SARS CoV-2 coronavirus / Covid-19 (No tin foil hat silliness please)

One Night Only said:
So if you apply that maths the UK what would the infection rate be? As in how many do we expect to have been infected already?
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Just multiply number of deaths with 200 (if you assume 0.5% deathrate) or with 100 (if you assume 1% death rate). So probably somewhere around two to four million.
 
Cardboard elk said:
Interesting. Maybe they are still early phase. Can not fathom India not being hit hard by this there being so high density of people, million cities and 1,4b people.
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There could also be random luck involved if they managed to lock down before mass community transmission occurred. Although I fear they haven't seen the worst yet.
 
This is what I keep seeing from Germany for weeks and people there keep saying it's not German people keeping the numbers low, also illegal hairdressing salons have been raided.





I can only think of huge testing and contact tracing so those that do get tested positive take isolation seriously while others don't. If there's any hope in loose lockdowns/ light restrictions it's 100k+ a day testing and going to homes of known contacts of positives and testing them too. Meeting the virus head on instead of waiting for it to turn up at the hospital can be a way of keeping the economy going and helping not stretch the wards.
 
redshaw said:
This is what I keep seeing from Germany for weeks and people there keep saying it's not German people keeping the numbers low, also illegal hairdressing salons have been raided.





I can only think of huge testing and contact tracing so those that do get tested positive take isolation seriously while others don't. If there's any hope in loose lockdowns/ light restrictions it's 100k+ a day testing and going to homes of known contacts of positives and testing them too. Meeting the virus head on instead of waiting for it to turn up at the hospital can be a way of keeping the economy going and helping not stretch the wards.
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Bizarre behavior. Just fecking stay home.

Many Sydney beaches have been closed and reopened for exercise only a few days ago but people can't behave themselves so they are now closed again. My local go to exercise is the Bay Run around part of the harbor in Drummoyne/Lilyfield and it is almost unusable due to an influx of feckwits who can't socially distance and block the bike and walking/running lanes for everyone. Largely from other suburbs which is causing tensions especially as the response to polite requests to not walk 5 abreast is often a tirade of abuse.
 
Wibble said:
Bizarre behavior. Just fecking stay home.

Many Sydney beaches have been closed and reopened for exercise only a few days ago but people can't behave themselves so they are now closed again. My local go to exercise is the Bay Run around part of the harbor in Drummoyne/Lilyfield and it is almost unusable due to an influx of feckwits who can't socially distance and block the bike and walking/running lanes for everyone. Largely from other suburbs which is causing tensions especially as the response to polite requests to not walk 5 abreast is often a tirade of abuse.
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Just the same here on my regular running routes. Hundreds of cyclists 4 and 5 abreast giving no room to pass safely, or coming from behind only inches away. Obviously not from the same households either, so cycling together if one has the virus they all will, and their real households too. And photographers, just standing around oblivious to everyone else. So I'm off for my walk now, just as dawn is breaking.
 
711 said:
Just the same here on my regular running routes. Hundreds of cyclists 4 and 5 abreast giving no room to pass safely, or coming from behind only inches away. Obviously not from the same households either, so cycling together if one has the virus they all will, and their real households too. And photographers, just standing around oblivious to everyone else. So I'm off for my walk now, just as dawn is breaking.
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It is the walkers that are the problem in my case as there aren't that many cyclists (why I used to cycle there) but these feckwits happily block the bike and walking lanes. Twats.
 
Wibble said:
So far I don't think there has ever been a virus that our immune system didn't respond to. There are odd edge cases e.g. HIV which attacks the immune system and Dengue fever, where a second infection sometimes occurs and is then worse than the first infection. In the later case this is not because there is a lack of immune response. It is because sometimes, much later, when a person's immunity has begin to reduce the antibodies aren't enough to defeat the virus in a second infection but do bind to it enough to help spread it. This is the only virus that we have seen this for and there is now a vaccine that will make this irrelevant anyway.

What WHO is warning against most recently is issuing certificates to people who have had COIVD as if they are immune for life before we know what the immune response actually is. A very responsible and appropriate course of action IMO.
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Our immune response to this virus is what ultimately kills us.
 
