters based on what we know so far, do your own arithmetic.
That might explain all those active cases in China. They seem to be lagging far behind the decrese in new cases which started happening a few weeks ago.
Sorry perhaps i wasn't clear, please provide some expert evidence to back up your assertion not your hunch based on figures. Maybe you're an expert yourself?
The governments reasonable worst case scenario is 80% infected with a 1% mortality rate and at it's peak 20% at once. Thats modelled at 500k deaths. Your claim seems to be that there's no way that even 1 in 5 will be infected to get close to 100k but that's your hunch.
The flu is on average 17k deaths and this is universally considered more deadly and infectious.
There are too many variables and unknowns even for qualified individuals to make any predictions but PHE are far more accurate than anything you and I could arrive at based of random hunches.
To add on to that, that's if people believe the reported numbers in China. I personally don't, on two occasions tencent reported numbers considerably higher than that of the official figure, they then amended this to the government figure. From what I recall it was 10-15x higher
That is very worrying, and something that hasn't seemingly been investigated or challenged properly.
So, 1200 Canary Wharf workers evacuated - staff banned from using TFL. But, I'm just being dramatic according to some...
Could you please stop fear mongering, without any concrete proof of the nonsense you make up. Some anecdotal evidence from a couple of doctors does not allow you to make these ridiculous statements.
China is adding 20-30 new deaths per day whilst the new recoveries are currently around 2-3,000 per day.
they do this for any totally new disease regardless of it being a 1% or 20% death rate.
it’s not because the world is going to end which some people are edging towards it’s litreally world protocol to do this for any new virus, I think that’s what people fail to understand it doesn’t mean doom
the whole quarantine process is basically to stop public health systems being destroyed as there’s no immunity, unfortunately some people are always going to succumb new diseases but many more will if the care is not available for them that’s the issue here.
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At the same time that’s what makes it so dangerous- the fact that it’s a new virus. People are comparing it to the normal flu not realising this is a whole new strain that doctors don’t know how to properly deal with *yet*.
I'm not saying our doom is impending. I've argued that the control measures are coming into play far too late to have a positive impact.
Dumbstar stated that it was on Sunday that one of the employees in his building notified the company of having the virus. Yet, we saw no action till 5 days later.
there are 120,000 people working in Canary Wharf, so you could also say 99% of Canary Wharf workers not evacuated. but then that doesn't sell papers does it?
I'm in my office in Canary Wharf right now btw.
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You could just as easily say up until Wednesday 100% were not evacuated.
Not sure how old you are but we heard similar stuff about SARS. And that had a higher death rate too. Roughly 1 in 10 people who got it died. The world kept spinning.
The things you heard about SARS were not similar at all. It may look like that in the memories of a layman, but isn't it obvious from the medical community, government authorities and events around the world that this is different?
You two are never going to agree on what constitutes a reasonable prediction because you have fundamentally different methods of forecasting. One of you is looking at numbers based on mathematical models, and the other on historic precedent. One is not necessarily better than the other and both have a place in predictive theory.
https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/a...ew-coronavirus-spread-two-sides-of-the-debate
Everything you have said so far has been based on your own feelings and seemingly weak intuitions about the matter. The disparity between your own lack of knowledge and the condescension you keep levelling at others is amazing to me.
working from home is so tantalisingly close... ugh.
Probably not for much longer I’d guess
Anyway it was nice knowing you. RIP
Let’s keep the discussion in the thread civil please. There is no need to stoop to personal insults. Warnings will be dispensed 
Estimated bans by Golden Blunder by end of 2020: 100,000
I don't think it will be too long before that becomes the decision...
I've heard you were the king of banding back in the day. Is this you coming out of retirement?Let’s keep the discussion in the thread civil please. There is no need to stoop to personal insults. Warnings will be dispensed
While I agree the UK is unlikely to see 100k deaths your method of comparison is flawed. You are comparing long term outcomes (deaths due to lifetime use of alcohol) to very early and preliminary data.
I understand some of this is a coping mechanism, but enough with the statements like "she had health issues anyway". These are actual people with families.
Please think of the children!
And the CFR will go down over time. Compare it between different regions in China. As alluded to in the article, the number of people with lung cancer + respiratory illnesses is high in Wuhan. Hebei is by far the worst province in China in regards to air pollution, while Wuhan (in Hubei is among the worst Cities). If the Virus gets a strong foothold in Hebei, the CFR will increase. If the number of cases in Europe increases, it will go down. In countries with a high percentage of the population smoking, the higher the CFR.
https://www.greenpeace.org/eastasia...e-ranking-74-chinese-cities-by-air-pollution/
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Templ..._outbreak_data/China_medical_cases_by_province
Smoking is a really good example, especially when factoring in genders. Coronavirus has shown a higher mortality rate in men compared to women. Also, far more men smoke in China, compared to women.
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-age-sex-demographics/
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Smoking_in_China
If the outbreak started in a city or country with inhabitants that had less air pollution (stronger/healthier lungs), the CFR during the first months of the outbreak would have been lower. And the more time it goes, the more the medical experts understand regarding how to treat the virus more effectively. The main problem with the time factor is that the more people that are infected the higher the probability is that the virus will mutate again.
The point I am trying to make is that the CFR should be taken in relevance to a number of factors. The global average so early in the outbreak is not a good indication of what it will be 3 months from now. Nor is it generalizable for age, gender, city or country.