SARS CoV-2 coronavirus / Covid-19 (No tin foil hat silliness please)

Pogue Mahone said:
So we know that monkeys are immune after being infected. For one month. Which tells us feck all about whether or not humans have long term immunity. Which would need to last at least 12 months if we’re going to avoid this virus repeatedly hitting us, year after year, until we get a vacccine.

Not to mention that even if we get permanent immunity after being infected (which would be an incredibly lucky break) we’re still in for multiple waves of infections between now and the point at which 2/3 of the world have been infected (or vaccinated, whichever comes first)

So basically, it would take a bit of a miracle for us not to need to be doing at least some form of social distancing in 2021. With a good chance of multiple lockdowns between now and the end of next year. My money would be on that scenario going on for a good bit longer, as it happens.
Click to expand...

What are you on about? We're not going to conduct that experiment on humans, but animal studies help shape answers that we couldn't get otherwise. This study gave me actual hope that there's durable immunity in the short term.

And to clarify, researchers didn't just do PCR, they did culture too - in other words they weren't just looking for surface protein, they were looking for the actual virus.
 
4bars said:
But there is any official lockdown measures, like limiting gatherings (officially). or closing bars and restaurants. No access to the beach in groups, etc... I am not talking to limiting going to work but something official? which stage are you? because it seems to grow rapidly.

Bolsonaro still downplaying or is starting to see it as a problem?
Click to expand...
Officially only on a state-by-state basis, nothing ordered by the federal government. But it has also proven hard to implement in poorer areas of both major cities and medium/small ones. The access to information is lower and the need for immediate work for income is higher. It is growing rapidly because we're 2-3 weeks behind where New York is (as one reference point, and talking here about Sao Paulo and Rio mostly), and Bolsonaro is still being the absolutely biggest idiot ever to walk the face of the earth (the man has deep, deep issues).
 
Someone will invent personal hazmat style suits that will allow people to travel on underground etc safely to get to the office etc
 
Pogue Mahone said:
That’s another unknown. It’s actually much more likely that second and subsequent infections are less serious than the first. Although it’s not impossible that they get worse each time (which happens with Dengue fever).

If that does turn out to be the case - and we can’t develop an effective vaccine (which is not an unlikely outcome) - then we’re probably looking at humanity being wiped out completely.
Click to expand...

Natural selection would prevent that.
 
Revan said:
Even in that case, it is not the end. People will feck more and make more kids. High mortality has always been associated with a high natality rate.

Of course, I don't believe that either of these is going to be true. Very likely there will be some type of immunity (I doubt it will be permanent, not many viruses give permanent immunity), there is no evidence whatsoever that the second infection is going to be worse, and I have confidence that we will find something, be it a vaccine or some treatment. It probably won't be a vaccine with 95% success rate or an antiviral that heals you in all cases, but I believe something is going to be found.
Click to expand...

I know, I was just running a thought experiment for the doom and gloom brigade.

We have the 1) it's a nothingburgher camp (just the flu) and the doom and gloom brigade (lockdown for years, until we have a vaccine)

How are things in Cali?

On an tangentially relevant point, seems like Corona brought down Albin Kurti's gov't. How do you think the power struggle with Thaci and the Americans will play out in Prishtina?
 
Pogue Mahone said:
FAO Noggies

You may enjoy this twitter thread from a pal of mine who’s a doctor in your country.

Click to expand...


Yes all has gone very well lately, we turned the tide with early and strict measures. However, now we are starting up schools in "careful-mode" etc. so we will see how that goes.

I also saw that ECDC wants Norways gov. to recommend using facemasks. The thing is.. it is impossible to get hold of any here.
We are very lucky that this thing did not go south early because there was no readiness reg. equipment etc. whatsoever.
 
Classical Mechanic said:
About 50% of Londoners uses public transport - so about 4.5 million people. They’re going to need something going forward.
Click to expand...
I’m serious. You could wear something like that to travel then hang it in a personal locker at work. There’s a market there for these things now, some kind of weird sci-Fi future is upon us
 
golden_blunder said:
I’m serious. You could wear something like that to travel then hang it in a personal locker at work. There’s a market there for these things now, some kind of weird sci-Fi future is upon us
Click to expand...

