SARS CoV-2 coronavirus / Covid-19 (No tin foil hat silliness please)

Thank you.

In this tragedy I'm noticing a lot of Western incredulity.

- East Asian countries must be doctoring numbers - because they've done far better than Western countries.
- Why hasn't it hit African countries as much? French researchers even suggesting let's test it on Africans to find out.
- It must already be ripping through in the developing world - because no-one would notice thousand of deaths/infections.

It’s been rampant in this thread, I’ve ignored it mostly as I don’t think it’s malicious just some ignorance and the sub conscious of some people in here that crave bad news. For example the insistence that’s it’s ripping through Africa and Asia in particular even though absolutely nothing so far suggests it is. Which you’d think would be received as good news as opposed to denial and insisting on the opposite.

In the space of 45 minutes walking with the dog leash in one hand and the baby buggy in the other I;

- had to take a detour twice because a bumbling old fool and his cnut wife were coming the opposite direction and wouldn't cross the road in their motorized scooters, so I had to.

- had to tell a group of junkies who were standing outside their pals front gate shouting over about some cnut called "Tam" who "wouldnae dae feck all like that" to move out of the fecking way and make space. Not sure what it is he wouldn't do but I imagine it's related to the strong smell of piss coming from the Pimp Daddy of the pack.

- got a demand for my name and address by a copper in a patrol car because I wouldn't tell him why I was out except, whilst gesticulating to the baby in the buggy and a dog on a leash, saying "I think it's pretty self evident, officer". Asked him if I was being charged with anything that would require such information, which made him promptly drive off.

- stepped in my own dog's shite.

Overall a 9/10 experience.

In general the British people, especially the Scottish do not cross the road to avoid a pigeon directly ahead on the pavement.
 
There were plenty of experts in other countries that had a similar view to the experts in the UK. The outrage seemed more directed at the out of context quotes from Boris that we we‘re going to effectively have a giant pox party to deal with the issue.

Thats not to say that the government haven’t made mistakes but I suspect the core reasons as to why some countries have done better than others will be a lot more complex than the narratives going round on here at the moment.

Regarding demographics for instance, the most populous countries in Europe are

1. Germany 84m
2. UK 68m
3. France 65m
4. Italy 60m
5. Spain 47m

The next most populous western/southern nation is Holland with 17m.

Apart from Germany the worst hit nations are the most populous in Europe. The interesting thing about Germany is that they have 16 federal states within the country that have a lot more autonomy than regions in the UK (not sure about the other nations mentioned), so their response more like a series of smaller nations managing smaller populations as opposed to the Westminster ‘blob’ trying to to coordinate a large country (by European standards). England is also the mostly densely populated or crowded country in Europe which could prove to be another natural disadvantage.

Another seeming outlier in the narrative on here is Belgium. I believe they shutdown really early but have one of the worst deaths per million population rate in the world.

These are just ideas from my own observations but my point is that I feel the final picture will be a lot different to what people are estimating it to be be now.
Did Boris ever actually use the phrase 'herd immunity'? I don't think he did.

I can only find quotes from a couple of the leading scientists advising him. And even then they were only talking about theory rather than strategy.

Indeed, if you look at the plan from 3 March 2020, there was never any hint of going for heard immunity. We've always had a strategy to delay for as long as possible until a vaccine became ready.

https://www.gov.uk/government/publi...-a-guide-to-what-you-can-expect-across-the-uk
 
It’s been rampant in this thread, I’ve ignored it mostly as I don’t think it’s malicious just some ignorance and the sub conscious of some people in here that crave bad news. For example the insistence that’s it’s ripping through Africa and Asia in particular even though absolutely nothing so far suggests it is. Which you’d think would be received as good news as opposed to denial and insisting on the opposite.



In general the British people, especially the Scottish do not cross the road to avoid a pigeon directly ahead on the pavement.
He is not a real pigeon .
 
