SARS CoV-2 coronavirus / Covid-19 (No tin foil hat silliness please)

massi83 said:
In Finland 230 people got narcolepsy from that. Over 2.5m had the vaccine, so less than 1 in 10.000 got narcolepsy. Your chance of dying from covid is more than 1 in 10.000, so I would go with the vaccine myself.
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Is my chance that? Or is the population chance that?
What are my chances at 39 and fit as feck? :)
Do we have a number for that?

Less than 1 in 10,000 to be fair, that’s a decent figure. Not what it should be for a vaccine I’d say but not as bad as sometimes made out.
 
Classical Mechanic said:
This chap is one of the advisers to the government and this thread details how the government makes decisions in times like this



This was his response to the herd immunity business



I do think that the initial response was based on some real science.
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Wasnt the modelling a cluster feck? It mught have been science but it was 2 plus 2 equals 5 science and deserves condemnation
 
Regulus Arcturus Black said:
Is my chance that? Or is the population chance that?
What are my chances at 39 and fit as feck? :)
Do we have a number for that?
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Your, I figured you would be around 35-40, probably around 1 in 1.000-3.000 for you and me. Well, population chance of dying is also more than 1 in 10.000 obviously, as I think it will be 0.3%-1.5%
 
Simbo said:
Will work with what side effects? I think any human trial is supposed to be 14 month minimum for this sort of thing. If your going to mass vaccinate everybody on the planet you have to be absolutely-fecking-sure.
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The plot twist is that they gamble on the vaccine and it's a side effect that kills us all by sterilizing everybody.
 
Regulus Arcturus Black said:
Can I do that. :drool:

Seriously though, there has been so much negative press regarding Sweden, completely ignoring how well we have done compared to say Belgium, Holland, Switzerland. Even fexking Trump is getting in on it, the cheek of the fuxker :lol:

But as I said above, even those comparisons are pointless as we’ll never ever know how countries infected rate looked when Italy kicked off.
Could quite easily be that Belgium had 10 times the infected Sweden did on 9th March.
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I don’t think Sweden has had much negative press.

They’ve gambled. People are sensibly looking and discussing. If you think this is bad press, wait until you’re proven wrong (if so).

I honestly don’t know why you’re picking up a sword on a hill right now. Everyone hopes that Sweden has done something avante garde that the rest of the world can follow. Nobody is hoping Sweden fails. But to defend a policy that cannot be judged for months is silly and a waste of your time.

Sweden is great. But Swedish people are more different that the average European than the English. You guys have an odd relationship with disease, evolution and such. Open eugenics programs, forced sterilisation, it doesn’t surprise me that the country is willing to roll the dice and see if you can just ‘Pass through it’.

There’s no racial or bigoted angle to my comments. I’ve never met a Swede I didn’t like. I love the cities, culture. But very few countries have a populace that could handle the route you’re taking.

By all means defend policy. But take on board the fact it will look very callous and plain nutty to an outsider.
 
Regulus Arcturus Black said:
Ahhhh Bastard. No sleep it is then.

But wait... 2 dead in Sweden in my age bracket from 10,000 cases, likely many many more cases. Likely both with underlying conditions.

I’ll wait with the jab.
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You are confusing the fact that the 10.000 is all the cases in Sweden. How many in your age group?
 
UnrelatedPsuedo said:
I don’t think Sweden has had much negative press.

They’ve gambled. People are sensibly looking and discussing. If you think this is bad press, wait until you’re proven wrong (if so).

I honestly don’t know why you’re picking up a sword on a hill right now. Everyone hopes that Sweden has done something avante garde that the rest of the world can follow. Nobody is hoping Sweden fails. But to defend a policy that cannot be judged for months is silly and a waste of your time.

Sweden is great. But Swedish people are more different that the average European than the English. You guys have an odd relationship with disease, evolution and such. Open eugenics programs, forced sterilisation, it doesn’t surprise me that the country is willing to roll the dice and see if you can just ‘Pass through it’.

There’s no racial or bigoted angle to my comments. I’ve never met a Swede I didn’t like. I love the cities, culture. But very few countries have a populace that could handle the route you’re taking.

By all means defend policy. But take on board the fact it will look very callous and plain nutty to an outsider.
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You realise I’m a Manc right @UnrelatedPsuedo?

I think my home country gambled, they had a plan, probably a shit one for such a populated country, they panicked and now it looks like the blind leading the blind over there. They like France closed the barn doors long after the horse had bolted.

