SARS CoV-2 coronavirus / Covid-19 (No tin foil hat silliness please)

[Zexstream]

I think it is just WHO being cautious after repeatedly fecking up earlier. There is a lot of indication that people who have got infected will have some immunity (at least short to mid-term).

Sorry, are you suggesting WHO have it wrong and you know better?

 

[JMack1234]

WHO have already said there is no indication that those previously infected have immunity from this. Whose to say a 2nd infection wont be worse!

Are you prepared to be a Guinea pig?

We're all Guinea pigs.

This is a brand new virus and experts are flummoxed. We're all flying blind here.

I want a fulllock down until the lives of the public can be protected.

Anything else is wrong.

We also dont know who the vulnerable are, who knows if they havevunderlying medical conditions?

Even A cut in your finger puts pressure on your immune system!

An admirable but criminally naive position

We're not locking down until we get a vaccine. So go upstairs. Hunt for your grown up pants. The take part in the conversation about how we reach the optimal middle ground between lockdown and vaccine.

The economy simply cannot cope with a full lockdown until we get a vaccine. Get over it.

 

[Wibble]

So you want full lockdown until we get a vaccine?

That's an admirable intention but it's a folly to seriously believe in.

So how about we grow up? Then talk about a sensible exit plan that'll protect the old and vulnerable?

A gradual loosening of restrictions may be possible but certainly not now. Otherwise you will be back to square one and have to fully lock down again. Especially in countries like the US and UK who have done such a bad job to date.

 

[Revan]

Sorry, are you suggesting WHO have it wrong and you know better?

More or less. Same as when I suggested that using masks actually helps. Or banning people from travelling from hot zones helps (two common sense things that WHO categorically denied).

But being more serious and more precise, the closest disease to this has been SARS, and the antibodies remained in infected people for around 3 years. For MERS (another novel coronavirus, the next most similar thing to this), the antibodies were detected for around one year. For human coronaviruses, the antibodies get detected from a few months to a few years after the infection. So, there is plenty to suggest that there will be some immunity.

When WHO is being cautious what they are really saying is that 'there is no definite proof that the antibodies will stay for some time for everyone - cause you know, there has not bee some time since people get infected and healed - and even if that is the case, we do not know for how long they will be effective'. Nevertheless, Chinese studies showed around 70-80% of healed patients had enough antibodies after being healed (though obviously there are still some unknowns). However, with this behaving similar to SARS, I guess it is likely that we will have some immunity after infection, though it might not be for a long time, and almost certainly won't be lifelong immunity.

 

[Zexstream]

We're all Guinea pigs.

This is a brand new virus and experts are flummoxed. We're all flying blind here.



An admirable but criminally naive position

We're not locking down until we get a vaccine. So go upstairs. Hunt for your grown up pants. The take part in the conversation about how we reach the optimal middle ground between lockdown and vaccine.

The economy simply cannot cope with a full lockdown until we get a vaccine. Get over it.

The economy will suffer more when inevitably we see a 2nd spike which has the potential to be worse.

We know nothing about this virus, taking a leap of faith and hopping for the best is foolish.

 

[JMack1234]

A gradual loosening of restrictions may be possible but certainly not now. Otherwise you will be back to square one and have to fully lock down again. Especially in countries like the US and UK who have done such a bad job to date.

I'm not saying now. The UK is in lockdown for the three weeks at least.

However, no serious person believes that the UK can stay languishing in our current state indefinitely.

So we need to be grown and discuss what's next.

It's really not that hard.

 

[Wibble]

Sorry, are you suggesting WHO have it wrong and you know better?

There is lots of evidence that antibodies are produced that will give immunity. How long that immunity will last is unknown and can be quite variable with viruses. I'd say WHO are just being cautious because people think it is a given that we can make a vaccine.

 

[Zexstream]

More or less. Same as when I suggested that using masks actually helps. Or banning people from travelling from hot zones helps (two common sense things that WHO categorically denied).

