SARS CoV-2 coronavirus / Covid-19 (No tin foil hat silliness please)

Yup, from everything I've read - the entire point of lockdown is to get us back to the start of this fight. The lockdown is just giving you an opportunity to catch up on your testing capacity, improve your contact tracing & also workout what are the biggest bang for your buck social distancing measures.

I genuinely, you need to be able to test somewhere between 1-2% of your population per week to pull this off - possibly more if you've let it spread more severely. You're going to need systematic testing in work environments/schools & put measures in place to test people who use public transport.

Does a single person here think we (the UK) will be able to effectively do these measures?

Hope I'm proven wrong but it's not seeming likely.
 
Isn't 50% the goal, then the decline starts ?

The estimates I saw were 70-80%. I did see one lower estimate but it looked like it had been calculated on R rather than R0 which I assume would mean some herd immunity effect as long as we reached this lower HIT and maintained current restrictions and practices.

Another approach will be to target vulnerable groups e.g. medical staff in the early human trials even if a full vaccine rollout takes 12-24 months.
 
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The tens of thousands of dead older folk might disagree.

They aren't mutually exclusive are they?

The elderly are vulnerable to succumbing to the virus.

The young are more vulnerable to the catastrophic economic consequences.
 
I didn't even get into blame my objections were to the gaslighting and dishonest rhetoric of the government. They're so focused on avoiding blaming that they're spinning that there's no issue at all.

The lack of PPE under these circumstances isn't unprecedented though. We spent money and effort in assessing preparedness for these events in 2016 and identified it as a risk, what mitigations were formed?

We knew about this in January and have we sufficiently ramped up plans for the manufacturing industry to produce PPE? Considering the health secretary only started making public calls for it towards the end of March and manufactures were being turned down with equipment sold offshore instead then I'm going to say not.

All I can say to that is if the government had spent a fortune on PPE back on 2016 I can imagine the headlines if it had all gone out of date and thrown away whilst millions had been spent. Let’s not act like this should have been well planned for years ago. Who genuinely thought this would happen within the next 25 years other than the likes of Bill Gates and a few conspiracy theorists?

And as for preparing in January I suppose more could have been done at that time but I didn’t see much done by the rest of Europe. I guess they were naive to believe this wouldn’t have impacted Europe as much as it has.
 
Isn't that a bit flippant? The 2008 recession hit harder and longer than any of the crises post-WWII in most of the world, and the initial signs suggest this crisis will have hit harder and quicker than anything in your lifetime. It might bounce back equally quickly, all we have are projections now, but what we know already sets this apart as something distinctive.

SVGZ-COVID19-Lives-Ex4-revised.ashx

A recession is a recession. The graph shows they happen with a fair bit of regularity, although we've done well to reduce both frequency and severity through the latter years of the 20th century.

Is this one severe? Yes, obviously, but there were warnings of a recession even before the COVID-19 response decimated western economies and sped up and exacerbated the fallout.
 
What was their impact in comparison to the 2008 financial crisis? Tbf I could just go and look it up, but I assume they weren’t as deep and long

Generally speaking the consensus is that the recovery for Black Monday and the Dot Com Bubble were fairly close in duration and only about six months shorter than the 2008 crash. That being said the bad times weren't as long but took almost as long to recover from.
 
Actually meant once in a generation rather than a lifetime.

Though when was the last time two entirely separate global economic crises of this sort of scale occured within a 10-15 year period of each other?

This is not an economic crisis though. It's a world crisis that will affect the economy, it's far bigger. That's why anybody who knows anything about the world markets is saying this is a once in a lifetime event.
 
My brother got out of quarantine last week in Shanghai. Haven’t spoke with him by my mom has said he’s been out to the pub with his football team and their league has started back up. His school is reopening at the start of May. He has been told by the school not to book flights home for the summer though yet. Wasn’t sure if that is because the school year will be extended or something to do with trouble trying to get back into China come September.

Meanwhile in Canada, I’m a little worried they don’t seem to be taking it seriously although I understand the financial need. My brother and his girlfriend have just started working at some warehouse. Apparently they aren’t eligible for the government scheme because my brother didn’t work in February and his gf only worked part time hours. My mom had my brother over for Easter though which is what worries me. My other brothers still working at his plant too. Someone has tested positive there and they shut down just for one day. Is the production of automotive dies really essential right now? He also won’t wear a mask because apparently it isn’t effective with a beard. At least his gf is being serious about it but won’t help her if he brings it home. Just seems far away from the panic it seems to be in the uk.
 