As far as I can work out the IHME modelling is hot garbage. As of 10th April (2 days more of data!) they've already revised the UK best guesstimate down to 37k. Their previous average is already beyond the current model's upper range confidence interval. I'm pretty much of the opinion that you could follow a trend line with your finger and arrive at a figure range as accurate as the one they spit out of their model.
I probably could ... but I doubt the Guardian would turn my thoughts into a "UK Government is worse in Europe.... again!!!" clickbait headline. Just shit 'journalism'

Politicising stuff (any paper) is tiresome at the best of times... in the middle of a pandemic, it's a bit sick
 
Did Boris ever actually use the phrase 'herd immunity'? I don't think he did.

I can only find quotes from a couple of the leading scientists advising him. And even then they were only talking about theory rather than strategy.

Indeed, if you look at the plan from 3 March 2020, there was never any hint of going for heard immunity. We've always had a strategy to delay for as long as possible until a vaccine became ready.

https://www.gov.uk/government/publi...-a-guide-to-what-you-can-expect-across-the-uk

It came from this interview

Well it’s a very, very important question, and that’s where a lot of the debate has been and one of the theories is, that perhaps you could take it on the chin, take it all in one go and allow the disease, as it were, to move through the population, without taking as many draconian measures. I think we need to strike a balance, I think it is very important, we’ve got a fantastic NHS, we will give them all the support that they need, we will make sure that they have all preparations, all the kit that they need for us to get through it. But I think it would be better if we take all the measures that we can now to stop the peak of the disease being as difficult for the NHS as it might be, I think there are things that we may be able to do.

I think it was poor communication from him overall though.
 
I'd love to know how a lockdown for 6 months, or even 12-18 months would work in practice, I'm not saying this isn't what is ideal to really keep the thing at bay, but they'd literally be nothing left to come out to, and the Covid deaths would be minuscule very quickly, or the lockdown wouldn't be working anyway, which would rapidly make it impossible to sustain to most people.

We need to get through this first wave on this full lockdown, and then be set for the second one, but fully armed this time, testing, tracing, criminal records for those who are non compliment, better public understanding, hospitals armed to the teeth, and hopefully some sort of new treatments, which will hopefully be enough to stop what we're seeing now happening again on this scale before the vaccine turns up.
 
It came from this interview

Well it’s a very, very important question, and that’s where a lot of the debate has been and one of the theories is, that perhaps you could take it on the chin, take it all in one go and allow the disease, as it were, to move through the population, without taking as many draconian measures. I think we need to strike a balance, I think it is very important, we’ve got a fantastic NHS, we will give them all the support that they need, we will make sure that they have all preparations, all the kit that they need for us to get through it. But I think it would be better if we take all the measures that we can now to stop the peak of the disease being as difficult for the NHS as it might be, I think there are things that we may be able to do.

I think it was poor communication from him overall though.
So he basically mentioned that herd immunity was one of the options that existed, but then argued against it.
 
Here's what you've said:

It was an extreme position to believe that 6 months of lockdown was the absolute minimum, and new evidence demonstrated that. Then it was an extreme position that lockdowns wouldn't stop in the next two months, and likely wouldn't stop until vaccine is here. New evidence again demonstrated that, just a couple of days after you said it.

You don't need to say it again and again. You hold an extreme position, you're not the voice of reason swimming in a tide of denial.

Relaxing restrictions is not equivalent of ending lockdown. Full lockdown cannot last more than 2-3 months but partial lockdown has to stay much longer. Things like mass gatherings will not be allowed for a long time after full lockdown ends, for sure.
 
I'd love to know how a lockdown for 6 months, or even 12-18 months would work in practice, I'm not saying this isn't what is ideal to really keep the thing at bay, but they'd literally be nothing left to come out to, and the Covid deaths would be minuscule very quickly, or the lockdown wouldn't be working anyway, which would rapidly make it impossible to sustain to most people.

We need to get through this first wave on this full lockdown, and then be set for the second one, but fully armed this time, testing, tracing, criminal records for those who are non compliment, better public understanding, hospitals armed to the teeth, and hopefully some sort of new treatments, which will hopefully be enough to stop what we're seeing now happening again on this scale before the vaccine turns up.

Most countries aren’t really equipped to do mass testing or efficient social tracing. I guess what will happen in Poland is that we will have tighter restriction in place after Easter and then gradually lift them in the upcoming months. We will open some services early May to allow them to make money again, e.g. barbers, hairdressers, beauty parlors. Then in June I’d expect restaurants and bars to reopen with limited capacity (50% of full capacity or less). Shopping malls have to reopen in May as we cannot afford to keep them closed but there have to be limits to how many people can be inside as well. If it is steady at that point and we don’t see a spike then this would continue until the end of year IMO, and at one point it may be safe to lift capacity restrictions and allow mass gatherings again but it will be a long while.