Sweden aren’t gambling, they have a clear plan and methods to implement it and the information overload we get daily is light years ahead of home. I feel a shit load safer here that’s for sure.
So far it’s showing.
 
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Regulus Arcturus Black said:
I reckon easily 10,000 30-40 year old have it in Sweden. Probably double that.

We only know the hospitalized ones though I’m afraid.
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Probably quite close. And if 2 of them die, it is right there in my probability range. Remember it can take up to 60 days for someone to die from this, young people especially fight longer.
 
cyberman said:
Wasnt the modelling a cluster feck? It mught have been science but it was 2 plus 2 equals 5 science and deserves condemnation
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They changed track when the Imperial study was released as that gave much worse outcomes but since then that model has been challenged as being far too negative by other experts.

As far as I understand the key error they made was a belief that the British people wouldn’t accept a lockdown so they tried the use ‘nudge theory’ to gently persuade people to behave but that didn’t work.

I think the communication has been poor and Boris has been especially poor when going off message and waffling about ‘theories’. We’re also reaping the legacy of Cameron’s austerity on the NHS and other services. I do think that power is far too centralised in England too and that has hindered responsiveness to the crisis.
 
Classical Mechanic said:
They changed track when the Imperial study was released as that gave much worse outcomes but since then that model has been challenged as being far too negative by other experts.
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Imperial study wasn’t even a published paper, it was far too negative according to everything I’ve heard.

As I say, blind leading the blind over there since that.
 
Classical Mechanic said:
They changed track when the Imperial study was released as that gave much worse outcomes but since then that model has been challenged as being far too negative by other experts.

As far as I understand the key error they made was a belief that the British people wouldn’t accept a lockdown so they tried the use ‘nudge theory’ to gently persuade people to behave but that didn’t work.

I think the communication has been poor and Boris has been especially poor when going off message and waffling about ‘theories’. We’re also reaping the legacy of Cameron’s austerity on the NHS and other services. I do think that power is far too centralised in England too and that has hindered responsiveness to the crisis.
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Indeed.
Your last point about centralised government, which is far worse recently, is one of the many differences between us and Germany.

And this is one of the reasons why Germany has dealt with the CV19 pendemic far better.
 
Regulus Arcturus Black said:
I saw a report that Norway just have a much more professional approach in their nursing homes, that Sweden are a long way behind Norway when it comes to treating our elderley.
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Regarding nursing homes and their routines, I can't really shed any light on how this has been dealt with on a practical level, apart from quarantining staff left, right and centre, but I would guess they're definitely not covered from head to toe in PPE in either of the two countries. Both were ill-prepared in terms of shielding groups at risk.

However, I think it's not unreasonable to assume that given the same professionalism, nurses in a city with a higher percentage of infections will inevitably have a harder time keeping it away from their elderly. Oslo and its suburbs has a higher rate of infection per capita than the rest of the country, and that spills over into the nursing homes. In the Stockholm area, I guess there must be close to (or at least) 100.000 health care workers, and unless they just live their lives going between home and work (and nothing else) in their own cars, it's almost impossible not to have a fair percentage of carriers, many of whom may be asymptomatic. In essence, if Swedish nursing homes are hit harder than the Norwegian ones for the time being, it's really just a logical consequence of having more undiagnosed cases in the general population, and not a failure in an otherwise good tactic. These two go hand in hand, as we've seen in other countries.

Once we ease off here, allowing the virus to make a comeback without rigorous testing, more nursing homes are bound to be affected, unless every caregiver is dressed up like an astronaut.
 
Ahhh, Red Cafe! My go-to news outlet. I love you guys!

How is it that most people who comment here seem so... Well... intelligent? Whenever I make the mistake of going on to Facebook I lose faith in humanity. Sorry to say, but most people on there are idiots. And Facebook is most people.

Somehow we got the perfect platform here. I came to the Caf for football, but I'm getting so much more out of it! Thanks!
 
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Snafu17 said:
Italy's decline has been frustratingly slow.
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Haven't seen too much on them in last few days compared to Spain slowly decreasing new infections.

I assume with Italy there is improvement in the worst hit northern regions but that is being balanced out by many new cases in the South?
 
Sarni said:
Relaxing restrictions is not equivalent of ending lockdown. Full lockdown cannot last more than 2-3 months but partial lockdown has to stay much longer. Things like mass gatherings will not be allowed for a long time after full lockdown ends, for sure.
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You'll more than likely be right I suspect. I certainly wouldn't want to go clubbing or be in a packed pub for quite a while and I suspect many in population are the same so it will be quite a while before those are lifted.