Isn't that a bit flippant? The 2008 recession hit harder and longer than any of the crises post-WWII in most of the world, and the initial signs suggest this crisis will have hit harder and quicker than anything in your lifetime. It might bounce back equally quickly, all we have are projections now, but what we know already sets this apart as something distinctive.
I haven't read any analysis, but my hope has been that the nature of this recession will lend itself to a much quicker and different kind of recovery.
 
Generally speaking the consensus is that the recovery for Black Monday and the Dot Com Bubble were fairly close in duration and only about six months shorter than the 2008 crash. That being said the bad times weren't as long but took almost as long to recover from.
Fair enough. Being early thirties, I tend to think of there only being one major financial crisis of my lifetime (with this potentially being number 2)
 
Preach!

The young have been well and truly shafted this crisis.

They haven't as they're mostly not the ones who are actually, you know, dying from this.

Everyone is getting screwed, business owners who have put in decades of work, will end up with nothing. Zero hour contract workers with families to feed could have no money to buy food almost immediately. Part time workers, cleaners, plumbers, decorators, restaurant owners and all the support staff etc. all with an immediate halt to their income. Anything where you have to be physically present is in trouble.

The majority of the age range you're referring to, will be lucky enough to be living from a family home and forge a career in a world where this is a known quantity. Some are unable to retrain, unable to change

We'll all have to pay for it though, my 3 year old will probably end up paying towards it until retirement, which is terrifying.

No one is lucky here, but everyone is getting screwed by this virus no matter your age, some with far harsher consequences than others.
 
Who genuinely thought this would happen within the next 25 years other than the likes of Bill Gates and a few conspiracy theorists?

A french TV show played clips earlier of both Obama and Bush saying something like this was a huge potential threat and they had to be prepared.
 
They aren't mutually exclusive are they?

The elderly are vulnerable to succumbing to the virus.

The young are more vulnerable to the catastrophic economic consequences.
Indeed- that's what I was saying.
 
They haven't as they're mostly not the ones who are actually, you know, dying from this.

Everyone is getting screwed, business owners who have put in decades of work, will end up with nothing. Zero hour contract workers with families to feed could have no money to buy food almost immediately. Part time workers, cleaners, plumbers, decorators, restaurant owners and all the support staff etc. all with an immediate halt to their income. Anything where you have to be physically present is in trouble.

The majority of the age range you're referring to, will be lucky enough to be living from a family home and forge a career in a world where this is a known quantity. Some are unable to retrain, unable to change


We'll all have to pay for it though, my 3 year old will probably end up paying towards it until retirement, which is terrifying.

No one is lucky here, but everyone is getting screwed by this virus no matter your age, some with far harsher consequences than others.

Absolutely, the economy has been obliterated and they young will have to live with that longer than the old.

The young are going to be unlucky enough not to have secure job or their own home and we will be paying extortionate rents for the rest of our lives because of the decisions the government have taken.
 
Fair enough. Being early thirties, I tend to think of there only being one major financial crisis of my lifetime (with this potentially being number 2)

Apparently most of the 1970s was a recession. We've improved at how we recover from them but they seem to happen with some degree of regularity and the only variances are the duration and intensity.

If I include my very earliest days there have been five major economic/financial crises in my 45 years.
 
It's heating up in my hospital now. Three of my A&E colleagues started to show symptoms of Covid19 mid-shift over this weekend, two were sent home while one was admitted for observation.
My ward patients, elderly folk, are starting to spike temperatures left right and center. If this was pre-Covid time, I wouldn't bat an eyelid and just investigate a source of a bacterial infection. Covid is on the mind, and suddenly I have to decide whether it's worth I isolate this person in a cubicle on the ward rather than a bay just because they've spiked a temperature. My old Orthopaedic wards have not turned into a HDU ward and an ITU ward.

It's scary what the effects of all this will be down the line. I think it's a matter of when, rather than if, a second peak will occur. I just can't see it being physically possible that this won't go on for many, many more months given how infectious this is.
 


Yes, even when things seem to be under control, this virus is going to burn slowly through the ICUs and nursing homes in the western world. The small-ish nations in Northern and Eastern Europe with a population of 10 million and less, are good examples of this; dozens of them closed up a month ago with zero deaths and relatively few confirmed cases, but the death toll just keeps on rising despite not having overburdened hospitals. For the bigger nations (US, UK, Italy, Spain, France, etc), it will take a long, long time to push the daily death toll below 100.
 
Absolutely, the economy has been obliterated and they young will have to live with that longer than the old.

The young are going to be unlucky enough not to have secure job or their own home and we will be paying extortionate rents for the rest of our lives because of the decisions the government have taken.

Well, of course the young will have to live with it longer than the old. That's the nature of young and old.

Which age range has a secure job now? Rent was extortionate before this, nothing has changed there.