Shakesey said:
Our immune response to this virus is what ultimately kills us.
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I think there is some suggestion that cytokine storm is killing some people but I think there are many other factors not immune response related - could be wrong.
 
Wibble said:
Bizarre behavior. Just fecking stay home.

Many Sydney beaches have been closed and reopened for exercise only a few days ago but people can't behave themselves so they are now closed again. My local go to exercise is the Bay Run around part of the harbor in Drummoyne/Lilyfield and it is almost unusable due to an influx of feckwits who can't socially distance and block the bike and walking/running lanes for everyone. Largely from other suburbs which is causing tensions especially as the response to polite requests to not walk 5 abreast is often a tirade of abuse.
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Telling people in the UK that they can drive to their place of exercise was a big mistake. It just moves people further into other communities. There's some vague guidance that the car journey shouldn't take longer than the exercise or something similar, but you can go a long way in 20 minutes in a car.

All these people out taking exercise - how many of them were going out for an hour just to exercise before all of this? I have a friend (70 years old, super-fit) who drives to a park and runs a 5K every morning, but she's been doing that for years so I have sympathy for her!
 
Penna said:
Telling people in the UK that they can drive to their place of exercise was a big mistake. It just moves people further into other communities. There's some vague guidance that the car journey shouldn't take longer than the exercise or something similar, but you can go a long way in 20 minutes in a car.

All these people out taking exercise - how many of them were going out for an hour just to exercise before all of this? I have a friend (70 years old, super-fit) who drives to a park and runs a 5K every morning, but she's been doing that for years so I have sympathy for her!
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The exercise should be longer than the drive was a huge balls up in terms of issued guidance. It's a 2 hour drive to Snowdonia for me and it'll take me 8 hours to climb Snowdon... So that's OK?!
 
Penna said:
Telling people in the UK that they can drive to their place of exercise was a big mistake. It just moves people further into other communities. There's some vague guidance that the car journey shouldn't take longer than the exercise or something similar, but you can go a long way in 20 minutes in a car.

All these people out taking exercise - how many of them were going out for an hour just to exercise before all of this? I have a friend (70 years old, super-fit) who drives to a park and runs a 5K every morning, but she's been doing that for years so I have sympathy for her!
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Probably quite a lot of people but they’ve been forced to do it on the streets as everything is closed or cancelled
 
What the feck difference does the time ratio of driving to exercise make? Totally stupid advice. Idiots are still entering other communities and either a) taking the virus in with them or b) leaving with the virus.

My village adjoins a national trust estate with lots of public footpaths running through and was swamped with walkers and cyclists yesterday. Me and my family are sticking inside in our home while the place is being swamped by twats coming here and acting as normal.
 
Penna said:
We're waiting in Italy for the Government to make an announcement about the details of Phase 2 of the lockdown, which was expected this week (although there are of course competing interests, so no doubt there's a balancing act being considered). It looks like there will be some loosening for some industries as early as next week (the manufacturers of agricultural/forestry equipment), but it's the 4th May that will really be the start date.

Papers predict that the textile and fashion industries and construction sites will be allowed to reopen first, followed by clothing and other shops a week later, then restaurants, bars and hairdressers last of all - but all of this with strict social distancing still in place. No-one's sure of the dates yet, but the figures continue to go in the right direction so it looks hopeful.

Of course, most people are probably more interested in when they'll be able to go out of their homes freely and leave their own municipality, and whether the paperwork we have to carry now will still be required. I suspect there won't be any rapid lifting of those restrictions, but at least businesses will be able to get back to work.

(Details from thelocal.it, although widely-discussed in the Italian media, of course).
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That's good to hear, pleased for Italy that things are slowly creeping towards this. I think a lot of people who are expecting Boris stood in front of a camera saying "LOCKDOWN IS OVER" while looking dead down the camera lens are misguided, the end of lockdown is going to come quietly, slowly and before you know it, life will look reasonably normal. I have a friend in a European capital who says that their government haven't been doing the daily briefing stuff at all and you would just go to work one morning and notice a few more shops had opened, here and there.
 
