SARS CoV-2 coronavirus / Covid-19 (No tin foil hat silliness please)

Telegraph: 7,500 feared to have died of coronavirus in UK care homes

'Care England data suggests fatalities are five times higher than official figures show

The number of care home residents who have died of suspected coronavirus may have reached 7,500, according to the latest estimate, The Telegraph has learned.

New data collated by Care England, the country's largest representative body for care homes, suggests the number of deaths from Covid-19 is far higher than its previous estimate of 1,400 from earlier this week.

The number is also far in advance of the official figure from the Office for National Statistics (ONS), which has recorded 217 care home deaths from the virus up to April 3 – the most recent date for which official data is available.

However, as the Government published its daily update on coronavirus hospital deaths on Friday, which showed a rise to 14,576, it emerged that the death toll in UK care homes is suspected to be much bigger than previously feared.

Professor Martin Green, the chief executive of Care England, told The Telegraph that around 7,500 people may have died in care homes as a result of the virus.

"Without testing, it is very difficult to give an absolute figure," he said. "However, if we look at some of the death rates since April 1 and compare them with previous years' rates, we estimate a figure of about 7,500 people may have died as a result of Covid-19."

Care England, which represents around 3,800 homes and more than 50,000 residents, gathered data by "taking a sounding" from its homes.'
Has Government committed to a date when it will add care home deaths to hospital deaths? Or is this always going to be an asterisk?
 
The vaccine will be the special part.
Why is more special than that of smallpox when the entire world got vaccinated and the disease got removed from the face of earth?

btw, that disease had killed a few hundred million only in the 20th century.
 
couldn’t it be more deadly or even evolve in places with poor conditions such as parts of India, Africa etc

It could be more deadly if there are conditions where people live in close proximity and/or poor hygeine exists, especially if medical resources are limited or overwhelmed.

The virus isn't mutating very fast by RNA virus standards at the moment but viruses do tend to evolve at a very high rate. I'm not an expert so I'm only repeating my limited knowledge, so I may well be wrong about certain thjngs.

There are various ways that a virus evolves and changes but what we are talking about here is antigen drift.

RNA viruses like this Coronavirus can mutate fast, which is an advantage (to them) because immunity will last a shorter time and/or be less complete and allows them to spread. The disadvantage is that the majority of changes aren't a benefit and/or make the virus operate worse/not at all so don't proliferate and/or aren't replicated. One side effect is that vaccination programs tend to speed up evolution as the vaccine will target the main strain(s) so the more a strain varies the better it will avoid the immune response a vaccine results in, and that now better adapted strain will proliferate and become the main strain.

As viruses (like parasites) want to spread as fast as possible but with as little damage to their host as possible (a dead host doesn't spread a virus very far) viruses often evolve to be less harmful to their hosts over time. As this Coronavirus is spreading pretty damn well at the moment I'd guess that there isn't much selection pressure for change at the moment, so evolution will be slow (and the evidence so far confirms this) but there will be pressure if/when a vaccine is rolled out. There is no guarantee that the virus will become less harmful at the same time as we head towards herd immunity, but it is quite possible.

Becoming more damaging to their hosts is possible but rare and when it does occur it is likely through another method like antigen shift, which occurs when 2 strains of a virus (or potentially 2 different viruses) recombine. This sort of recombination is likely involved in the creation of this SARS-Co-2 virus that has caused COVID-19.
 
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Has Government committed to a date when it will add care home deaths to hospital deaths? Or is this always going to be an asterisk?

I'm guessing they won't. They'll make sure those who died in care homes, aren't tested retrospectively to find out the cause.
 
Sunday Times revelations quite damning about the impact austerity has had on the response to the coronavirus crisis, especially in regards to PPE resources and planning for such crises. Yet we had the blind cheerleaders on here denying austerity in the NHS even happened and playing dumb about the impact such a policy could have on a healthcare system’s ability to respond to a pandemic.
 
It's also really similar to the script of Outbreak, starring Dustin Hoffman(also fiction).

No Contagion, now that really messed my head up when watching it the other day.

It's almost like they scripted this whole event ten years ago!!!