I hate the idea of having to get back on packed trains to/from the office. But seriously, it’s not possible to get your hands on masks for love nor money
 
MTF said:
Officially only on a state-by-state basis, nothing ordered by the federal government. But it has also proven hard to implement in poorer areas of both major cities and medium/small ones. The access to information is lower and the need for immediate work for income is higher. It is growing rapidly because we're 2-3 weeks behind where New York is (as one reference point, and talking here about Sao Paulo and Rio mostly), and Bolsonaro is still being the absolutely biggest idiot ever to walk the face of the earth (the man has deep, deep issues).
Click to expand...

Yeah, with the overcrowded and narrow favelas and the impossibility to implement anything inside the most problematic ones will be difficult. And with the massive population in Sao Paulo... hopefully up north with the heat and humidity will be more difficult to spread (if it is true what they say) but yeah, Bolsonario is quite a piece of work. Do you believe him on that he had covid19?
 
Pogue Mahone said:
FAO Noggies

You may enjoy this twitter thread from a pal of mine who’s a doctor in your country.

Click to expand...


I think I must be a secret nationalist, there's nothing I enjoy more than reading/watching accounts of foreigners who live or have lived in Norway. They're always so nice. Sometimes I check for stories about Norway on BBC or Guardian just to read something nice that a foreigner says about my country. Or else if they say something not nice, smugly dismiss them as ignorant. Oh you don't like the Norwegian prison system? You think Norwegian health care must be bad? How sad for you. :drool:

golden_blunder said:
Even Covid-19 doesn’t want to go to Norway?
Click to expand...

:mad:
 
Suedesi said:
I know, I was just running a thought experiment for the doom and gloom brigade.

We have the 1) it's a nothingburgher camp (just the flu) and the doom and gloom brigade (lockdown for years, until we have a vaccine)

How are things in Cali?
Click to expand...

I am happy with the gubernatorial response, the governor seems capable and took many matters on his own hands. The number of new daily cases seem to be around 1000, less than 5% of the total number. With 23k cases for a state of more than 40 million people, it is kind of ok.

Suedesi said:
On an tangentially relevant point, seems like Corona brought down Albin Kurti's gov't. How do you think the power struggle with Thaci and the Americans will play out in Prishtina?
Click to expand...

I think it was a combination of the US pressure via Richard Grenell, Thaci playing his always destructive role and the minor party in the government wanting to take the PM (which ironically, made the speaker of parliament who was the candidate for PM from that party to take the side of Kurti, not of her own party). I guess a constitutional crisis is imminent.
 
Cardboard elk said:
Yes all has gone very well lately, we turned the tide with early and strict measures. However, now we are starting up schools in "careful-mode" etc. so we will see how that goes.

I also saw that ECDC wants Norways gov. to recommend using facemasks. The thing is.. it is impossible to get hold of any here.
We are very lucky that this thing did not go south early because there was no readiness reg. equipment etc. whatsoever.
Click to expand...

That's been my thought whenever I see someone mention masks. Just... where am I going to get them? Order them off the internet? For this to work, I'm sure the government would have to go about procuring a large supply of masks and ensure that they are distributed. I also admit it would feel very strange using a mask up in the north, where there's barely any infection (though at this point there's barely any infection anywhere that isn't Oslo, and even there it's dropping).
 
Abizzz said:
WHO's advice has been a lot more useful to Americans than the federal government's advice in the past 4 months. The WHO benefits US citizen's, and that had been the bipartisan consensus for decades.


This is him trying to deflect blame by laying it at the feet of those more competent and capable than him.
Click to expand...
Like i said i'm not defending the action. and your right it is deflection. But it is going to become more common place that countries cut funding to world wide charitable organisations over the coming years in order to cut over heads. That's just the reality of governments having to borrow at unparalleled levels during a period when the the economy is shrinking at a record breaking level.

