Don't. We'll just have another like-minded and affluent argument over "I'll follow exactly what the government say" despite it being proven that they were wrong all that time.
SARS CoV-2 coronavirus / Covid-19 (No tin foil hat silliness please)
- Thread starter Don't Kill Bill
- Start date
Sorry if asked before, but is there a reason the UK is the only place in this list that doesn't have a figure for recoveries?
Worldometers
Worldometers
France
106206 cases +2633
31779 hospitalized
6457 in intensive care
10643 dead + 514
Care homes
41657 cases +2287
6524 dead +924
106206 cases +2633
31779 hospitalized
6457 in intensive care
10643 dead + 514
Care homes
41657 cases +2287
6524 dead +924
He will have nowhere to go other than work, all of the social places will still be on lockdown. fecking nuts if everything goes back to normal in three weeks time.
Personally I would and I'd have every right to do so unless the government stopped me.
It's a moot point anyway as everything isn't going to be opening in three weeks anyway.
Yes,
When we get better from Covid-19 we have at least a couple of dozen other things to get better from before you could accurately describe us as recovered.
I think it was more the principle of getting back to “normal” as soon as allowed. There’s obviously a lot of things people can do differently to before, despite things being re opened. Like when the shops open again, is everyone just going to walk around aimlessly in city centres? Or will people only use them when needed for a while.
There’s a massive difference between being able to go and see your family again, or spending all evening in a pub, coming into contact with 50 different people.
There’s a massive difference between being able to go and see your family again, or spending all evening in a pub, coming into contact with 50 different people.
Cool. Interesting stuff to be working on. Best of luck! We’re all rooting for you.
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And it's exactly why this country could easily he brainwashed into martial law. If they're exaggerating the current orders imagine what they'll be like if the government go all in on movement restrictions?
It won't take much to be able to convince a significant number of people to accept and help implement it, good wording and clever spins on stats is all it will take.
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Yep. It will be quite easy too - just drench the media with 'war based language'. Keep reiterating that "we're fighting a war, we're on the front line, your job is to help defend this country" type jargon.
Scared people are easy to control. Tell them they're doing a crucial role and a lot of them would try PHYSICALLY imposing the rules, I am certain of that.
And it's exactly why this country could easily he brainwashed into martial law. If they're exaggerating the current orders imagine what they'll be like if the government go all in on movement restrictions?
It won't take much to be able to convince a significant number of people to accept and help implement it, good wording and clever spins on stats is all it will take.
[/QUOTE]
Yep. It will be quite easy too - just drench the media with 'war based language'. Keep reiterating that "we're fighting a war, we're on the front line, your job is to help defend this country" type jargon.
Scared people are easy to control. Tell them they're doing a crucial role and a lot of them would try PHYSICALLY imposing the rules, I am certain of that.
Sorry, what? Martial law? Bit of a fecking leap from people getting snippy on twitter about other people sun-bathing to the army brutally suppressing any dissent. I really don’t get the civil liberties complaints here. Seems to me that the way this is being policed is not even close to being inappropriately heavy-handed. People are generally doing the right thing and the police are generally being tolerant and patient. There’s a real sense of everyone working together for the common good. Obviously you’re getting some arseholes testing limits but there will always be arseholes. Such is life. Still absolutely ludicrous to use words like brainwashing and martial law in this context.
Eventually people will start playing percentages again at some point, whether that's either subconsciously or by choice.
Most people won't default back to normal straight away (they won't be able too anyway as measures will be reduced gradually) but eventually the daily briefings will stop, Covid19s news coverage will slowly erode and human nature will cause some natural order to restore, many will do it without realising. Some may insist that they will play safe long term but it would be like a new year resolution, at first you stick it to it religiously/stubbornly but slowly your resolve softens.
Even now with the virus near its peak less than 200 people out of a million are dying and ultimately there's more chance of dying on the road (for under 30s you can probably add plane to that too), there's only so long people will restrict themselves with such low odds.
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Speaking of arseholes being arseholes....
You have people moaning about taking excercise or buying stuff they deem to be non essential. Or reporting their neighbors for talking at a distance. Some people are trying too hard to be good little boys/girls they are going over the top, like the schoolkid who does extra homework that he just didn't need to do.
I think/hope the government would never attempt this but if they did, it really really wouldn't be that hard to get a significant number of people onboard judging by what I've seen/been told so far.
