Pogue, isn’t there a chance that because SO many people are working on this that it could be quicker than any other?
SARS CoV-2 coronavirus / Covid-19 (No tin foil hat silliness please)
- Thread starter Don't Kill Bill
- Start date
I am not saying that the possibility of the two ifs combined is zero (it is very small though), but even then humanity would not be wiped out. The civilization would become completely dysfunctional and the population decimated, but it would not be completely wiped out.
I agree! That's why I'm saying we need to come up with a strategy very soon to allow this to pass through more of the population, with young people and women at the forefront.
Also, what about what the Oxford lady is saying?
Where did you get those numbers from?
The median age of diagnosed in Italy is 62. The median age of death is 80.
https://www.epicentro.iss.it/en/coronavirus/bollettino/Report-COVID-2019_13_april_2020.pdf
From what little I have read on the UK a median age of 40 seems low too.
Say we do ease measures what then happens with people who take public transport. How do you conceivably achieve social distancing on buses and trains that are normally packed with people going to and from work?
If it happens, amazing, but we just can't plan on it. September seems crazy unrealistic, and vaccinologists have no expertise in actually manufacturing things on large scale. Even if they had a safe vaccine that works now, distributing this year would be difficult.
So you are saying this could be really bad then.
This is from 2018, one of the reasons I made this thread when read about this virus.
https://www.iheart.com/podcast/105-...30006093/episode/ep06-biotechnology-30184921/
The Great filter ?
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There was a research paper from South Korea that looked at 300-400 recovered patients. The young adults in that group produced little to no antibodies, which suggests that immunity is rare for young people. This in return means that it could last until we have a vaccine
Isn't that completely normal though after a disease has passed to have only trace antibodies?
It's not the number of antibodies that has any bearing if we are re-infected but the force of the immune system at creating new antibodies to beat the virus again. It is natural for antibodies to go down to a very small level, but they are effectively waiting to be re-activated in case of the same virus.
The problem occurs when the immune system does not recognise the danger the second time through so doesn't create sufficient antibodies to beat the virus again.
https://www.thoughtco.com/antibodies-373557
Turns out that it was Shanghai and only 175 patients. The article cites where you can find the pre-study, but doesn't provide a direct link.
https://www.scmp.com/news/china/sci...rus-low-antibody-levels-raise-questions-about
The 18 month timescale is quicker than any other. By an enormous margin. This would typically take between 8 and 10 years.
Median age of the whole population. Not tested, not cases, not deaths. The whole population. Didn't spend more than 5 secs on googling any of those, but seem quite right also intuitively. Happy to look at better data from someone else. But the point that Icelandic are young and Italians are Europe's oldest (at least top3) stands.
Cool. Thanks. Looks like they issued a press release before they published the data. Interesting but hopefully not too much of a worry. Would wait to see much larger/longer studies before making any kind of definitive opinion about immunity.
Law already exists in the UK.
Dated1714 .Time of George the 1st deep unrest, the law is "An Act for preventing tumults and riotous assemblies" commonly referred to as "the Riot Act' must be read out in public before action taken.
Last reading of the Act in Britain was supposedly in 1918/19 when Policemen went on strike! (you couldn't make it up could you??)
Yes. Although you might include vulnerable groups like doctors and nurses in 3rd stage trials.
I am not saying that we can plan on it, as the truth is that no one knows when it will be available.
What I was trying to point out is that it is ridiculous that some people are claiming that it will certainly take 18+ months, while there is a leading scientist claiming that there is a very good chance that it will be finished in five months.
Because SARS was a very different disease that was much more deadly. It floored people before they could spread it en mass. People are spreading this one before they even show symptoms, it couldn't have been stopped.
I think she means having a working vaccine. There will be a fair amount of time between developing the working vaccine and getting it manufactured and distributed.
We've seen how difficult it is to manufacture and distribute PPE! Doing the same thing for a novel vaccine for way more people is of orders of magnitude more complicated.
5 months is impossible. 18 months for a widespread immunisation rollout will be 3 or 4 times faster than we have ever done it before and even then that assumes everything goes smoothly.
There was a research paper from South Korea that looked at 300-400 recovered patients. The young adults in that group produced little to no antibodies, which suggests that immunity is rare for young people. This in return means that it could last until we have a vaccine
Having antibodies in the bloodsteam constantly is not the only way immunity works. When the virus is defeated, T-cells store the memory of the virus and the antibody used in case the virus reinfects the body. If/when that happens, the immune response is much quicker and lots of antibodies are released to deal with the virus before it takes hold in the body. That's probably a big part of the reason why antibody tests are not reliable or useful. Plus, it may be the case that some of the mild or asymptomatic cases may not result in much antibody production anyway. It'll be really interesting if they could find out the reason why there is so much difference in how the body responds to being infected with coronavirus.
Just a thought, but I wonder if we'll start to see a rise in loony religions and loony religious beliefs before long? One or two idiots apart the churches and mosques, at least in most countries, have done well at taking the 'no gatherings' thing to heart and set a good example of course, but when people are terrified and desperate for solutions and reassurance that's when logic flies out of the window and the loonyness begins. 5g phone masts today, god says do this or else tomorrow?
