All sorts of corners have been cut, including proper validation. True for the RNA based tests and even worse for the antibody tests just coming out. Bottom line, I wouldn't trust any comparisons just yet. They need some WHO standard samples for that.
SARS CoV-2 coronavirus / Covid-19 (No tin foil hat silliness please)
- Thread starter Don't Kill Bill
- Start date
On an earlier page (I can't keep up with it), someone said Worldometers was not a good site for accuracy.
Does anyone know of a more accurate site (UK specific bit world also)?
Does anyone know of a more accurate site (UK specific bit world also)?
Hard to say. There are reports of people occasionally getting it a second time but the suspicion is that the original test was a false positive.
Are you joking? These people are politicians and are accountable for their actions and decisions. The cabinet is made up of rabid Brexieers who have made it an incredibly uncomfortable place for immigrant workers to ply their trade.
Here is the warning 4 years ago that they chose to ignore:
Brexit 'will make NHS staff shortages worse'
Here is the reality:
More than 22,000 EU nationals have left NHS since Brexit referendum, figures show
If now, during a crisis, when we are building emergency hospitals that we do not have enough staff to actually service is not the time to hold these people accountable for their statements and their decisions that have lead to this farcical level of unpreparedness, when exactly do you think that time will be?
Let them crack on with blaming footballers for earning too much money, NHS staff for frivolous use of PPE equipment and while mortality figures are smashing ahead as #1 in Europe, we should all be using this as a time to celebrate Boris's sudoku spirit instead.
You can feck right off if you expect me to be OK with that attitude.
This seems to be one of the most reliable:
https://www.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6
For UK specifics this site is probably the best (If you open up the map you can zoom in to cases in your general area):
https://www.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/ae5dda8f86814ae99dde905d2a9070ae
The worldometers one seems pretty accurate for countries with established reporting procedures and on the headline figures (deaths, cases, daily deaths, daily cases).
There won't be much support for serious restrictions long-term. The mood of the population is already changing.
There was an interesting article in the Spiegel on this subject yesterday.
Change of mood in the corona crisis
Dangerous annoyance
So far, the Germans have endured the measures for corona containment in a disciplined manner. A weekly psychogram now reveals an alarming change.
Psychologists have a name for a phenomenon that could soon prove to be a major challenge for Germany's crisis management in Corona times: "Disaster Fatigue". It is a term used to describe the weariness in the face of too much bad news; the feeling of annoyance that makes us rebel against an excess of disaster reports.
Cornelia Betsch is a psychologist at the University of Erfurt and has made the explosive diagnosis. Week after week Betsch evaluates the answers of 1000 respondents, on the basis of which she tries to determine the mood of the Germans during the corona crisis. In the first five weeks of the crisis "everything went well", the psychologist states. Now she has sounded the alarm for the first time.
The evaluation of the current survey is worrying: slowly, people's fear of the rampant corona virus is fading. Confidence that the health care system will be able to cope with the number of Covid-19 patients has grown. This is also reflected in a survey by the Civey opinion research institute. According to the survey, 62 percent of Germans are "clearly" or "rather optimistic" that the country will come through the crisis well.
As fear of the virus wanes, people's economic concerns will come to the fore. Acceptance for the state-imposed ban on contact, for the closure of schools and businesses is crumbling. Discontent is growing, especially among the younger generation. They suffer particularly from boredom, loneliness and fear of the future.
At first everything seemed fine
"In Germany, unlike in many other countries, we rely predominantly on voluntary action," says Betsch. "It is particularly important to recognize such signals early on and to react to them."
At the beginning of March, when it was clear that the Corona pandemic would not be stopped, Betsch decided to draw up a psychogram of the population: She wanted to record as precisely as possible the fears and concerns with which the Germans would react to the virus and the government measures to contain it.
In the meantime, COSMO, as the Erfurt psychologists' study developed in cooperation with the Robert Koch Institute is called, has become an important instrument of epidemic policy. Betsch proudly points out that around 40 other countries around the world have taken the Erfurt method as a model to be able to capture moods in the country as quickly as possible.