Over the coming years there is going to be and will need to be massive cuts to compensate for that that just a reality people need to be prepared for. Things like the WHO and organisation like that are going to be hit hard. But then so are pretty much every aspect of government funding.

Of course that doesn't take away that this is the wrong time for Trump to do it.
 
I do wonder if the government are going to give us some sort of info in how they plan to release us tomorrow. Or if they'll still guard it as if it's a state secret.

Before too long, an exit plan will absolutely vital to keeping the public on board.
 
4bars said:
Yeah, with the overcrowded and narrow favelas and the impossibility to implement anything inside the most problematic ones will be difficult. And with the massive population in Sao Paulo... hopefully up north with the heat and humidity will be more difficult to spread (if it is true what they say) but yeah, Bolsonario is quite a piece of work. Do you believe him on that he had covid19?
Click to expand...
I think he didn't have it. Not everyone on the brazilian delegation that made the trip to the US had it, seemed about 50/50 those who got it and those who didn't. The reason I think Bolsonaro indeed didn't have it is that he seemed fine all of the past 5 weeks. I don't think he'd have been ok if he'd been infected.
 
JMack1234 said:
I do wonder if the government are going to give us some sort of info in how they plan to release us tomorrow. Or if they'll still guard it as if it's a state secret.

Before too long, an exit plan will absolutely vital to keeping the public on board.
Click to expand...

It’s surely too early to say? Need to know as best we can we are past the initial peak.
 
F-Red said:
Cycling is a viable alternative in the short term.
Click to expand...

Great idea. We'll commission the 4.5 million bikes now, then commission the 4.5 million protective suits after. Genius.

I think most people on Europe are at the feck it stage now, nobody I know cares anymore.
 
Camilo said:
Great idea. We'll commission the 4.5 million bikes now, then commission the 4.5 million protective suits after. Genius.

I think most people on Europe are at the feck it stage now, nobody I know cares anymore.
Click to expand...

Cares about what?

Getting infected/following the rules or social distancing?

Everyone I know in Ireland is settling in for the long haul. Some people are getting a bit more relaxed and not as strict as they were but when I go out people are still making sure not to come too close to you if they don't have to.
 
Heardy said:
It’s surely too early to say? Need to know as best we can we are past the initial peak.
Click to expand...

It's too early to put any dates on it for sure. They can't say that we're going to re-open these sections of the economy on the 8th of May at quarter-past three.

However, the government can tell us what they plan to do. What sectors can return to work first? Will it be national or by region? Will the young be allowed out first? How are they thinking of phasing schools back.

We deserve to know these questions. It's our law, it's our government and it'll be our taxes that are going to fund the lockdown. The vast vast majority of people are sacrificing their most basic freedoms to help out. The least government can do is let us know how they want to get us out of this. It's only polite...
 
Withnail said:
Cares about what?

Getting infected/following the rules or social distancing?

Everyone I know in Ireland is settling in for the long haul. Some people are getting a bit more relaxed and not as strict as they were but when I go out people are still making sure not to come too close to you if they don't have to.
Click to expand...


Yeah, it’s becoming habitual surprisingly quickly. Couldn’t even imagine shaking hands with someone, or squeezing into a crowded pub. With personal safety at risk, I don’t see anyone suddenly switching back to the way we used to behave in any kind of hurry. If anything, it might take a fair bit of encouragement to get people to take their guard down.
 
JMack1234 said:
It's too early to put any dates on it for sure. They can't say that we're going to re-open these sections of the economy on the 8th of May at quarter-past three.

However, the government can tell us what they plan to do. What sectors can return to work first? Will it be national or by region? Will the young be allowed out first? How are they thinking of phasing schools back.

We deserve to know these questions. It's our law, it's our government and it'll be our taxes that are going to fund the lockdown. The vast vast majority of people are sacrificing their most basic freedoms to help out. The least government can do is let us know how they want to get us out of this. It's only polite...
Click to expand...

