SARS CoV-2 coronavirus / Covid-19 (No tin foil hat silliness please)

The clamour for a relaxation in the lockdown will build as the death rate falls but the new infections rate will probably rise based on the increase in tests numbers. How should we decide when to loosen the lockdown?

Should we loosen the lockdown when the NHS feels it has increased its capacity to deal with more patients? They seem to be increasing the number of beds with the new Nightingale Hospitals opening up. I don't understand why they are still increasing capacity when its beginning to look like the death rate may be falling.
 
blue blue said:
The clamour for a relaxation in the lockdown will build as the death rate falls but the new infections rate will probably rise based on the increase in tests numbers. How should we decide when to loosen the lockdown?

Should we loosen the lockdown when the NHS feels it has increased its capacity to deal with more patients? They seem to be increasing the number of beds with the new Nightingale Hospitals opening up. I don't understand why they are still increasing capacity when its beginning to look like the death rate may be falling.
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Well there's no easy answer but lockdown essentially was to prevent the NHS from becoming overwhelmed. So that will have the final say, whenever the government feels they are adequately on top of the situation.
 
blue blue said:
The clamour for a relaxation in the lockdown will build as the death rate falls but the new infections rate will probably rise based on the increase in tests numbers. How should we decide when to loosen the lockdown?

Should we loosen the lockdown when the NHS feels it has increased its capacity to deal with more patients? They seem to be increasing the number of beds with the new Nightingale Hospitals opening up. I don't understand why they are still increasing capacity when its beginning to look like the death rate may be falling.
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The government is in a corner here.

The Lockdown was implemented to stop the NHS being overwhelmed and to buy the health service valuable time to build some capacity. It's fair to say it's been a success on both counts.

However, they need a way out of it. The economic consequences are absolutely catastrophic, plus there is a plethora of other health and social issues that arise from lockdown. So the government need to get us out of this sooner rather than later. However, the public is pumped full of fear and it'll probably take a vaccine before the public start going about their lives as normal.

Either way it's imperative that the government come out with an exit plan as quickly as possible. If the government keep treating the exit plan as some sort of state secret. Many in the population may start losing confidence that the government know how to get out of it,.

So we're in trouble basically.
 
stepic said:
it doesn't matter. there's just no need to even be discussing the end of humanity ffs. there are a lot of people who are already stressed and worried out about things, alarmist views like that (even if they are qualified by 'it's unlikely') just serve no use at all.
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I don’t think anything in this thread serves any use. We’re all just shooting the breeze. I think we should be allowed to discuss worst case scenarios without the need for some sort of trigger warning.
 
JMack1234 said:
However, the public is pumped full of fear and it'll probably take a vaccine before the public start going about their lives as normal
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i don't think this is the case. as soon as things are loosened (in a phased capacity I'm sure), people will take advantage.
 
New cases down in Italy again but I expect that number to increase in the next few days. Slightly more deaths but that number probably correlates to the cases a week or two ago.
 
Alabaster Codify7 said:
Well there's no easy answer but lockdown essentially was to prevent the NHS from becoming overwhelmed. So that will have the final say, whenever the government feels they are adequately on top of the situation.
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There will be an end to this but I fear our Government are preparing for a long tail off in cases. They can gradually start releasing certain containment measures and potentially calibrate the number of cases by doing so.

I'm not so sure I'm being overly cynical here but they may be increasing the number of field hospitals and boosting NHS capacity to allow more cases in the coming weeks and months to allow them to open up the economy. Why else are they increasing capacity when it looks like the numbers are slowing down a bit?
 
Belgian lockdown extended until May 3. No major events like festivals allowed until August 31.
 
blue blue said:
There will be an end to this but I fear our Government are preparing for a long tail off in cases. They can gradually start releasing certain containment measures and potentially calibrate the number of cases by doing so.

I'm not so sure I'm being overly cynical here but they may be increasing the number of field hospitals and boosting NHS capacity to allow more cases in the coming weeks and months to allow them to open up the economy. Why else are they increasing capacity when it looks like the numbers are slowing down a bit?
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But maybe someone like @PogueMahone will correct me if I'm wrong, but there's almost no reason for them not to do that. We can't get back on top of this so the only approach we have is to keep numbers low so that when people inevitably get it there is hospital treatment available to them if they need it.

Increasing ICU capacity so you can keep the peak under that capacity with less stringent lockdown measures is the ideal, no?
 
stepic said:
i don't think this is the case. as soon as things are loosened (in a phased capacity I'm sure), people will take advantage.
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It depends I think. As a fit and healthy 24 year old I'll be resuming my life as soon as the government allows me.

However, anyone who may think they are vulnerable for whatever reasons will have to take precautions.
 