You gotta love the god squad though, my cousins wife has spent the last four weeks posting stuff about the world coming to an end and it's gods doing. She then wonders why her daughters heads messed up and getting picked on at school.

How she not gonna be messed up if your mums a religious nutter.
 
I am not going to try come back on this, for I have already said my piece.

You've stated that their is great similarity to the current situation and Revelations, with it being impossible to deny. Can you not give us a couple of points as to why you think they're linked? From memory, I can't think of anything even a little identifiable, but I can't remember it at all so I'm genuinely curious.

Sunday Times revelations quite damning about the impact austerity has had on the response to the coronavirus crisis, especially in regards to PPE resources and planning for such crises. Yet we had the blind cheerleaders on here denying austerity in the NHS even happened and playing dumb about the impact such a policy could have on a healthcare system’s ability to respond to a pandemic.

I don't think now is the current time for politics. We can revisit the situation in 20 years time but no earlier out of respect for the victims. In the mean time, feel free to spend the next two decades clapping for Boris and/or healthcare workers
 
Am I alone in thinking that may is far too soon to lift the lockdown? France and Spain are just asking for a second spike at this point, or is there data to suggest that enough people have been infected and are now immune?
 
Am I alone in thinking that may is far too soon to lift the lockdown? France and Spain are just asking for a second spike at this point, or is there data to suggest that enough people have been infected and are now immune?
Without testing and appropriate isolation I don't see how May works. Even from just from the view of public confidence. Then start considering the vulnerable. It's going to be a mess.
 
You've stated that their is great similarity to the current situation and Revelations, with it being impossible to deny. Can you not give us a couple of points as to why you think they're linked? From memory, I can't think of anything even a little identifiable, but I can't remember it at all so I'm genuinely curious.

He is a historicist I'd say. Most Christians think apocalyptic literature like Revelations is allegorical - symbolic of a struggle between good and evil. Historicists vary but many think it is predictive of future events. They also like the number 7 a great deal. And the 4th Horseman of the apocalypse is means to be death/plague. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Historicist_interpretations_of_the_Book_of_Revelation

There will be loads of trying to align words in revelations with current events but essentially revelations predicts a plague and Covid-19 is a plague. QED.
 
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Am I alone in thinking that may is far too soon to lift the lockdown? France and Spain are just asking for a second spike at this point, or is there data to suggest that enough people have been infected and are now immune?

Well....

Unless you lockdown until we have a vaccine you're asking for a second spike. In the UK we've currently got millions of people, with no immunity, getting more unhealthy due to being stuck indoors who are asking to get infected as soon as we end the lockdown. Which any intelligent person acknowledges will slowly begin to lift in three weeks. As the economy cannot take much more.

Government is going to pour every possible resource into formulating a plan that ends the lockdown but doesn't overwhelm the NHS as that's the only sane and sensible way of dealing with this.

We have to grow up and accept that people will be dying of COVID-19 until we get a vaccine and it's as simple as that.
 
Without testing and appropriate isolation I don't see how May works. Even from just from the view of public confidence. Then start considering the vulnerable. It's going to be a mess.

When you pump fear into a public it's almost possible to extract.

The elderly and vulnerable are going to have to make choice this year. They are either going to have to isolate completely or take the mortal risk of exiting their home. As we're not locking down until we get a vaccine.
 
When you pump fear into a public it's almost possible to extract.

The elderly and vulnerable are going to have to make choice this year. They are either going to have to isolate completely or take the mortal risk of exiting their home. As we're not locking down until we get a vaccine.
Consider family visits as well and how to handle.
 
When you pump fear into a public it's almost possible to extract.

The elderly and vulnerable are going to have to make choice this year. They are either going to have to isolate completely or take the mortal risk of exiting their home. As we're not locking down until we get a vaccine.
So we are just going to sacrifice the old and vulnerable.

NOT THE SOCIETY i want to be part off.
 