Alabaster Codify7 said:
That's good to hear, pleased for Italy that things are slowly creeping towards this. I think a lot of people who are expecting Boris stood in front of a camera saying "LOCKDOWN IS OVER" while looking dead down the camera lens are misguided, the end of lockdown is going to come quietly, slowly and before you know it, life will look reasonably normal. I have a friend in a European capital who says that their government haven't been doing the daily briefing stuff at all and you would just go to work one morning and notice a few more shops had opened, here and there.
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Kudos for not doxing that European capital.
 
Cloud7 said:
PM announced today that we'll have two more weeks of full lockdown then they will reassess. Part of me thinks he's just trying to keep the population optimistic (our population love false hope), but I think the lockdown has a while to go yet. We've managed it quite well thus far, but the fact of the matter is we simply don't have the resources to be able to deal with an exponential increase in cases as has happened in other countries, so even though it might be painful, I think our lockdown will, and SHOULD continue.
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Which PM?
 
We've been locked up with three kids for 5 weeks now. I'm going absolutely crazy now, at some point they have to open things back. My mental health will get me before this virus does.

I'm self employed and had to claim universal credit, £409 a month. The bills are starting to pile up. We can't stay at home forever. We have to just get on with it sooner or later.
 
fergies coat said:
We've been locked up with three kids for 5 weeks now. I'm going absolutely crazy now, at some point they have to open things back. My mental health will get me before this virus does.

I'm self employed and had to claim universal credit, £409 a month. The bills are starting to pile up. We can't stay at home forever. We have to just get on with it sooner or later.
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I think the Government would have known before the "lockdown" that there would be a limited amount of time that the population would tolerate it, both for economic reasons and pure and simple boredom. My guess is that the limit is probably being reached soon.
 
fergies coat said:
We've been locked up with three kids for 5 weeks now. I'm going absolutely crazy now, at some point they have to open things back. My mental health will get me before this virus does.

I'm self employed and had to claim universal credit, £409 a month. The bills are starting to pile up. We can't stay at home forever. We have to just get on with it sooner or later.
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What do you do? I'm a plumber and in a similar position.
 
fergies coat said:
We've been locked up with three kids for 5 weeks now. I'm going absolutely crazy now, at some point they have to open things back. My mental health will get me before this virus does.

I'm self employed and had to claim universal credit, £409 a month. The bills are starting to pile up. We can't stay at home forever. We have to just get on with it sooner or later.
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By the way, surely you should be getting more than £409 a month UC with three kids?
 
Sparky Rhiwabon said:
I think the Government would have known before the "lockdown" that there would be a limited amount of time that the population would tolerate it, both for economic reasons and pure and simple boredom. My guess is that the limit is probably being reached soon.
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Yeah they will have consulted the top bods from all areas and asked "what is the maximum amount of time we can do this before we start entering irreversible territory" both financially and in terms of people's mental state.
 
Sparky Rhiwabon said:
By the way, surely you should be getting more than £409 a month UC with three kids?
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She is my ex partner. I live about an hour away from the kids. We thought it would be better for them if I stayed here during lock down instead of taking them back and forth.

I can't afford the petrol to be driving back and forth anyway, and shopping to feed them. Not on £409 per month.
 
Decided to walk to the local shop instead of drive but a team of joggers ruined it on the walk back. Luckily I could hear the slap of their heavy feet coming up behind, about 6 adults in single file, instead of hoping they would leave enough space I crossed over, didn't fancy being in their wake even if outside with all six passing one by one, this is up hill as well, all of them breathing and sweating heavily. Pity the old folk walking around, I'm sure they run around them by a metre or two but I don't think it's wise or respectful to be in a line of six passing everyone. Safe to say it'll be the car next time.
 
Cloud7 said:
PM announced today that we'll have two more weeks of full lockdown then they will reassess. Part of me thinks he's just trying to keep the population optimistic (our population love false hope), but I think the lockdown has a while to go yet. We've managed it quite well thus far, but the fact of the matter is we simply don't have the resources to be able to deal with an exponential increase in cases as has happened in other countries, so even though it might be painful, I think our lockdown will, and SHOULD continue.
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You're not the only one, I believe all nations (bar the crazy US) employs this tactics of gradually extending the lockout.

Seen nothing wrong with it, if it helps keeps the masses calm and hopeful it's a good thing.
 
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