Just the way you orginally worded things and your default position seemed to be that people must be imprisoned in their homes for next 12 months so was a bit confusing. :lol:
 
FootballHQ said:
Haven't seen too much on them in last few days compared to Spain slowly decreasing new infections.

I assume with Italy there is improvement in the worst hit northern regions but that is being balanced out by many new cases in the South?
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Lombardy is decreasing though not as fast as Spanish hardest hit



Comparing, I don't know how well spanish deaths are reported as it doesn't make much sense starting later then Italy, going higher than Italy and having more casing daily than Italy. Also double critical infected
 
Regulus Arcturus Black said:
Ahhhh Bastard. No sleep it is then.

But wait... 2 dead in Sweden in my age bracket from 10,000 cases, likely many many more cases. Likely both with underlying conditions.

I’ll wait with the jab.
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What about the person you come into contact with while contagious who wasn’t able to have the vaccine due to a compromised immune system or the like? You happy to gamble with their life too?
 
Kentonio said:
What about the person you come into contact with while contagious who wasn’t able to have the vaccine due to a compromised immune system or the like? You happy to gamble with their life too?
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I have all my vaccines, baby too, Sweden has 98% voluntary vaccination coverage, but that said, it’ll need to be bloody safe and tested one before it’s going near me or little one considering how low the death rate of this virus is likely to be in the end.
 
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FootballHQ said:
You'll more than likely be right I suspect. I certainly wouldn't want to go clubbing or be in a packed pub for quite a while and I suspect many in population are the same so it will be quite a while before those are lifted.

Just the way you orginally worded things and your default position seemed to be that people must be imprisoned in their homes for next 12 months so was a bit confusing. :lol:
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Lockdown is a bit of a loose term really. We were saying we were in lockdown once schools, bars, restaurants and shopping malls closed yet you were still allowed to have people over and you could walk or exercise as much as you wanted. Restrictions have become way more severe since and it’s still ‘lockdown’.

What really concerns me about where Poland is now is that we have been reporting less than 500 cases a day yet our health system is apparently so overwhelmed that doctors and nurses aren’t sleeping, there is no equipment and large percentage of those who have come in contact with patients got infected themselves. This is at about 20-40 cases per every large city in the country maximum. We aren’t that small of a country with north of 38 million people, if we get halfway to where Spain and Italy were at peak people will be dying on the streets because we don’t seem prepared at all. We went into lockdown very early which has slowed down spread of infection but once we open up again it may get much, much worse. That is why I think we should probably stay in lockdown much longer but we cannot afford it either. It’s really unenviable position, hope we pull through. I work for American company anyway and it seems our jobs will be safe for time being but I fear Polish economy will take a much harder hit than Western Europe.

Discussing this with my brother who’s anti-vaxxer is a bit weird too.
 
For thousands of years, a parasite with no name lived happily among horseshoe bats
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Bit harsh on Mitch.
 
But what exactly lies ahead, or when and how restrictions can be eased -these things are not up to politicians and experts alone. Rather, this will be determined by us all, by our patience and our discipline - especially now, when this is most challenging for us.
[...]
I believe we are at a fork in the road. Already now, in this crisis, it is clear that we have two options: Will it be every man and woman for him-and herself, with us elbowing our way through life, gathering what we can and making sure our own needs are met? Or will we keep up our newly found dedication to each other and to society?
[...]
No, this pandemic is not a war. It does not pit nations against nations, or soldiers against soldiers. Rather, it is a test of our humanity. It brings out the worst and the best in people. Let us show each other our best side!
[...]
And let us do so in Europe, as well. Germany cannot emerge from the crisis strong and healthy if our neighbours do not also become strong and healthy.
[...]
Solidarity, I know, is a lofty concept. But is not each and every one of us now experiencing, in a very personal and existential way, what solidarity means? My actions are essential for the survival of others. Let us hang on to that precious realisation.The solidarity that you are currently showing every day is what we will need even more of in the future.
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Steinmeier did a TV speech today, first time he's done so outside of Christmas. I thought it was decent, especially in going beyond the war metaphors, so I put up a few parts of it. This is the script in English, if anyone is interested.
 
Shane88 said:
It just won't be obeyed. It's bad enough that we're getting summer weather at the beginning of April, not a cloud in the sky here today and I live 5 minutes from the beach. Very few walkers there so far today but try enforcing that throughout months of sunshine in June, July and August.

Not gonna happen.
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Why wouldn't they as lives depend on it? Not like the UK is doing well now partly due to not locking down hard enough.

If people are that irresponsible then lots more will die unnecessarily.
 
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