Can't say I'm champing at the bit to spend my Sunday there!
SARS CoV-2 coronavirus / Covid-19 (No tin foil hat silliness please)
- Thread starter Don't Kill Bill
- Start date
Same here. Not going near.
I like him. He has been pretty spot on on many things, without sugarcoating stuff.
- He has been warning for a pandemic for a long time, also specifically what i would look like if it started in China, and he nailed it pretty much.
- He has been warning about outsourcing medical supplies to china.
- He warned about worldwide shortage of IV bags due to 85%of the saline was made in a town in Puerto Rico. It happened.
- He said early on 800,000 deaths in the US with mitigations, and one month has given 50k deaths, there are 12-18 months left.
I have not seen him make a fool out of himself and he has been trying to wake up the world for many years now.
Maybe he is an attention seeker, with good reason though, but for me he is a guy that is credible and trustworthy, and is very good at explaining the science to us mere humans
Yea totally agree. He has been honest and spot on with his predictions.
I like him. He has been pretty spot on on many things, without sugarcoating stuff.
- He has been warning for a pandemic for a long time, also specifically what i would look like if it started in China, and he nailed it pretty much.
- He has been warning about outsourcing medical supplies to china.
- He warned about worldwide shortage of IV bags due to 85%of the saline was made in a town in Puerto Rico. It happened.
- He said early on 800,000 deaths in the US with mitigations, and one month has given 50k deaths, there are 12-18 months left.
I have not seen him make a fool out of himself and he has been trying to wake up the world for many years now.
Maybe he is an attention seeker, with good reason though, but for me he is a guy that is credible and trustworthy, and is very good at explaining the science to us mere humans
Interestingly enough he put the death rate at between 0.5 and 1% when calculating the 800,000 deaths. It seems like a low number but a small number of a large number is a large number.
I dunno man. There are Uk reg cars and caravans in Cork and Donegal permamently. The whole thing felt a bit hysterical.
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There will be a continuous death toll but with the lockdown you will get the amount of daily deaths and new cases down. At some point you loosen the restrictions and likely get a "second wave" which really just means another great increase of new daily cases and thus daily deaths. So in between the waves the virus is never actually gone and people still die but at a far slower rate.
When everyone says Vaccine I hope you all understand that it will be a nano microchip.
Chinese company Jingye brought British Steel in March for £70m and had agreed to invest £1.2bn to revive the business, whose £1m-a-day losses have been supported by a government indemnity since last May.
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2020/mar/02/sale-british-steel-chinese-firm-jingye-finalised
https://www.theguardian.com/busines...over-jingye-promises-new-chapter-for-industry
You may be right to an extent but my cousin was one of the ones I heard from in Donegal and she was raging that there was suddenly an influx
We're waiting in Italy for the Government to make an announcement about the details of Phase 2 of the lockdown, which was expected this week (although there are of course competing interests, so no doubt there's a balancing act being considered). It looks like there will be some loosening for some industries as early as next week (the manufacturers of agricultural/forestry equipment), but it's the 4th May that will really be the start date.
Papers predict that the textile and fashion industries and construction sites will be allowed to reopen first, followed by clothing and other shops a week later, then restaurants, bars and hairdressers last of all - but all of this with strict social distancing still in place. No-one's sure of the dates yet, but the figures continue to go in the right direction so it looks hopeful.
Of course, most people are probably more interested in when they'll be able to go out of their homes freely and leave their own municipality, and whether the paperwork we have to carry now will still be required. I suspect there won't be any rapid lifting of those restrictions, but at least businesses will be able to get back to work.
(Details from thelocal.it, although widely-discussed in the Italian media, of course).
Papers predict that the textile and fashion industries and construction sites will be allowed to reopen first, followed by clothing and other shops a week later, then restaurants, bars and hairdressers last of all - but all of this with strict social distancing still in place. No-one's sure of the dates yet, but the figures continue to go in the right direction so it looks hopeful.
Of course, most people are probably more interested in when they'll be able to go out of their homes freely and leave their own municipality, and whether the paperwork we have to carry now will still be required. I suspect there won't be any rapid lifting of those restrictions, but at least businesses will be able to get back to work.
(Details from thelocal.it, although widely-discussed in the Italian media, of course).