Isn't this a classic case of only hearing about these scenarios and therefore making it seem more like a problem than it is? People don't report on twitter about how good they've been at social distancing nearly as much as them complaining. I suspect there is an element of bias/lopsidedness in what is being seen/told.
I know that for a lot of people its impossible to imagine a situation right now where we aren't getting daily briefings from the government and people are more or less getting along with life with some restrictions. But that situation will be here.
We are not getting rid of this virus completely, it seems like it's here to stay but once the number of deaths and hospitalisations decrease to what's considered to be a less scary and 'acceptable' level, life will continue.
There will possibly never be a day when the UK can say "there were zero covid19 deaths today", but once it becomes a regular occurrence for that number to be around 50-100, life will begin to resume and get back to some normality.
Can we not disown that wagon and set her adrift in the North Atlantic?
She must have a lot of time on her hands now she can't travel the country taking photos of schoolchildren and posting them on the internet, I mean documenting the evils of multi-culturalism.
I also thought that Waters bollox had fecked off somewhere never to return after we legalised abortion.
They are shit stirrers of the highest order.
Really good point. On the other side, the average age population of the humans in the world is 29.6 years, much lower than that of Iceland. Which might push the CFR even lower, and might be the salvation for countries with poor medical systems but very young population.
Brazil keeps climbing up. Seconf they with +3000 and +200 deaths and no lockdown measures.
Arlene Foster has said the lockdown will last for another 3 weeks to May 9th in N.Ireland... at least
I'm guessing the UK Government will probably announce the same tomorrow
I'm guessing the UK Government will probably announce the same tomorrow
I hate these type of messages. Vague information, no link, a casual reference to an authoritative institution and the wrong conclusion.
Fact of the matter is that we can say with more certainty that we have durable immunity at least for the short term. There was a study completed and published last month with macaque monkeys, they infected a group of them with the virus, they all came down with the classic coronavirus like illness, and then researchers waited until they fully recovered and they re-challanged them a month later and none of them got infected again. PCR negative, IGG positive.
Surely that's the same for every country?
A three week extension is a formality for the UK.
However if the death rate continues to fall and the rest of Europe is releasing their citizens. Then, I can't see the UK government extending the lockdown for much longer than three weeks before they'll have to start expanding the list of key workers and giving the economy some much needed oxygen.
However if the death rate continues to fall and the rest of Europe is releasing their citizens. Then, I can't see the UK government extending the lockdown for much longer than three weeks before they'll have to start expanding the list of key workers and giving the economy some much needed oxygen.
Business Insider has the same credibility on news as Tancredo Palmieri on transfers...
The UK hasn't had anything like the same type of restrictions as the hardest-hit European countries, and we've had no release in Italy apart from a few niche shops being able to open. I don't expect to be able to drive out of the village until the end of May at least.
The restrictions on people's movements in the UK has been light-touch. That's the last thing that needs to be lifted, after people are allowed to get back to work.
Another thing that plays in Iceland's favour is that it's a smallish and isolated country.
Of all the "predictions" I made, I think the one in which I'll more dramatically miss the target, was when I thought the situation in Azores would become catastrophic (poverty, illiteracy, 6 out of 9 islands without hospital). When I saw the first cases were being diagnosed in a few of the smaller islands, I became terrified.
However, it's been almost two weeks in which new cases were only diagnosed in São Miguel, the biggest island (population 140k). Even our second biggest island (55k) is stable at 7 diagnosed cases for more than two weeks. Poor testing policies could explain an underestimation of cases, but they couldn't hide the occasional appearance of a seriously ill patient. I'm confident containment policies are being extremely effective, not because our Health Authority is being particularly clever (right decisions, but late in my opinion), but because geography and demographics is on their side. Three of our nine islands never had any case, five had no new cases in the past two weeks, and only in São Miguel things seem a bit complicated at the moment, but much less than I expected by now. Our island has been cut into 6 areas, which despite not being completely isolated (working people can still travel), might turn out to be a great policy. Same thing was suggested for the worst areas in Continental Portugal (local "sanitary barriers") but it has not been implemented.
Out of curiosity I went to see how other similar regions could compare. Faroe Islands are doing wonderfully, and in the two smallest of Canary Islands (La Gomera and El Hierro) things seem completely controlled as well. On the other hand, in Mallorca, an island with 800k population and an airport that moves as many passengers as Lisbon's airport, things look a lot worse.