They don’t know the answer to those questions. They do know the lockdown needs to continue. And they hope we’ll have gathered enough data by the time it ends to make an informed decision about what happens next. Meanwhile you need to learn to live with uncertainty. Because uncertainty is all that anyone has right now. Including the people making the decisions.
 
Pogue Mahone said:
They don’t know the answer to those questions. They do know the lockdown needs to continue. And they hope we’ll have gathered enough data by the time it ends to make an informed decision about what happens next. Meanwhile you need to learn to live with uncertainty. Because uncertainty is all that anyone has right now. Including the people making the decisions.
Click to expand...

Obviously the lockdown is being extended for another three weeks before we're considered for release. We all know that.

I'm not saying the government have to publish a perfect exit plan tomorrow but business needs some idea of what's going on. Also if they give us an idea of what the current thinking is it can be picked at, prodded and probed. To make it better.

It's bizarre that the UK Government want to keep their thinking a state secret.
 
JMack1234 said:
It's too early to put any dates on it for sure. They can't say that we're going to re-open these sections of the economy on the 8th of May at quarter-past three.

However, the government can tell us what they plan to do. What sectors can return to work first? Will it be national or by region? Will the young be allowed out first? How are they thinking of phasing schools back.

We deserve to know these questions. It's our law, it's our government and it'll be our taxes that are going to fund the lockdown. The vast vast majority of people are sacrificing their most basic freedoms to help out. The least government can do is let us know how they want to get us out of this. It's only polite...
Click to expand...

That assumes they already know exactly what they're going to do, as opposed to their plans being influenced by how the next few weeks play out.

Also, if I was the government I'd be very aware of the need to be on point in terms of messaging. Which means my focus would be on continuing to drill home the messaging around locking down, rather than adding in extra info about something that might not happen for weeks. People might want to know what is going to happen and many might think they deserve to know but that doesn't automatically mean it's beneficial for them to know. Especially if what they're told may then be subject to change.
 
We scientists said lock down. But UK politicians refused to listen - Helen Ward

Helen Ward is a Professor of Infectious Disease Epidemiology at Imperial.

That day, 12 March, after hearing with disbelief the government announcement that didn’t include widespread social distancing, I recommended to my team at Imperial that they should work from home for the foreseeable future. Indeed, I have not been to my office since.

Neither the advice nor the science were followed that week. My colleagues, led by Neil Ferguson, published a report on 16 March estimating that without strong suppression, 250,000 people could die in the UK. The government responded that day with a recommendation for social distancing, avoiding pubs and working from home if possible. But there was still no enforcement, and it was left up to individuals and employers to decide what to do. Many people were willing but unable to comply as we showed in a report on 20 March. It was only on 23 March that a more stringent lockdown and economic support was announced.

Between 12 and 23 March, tens, if not hundreds of thousands, of people will have been infected. Boris Johnson himself may well have been infected that week, and his stay in the intensive care unit may have been avoided if the government had shifted to remote working on 12 March. The current best estimate is that around 1% of those infected will die.
Click to expand...


The WHO advice, based on decades of experience and widely accepted by public health leaders and scientists around the world was clear – use every possible tool to suppress transmission. That meant testing and isolating cases, tracing and quarantining contacts, and ramping up hygiene efforts.
Click to expand...
Apparently the UK's own Nervtag (new and emerging respiratory virus threats advisory group) is kind of useless.
China, by contrast, was scarred by its experience of Sars. When the government realised that a new virus was circulating, Chinese officials didn’t advise hand washing, a better cough etiquette and disposing of tissues. They quarantined entire cities and shut down the economy. As one former secretary of state for health in England put it to me, our scientists suffered from a “cognitive bias” towards the milder threat of influenza.

Perhaps that is why the key government committee, the new and emerging respiratory virus threats advisory group (Nervtag), concluded on 21 February, three weeks after the World Health Organization had declared a public health emergency of international concern, that they had no objection to Public Health England’s “moderate” risk assessment of the disease to the UK population. That was a genuinely fatal error of judgement.
Click to expand...
https://www.theguardian.com/comment...in-failed-prepare-mers-sars-ebola-coronavirus

It's also always interesting to hear what experts think of how China and WHO handled the virus. It's almost always positive.