Lack of pay and other benefits seems to be a problem across industries at the moment. Its hard to see a compelling reason for someone stacking shelves in a supermarket to go into work with no protection at the moment beyond financial desperation. Same for warehouse workers, public bus drivers, even nurses. They dont get paid anywhere near enough relative to the risks they're taking to keep us from all sorts of nightmare scenarios. Large parts of our necessities are built on poverty and desperation which doesn't strike me as a particularly stable system

I don't disagree but the point about low pay in the care home scenario is that these workers end up being in a multiple facilities, which increases the likelihood that COIVD19 will enter multiple facilities.

These facilities are high risk for respiratory outbreaks at the best of times so it's not surprising that they've been hit hard by this but if PSWs were able to subsist by working at only one facility it would reduce the risk and impact of this kind of outbreak.

I usually volunteer at such a place and they went into a staff only lockdown a week before they closed schools here. They're careful but the rotation of staff is a big gap.
 
Lifting the lockdowns now will only give us short term gain and make things worse long term.

Of all those currently infected in the world only 25% have recovered!



Some 25 percent of coronavirus patients worldwide have become better, according to the Johns Hopkins Center for Systems Science and Engineering live tracker.

The tracker shows that of the 2,167,955 confirmed cases around the globe, 146,055 have died while 550,987 recovered.

That leaves 1,470,913 - or 67 percent - still sick.

That also means 6.7 percent of patients have died from the virus.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.ex...ve-recovered-from-coronavirus-news-latest/amp
 
Lifting the lockdowns now will only give us short term gain and make things worse long term.

Of all those currently infected in the world only 25% have recovered!



Some 25 percent of coronavirus patients worldwide have become better, according to the Johns Hopkins Center for Systems Science and Engineering live tracker.

The tracker shows that of the 2,167,955 confirmed cases around the globe, 146,055 have died while 550,987 recovered.

That leaves 1,470,913 - or 67 percent - still sick.

That also means 6.7 percent of patients have died from the virus.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.ex...ve-recovered-from-coronavirus-news-latest/amp

Nonsense of a stat.

Take the UK. We've no idea how many people in the UK have actually had the virus because the majority of people who get the virus don't get sick enough to require hospital treatment so don't get tested.

Engage your brain for Christ sake.
 
So we are just going to sacrifice the old and vulnerable.

NOT THE SOCIETY i want to be part off.

So you want full lockdown until we get a vaccine?

That's an admirable intention but it's a folly to seriously believe in.

So how about we grow up? Then talk about a sensible exit plan that'll protect the old and vulnerable?
 
Nonsense of a stat.

Take the UK. We've no idea how many people in the UK have actually had the virus because the majority of people who get the virus don't get sick enough to require hospital treatment so don't get tested.

Engage your brain for Christ sake.
WHO have already said there is no indication that those previously infected have immunity from this. Whose to say a 2nd infection wont be worse!

Are you prepared to be a Guinea pig?
 
I am not going to try come back on this, for I have already said my piece.
You didn't reply to my post, on why this time is different (the sign which is the vaccine) compared to the smallpox vaccine where everyone got vaccinated?
 
So you want full lockdown until we get a vaccine?

That's an admirable intention but it's a folly to seriously believe in.

So how about we grow up? Then talk about a sensible exit plan that'll protect the old and vulnerable?
I want a fulllock down until the lives of the public can be protected.

Anything else is wrong.

We also dont know who the vulnerable are, who knows if they havevunderlying medical conditions?

Even A cut in your finger puts pressure on your immune system!
 
WHO have already said there is no indication that those previously infected have immunity from this. Whose to say a 2nd infection wont be worse!

Are you prepared to be a Guinea pig?
I think it is just WHO being cautious after repeatedly fecking up earlier. There is a lot of indication that people who have got infected will have some immunity (at least short to mid-term).
 
Consider family visits as well and how to handle.

it's a nightmare.

I don't envy those who are tasked to make these decisions.

However since no one with serviceable grey matter believes we're in lockdown until we get a vaccine, we need to put on our grown up pants and make these big decisions.

How we're managing the period between lockdown and vaccine is an enormous decision and I'm afraid we can do relatively little to influence our decision makers. We just have to trust whatever they decide and be ready to punish them at the ballot box if they make a mistake.