Like mentioned before, Germany seems to be doing rather well for such a large country, and the argument that it may be due to the autonomy of local governments, which makes it look more like a series of small rich countries with well suited policies. I think it's somewhat analogous to this "archipelago idea".
My fear of poor islands with 5k people becoming local tragedies seems unfounded. In hindsight, it seem to make sense that they don't. Containment is a lot easier when everyone knows almost everyone and people put pressure upon each other to follow the rules.
Christ she’s a weapon
It’s actually kind of fascinating.
It’s incredible how rarely we have supply shortages of important supplies, when we’re on a constant knife-edge in terms of getting the stuff we need, in the right quantities, to the place where it’s needed most, in time to meet demand.
Global crises like this really highlight what an incredible job mankind is doing keeping everything ticking over when life is “normal”.
So we know that monkeys are immune after being infected. For one month. Which tells us feck all about whether or not humans have long term immunity. Which would need to last at least 12 months if we’re going to avoid this virus repeatedly hitting us, year after year, until we get a vacccine.
Not to mention that even if we get permanent immunity after being infected (which would be an incredibly lucky break) we’re still in for multiple waves of infections between now and the point at which 2/3 of the world have been infected (or vaccinated, whichever comes first)
So basically, it would take a bit of a miracle for us not to need to be doing at least some form of social distancing in 2021. With a good chance of multiple lockdowns between now and the end of next year. My money would be on that scenario going on for a good bit longer, as it happens.
I think there is durable immunity at least in the short term - and often times short term immunity often times that bodes well for a long term immunity picture. People who have been infected will act as human immunological rods in the virus reaction, they will slow it down. They can be out in the world not worrying about getting infected and not infect others.
We do have distancing in the major metro areas. I'm just not 100% sure what the legal status is, because the governors started it and then the president pushed back. But in Rio and São Paulo at least the streets are seeing a fraction of foot traffic that they usually would.
In order for this virus to entirely wipe out human civilization you need:
1) There is no long-term immunity
2) Each successive infection is worse than the previous one
3) No effective treatments will be developed
If ALL those three things are true, this will be the virus that eradicates our species. Fortunately I don't believe any of those are true. There's compelling evidence that 1 is not true. There's no evidence on 2. And there's hope that we will come up with effective treatments at some point.
Absolutely. All of those do need to be true for the worst case scenario.
I would disagree that we’ve any evidence that 1 is untrue. Jury’s still out on that one.
I agree that 2 is extremely unlikely. In fact, that’s the least likely of the three of them.
If by “treatments” you’re also including vaccines then 3 is definitely a realistic possibility. Developing effective vaccines and treatments for viruses is difficult. The amount of resources thrown at this will give us the best possible chance but the odds are against us. IMHO anyway.
On a more optimistic note, here are my three criteria for the best case scenario:
1. Immunity post-infection is permanent
2. Asymptomatic infections are by far the most common
3. It’s possible to develop an effective, safe vaccine
4. Antivirals are developed that can prevent most sever cases ending up on a ventilator
Jury’s still out on all four of these. But it’s still early days.
That's true but if that happens (as planned effectively) won't the government come under massive pressure to reinstate the lockdown as the public sees deaths rising?
FAO Noggies
You may enjoy this twitter thread from a pal of mine who’s a doctor in your country.
You may enjoy this twitter thread from a pal of mine who’s a doctor in your country.
But there is any official lockdown measures, like limiting gatherings (officially). or closing bars and restaurants. No access to the beach in groups, etc... I am not talking to limiting going to work but something official? which stage are you? because it seems to grow rapidly.
Bolsonaro still downplaying or is starting to see it as a problem?
I am already noticing people being less strict. Went for a long walk earlier that involved paths etc. Lots of people about and a lot seemed to be making little effort to stay anywhere near 2m away from me. Some groups of lads on bikes. There was a family having a barbecue (this was in a country park).
I hope that’s true but at this stage we know very little about reinfection
Even Covid-19 doesn’t want to go to Norway?
Even in that case, it is not the end. People will feck more and make more kids. High mortality has always been associated with a high natality rate.
Of course, I don't believe that either of these is going to be true. Very likely there will be some type of immunity (I doubt it will be permanent, not many viruses give permanent immunity), there is no evidence whatsoever that the second infection is going to be worse, and I have confidence that we will find something, be it a vaccine or some treatment. It probably won't be a vaccine with 95% success rate or an antiviral that heals you in all cases, but I believe something is going to be found.