From my office work point of view I don’t think I will come back to the office this year. Maybe I’ll do one day in the office per week when it’s allowed but definitely I won’t go back to being there 5 times a week. To be fair as I’m now seeing how efficient work from home can be with a good setup I’m not sure I will ever go back to 5 days in the office per week.
 
Relaxing restrictions is not equivalent of ending lockdown. Full lockdown cannot last more than 2-3 months but partial lockdown has to stay much longer. Things like mass gatherings will not be allowed for a long time after full lockdown ends, for sure.

Totally agree but by late June, mass gatherings aside, I think a lot of extreme negative outlook posters are going to be stunned at just 'how normal' things are.
 
Totally agree but by late June, mass gatherings aside, I think a lot of extreme negative outlook posters are going to be stunned at just 'how normal' things are.

Not sure if it’ll be June or later but sometime around Summer I’d guess we will be able to go out almost everywhere. Limited capacity, travel restrictions and ban on mass gatherings will continue though so not everything will be as normal and it will be noticeable.
 
Most countries aren’t really equipped to do mass testing or efficient social tracing. I guess what will happen in Poland is that we will have tighter restriction in place after Easter and then gradually lift them in the upcoming months. We will open some services early May to allow them to make money again, e.g. barbers, hairdressers, beauty parlors. Then in June I’d expect restaurants and bars to reopen with limited capacity (50% of full capacity or less). Shopping malls have to reopen in May as we cannot afford to keep them closed but there have to be limits to how many people can be inside as well. If it is steady at that point and we don’t see a spike then this would continue until the end of year IMO, and at one point it may be safe to lift capacity restrictions and allow mass gatherings again but it will be a long while.

From my office work point of view I don’t think I will come back to the office this year. Maybe I’ll do one day in the office per week when it’s allowed but definitely I won’t go back to being there 5 times a week. To be fair as I’m now seeing how efficient work from home can be with a good setup I’m not sure I will ever go back to 5 days in the office per week.

I don't disagree with how most countries will emerge from this, it can work with testing as the backbone to it, and I think people will accept this scenario very readily. Staggered school timing, reduced week, set classes, etc, that has been mentioned seems like a good idea to get this back up and running as well.

And the last paragraph seems like a positive that might come from this, people been first forced to do it, but then finding a different ways to do things is actually better, and will ultimately benefit the world.
 
Not sure if it’ll be June or later but sometime around Summer I’d guess we will be able to go out almost everywhere. Limited capacity, travel restrictions and ban on mass gatherings will continue though so not everything will be as normal and it will be noticeable.

How do you know? Out of interest?
Even the experts don't know for sure, unless they're hiding it amongst themselves.
 
Just seen Priti Patel doing the daily update today so they've let here out of the basement she's been hiding in.

Reminds me of when Dougal did that mass in Father Ted. :lol:
 
When this started, we were told that around 3% of cases would likely be fatal and that most would be mild. I'm not a great mathematician but it seems to me that the fatalities appear to be more like 10%? And the stats here don't fill me with confidence https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
 
When this started, we were told that around 3% of cases would likely be fatal and that most would be mild. I'm not a great mathematician but it seems to me that the fatalities appear to be more like 10%? And the stats here don't fill me with confidence https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

The number of people diagnosed is not reflective of the number people who have got it. The countries that are doing the most testing (Germany and SK) come around 2%
 
Does Corona virus onset justify Brexit? European answer hardly coordinated. Asking UK posters.

Would you be or feel safer inside EU?
 
Just seen Priti Patel doing the daily update today so they've let here out of the basement she's been hiding in.

Reminds me of when Dougal did that mass in Father Ted. :lol:

It has been tough for her tbf. She had only just managed to dismiss a lot of these carers, cleaners and service staff as being unskilled and inessential to the UK's immigration plans, when suddenly they become key workers. Putting her in a position where she might have to actually show an ounce of compassion or empathy towards them is really asking too much.
 
