SARS CoV-2 coronavirus / Covid-19 (No tin foil hat silliness please)

The danish prime minister has just cancelled all events in Denmark that has more than 1.000 people due to Corona. Sport events, music events, etc.
 
Halds said:
The danish prime minister has just cancelled all events in Denmark that has more than 1.000 people due to Corona. Sport events, music events, etc.
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Upon hearing that, I was curious about what would happen with FC Copenhagen games, they're being played behind closed doors rather than cancelled outright
 
Fosu-Mens said:
And the CFR will go down over time. Compare it between different regions in China. As alluded to in the article, the number of people with lung cancer + respiratory illnesses is high in Wuhan. Hebei is by far the worst province in China in regards to air pollution, while Wuhan (in Hubei is among the worst Cities). If the Virus gets a strong foothold in Hebei, the CFR will increase. If the number of cases in Europe increases, it will go down. In countries with a high percentage of the population smoking, the higher the CFR.
https://www.greenpeace.org/eastasia...e-ranking-74-chinese-cities-by-air-pollution/
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Template:2019–20_coronavirus_outbreak_data/China_medical_cases_by_province

Smoking is a really good example, especially when factoring in genders. Coronavirus has shown a higher mortality rate in men compared to women. Also, far more men smoke in China, compared to women.
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-age-sex-demographics/
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Smoking_in_China

If the outbreak started in a city or country with inhabitants that had less air pollution (stronger/healthier lungs), the CFR during the first months of the outbreak would have been lower. And the more time it goes, the more the medical experts understand regarding how to treat the virus more effectively. The main problem with the time factor is that the more people that are infected the higher the probability is that the virus will mutate again.

The point I am trying to make is that the CFR should be taken in relevance to a number of factors. The global average so early in the outbreak is not a good indication of what it will be 3 months from now. Nor is it generalizable for age, gender, city or country.
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We both agree the CFR, right now, is pretty unreliable. For all sorts of reasons. You think it will trend down from here, I'm worried it might trend up. Time will tell. Closed case mortality data (which ignores cases where people are still sick and the outcome is uncertain) would give a mortality rate of well over 5%. This is, of course, trending downwards (because the sickest/frailest people die the most quickly) but I certainly don't think we can use CFR data to say with any kind of certainty that 99%+ of people infected will definitely survive.

Let's not forget that the mortality rate for young/healthy people who get seriously unwell and end up in ITU on a ventilator is currently very low. What happens if the numbers increase to a point where those ventilators are all in use and you have very unwell people being treated without the tools needed to keep them alive? The NHS ITU departments comes pretty close to running out of beds during most seasonal flu epidemics, despite the availability of very effective vaccines. What happens when the annual bed crisis comes round again and we've hundreds (thousands?) of additional people in need of critical care thanks to this new epidemic? What do you think will happen to the mortality rate in this scenario?
 
Halds said:
The danish prime minister has just cancelled all events in Denmark that has more than 1.000 people due to Corona. Sport events, music events, etc.
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Such a sensible and simple measure that will undoubtedly save a few lives. Just one would justify it.
 
And welcome to Peru. Not.

25 year old just back from Spain. Exactly the route I predicted it would come in via.

IMG-20200306-WA0001.jpg
 
Pogue Mahone said:
What happens if the numbers increase to a point where those ventilators are all in use and you have very unwell people being treated without the tools needed to keep them alive? The NHS ITU departments comes pretty close to running out of beds during most seasonal flu epidemics, despite the availability of very effective vaccines. What happens when the annual bed crisis comes round again and we've hundreds (thousands?) of additional people in need of critical care thanks to this new epidemic? What do you think will happen to the mortality rate in this scenario?
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nobody will be sitting on their hands while this all happened. extra funding and resources would be channelled in to keep up with demand when and where required, surely. hopefully contingency work is already being undertaken behind the scenes to account for these (possible) issues.
 
stepic said:
nobody will be sitting on their hands while this all happened. extra funding and resources would be channelled in to keep up with demand when and where required, surely. hopefully contingency work is already being undertaken behind the scenes to account for these (possible) issues.
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:lol:
 
Dumbstar said:
Yep wfh from now on. No way I'm taking any more unnecessary risks. No tubes, buses, etc. And definitely no HSBC surfaces. Saying that I'm going to local mosque for congregational Friday prayers now. :lol:

I'm protected from above mofos. :cool::nervous:
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There was no Mass last week .... I watched one online. You want to check to see what your Imam is recommending, they must have a longer-term plan.
 
I've just cried uncontrolably for 10 minutes. I do not think I am mentally well.
 
botond said:
you need to take breaks from refreshing for new reports , go for a walk or something
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True. I've got my lawnmower ready and am just gonna do it.

