SARS CoV-2 coronavirus / Covid-19 (No tin foil hat silliness please)

She was awful at reading the statement but she's actually doing a lot better talking off the cuff.

Some of the questions being asked are inane. Give a date when the PPE will be delivered, how can you give a date? This is an unprecedented situation, you can't pull it out of your arse and the logistics issues are crazy.

Journalists showing they're absolute arseholes all the way through this tbh, just sound like absolute knobs who think they're better than everyone else. Smirks on their faces when they ask a question they know can't be answered.
 
We're so fecking weak we almost deserve to be annihilated by this virus.

Imagine how people handled WWII. Six years of sheuggle and we can't even manage three weeks without getting tied of it and having trouble coping.

I guess I can take comfort in the fact that no matter what the circumstances people will invariably make me sick, the pathetic fecks.

Well said. People moaning about this lockdown are like fecking babies.
 
We're so fecking weak we almost deserve to be annihilated by this virus.

Imagine how people handled WWII. Six years of struggle and we can't even manage three weeks without getting tied of it and having trouble coping.

I guess I can take comfort in the fact that no matter what the circumstances people will invariably make me sick, the pathetic fecks.
Not to mention that same population was thrown from the Great Depression straight into WWII... and many also had lived through WWI.
 
Replace the journalists with medics and other allied health professionals during these briefings
 
regards the UK numbers, almost 1 in 4 tested has the virus. How much extrapolation can you do there? more than 15million cases by the time this is over?
None. Aren't they only testing sick people?
 
Some of the questions being asked are inane. Give a date when the PPE will be delivered, how can you give a date? This is an unprecedented situation, you can't pull it out of your arse and the logistics issues are crazy.

Why wouldn’t you be able to give at least a target date? It’s not something unquantifiable, they have either placed orders for import or manufacturing and will have expected due dates from those, and have set up a vast logistics program for delivery. It’s fair enough to expect a target date range but explain that due to the difficulties that it’s not possible to guarantee it.
 
Well said. People moaning about this lockdown are like fecking babies.
Too right. I can't get any almond milk at the moment, but did you hear me moan about it? feck no! I did the proper thing and broke into my neighbour's house to steal his.
 
How do you know? Out of interest?
Even the experts don't know for sure, unless they're hiding it amongst themselves.

This is basically what happened in Wuhan though they had stronger restrictions during lockdown than pretty much all bar Italy and a Spain and they were never hit as hard as European countries either if you trust official numbers. Other Chinese states apparently had less severe restrictions and kept them for about 3 months.
 
There were plenty of experts in other countries that had a similar view to the experts in the UK. The outrage seemed more directed at the out of context quotes from Boris that we we‘re going to effectively have a giant pox party to deal with the issue.

Thats not to say that the government haven’t made mistakes but I suspect the core reasons as to why some countries have done better than others will be a lot more complex than the narratives going round on here at the moment.

Regarding demographics for instance, the most populous countries in Europe are

1. Germany 84m
2. UK 68m
3. France 65m
4. Italy 60m
5. Spain 47m

The next most populous western/southern nation is Holland with 17m.

Apart from Germany the worst hit nations are the most populous in Europe. The interesting thing about Germany is that they have 16 federal states within the country that have a lot more autonomy than regions in the UK (not sure about the other nations mentioned), so their response more like a series of smaller nations managing smaller populations as opposed to the Westminster ‘blob’ trying to to coordinate a large country (by European standards). England is also the mostly densely populated or crowded country in Europe which could prove to be another natural disadvantage.

Another seeming outlier in the narrative on here is Belgium. I believe they shutdown really early but have one of the worst deaths per million population rate in the world.

These are just ideas from my own observations but my point is that I feel the final picture will be a lot different to what people are estimating it to be be now.
Your observations make sense. To be clear, I wasn't saying this explains the current UK situation. But do we really have any reason to believe that the initial government approach was based on any real science? They wouldn't say what published research their decisions were relying on. The chief 'scientific' advisor and others have repeatedly spoken in favour of the approach that was quickly abandoned after the outcry from experts. So it wasn't just based on a misunderstood tweet. Being a 'scientific' advisor to the government you're essentially required to not contradict the government. I've no doubt many other countries had similar economic considerations; the same messed up scientific advisory dynamic being shared by other countries wouldn't surprise me either.
 
How will the news that reinfection is possible effect the crisis? Does it mean that the virus morphs more than we initially thought making it more like other corona virus types that hard to make effective vaccines for? Will it make lockdowns pointless as people can reactivate and then infect at any time?

Worrying development that might make all our measures much less effective if you are susceptible to the virus in a really bad way.
 