First it was hydroxychloroquine, then remdesivir, then nicotine (in france). Now it is:
https://www.foxnews.com/media/dr-jacob-glanville-antibody-neutralize-coronavirus
Says he hopes to begin trials in September.
https://www.foxnews.com/media/dr-jacob-glanville-antibody-neutralize-coronavirus
Says he hopes to begin trials in September.
Poor feckers. Dealing with the sort of obnoxious cnuts who verbally abuse service staff would be bad enough in normal times, let alone now.
Those 'hidden defects' like cardiomyopathies etc generally tend to prevent people from reaching the absolute elite in any physically demanding sport. A colleague of mine has written a dissertation on sudden cardiac death and thinks that routine heart ultrasounds among elite athletes are somewhat off the mark, since most deaths are from myocarditis. Presumably, this guy would've been healthy if he reached the absolute top of the game, apart from non-debilitating asthma or something like that.
With the level of medical control these players are under, what's the most likely scenario? That he had some uncovered medical condition that made him vulnerable, despite playing at an elite level, or that a healthy person died from the virus? I'd guess that it's the latter. We've had a bunch of healthy people in their sixties die, so one young healthy individual dying doesn't seem so unrealistic that you'd immediately have to jump to the 'hidden condition' conclusion.
That isn't actually a bad thing. Because whatever the treatment/drug/vaccine is will take a long time to validate, so the last thing you want is to put your eggs in only a few baskets and for them to all fall apart at one stage or another.
Throwing as much shit at the wall as you can (obviously qualified scientists doing it - rather than idiots like trump with their stupid suggestions), and hoping one of them sticks is the way to go with this.
Just finished watching Contagion. Very scarily accurate.
So far I don't think there has ever been a virus that our immune system didn't respond to. There are odd edge cases e.g. HIV which attacks the immune system and Dengue fever, where a second infection sometimes occurs and is then worse than the first infection. In the later case this is not because there is a lack of immune response. It is because sometimes, much later, when a person's immunity has begin to reduce the antibodies aren't enough to defeat the virus in a second infection but do bind to it enough to help spread it. This is the only virus that we have seen this for and there is now a vaccine that will make this irrelevant anyway.
What WHO is warning against most recently is issuing certificates to people who have had COIVD as if they are immune for life before we know what the immune response actually is. A very responsible and appropriate course of action IMO.
Sarcasm?
How does a body fight off an infection without an immune response? Other than with drugs? And how do we know mild cases didn't result in an immune response?
Children will be interesting to get to the bottom of. Did they not get it at all or was the virus far less able to attack them or ??????
Why can B & Q open but garden centres can't?
I get dragged around a garden centre more often than I'd like and the ones I've been to are large establishments who'd be able to implement social distancing easily.
I get dragged around a garden centre more often than I'd like and the ones I've been to are large establishments who'd be able to implement social distancing easily.
Fair enough. I’m sure she’d know if there were any blow-ins.
Mind you, I don’t think there’s been any community acquired cases in Cork/Done
Heard someone today describe it as basically two different illnesses. The initial phase when your immune system tries to fight the virus, then a second phase (the one that can kill) when the immune system turns on itself.
Right now all the clinical trials are in very sick patients i.e. in second phase. Drugs that fail at treating second phase may still have a use earlier in the disease, to delay viral spread within your body, or reduce shedding which infects other people.
Basically, more trials needed. Three words that get repeated every time anyone discusses any treatment option.
Not all immune responses involve antibodies. Google “cell mediated immunity”.
Mild cases can test positive by PCR testing a swab, without ever generating a serological positive i.e. blood test for antibodies
Kids are an enigma. No idea if they’re avoiding infection, or shaking it off quickly.
Interesting debate! I am utterly ignorant but enjoying your posts.
I thought that while this was a primary method of removing virus infected cells that is was also accompanied by antibody production? I think I had it in my head that these both happened at the same time. One thing that gives me hope that there is an immune response is that so few reinfections have been reported. So few that they could easily all/most be false positives followed by infection or positive, false negatives (and still ill) followed by a positive test and/or immunity compromised patients.
I have it in my head that detection of antibodies can often only be possible some time after infection - I have 8 weeks in my head but no idea where that figure came from. Maybe that was detecting an adaptive response or something else?
If the mild cases are dealt with before an immune response is triggered a vaccine is even more vital (assuming we are successful).
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It was a genuine question which Pogue is now talking about.
If cell mediated immunity is fighting off without antigens being produced (and I really hope this isn't the case) we will need a vaccine to get back to normal. And countries that have let the virus go in hope of herd immunity that way will have made a very bad choice.
