Fair enough. To be honest, I'm not panicking and neither am I too worried about myself. Its others I'm worried about.
SARS CoV-2 coronavirus / Covid-19 (No tin foil hat silliness please)
- Thread starter Don't Kill Bill
- Start date
Fair enough. To be honest, I'm not panicking and neither am I too worried about myself. Its others I'm worried about.
At the end of the day, we all want to same thing. I'm not a politician so these are just my views, whether they're right or wrong, time will tell.
Something slightly reassuring:
There are 11 million residents in Wuhan where the virus started, an area with a very tight population density of 1200 people per square kilometer (for reference, the UK is 259 per square kilometer) - although the major cities are much higher.
I don't know how many of China's 80,000 infected are from Wuhan itself, but even if it was all of them (which it isn't) - that would still mean only 0.8% of the population there got it thus far.
Since we're far less densely packed in the western world* one would hope our numbers would remain lower.
This isn't scientific, just pointing out some figures. Of course, the Wuhan figures will continue to go up, but I believe I read somewhere today that Covid-19 may well have peaked in China.
There are 11 million residents in Wuhan where the virus started, an area with a very tight population density of 1200 people per square kilometer (for reference, the UK is 259 per square kilometer) - although the major cities are much higher.
I don't know how many of China's 80,000 infected are from Wuhan itself, but even if it was all of them (which it isn't) - that would still mean only 0.8% of the population there got it thus far.
Since we're far less densely packed in the western world* one would hope our numbers would remain lower.
This isn't scientific, just pointing out some figures. Of course, the Wuhan figures will continue to go up, but I believe I read somewhere today that Covid-19 may well have peaked in China.
How come?
Walter cooking with lung cancer was one thing, he wouldn't even be allowed his trademark cough if they shot a new series where they've all got Covid-19.
I think you should measure your messaging. No need to be alarmist. You’ve clearly picked up a desire to stay close to this. But being overly dramatic is easily done.
Does look like the case. However, it took an entire country lockdown to limit the infections to just 80,000 (for now).
It’s just a bit shitty. These are people.
You're probably right.
The china numbers are not real imo . with 52k recovered from 80k total cases and no new daily cases you would think that things are getting back to normal , workplaces online . but there is gps data , coal consumption data , pollution measurements that say the whole country is still offline since january
I didn't consider that. It will be interesting to see the peak and recovery metrics for countries with more transparent governments in due course.
You can’t throw away all this hard work by going back to normal with 30,000 infected people!
China will have this eradicated in months we will still be picking the pieces up in Europe till the end of the year
65 million times 25% of the uk population times 1% fatality rate is 125k
Spanish flu killed 225k+ plus in the UK.
Probably I'm being ridiculously pessimistic, but it seems obvious that we aren't getting this thing under control
Spanish flu comparison is also pointless the world of science and health has evolved so much its a different world now
Not really. It's important to note, but all comparisons are useful.
Ehh, I can’t agree with that, morbid maybe but not shitty. In any situation like this involving some new virus strain, it’s natural that some people’s reaction to it will be to speculate on how much damage it will do. I don’t really see the disrespect that you’re assigning to it.
from what i have seen , the gov. is putting real pressure on factories to get online as they need to consume a quota of power weakly so some are running the lines empty. some tried to reopen but people did not show up or new cases spread and had to be shut down .
Making a game of it as you did is extremely shitty, Pseud is right to pull you up.
right..., mind quoting where I made a game of it?
Unnecessary as well, some of the people on here are as bad as the doom mongers in the media.
Your deleting it is proof enough you know you were wrong, but now you've come across as a coward as well.
I haven’t deleted anything
You’ve called me extremely shitty, and a coward. I really hope that when a mod confirms to you I haven’t deleted anything, you’ll at least admit you made a mistake.
Wasn’t him was it?
Oh feck, I've got the wrong geezer! You're a hundred percent right and I'm wrong.I haven’t deleted anything
You’ve called me extremely shitty, and a coward. I really hope that when a mod confirms to you I haven’t deleted anything, you’ll at least admit you made a mistake.
edit: having been so wrong I'd best not go after the right guy now, I'd probably get that wrong too. Apologies Casc.
#Justice4Cascarino
feck off.
Just imagine if this virus had been commonly spread by contact with your legs. You would have every chump in the world being reminded to "wash your legs".
It’s just not nice. You framed it badly. There’s no need for it.
It’s all good mate, I thought that mistaken identity was the case. I probably could have rectified the situation earlier haha.
regarding the original post, I genuinely didn’t see it as making a game of it (though it could have been worded better). This is mainly because I’ve been asked by a lot of (often scared) people about how deadly this will end up being (despite it not being my field at all). I think a lot of people are scared and want to know what to expect, how big of an issue this will turn out to be.
I mentioned it in the post above, but I’ve been asked countless times about how serious I think this will turn out to be, how many people will lose their lives to it. It’s not out of disrespect they’re asking, it’s because they’re worried. Maybe that wasn’t the poster’s intent, but I’ve had enough people asking me in daily life without any nefarious agenda that I’m willing to give the poster the benefit of the doubt. But yeah that’ll be my last post on it as the thread isn’t about me
Guessing how many humans will die is Callous.
People are asking how bad it will be. Not guessing a death total.
Your post was callous and wrong. I didn’t get dramatic. I just asked you not to do it.
Basically the same as the celebrity death pool isn't it?
Absolutely not
So it's okay to guess who is going to die and not how many people are going to die? Both seem pretty tasteless to me.
I keep hearing that the morbidity rate is not 3-5% because undiagnosed people who don't have severe enough symptoms aren't counted. They use this to then say the real rate is likely below 1%. They then go on to say it is therefore comparable to flu which has something like a 0.1-0.3% morbidity rate. Question for anyone who knows. Do all the flu stats miraculously count those who are asymptomatic or mildly symptomatic?
I believe so because those stats are estimates, it only makes sense to include them.
I don't understand why flu keeps getting mixed into this. Even WHO keeps mentioning flu in the middle of their coronaviruses reports as if they're adressing a bunch of 6th graders instead of professionalized health authorities around the world. It just adds so much confusion in the minds of people, might as well compare it with gonorrhea.
Not sure how it works for the Flu but Covid is definitely under 1%. So many cases are flying under the radar. You only have to look at Korea who are the testing kings to see what it should look like.
if more effort went in to testing around the world, we’d be in a much better position.Way more cases, sure, but at least those people would know they have it and be quarantined.
I’ve literally just been through this, I don’t blame the other poster at all but surely you’ve read the interaction we just had? It wasn’t my post.
And yes, people have asked me how many people could die. People are worried and it’s a normal thing to ask, especially those who are vulnerable. I work for the elderly and a lot of them are very worried.
I know you didn’t get dramatic, I just disagreed with you and pointed out why some people would ask about how deadly this could end up being. We have different opinions, that’s all mate, I don’t think anyone’s getting dramatic. Just to make it clear, it wasn’t my post, I just disagreed with how you perceived it. Now this is my last post on this bore fest.
the real issue nr is that over 10% end in the icu , not the speculative death rate . with the high R0 , governments and people not taking it seriously and heath services already at limit with the flu it can lead to a perfect storm