Not to mention that same population was thrown from the Great Depression straight into WWII... and many also had lived through WWI.

Again: that stat comes from Germany, after it seems like the country will avoid a health care collapse. I think it's quite a stretch to assume people would feel the same if the situation was closer to what's unfolding in the UK or what happened in Italy. If similar questions get similar answers in certain other countries then fair enough.
 
I reckon this is the real slow down and not China's supposed slowdown. With that said, Italy might see another upsurge next week or the week after because of Easter.
There's a quarantine in effect, so there shouldn't be one. If anything you'd think most new infections are related with people that are still going to work.
 
I reckon this is the real slow down and not China's supposed slowdown. With that said, Italy might see another upsurge next week or the week after because of Easter.
Is this news? There were cases of reinfection back in February, doesn't seem to have altered anyone's methods of tackling the virus?
 
We're so fecking weak we almost deserve to be annihilated by this virus.

Imagine how people handled WWII. Six years of struggle and we can't even manage three weeks without getting tied of it and having trouble coping.

I guess I can take comfort in the fact that no matter what the circumstances people will invariably make me sick, the pathetic fecks.
I imagine that if the virus was shooting people in the face they would be more likely to stay inside. There's a lot less of a visible and an immediate threat with COVID. It's a pointless comparison.
 
I feel for people living in busy cities/towns. Living in a rural village it's easy for us to go out for a nice walk and maybe only come across one other person, we don't have to worry about peak times and things like that.
 
Not to mention that same population was thrown from the Great Depression straight into WWII... and many also had lived through WWI.

Of course, folks back then also had their own issues with self-restraint and viral diseases. Even with a concrete understanding of the risks and a simple solution to avoid them, syphilis got around rightly. Personally I think people throw a bit too much morality into discussions about self-restraint, overlooking the often overwhelming biological impulses it's in contest with.
 
There's a quarantine in effect, so there shouldn't be one. If anything you'd think most new infections are related with people that are still going to work.
The quarantine has worked in slowing down abd reducing the numbers from the peak but its not a complete isolation, people still go shopping and interact with each other. Moreover, asymptomatic can still spread the virus especially if they haven't been tested. Italy was always going to suffer because people typically live with their families even in their 30s and 40s.

Unfortunately I expect 25k deaths by the end of this lockdown.
 
Are you joking? These people are politicians and are accountable for their actions and decisions. The cabinet is made up of rabid Brexieers who have made it an incredibly uncomfortable place for immigrant workers to ply their trade.


Here is the warning 4 years ago that they chose to ignore:
Brexit 'will make NHS staff shortages worse'

Here is the reality:
More than 22,000 EU nationals have left NHS since Brexit referendum, figures show

If now, during a crisis, when we are building emergency hospitals that we do not have enough staff to actually service is not the time to hold these people accountable for their statements and their decisions that have lead to this farcical level of unpreparedness, when exactly do you think that time will be?

Let them crack on with blaming footballers for earning too much money, NHS staff for frivolous use of PPE equipment and while mortality figures are smashing ahead as #1 in Europe, we should all be using this as a time to celebrate Boris's sudoku spirit instead.

You can feck right off if you expect me to be OK with that attitude.
Ok, firstly what did hancock blame footballers for? Im not sure he blamed them for anything, certainly not in relation to the coronavirus.

Regarding staffing numbers, i think its true to say that most countries are struggling with skilled trained icu doctors and nurses at this time. From whats been reported its a very skilled and specialist job for someone to intubate someone with coronavirus.
Now i dont know if thats the sort of person that has left the NHS as you have alluded to or not.
I do come back to my original point though that the governments imigration policy should not be debated at this time.
I see Germany have been taking patients from Spain and italy, i also see china have sent doctors to other countries.
As other people have pointed out, no western country has been able to contain this pandemic without resorting to measures unheard of in all our lifetimes.
You accused matt hancock of 'blaming' footballers in your post, it seems to me that people want to blame all sorts of things for our situation. Blame china, blame Trump, blame Tories, Blame idiots not following the guidelines.
Truth is as far as i can see, this has been a perfect storm brewing for years helped by so many things, international travel, secretive governments covering up, high density of population, wet markets, etc etc etc. You seem keen to blame government cuts but in my opinion there are so many more facets to this
 
It's the same test from everything I know. The test kit is what you use to to preserve the sample you take from someone.