I was talking about the timeframe of a vaccine being developed and tested, not distributed.
My post is somewhat related to yours.
But has anyone else been flabbergasted at just how bad science has been during all this?
I know that sounds ridiculous, but I think I've lived in a bubble for so long that I am shocked things got this bad.
In my head if there was ever a disease like this that was having a massive impact on the world, I thought we'd at least be able to mass produce tests for it easily enough. And mass produce tests that fecking worked.
Stuff like ventilator shortages. I literally thought it would be as easy as just flipping a switch in a factory to double setting and we'd be sorted. We have fecking doctors wearing bin bags FFS. I thought the world was better than this.
Fair enough that makes sense. Italy has the second oldest population in the world after Japan (who we now know were lying about their situation) and one of the highest smoking rates.
The time to die was very short and the case fatality rate very high early on, as the weaker patients died quickly. Both numbers are slowing down over time.
I was truly thinking about it last night and I was quite scared at how easy it was to turn the public into a submissive choir.
Now I'm not talking lockdown in itself because that was the right thing to do (at this point) I'm talking the people who are taking this too far. On social media you see people bitching about people taking exercise or buying stuff that's deemed to be non essential, or even their neighbours talking at a distance, some people are taking their role in this a little too far.
It worries me because it clearly demonstrates it won't be very hard to manipulate people into not only accepting martial law, but to also help implement it.
This, makes more worried about the 60 or so years I still hope to live.
Three things about that:
1) That time frame is based on her being 80% sure the vaccine will work and everything going perfectly after that. The 20% where the vaccine doesn't work and the extreme likelihood of things not going perfectly afterwards is huge room for error and delay, even assuming her assessment is correct, which it may well not be.
2) As she says, having it "ready" for September would depend on the government putting in the resources to begin mass production before the vaccine has actually proven to work. Which would be a questionable move on the government's part, to put it mildly.
3) It's hard to imagine that a vaccine developed so quickly that mass production starts before we even know it works can have be tested and trialled to the usual standard in terms of identifying negative health impacts from the vaccine itself. So it would presumably be extremely high risk as vaccines go?
Based on the qualifiers she mentioned and basic logic, I would still imagine that having a vaccine ready in five months is completely unrealistic. She's described a best case scenario that I struggle to imagine is in any way plausible. As has been said already, even the 18 month time frame would be very fast.
What have the things you mention got to do with a failure of science? The things you mention are a failure of governmental planning.
100% true. It's not even up for debate, 'the people will police themselves' is definitely a thing that can be manipulated. The easiest people in the world are scared people, and there's a lot of them around right now for understandable reasons.
I literally thought someone in a lab within a month would be able to develop a vaccine. That's how simple I thought this might be.
What are you waffling about?
There is no "after that". The talk is regarding a timeframe when vaccine could be developed and tested. It is already developed and she is 80% confident that testing will be done in September. Everything after that is out of scope of what we are talking about.
I said nothing regarding when everyone would actually be able to get it.
What I said that a lot of posters suggested that it will be at least 18 months until a vaccine is developed and tested and I just provided a link to a differing educated opinion.
Personally, I have no idea when this will be available; I am a programmer, not a doctor and am pretty sure that the majority of them don't have any idea either.
Germany will announce new measures later today after the Chancellor's meeting with the state PMs in the afternoon.
Apparently those will include:
- extension of the current contact restrictions (1.5m distance, gatherings of no more than two people except for families and those living together) until 3 May
- reopening of shops up to 800m² from 20 Apr
- green light for football behind closed doors (Bundesliga plans to continue on 9 May)
- possible reopening of zoos, botanical gardens and museums
- restaurants will remain closed, possible exception for outdoor gastronomy
No information yet on schools and mandatory masks.
Apparently those will include:
- extension of the current contact restrictions (1.5m distance, gatherings of no more than two people except for families and those living together) until 3 May
- reopening of shops up to 800m² from 20 Apr
- green light for football behind closed doors (Bundesliga plans to continue on 9 May)
- possible reopening of zoos, botanical gardens and museums
- restaurants will remain closed, possible exception for outdoor gastronomy
No information yet on schools and mandatory masks.
Great news, good to see. country on the front-foot with some positive action. Hope to see more following suit very soon! It's going to be very much playing it by ear but it's a good start. Well done, Deutschland.
I literally thought someone in a lab within a month would be able to develop a vaccine. That's how simple I thought this might be.
So it's not the science that's bad then
Good news from South Australia. Today was the first day where they found no new infections in their population and only 13 were found positive in the last week (4-500 tests a day). Only 466 South Australians have been found positive over the history of the pandemic and 279 of them (64%) have already recovered and only 10 are in hospital.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-04...us-testing-with-two-week-covid-blitz/12150524
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-04...us-testing-with-two-week-covid-blitz/12150524
I am wondering if there will be any restaurants left worldwide when this is over.
Reports would suggest the Chinese government covered up the spread and the doctors reporting the virus were closed down and now mysteriously have gone missing.
https://news.sky.com/story/coronavi...19-and-its-apparent-cover-up-attempt-11966539