There have been lots of conversations in here about government delays, Sweden, South Korea, Germany and the like about what could and should have been done, but literally no one knows what the best course of action is, no one knows about reinfection rates, vaccines and immunity.

Everyone is getting a buttfecking here, let's not say it's easy on the oldies as they're not going to be around long enough to pay for it, when there's a bucket load of old people homes (and those at home alone) infected and will likely die because of it.

(I have no skin in the game with the over 70s)

I guess all I'm trying to emphasise here is that the younger of us, will have time to adapt, they'll have higher tax most likely, but tax has always been a bitch (boomers got mightily fecked on interest rates 30 odd years ago)
 
Well, of course the young will have to live with it longer than the old. That's the nature of young and old.

Which age range has a secure job now? Rent was extortionate before this, nothing has changed there.

There have been lots of conversations in here about government delays, Sweden, South Korea, Germany and the like about what could and should have been done, but literally no one knows what the best course of action is, no one knows about reinfection rates, vaccines and immunity.

Everyone is getting a buttfecking here, let's not say it's easy on the oldies as they're not going to be around long enough to pay for it, when there's a bucket load of old people homes (and those at home alone) infected and will likely die because of it.

(I have no skin in the game with the over 70s)

I guess all I'm trying to emphasise here is that the younger of us, will have time to adapt, they'll have higher tax most likely, but tax has always been a bitch (boomers got mightily fecked on interest rates 30 odd years ago)

People in their 30s., 40s and 50s on the whole have more secure jobs than people in the teenage years and 20s. That's the nature of career progression, and just because rent is extortionate now does not mean that it can't get more extortionate in the future. As they almost certainly will.

Again the young being economically obliterated does mean that I think older age groups have it easy. They obviously don't.
 
All I can say to that is if the government had spent a fortune on PPE back on 2016 I can imagine the headlines if it had all gone out of date and thrown away whilst millions had been spent. Let’s not act like this should have been well planned for years ago. Who genuinely thought this would happen within the next 25 years other than the likes of Bill Gates and a few conspiracy theorists?

And as for preparing in January I suppose more could have been done at that time but I didn’t see much done by the rest of Europe. I guess they were naive to believe this wouldn’t have impacted Europe as much as it has.

How about everyone?

https://www.who.int/influenza/preparedness/en/
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/global-...id-chiefs-warning-global-flu-pandemic-threat/

or more specific to the UK:
https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/pandemic-influenza-response-plan

I don't understand this desire to let the people who could potentially have been responsible for hundreds to thousands of deaths off the hook without any kind of scrutiny.
 
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How about everyone?

https://www.who.int/influenza/preparedness/en/
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/global-...id-chiefs-warning-global-flu-pandemic-threat/

or more specific to the UK:
https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/pandemic-influenza-response-plan

I don't understand this desire to let the people who could potentially have been responsible for hundreds to thousands of deaths off without any kind of scrutiny.

To add to this point @Josep Dowling



Also on your last point @do.ob some people just want to defend their team as best as they can.
 
Who genuinely thought this would happen within the next 25 years other than the likes of Bill Gates and a few conspiracy theorists?
Bush Jnr and Obama both made speeches about being prepared for a global pandemic.

Likewise ‘exercise Cygnus’ and ‘event 201’ were also very recent simulations for an unprecedented pandemic.

No conspiracy theorists in any of that.
 
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Sucks for them, but the millennials as a generation will suffer the aftereffects of this the most.
Sucks for them

I think perhaps looking after everyone as best we can might be the best idea.

And the best way to get everyone's lives back on track is suppressing the spread of this virus until we have treatments and a vaccine. That might allow for a gradual lessening of restrictions but exactly what that will look like is hard to know at this stage.
 
Bush Jnr and Obama both made speeches about being prepared for a global pandemic.

Likewise exercise cygnus and project 201 were also very recent simulations for an unprecedented pandemic.

No conspiracy theorists in any of that.

And Trump did disband the pandemic response team even if a few employees were retained in other divisions of the department. But the only false news is Republicans claiming that is wasn't disbanded, just streamlined. Or bullshit as those of us on planet earth call it.
 
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And Trump did disband the pandemic response team even if a few employees were retained in other divisions if the department. But the only false news is Republicans claiming that is wasn't disbanded, just streamlined. O bullshit as those of us on planet earth call it.
Today’s Trump press conference was next level batshit crazy delusion!!
 
Sucks for them

I think perhaps looking after everyone as best we can might be the best idea.

And the best way to get everyone's lives back on track is suppressing the spread of this virus until we have treatments and a vaccine. That might allow for a gradual lessening of restrictions but exactly what that will look like is hard to know at this stage.

Indeed, sucks for everyone.

Point still stands as to which demographic will, disproportionately, suffer the aftereffects of this, socially and economically.