Great idea to have someone accused of bullying launching a campaign against abuse...
 
Pritti being hammered by the journalists. :lol: That's why we haven't seen much of her, easy target and they know it.
 
Just seen Priti Patel doing the daily update today so they've let here out of the basement she's been hiding in.

Reminds me of when Dougal did that mass in Father Ted. :lol:

She was awful at reading the statement but she's actually doing a lot better talking off the cuff.

Some of the questions being asked are inane. Give a date when the PPE will be delivered, how can you give a date? This is an unprecedented situation, you can't pull it out of your arse and the logistics issues are crazy.
 
Does Corona virus onset justify Brexit? European answer hardly coordinated. Asking UK posters.

Would you be or feel safer inside EU?

Well, for all the questions about sovereignty that Brexit brought up it just shows that individual countries have a lot of power to make their own decisions and 'go their own path' given each country's response to the crisis. So much for the superstate rhetoric of the Brexitiers.

It's after this that the real questions will be asked. Tensions will be quite high all over the place. A strong and united Europe is the best thing to hope for but sadly that might not be the case.
 
There's something so fecking evil about that Priti Patel. I genuinely find her so eerie. I don't think there's any politician that makes my skin crawl like she does. Maybe Pence, he has that sinister shit going on as well.
 
Pritti being hammered by the journalists. :lol: That's why we haven't seen much of her, easy target and they know it.

I find all MPs quite strange at times. They are clearly very well educated and trained to speak well publicly yet when it comes to making an apology they avoid it and go all around the houses. I get that they don't want to necessarily take responsibility but with regards to the journo who was asking her to apologise for the lack of PPE why not just say of course the government apologises etc etc and we are doing x,y,z to improve and this is the reason why we are struggling with it etc.

Is it that bigger deal to say that?
 
Does Corona virus onset justify Brexit? European answer hardly coordinated. Asking UK posters.

Would you be or feel safer inside EU?
I would say no as the fall out will be exacerbated by Brexit. It has shown that Europe is less United though, Northern Europe is on top, Southern Europe on the bottom (excuse the truism).
 
https://edition.cnn.com/2020/04/10/china/africans-guangzhou-china-coronavirus-hnk-intl/index.html
Africans in Guangzhou are on edge, after many are left homeless amid rising xenophobia as China fights a second wave of coronavirus

The African community in Guangzhou is on edge after widespread accounts were shared on social media of people being left homeless this week, as China's warnings against imported coronavirus cases stoke anti-foreigner sentiment.

In the southern Chinese city, Africans have been evicted from their homes by landlords and turned away from hotels, despite many claiming to have no recent travel history or known contact with Covid-19 patients.

CNN interviewed more than two dozen Africans living in Guangzhou many of whom told of the same experiences: being left without a home, being subject to random testing for Covid-19, and being quarantined for 14 days in their homes, despite having no symptoms or contact with known patients.
 
She was awful at reading the statement but she's actually doing a lot better talking off the cuff.

Some of the questions being asked are inane. Give a date when the PPE will be delivered, how can you give a date? This is an unprecedented situation, you can't pull it out of your arse and the logistics issues are crazy.

The problem there is that Johnson initially did give a date, saying that PPE would arrive for every care worker by the end of the week in what was described as a "gamechanging" promise. That was back in the middle of March.

Once your government makes that kind of specific promise you leave yourself open to these kind of questions when it doesn't happen.
 
regards the UK numbers, almost 1 in 4 tested has the virus. How much extrapolation can you do there? more than 15million cases by the time this is over?
 
She was awful at reading the statement but she's actually doing a lot better talking off the cuff.

Some of the questions being asked are inane. Give a date when the PPE will be delivered, how can you give a date? This is an unprecedented situation, you can't pull it out of your arse and the logistics issues are crazy.
Yes make them give a date, make them be accountable and stop swallowing their lies.
Hancock has been bleating on about how he is 'totally committed' to doing 100k tests a day for ages and we're managing about 18k. Why? He should be flayed alive for our health response, particularly blaming medics of wasting PPE.
Johnson has somehow managed to assemble a cabinet that has bigger pricks than him in it- Hancock, Raab and Patel.