I don’t ever post ITK stuff, but this has been relayed to me by someone who has the inside track on this, here goes:
Oxford Vaccine trial volunteers experiencing more side effects than expected apparently. Chris Witty apparently wasn’t very optimistic about how it’s looking so far, is what I’ve been told. I’m sure this will leak eventually and honestly I’ll take a permanent ban if it turns out to be bullshit.
I’d be happy to PM the mods as to who I’ve got this from.
Oxford Vaccine trial volunteers experiencing more side effects than expected apparently. Chris Witty apparently wasn’t very optimistic about how it’s looking so far, is what I’ve been told. I’m sure this will leak eventually and honestly I’ll take a permanent ban if it turns out to be bullshit.
I’d be happy to PM the mods as to who I’ve got this from.
The area around St Johns Wood, Regents Park and Camden Town had a joyous carnival type atmosphere today. Was quite shocking, frustrating and yet predictable. It’s no wonder that UK numbers are amongst the worst in the world.
Everyone is very dismissive of China’s numbers. Let’s assume they were 100% out of actuality; fact remains they have dealt with this crisis better socially and economically than any other large populous nation. And all that without benefit of other countries experience.
I still don’t understand the UK a strategy: it’s neither a shutdown nor a herd immunity play. And the middle ground seems like the worst way to go.
What UK is doing is clearly not working, and yet the public seems docile and accepting. Don’t get it.
Where are you based? My mother works in British Garden Centres (formerly Wyevale) and they're planning to open soon. They're already doing deliveries and from next week they're planning to open up a bit more for click and collect.
I wonder if this is true? If so it is good news that 20% of NY has already produced antibodies
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/23/nyregion/coronavirus-antibodies-test-ny.html
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/23/nyregion/coronavirus-antibodies-test-ny.html
So as bad as all these trials are going, they're really for the very sick? However we could trial on the less sick and these same drugs could work?
It would then be about catching cases early enough if said trials work?
I think you have suitably warned about the source of your information. It isn't a suprise as this is what happens in trials and why we do them. It can take a while.
I think the antivirals and other already approved drugs are tending to be trialed on the worst affected but I'm assuming the vaccine trials are following normal protocols of testing on fit younger people first.
I'm based in Yorkshire.
I'm sure they'll open soon, I think a lot businesses will open soon actually. Personally I think it was a totally nonsensical bovine move to close Garden Centres to start with. It seems doubly unfair that Garden Centres are still closed whilst B & Q are opening up.
Shame if it is true, but I haven't heard anything about the other vaccines in trials (some for more than a month). At the end of the day, we need one or two vaccines, so as long as one succeeds, the others failing won't be a big problem.
Numbers match up. 0.1% of New York City citizens have died from the virus. If 20% are already infected, it means that there is a 0.5% mortality rate which seems just about right (in trut, it is probably slightly a bit higher because of under-reported deaths).
I spoke to the bank manager the other day.
He said that Burger King are planning to re-open all their outlets in a couple of weeks (he should know as the franchises in my area bank with him) and that the railways have been told to get ready to operate an increased service from early May. (Not as good a source but still fairly convincing)
The point is, it looks like we're going to have a moderate relaxation of the lockdown when this current stretch is up.
He said that Burger King are planning to re-open all their outlets in a couple of weeks (he should know as the franchises in my area bank with him) and that the railways have been told to get ready to operate an increased service from early May. (Not as good a source but still fairly convincing)
The point is, it looks like we're going to have a moderate relaxation of the lockdown when this current stretch is up.
So if you apply that maths the UK what would the infection rate be? As in how many do we expect to have been infected already?
I guess it also depends on how reliable the antibody testing is. I saw some suggestion that false positives and positives due to exposure to other coronaviruses may have confounded the results.
But if we are seeing significant antibody production this is very good news.
Yep. They're a kid who keeps coming back for extra pocket money. Bloody socialist corporations. Or something
Knowing kids they probably smoke two packs a day.
PM announced today that we'll have two more weeks of full lockdown then they will reassess. Part of me thinks he's just trying to keep the population optimistic (our population love false hope), but I think the lockdown has a while to go yet. We've managed it quite well thus far, but the fact of the matter is we simply don't have the resources to be able to deal with an exponential increase in cases as has happened in other countries, so even though it might be painful, I think our lockdown will, and SHOULD continue.