NinjaFletch said:
But maybe someone like @PogueMahone will correct me if I'm wrong, but there's almost no reason for them not to do that. We can't get back on top of this so the only approach we have is to keep numbers low so that when people inevitably get it there is hospital treatment available to them if they need it.

Increasing ICU capacity so you can keep the peak under that capacity with less stringent lockdown measures is the ideal, no?
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Yes, this has to be the plan.
 
horsechoker said:
New cases down in Italy again but I expect that number to increase in the next few days. Slightly more deaths but that number probably correlates to the cases a week or two ago.
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It will surely increase due to the Easter weekend but its very good news that cases continue to fall even though tests are up near their maximum capacity again (they had been lower the last couple of days).
 
Pagh Wraith said:
Germany will announce new measures later today after the Chancellor's meeting with the state PMs in the afternoon.

Apparently those will include:
- extension of the current contact restrictions (1.5m distance, gatherings of no more than two people except for families and those living together) until 3 May
- reopening of shops up to 800m² from 20 Apr
- green light for football behind closed doors (Bundesliga plans to continue on 9 May)
- possible reopening of zoos, botanical gardens and museums
- restaurants will remain closed, possible exception for outdoor gastronomy

No information yet on schools and mandatory masks.
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Merkel's just given a press conference. All of the above has been confirmed. Additionally there will be no mass events until 31 Aug. Face masks will not be mandatory and schools will start opening on 4 May. All measures will be reviewed in two weeks.
 
Grinner said:
Why not just put a note on the window explaining that you own the place?
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Tbh I thought about doing that but feel it would be necessary in the end. Figured people would be able to tell we live here but sadly not.
 
It'll be interesting to see whether the government communicate that a second lockdown is likely or not.

I'd hope they try and coerce people into maintaining lesser social distancing by explaining it'll make a second or third full lockdown less likely. Many will think when the lockdown is finished that it's 'over'
 
Lots of crazy people (mainly old people with nothing better to do) thinking they’re police officers without a clue of circumstances of people out giving orders. It’s kinda pathetic in all honesty.

The country is doing well I think with social distancing & just getting on with it so we can move in from this, don’t need jobsworths who think they know everything trying to give out orders.
 
NinjaFletch said:
But maybe someone like @PogueMahone will correct me if I'm wrong, but there's almost no reason for them not to do that. We can't get back on top of this so the only approach we have is to keep numbers low so that when people inevitably get it there is hospital treatment available to them if they need it.

Increasing ICU capacity so you can keep the peak under that capacity with less stringent lockdown measures is the ideal, no?
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But aren't we at "peak" now? If so why increase capacity?
 
Rafaeldagold said:
Lots of crazy people (mainly old people with nothing better to do) thinking they’re police officers without a clue of circumstances of people out giving orders. It’s kinda pathetic in all honesty.

The country is doing well I think with social distancing & just getting on with it so we can move in from this, don’t need jobsworths who think they know everything trying to give out orders.
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I'm actually shit at it, I had to go shopping today, didn't even realise there was a path to follow in the supermarket. Luckily it wasn't too busy anyway. I just did it like a normal shop, just didn't barge past people and stuff.

Didn't mean to be shit at it, but alas, I am.

I'm best leaving the Mrs to the shopping.
 
One Night Only said:
I'm best leaving the Mrs to the shopping.
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This is the funniest thing about shopping lately. I see a lot of men taking pictures of items and waiting for their wives to confirm this is what they should be getting. It's quite funny seeing people have to navigate things they are wholly unfamiliar with.
 
One Night Only said:
'm actually shit at it, I had to go shopping today, didn't even realise there was a path to follow in the supermarket. Luckily it wasn't too busy anyway. I just did it like a normal shop, just didn't barge past people and stuff.
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Ummm, there's a path? :nervous:
 
My wife's best friend is heavily pregnant and was due for a cesarean two weeks ago as they felt a natural birth would be difficult for her for a few reasons. That was cancelled due to not enough staff and has been told even though there's serious dangers for her to give birth naturally, its the safer option. She's also had bad contractions for the last two days but they don't see her as a high enough priority yet. I would hate to be in that situation, not sure how I would cope.
 
blue blue said:
But aren't we at "peak" now? If so why increase capacity?
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Peak of this wave, as I understand it, with potential for a more deadly second and third wave once restrictions begin to be lifted.

But I'm a bit baffled about the language surrounding it too, tbh.
 
Darkhorsez said:
Here in Canada - the supermarket have even marked out spacing for queues outside store and also at the checkout tills. A lot of them have also installed screens for the cashiers too.
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Yeah that's the same here, have to queue round the carparks on the lines they've laid out at 2m apart. Luckily today there was no queue and I waltzed straight in, atleast I didn't think there was a queue
 
NinjaFletch said:
Peak of this wave, as I understand it, with potential for a more deadly second and third wave once restrictions begin to be lifted.