The sample is then tested in a lab in a PCR. Funnily enough, my friends company in the middle are looking at supplying the kits from South Korea in different countries in the middle east. He sent me the sales pack for it
I've seen a small article in German where the director for the institute for virology of the university clinic Leipzig put the certainty at 99.9% and the director of the institute for virology of the technical university of Dresden is quoted with "more than 97%". All assuming that swabs are taken correctly I guess.
@worldgonemad

Here's a summary of serology tests to date. There's actually a lot more, in different states of crappiness. Don't trust the data for accuracy, sensitivity or specificity but it will give you a sense of where we are heading.

http://www.centerforhealthsecurity....rology/Serology-based-tests-for-COVID-19.html
Thanks guys for replies
@senorgregster thats some reading, i will take a look later
 
But do we really have any reason to believe that the initial government approach was based on any real science?

This chap is one of the advisers to the government and this thread details how the government makes decisions in times like this



This was his response to the herd immunity business



I do think that the initial response was based on some real science.
 
The big difference in the countries response has been timing of the restrictions, for instance no visitors for the elderly dwelling was Iceland first action 6 weeks ago, but Sweden just took that measure a week ago. Now it seems the virus has hit the elderly bad in Stockholm.

Some Swedish health expert (the Swedish health expert, I think, at least that's the way Norwegian media has treated him) claimed that the difference in death rate between Sweden and Norway (and the other Nordic countries, but it was a response to a Norwegian journalist) is that 1) Sweden is further along in the infection cycle and 2) the elderly homes (and such) in Sweden were hit much harder than Norway so far. He didn't really have an explanation for why elderly homes were hit harder, beyond maybe random chance.
 
Some Swedish health expert (the Swedish health expert, I think, at least that's the way Norwegian media has treated him) claimed that the difference in death rate between Sweden and Norway (and the other Nordic countries, but it was a response to a Norwegian journalist) is that 1) Sweden is further along in the infection cycle and 2) the elderly homes (and such) in Sweden were hit much harder than Norway so far. He didn't really have an explanation for why elderly homes were hit harder, beyond maybe random chance.

I saw a report that Norway just have a much more professional approach in their nursing homes, that Sweden are a long way behind Norway when it comes to treating our elderley.

What I will say to @Oldham is that the missus gran is in a short term care home for dementia, and we haven’t been able to visit her for over a month. We look at her through a window and she’s beyond confused, depressed and sad. Poor thing, what a time to end up there, she just gets to see her great grand daughter through a window and can’t hug her. It’s devastating and she calls us 10 times a day :(

So yeah, the government “banned” visitors but many many nursing and care homes had taken that step a long long time before due to health ministry recommendations.

What’s likely is that Iceland just have a shit load less people than anywhere, Stockholm region alone has almost 7 times the population of all of I Iceland, hence why you guys are no doubt doing so well.

People also can’t grip that Iceland may have had 200 infected on 1st March and Stockholm 10,000, maybe Norway had 30,000 but are just fecking awesome. We’ll never know these figures.
Gothenburg figures (also bigger population than Iceland) say the number of infected in Stockholm when it all kicked off in Europe was the bigger problem, not the easier restrictions.
 
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Do you know of any website that provides the uncombined figures for the UK?

They're not combined. What they release as far as I know is hospital deaths. BBC had an article looking into all deaths at care homes and found most end up in hospital at that time of looking so not many die at the care homes so far.

As for the bolded point where does that come from?

It goes back to my original post you quoted, the BBC article about UK care home deaths and the French 4599 care home deaths so far from March.
 
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I saw a report that Norway just have a much more professional approach in their nursing homes, that Sweden are a long way behind Norway when it comes to treating our elderley.

What I will say to @Oldham is that the missus gran is in a short term care home for dementia, and we haven’t been able to visit her for over a month. We look at her through a window and she’s beyond confused, depressed and sad. Poor thing, what a time to end up there, she just gets to see her great grand daughter through a window and can’t hug her. It’s devastating and she calls us 10 times a day :(

So yeah, the government “banned” visitors but many many nursing and care homes had taken that step a long long time before due to health ministry recommendations.

Yeah, maybe. Whatever else is true, it's going to be very interesting to see the end result of all of this. Hopefully we get a better idea of how the spread happened, what went wrong, what could have been the correct move, etc. Right now it seems like Norwegians mostly approve of the Norwegian way of doing it, and Swedes approve of the Swedish way of doing it, with some dissenters here and there. For example, it will be interesting to see how the Swedish economy comes out of this, compared to the Norwegian economy. Obviously this will be skewed by Norway having the sovereign wealth fun to fund emergency measures, but Sweden is a rich, well-run country as well.
 
Yup. Swine flu vaccine dished out some nasty narcolepsy right?

Give me Covid-19 over that.
In Finland 230 people got narcolepsy from that. Over 2.5m had the vaccine, so less than 1 in 10.000 got narcolepsy. Your chance of dying from covid is more than 1 in 10.000, so I would go with the vaccine myself.