But being more serious and more precise, the closest disease to this has been SARS, and the antibodies remained in infected people for around 3 years. For MERS (another novel coronavirus, the next most similar thing to this), the antibodies were detected for around one year. For human coronaviruses, the antibodies get detected from a few months to a few years after the infection. So, there is plenty to suggest that there will be some immunity.

When WHO is being cautious what they are really saying is that 'there is no definite proof that the antibodies will stay for some time for everyone - cause you know, there has not bee some time since people get infected and healed - and even if that is the case, we do not know for how long they will be effective'. Nevertheless, Chinese studies showed around 70-80% of healed patients had enough antibodies after being healed (though obviously there are still some unknowns). However, with this behaving similar to SARS, I guess it is likely that we will have some immunity after infection, though it might not be for a long time, and almost certainly won't be lifelong immunity.

What are your qualifications to make such assumptions.

Im sorry, but id rather take advice from the experts, who right now say there is no evidence to support any immunity to the virus.

 

[Zexstream]

There is lots of evidence that antibodies are produced that will give immunity. How long that immunity will last is unknown and can be quite variable with viruses. I'd say WHO are just being cautious because people think it is a given that we can make a vaccine.

They are the experts not you, why should we now ignore the experts?

Too many iffs, maybes etc

This is why its foolish to remove any lockdowns until we know more.

 

[Wibble]

I'm not saying now. The UK is in lockdown for the three weeks at least.

However, no serious person believes that the UK can stay languishing in our current state indefinitely.

So we need to be grown and discuss what's next.

It's really not that hard.

The down side is that discussing it makes it seem imminent, which it shouldn't be. The up side is it gives people a view of the other side. A couple of months more at a minimum in the hardest hit countries isn't unlikely.

 

[JMack1234]

The economy will suffer more when inevitably we see a 2nd spike which has the potential to be worse.

We know nothing about this virus, taking a leap of faith and hopping for the best is foolish.

Listen, I'm not advocating going back to normal in three weeks.

However we need to get serious. We're not lockingdown until we get vaccine. So we're going to enter limbo sooner rather than later. Which will be a 'new normal'. The discussion has to be about what that new normal is.

 

[Wibble]

What are your qualifications to make such assumptions.

Im sorry, but id rather take advice from the experts, who right now say there is no evidence to support any immunity to the virus.

How do you think people are getting better if there aren't any antibodies produced in response to infection?

 

[Zexstream]

Recovered coronavirus patients are testing positive again.


https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.cn...avirus-retesting-positive-intl-hnk/index.html

 

[Wibble]

They are the experts not you, why should we now ignore the experts?

Too many iffs, maybes etc

This is why its foolish to remove any lockdowns until we know more.

I am not advocating for removing lockdowns. But there is lots of evidence that antibodies are produced that produce an immune response. That makes it likely, but not certain, that a vaccine can be made that will give us immunity for an undetermined period.

The most likely sub-optimal outcome is that we can develop a vaccine but that it fails safety testing.

 

[Zexstream]

How do you think people are getting better if there aren't any antibodies produced in response to infection?

Only 25% of those infected have recovered though, now we are seeing 2nd infections of those who recovered.

 

[Revan]

What are your qualifications to make such assumptions.

Im sorry, but id rather take advice from the experts, who right now say there is no evidence to support any immunity to the virus.

Have you read what did the experts say, or you are going by belief cause of authority?

Obviously, the experts cannot say that there is definite proof that this virus offers immunity for at least X months to at least Y percentage of people, where there haven't passed X months and there are no available antigen tests to do mass testing. As scientists, they are being cautious. And political obviously, for having fecked this up.

WHO also said that the death rate is 3.4% which looks quite laughable and an extreme conservative estimation.

 

[JMack1234]

The down side is that discussing it makes it seem imminent, which it shouldn't be. The up side is it gives people a view of the other side. A couple of months more at a minimum in the hardest hit countries isn't unlikely.

It's not immanent.

Everyone knows that UK is keeping the restrictions for the next three weeks and the lockdown currently enjoys a seismic level of public support so we are were we are.