But I'm a bit baffled about the language surrounding it too, tbh.
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The only way I can see a potential for a more deadly second and third wave is if the government let everyone loose. But maybe that's what they're planning. Increase capacity and then get it over and done with?
 
Dwazza Gunnar Solskjær said:
This is the funniest thing about shopping lately. I see a lot of men taking pictures of items and waiting for their wives to confirm this is what they should be getting. It's quite funny seeing people have to navigate things they are wholly unfamiliar with.
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That's pretty sad :)
 
Dwazza Gunnar Solskjær said:
This is the funniest thing about shopping lately. I see a lot of men taking pictures of items and waiting for their wives to confirm this is what they should be getting. It's quite funny seeing people have to navigate things they are wholly unfamiliar with.
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Yep, that was me "yeah I'm at that potatoes, but there's different colours, different sizes, they're named different, why are they different prices?" I thought a potato was a potato. How wrong I was.
 
One Night Only said:
Yeah that's the same here, have to queue round the carparks on the lines they've laid out at 2m apart. Luckily today there was no queue and I waltzed straight in, atleast I didn't think there was a queue
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I guess it depends where it is. I had to queue up outside for a long time at Walmart in an NB town. Some groceries just make a show. Walmart was serious and not let anyone go inside as they want because they are controlling the number of people inside.
 
Pogue Mahone said:
Yes, I had heard about some of that. Which is why I’m not feeling massively confident about a highly effective and (crucially) safe vaccine being developed at any point. Never mind in 18 months time.

It’s obviously great to see so many novel approaches being tried out but, equally, the more novel the approach the higher the chance of failure. The antibody-dependant enhancement stuff is VERY scary. Where is your group based? Are you looking at intranasal administration for the vaccine?
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It is scary and will make attempts at developing a vaccine harder, but hopefully there’s enough researchers working on it to find a work around one way or another. In the meantime if one of the treatments show efficacy that’ll really help.

We’re not at the point in which we are able to use animal models yet (perhaps a couple of months away) but we will most likely be performing intranasal and sublingual administration to assess which is better. We’re based at Royal Holloway University in Surrey.
 
One Night Only said:
Yeah that's the same here, have to queue round the carparks on the lines they've laid out at 2m apart. Luckily today there was no queue and I waltzed straight in, atleast I didn't think there was a queue
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That’s great. You do your shopping at the same time and day. I found the biggest challenge in shopping is when it is busy. Just more stressful with making sure distance is kept with others even when they limit numbers allowed in at any given time.
 
Vitro said:
It is scary and will make attempts at developing a vaccine harder, but hopefully there’s enough researchers working on it to find a work around one way or another. In the meantime if one of the treatments show efficacy that’ll really help.

We’re not at the point in which we are able to use animal models yet (perhaps a couple of months away) but we will most likely be performing intranasal and sublingual administration to assess which is better. We’re based at Royal Holloway University in Surrey.
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God, you're honest!

Thought that entire university's raison d'être was to try and convince people Egham is in London...
 
blue blue said:
The clamour for a relaxation in the lockdown will build as the death rate falls but the new infections rate will probably rise based on the increase in tests numbers. How should we decide when to loosen the lockdown?

Should we loosen the lockdown when the NHS feels it has increased its capacity to deal with more patients? They seem to be increasing the number of beds with the new Nightingale Hospitals opening up. I don't understand why they are still increasing capacity when its beginning to look like the death rate may be falling.
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One reason for extra capacity is in case you need it, in particular in case you need extra ICU beds. The other reason for having extra capacity is because the NHS isn't currently "business as usual".

A lot of their normal work is currently postponed or being turned into phone consultations and advice only hands off sessions. Cancer treatments are being delayed (understandably so as those patients will often be in a high risk covid group). Cancer referrals for diagnostic tests were operating way below normal levels.

Elective surgery like cataracts and joint replacements are on hold. Some A&E and other departments are already reporting that patients with serious (non-covid) symptoms are coming to them late, and sometimes too late.

Excess capacity, more PPE and changes in organisation/locations to allow for better social distancing are all part of the mix. Not just for getting through this covid peak, for getting through the normal ongoing health care needs that still keep requiring attention alongside the pandemic.
 
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JMack1234 said:
It depends I think. As a fit and healthy 24 year old I'll be resuming my life as soon as the government allows me.

However, anyone who may think they are vulnerable for whatever reasons will have to take precautions.
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So if everything was re opened in three weeks say, you’d go completely back to normal?
 
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