Yesterday I went to buy gasoline for it with a jerry can and was afraid I'd get dirty looks for hoarding from the gas station employee. It was an unwarranted fear
 
Arruda said:
I've just cried uncontrolably for 10 minutes. I do not think I am mentally well.
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Yeah take some time out. I went through this a couple of weeks ago and it is NOT healthy. There’s nothing we can do about this (other than to be hygienic and stay as healthy as possible) so I suggest taking some long walks and being around some real people.
There’s so much reporting on this and most of it isn’t factual at all. Everyone has their say, everyone is making predictions, everyone is either playing it down or scaremongering.

I nearly ruined our trip to Edinburgh this week by being so neurotic on the first day, telling my partner off for touching her eye or making sure I washed hands or where not possible sanitised my hands at literally every opportunity. I soon realised that was not helpful to anyone, especially me.
 
I'm learning some strange things off the back of this Coronavirus.

Did you know that 81,000 - 138,000 people die from snake bites each year. Seriously!! Snakes!

I'm blown away
 
Pogue Mahone said:
We both agree the CFR, right now, is pretty unreliable. For all sorts of reasons. You think it will trend down from here, I'm worried it might trend up. Time will tell. Closed case mortality data (which ignores cases where people are still sick and the outcome is uncertain) would give a mortality rate of well over 5%. This is, of course, trending downwards (because the sickest/frailest people die the most quickly) but I certainly don't think we can use CFR data to say with any kind of certainty that 99%+ of people infected will definitely survive.

Let's not forget that the mortality rate for young/healthy people who get seriously unwell and end up in ITU on a ventilator is currently very low. What happens if the numbers increase to a point where those ventilators are all in use and you have very unwell people being treated without the tools needed to keep them alive? The NHS ITU departments comes pretty close to running out of beds during most seasonal flu epidemics, despite the availability of very effective vaccines. What happens when the annual bed crisis comes round again and we've hundreds (thousands?) of additional people in need of critical care thanks to this new epidemic? What do you think will happen to the mortality rate in this scenario?
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We will see. I hope I'm right, as you do. Guess this somewhat depends on the physiological healthiness of the average human being on earth. Better or worse than the average Joe in Wuhan?

I stated in a post yesterday that there will be a shortage of CPBs and its like, which will impact the CFR. Many places will reach their capacity quickly. Then again, as time goes by we will become more experienced with threating the virus with medicines and reducing the % of the people infected before they are in need of aid for breathing.
 
I feel for you @Arruda - I'm obsessed with this crap too. Unfortunately, with all the free time I have at work means I've got nothing better to do. Take some time away and live your life.
 
The CFR in China has been about 0.7% in patients diagnosed after February 1st, which is pretty close to the numbers coming out of South Korea (0.6%). Still a lot higher than a seasonal flu, but a hell of a lot better than 2.5%.
 
I feel for the people on zero hour contracts and self employed who as always have to soldier on when they are full of the flu . It is shite .
 
Utdstar01 said:
Ffs. Dread to think what it'll be in a weeks time.
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don't get worked up by the rising number, look at how much it rises on a day to day basis. if that number is shortening, then it's a positive thing, not a negative.
 
Arruda said:
True. I've got my lawnmower ready and am just gonna do it.

Yesterday I went to buy gasoline for it with a jerry can and was afraid I'd get dirty looks for hoarding from the gas station employee. It was an unwarranted fear
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Be careful out there with your lawnmower, 75 people a year die using one

Each year, 800 children in the US alone, are run over by riding mowers or small tractors and more than 600 of those incidents result in amputation; 75 people are killed, and 20,000 injured; one in five deaths involves a child. For children under age 10, major limb loss is most commonly caused by lawn mowers.

http://enablingthefuture.org/2017/0...cause-of-amputations-for-children-in-the-usa/
 
Halds said:
The danish prime minister has just cancelled all events in Denmark that has more than 1.000 people due to Corona. Sport events, music events, etc.
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Didn't she just say that such events ought to be postponed or cancelled?
 
stepic said:
nobody will be sitting on their hands while this all happened. extra funding and resources would be channelled in to keep up with demand when and where required, surely. hopefully contingency work is already being undertaken behind the scenes to account for these (possible) issues.
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Your faith in the system is impressive.

Sadly, I doubt that the resources are just sitting around in a warehouse somewhere ready to ship.
 
Worrying thing I saw on that BBC article about the latest rise is that the tests take a couple of days to return?... Isn't it a few hours elsewhere?

Currently, tests take a couple of days to provide results.
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