However, we won't be here for ever. It's impossible to impose a lockdown on a people who don't want to be confined to their home. So it's imperative that the government formulate an exit plan the public can believe in and I'm not alone in thinking that. A certain Prof Ferguson agrees with me.

So again, lets get serious and discuss what post lockdown limbo we'll be cool with,

 

[Zexstream]

Have you read what did the experts say, or you are going by belief cause of authority?

Obviously, the experts cannot say that there is definite proof that this virus offers immunity for at least X months to at least Y percentage of people, where there haven't passed X months and there are no available antigen tests to do mass testing. As scientists, they are being cautious. And political obviously, for having fecked this up.

WHO also said that the death rate is 3.4% which looks quite laughable and an extreme conservative estimation.

The death rate is low because the lockdowns are working.

Its still higher than flu.

 

[Revan]

Only 25% of those infected have recovered though, now we are seeing 2nd infections of those who recovered.

Because the vast majority of them have been recently infected, so there has not been enough time to be recovered.

What is interesting is to suggest that there won't be any immunity after infection, while suggesting that somehow a vaccine might exist under those circumstances. If antibodies are not created (or last), then how is exactly a vaccine going to work?!

 

[Wibble]

Recovered coronavirus patients are testing positive again.


https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.cn...avirus-retesting-positive-intl-hnk/index.html

1) False positives in the first test and then people actually became infected with SARS-CoV-2
2) A false positive the second time
3) Compromised immune system so can become infected again.
4) Didn't fully recover the first time so seemed to get better but then it flared up again - not a second infection.

If there are only 163 instance of possible re-infection then that is a very small proportion and the vast majority will be one of the things I listed above (and other possibilities I didn't think of).

 

[Wibble]

Because the vast majority of them have been recently infected, so there has not been enough time to be recovered.

What is interesting is to suggest that there won't be any immunity after infection, while suggesting that somehow a vaccine might exist under those circumstances. If antibodies are not created (or last), then how is exactly a vaccine going to work?!

Yes. And how did people recover if they didn't produce antibodies?

 

[Revan]

The death rate is low because the lockdowns are working.

Its still higher than flu.

What has the death rate to do with the lockdown (sure, if the medical system fails, then the death rate increases, probably at twice or so cause those who need ventilators die, but at the same time roughly half of them that need ventilators die anyway)?

The lockdown means that less people get infected, thus less deaths, not that magically the death rate goes down.

It is very likely higher than that of flu, though it is probably 3-6 times higher, rather than WHO's 34 times higher.

 

[Ian Reus]

Recovered coronavirus patients are testing positive again.


https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.cn...avirus-retesting-positive-intl-hnk/index.html

If you read the article, you'd realise you were typing in too big and too bold a font at the time.

 

[Revan]

1) False positives in the first test and then people actually became infected with SARS-CoV-2
2) A false positive the second time
3) Compromised immune system so can become infected again.
4) Didn't fully recover the first time so seemed to get better but then it flared up again - not a second infection.

If there are only 163 instance of possible re-infection then that is a very small proportion and the vast majority will be one of the things I listed above (and other possibilities I didn't think of).

Additionally, they seem to not be contagious, with 44% of them having mild symptoms and the remaining no symptoms. Which most likely means that they were not entirely healed, so the first test was a false negative (aka, tested negative but they still had the virus on their body).

 

[caid]

I don't disagree but the point about low pay in the care home scenario is that these workers end up being in a multiple facilities, which increases the likelihood that COIVD19 will enter multiple facilities.

These facilities are high risk for respiratory outbreaks at the best of times so it's not surprising that they've been hit hard by this but if PSWs were able to subsist by working at only one facility it would reduce the risk and impact of this kind of outbreak.

I usually volunteer at such a place and they went into a staff only lockdown a week before they closed schools here. They're careful but the rotation of staff is a big gap.

Would there not be an element of a problem with a supermarket worker in the same vein? Having a second job would be fairly standard fare for them (maybe working in a care home) and you have the same individuals in two vulnerable environments for spreading it?
I get what you saying separate to my point. Is there any particular reason they dont work more hours in the one faciilty rather than spreading them across two?