Whereas in this thread you have post of after post of people regurgitating Brietbart conspiracies.
 
Pogue Mahone said:
Yeah, it’s becoming habitual surprisingly quickly. Couldn’t even imagine shaking hands with someone, or squeezing into a crowded pub. With personal safety at risk, I don’t see anyone suddenly switching back to the way we used to behave in any kind of hurry. If anything, it might take a fair bit of encouragement to get people to take their guard down.
Click to expand...
I think it will be the opposite, soon as the coverage slows down whenever that may be people will slip back into the habits eventually be it subconsciously or by choice.

I mean people will make conscious effort at first but ultimately it will be like a New Year's revolution, eventually 99.9% of people will naturally slip back to type once the message isn't being reinforced 24/7 like it is now.
 
sullydnl said:
That assumes they already know exactly what they're going to do, as opposed to their plans being influenced by how the next few weeks play out.

Also, if I was the government I'd be very aware of the need to be on point in terms of messaging. Which means my focus would be on continuing to drill home the messaging around locking down, rather than adding in extra info about something that might not happen for weeks. People might want to know what is going to happen and many might think they deserve to know but that doesn't automatically mean it's beneficial for them to know. Especially if what they're told may then be subject to change.
Click to expand...

Business need to know as quickly as possible. The humblest student of business know that the one thing businesses hate is uncertainty so I believe every business deserves to know and that knowledge would be beneficial.

I also think there's a flip side. There will be a section of public getting increasingly sick of lockdown and will need to be given some light a the end of the tunnel.

If the government continue to take the view that such people don't posses the mental faculties to process two messages at the same time. One being about the present, the other being about the future. They may find that people decide that they can't wait for government to give a green light and may have to come a decisions as private citizens on what they deem to appropriate, irrespective on what that inconsequential careerist suit Matthew Hancock says.
 
MTF said:
I think he didn't have it. Not everyone on the brazilian delegation that made the trip to the US had it, seemed about 50/50 those who got it and those who didn't. The reason I think Bolsonaro indeed didn't have it is that he seemed fine all of the past 5 weeks. I don't think he'd have been ok if he'd been infected.
Click to expand...

Well, there are asymptomatic people that have 0 symptoms. some studies says over 30% of the infected
 
golden_blunder said:
Except there was a Belgian study done on joggers and cyclists.. you wouldn’t want to be traveling in their slipstream
Click to expand...

After years of commuting I have moved close to work and have cycled to work for more than 6 months and I haven't had even a sniffle in that time unlike previously when minor colds were frequent. So while viruses could be caught by cycling behind an infected person it is likely far less risky than using public transport.
 
I can't fecking wait for a nice cold pint, beads of condensation running down the sides of the glass, a low murmur of chatter, a rustle of crisps, spontaneous laughter from the other side of the pub, watching football.
 
Apparenty Spain had only been counting deaths in the hospitals. Catalonia will add +3000 more deaths tomorrow to the accounting while the rest will not. So probably the deaths in Spain is around +30.000 (catalonia is double than what they accounted so far, so more or less the same madrid?) and not 18000
 
4bars said:
Apparenty Spain had only been counting deaths in the hospitals. Catalonia will add +3000 more deaths tomorrow to the accounting while the rest will not. So probably the deaths in Spain is around +30.000 (catalonia is double than what they accounted so far, so more or less the same madrid?) and not 18000
Click to expand...
FFS, this is really bad.
 
Revan said:
FFS, this is really bad.
Click to expand...

It is. Is the same accounting method that France is doing now and they passed from 700 to 1400. The same as Belgium.

Lots of other countries they only counting hospital victims (like Netherlands) and not private homes and elderly nursing homes, so most likely the real deaths toll is closer to 200.000 overall than what is now.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.