 

[Wibble]

Virus did not originate from a lab in Wuhan

https://www.sydney.edu.au/news-opin...professor-edward-holmes-sars-cov-2-virus.html

 

[caid]

I'm not saying now. The UK is in lockdown for the three weeks at least.

However, no serious person believes that the UK can stay languishing in our current state indefinitely.

So we need to be grown and discuss what's next.

It's really not that hard.

When you have the facilities for testing and contact tracing, ideally getting the infection levels as low as possible in the mean time to facilitate that.
So if you open childcare or schools for instance you know from testing what effect its having. Maybe you expect the infection rate is going to be pretty bad but for whatever reason its not and it lets you know you can widen the lifting of restrictions. Or you realise its far worse than you expected and you reinstate the lock before it gets out of control and you have nationwide lockdown again and find an alternative way to manage.
There'll probably be a bit of back and forth and experimenting for a while - but you'll have dozens of countries testing different strategies and i think we'll figure out a way to manage it before too long.

 

[Wibble]

This is a brand new virus and experts are flummoxed. We're all flying blind here.

It is a novel virus but we aren't flying blind and experts aren't flummoxed.

 

[Sky1981]

@Sky1981 predicted WWIII earlier, so maybe we are all doomed.

Who knows. The EU was murdering one another less than a century ago. The US and Germany are now ally.

 

[Dr. Dwayne]

Would there not be an element of a problem with a supermarket worker in the same vein? Having a second job would be fairly standard fare for them (maybe working in a care home) and you have the same individuals in two vulnerable environments for spreading it?
I get what you saying separate to my point. Is there any particular reason they dont work more hours in the one faciilty rather than spreading them across two?

I'd say it's less likely with the supermarket job because employers can hire anyone for that role. PSWs need at least some training or experience as well as a police background check so that limits who can do that work.

Overtime rules might play a factor in keeping people from working more hours at one facility. It could also be scheduling. However they are scheduled and paid, though, it's clearly not enough as not many people are eager to work more than 40 hours a week if they can help it.

 

[Ludens the Red]

I'm not saying now. The UK is in lockdown for the three weeks at least.

However, no serious person believes that the UK can stay languishing in our current state indefinitely.

So we need to be grown and discuss what's next.

It's really not that hard.

The problem is when you actually sit down and think about things, and this is going to be negative ... but people are fecked as in seriously fecked.

everything is actually a lose lose situation. It's like a script from a saw movie.

Say we go for 'gradual lockdown release' if we loosen restrictions, no mass gatherings etc. yeah sure kids are back in school, some businesses open up again. But then what about all the businesses that require 'mass gatherings' to basically function .
The businesses that require huge numbers of staffing levels, what happens to these staff members when the furlough inevitably stops and if it doesn't, who is paying for it?

There's a gigantic domino effect - less people spending money - less revenue- staff cuts. You're talking thousand upon thousands of working class people left jobless and unable to feed their families.

If you come out of lockdown and go for Belarus mode. People are gonna drop like flies. Nhs will be fecked.

Other option, completely restrict the elderly and those with health conditions from leaving their home.
You're basically imprisoning a large portion of the country.

Or option four, Pogues theory of the human race being wiped out.

Yeah we're fecked. But at least Liverpool probably won't win the league. And even if they do there'll be no fans there to see it.

 

[Dancfc]

I want a fulllock down until the lives of the public can be protected.

A full long term lockdown doesn't protect the lives of the public, unless you think people can feed their kids on monopoly money?

 

[Organic Potatoes]

He is a historicist I'd say. Most Christians think apocalyptic literature like Revelations is allegorical - symbolic of a struggle between good and evil. Historicists vary but many think it is predictive of future events. They also like the number 7 a great deal. And the 4th Horseman of the apocalypse is means to be death/plague. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Historicist_interpretations_of_the_Book_of_Revelation

There will be loads of trying to align words in revelations with current events but essentially revelations predicts a plague and Covid-19 is a plague. QED.

Can sort of confirm. Family that belongs to a sola scriptura type Christian faith are begging me to come back to the congregation. They think this is a sign, ignoring all the times the end-of-days predictions have been wrong before. But they‘re intent to line this up with the book of Revelations, along with other tidbits from Daniel, Isaiah, and others from the Prophets.

Combine that with people showing up to state government houses in the US with AR-15s, and it’s getting weird out there.

 

[Dancfc]

WHO have already said there is no indication that those previously infected have immunity from this. Whose to say a 2nd infection wont be worse!

Are you prepared to be a Guinea pig?

Even if this virus ran free 250k out of a population of 66.6m in the UK were projected to die. Even in those circumstances the odds are still in any one person's favour.

 

[Wibble]

Can sort of confirm. Family that belongs to a sola scriptura type Christian faith are begging me to come back to the congregation. They think this is a sign, ignoring all the times the end-of-days predictions have been wrong before. But they‘re intent to line this up with the book of Revelations, along with other tidbits from Daniel, Isaiah, and others from the Prophets.

Combine that with people showing up to state government houses in the US with AR-15s, and it’s getting weird out there.

I wonder why Covid-19 isn't just killing sinners as the rightous are meant to be left alone in the end of days?

 

[Wibble]

You have to have community transmission under control before you lift restrictions otherwise you will have to start full restrictions again very soon and extend the economic problems not reduce them.

Even here in Australia where we are doing better than all but NZ we aren't considering any change for another 4 weeks with no guarantees we will change much even then. A good decision because we have R below 1 in all states but Tasmania (despite them being more locked down than other states) but it doesn't take much to cause a jump in R. Once we get community transmission under control and hopefully see a further decrease in cases then maybe we can look at reducing restrictions.

What is certain is that when we reduce restrictions it is going to have to be a slow step by step process with trail and error involved. And then if monitoring suggest we went to fats things will have to change back quickly. This could take months and some restrictions may remain much longer term.

 

[sammsky1]

Guardian/Observer has also gone big on a investigative report about UK unpreparedness today.

Equally damning of Johnson led Conservative Government as they report virtually the same as the Sunday Times piece.

 

[Lj82]

Seems to me that Covid-19 should have been absolutely tearing through South America, sub-Saharan Africa and tropical Asia by now. I know numbers may be dodgy and all that, but surely we’d be hearing of major outbreaks by now if this virus is as potent in tropical climates as in more temperate regions? Or maybe I’m missing some major news.

It's raging in Singapore. I really don't see how the weather affects it

 

[Revan]

You have to have community transmission under control before you lift restrictions otherwise you will have to start full restrictions again very soon and extend the economic problems not reduce them.

Even here in Australia where we are doing better than all but NZ we aren't considering any change for another 4 weeks with no guarantees we will change much even then. A good decision because we have R below 1 in all states but Tasmania (despite them being more locked down than other states) but it doesn't take much to cause a jump in R. Once we get community transmission under control and hopefully see a further decrease in cases then maybe we can look at reducing restrictions.

What is certain is that when we reduce restrictions it is going to have to be a slow step by step process with trail and error involved. And then if monitoring suggest we went to fats things will have to change back quickly. This could take months and some restrictions may remain much longer term.

Opening without having community transmission under control is madness. And you cannot have it under control when there are hundreds of thousands of people infected, but just a few tens of thousands of tests per day (most Western countries).

In all honestly, the lockdown should last until the end of next month at earliest, and the number of tests should significantly increase, while also start doing tracing and quarantining.

 

[Shakesy]

The economy will suffer more when inevitably we see a 2nd spike which has the potential to be worse.

We know nothing about this virus, taking a leap of faith and hopping for the best is foolish.

At least all of us can see how China fares in reopening the economy. Any vicious second wave will warn the others not to come out of lockdown too soon. Then there are Italy, Spain and Germany. In fact, my country (SA) can learn from Asia, Europe and the US.