Initially, COSMO had mainly reassuring things to report: The Germans' risk awareness increased rapidly, they appeared to be well informed, and there was a great deal of understanding for the government measures. Many fears also proved to be unjustified or exaggerated: "For example, we discovered that the much-lamented corona parties hardly exist. Discrimination and exclusion are also rare," says Betsch.
Rebellion or habituation effect?
However, the evaluation of the sixth COSMO week suddenly showed that something was different: instead of 54 percent before, only 45 percent of those surveyed now state that their thoughts are constantly revolving around the corona virus. Whereas 60 percent of the people had been afraid of the disease in the weeks before, this proportion was now only 52 percent. Conversely, the number of those who consider the measures to be excessive has increased.
Is this a sign of genuine rebellion or just a familiarization effect? Is the impression gaining ground that the worst is already over? Or has the public debate on exit strategies raised expectations that the exit restrictions will soon be lifted? The COSMO data do not provide any information on the causes of the change in sentiment. They only show that something is happening.
Dirk Brockmann of Berlin's Humboldt University can confirm this. He evaluates movement data from mobile phones and found that Germans who have been staying at home for three weeks are leaving their homes again. The data is unmistakable evidence of the reawakening of the urge to move.
On behalf of the Robert Koch Institute, Brockmann evaluates mobile phone data provided by Telekom. This allows him to identify the flow of traffic in the country and thus estimate the routes by which the virus is spreading throughout Germany. As a side effect, he was able to see how the pattern of movement changed during the shutdown: The mobility of the Germans dropped abruptly by around 40 percent.
Then came the call from Erfurt. "Mrs Betsch asked: We see a change in our data. Do you see something in yours too?", Brockmann said. At that time, the Berlin researcher had not yet noticed any effect. Only shortly afterwards an irritated employee approached him: "Look," he said. "There's something funny. Mobility is increasing again."
Betsch and Brockmann compared their findings and were fascinated to see how well they matched. "One may mistrust every record for itself," says Brockmann. "But if there are such similar results from two completely different sources, then it probably won't be a coincidence." Betsch now considers it urgent to react to the change of mood in the country. "We must make people aware that we must not gamble away our profits now," she says.
In fact, in the week before Easter there had been calls for relaxation of regulations and supposed signals of an improvement in the situation. Scientific studies seemed to suggest that children are rarely carriers of the virus and that schools may soon be reopened. The cross-sectional study from Heinsberg, which has since become controversial, assumed that at least there, there was an increased infestation and herd immunity of humans. Politicians also debated a possible exit from the lockdown more intensively.
On the other hand, there are urgent warnings from the scientific community that the measures should not be relaxed, but should even be tightened. A study has also simulated how Easter visits to the family could once again accelerate the spread of the pandemic in Germany and undo the containment achieved so far. Betsch also sees this danger: "We have all incurred high costs so far. If we slack off now, it was all in vain.
Dangerous annoyance
So far, the Germans have endured the measures for corona containment in a disciplined manner. A weekly psychogram now reveals an alarming change.
Psychologists have a name for a phenomenon that could soon prove to be a major challenge for Germany's crisis management in Corona times: "Disaster Fatigue". It is a term used to describe the weariness in the face of too much bad news; the feeling of annoyance that makes us rebel against an excess of disaster reports.
Cornelia Betsch is a psychologist at the University of Erfurt and has made the explosive diagnosis. Week after week Betsch evaluates the answers of 1000 respondents, on the basis of which she tries to determine the mood of the Germans during the corona crisis. In the first five weeks of the crisis "everything went well", the psychologist states. Now she has sounded the alarm for the first time.
The evaluation of the current survey is worrying: slowly, people's fear of the rampant corona virus is fading. Confidence that the health care system will be able to cope with the number of Covid-19 patients has grown. This is also reflected in a survey by the Civey opinion research institute. According to the survey, 62 percent of Germans are "clearly" or "rather optimistic" that the country will come through the crisis well.
As fear of the virus wanes, people's economic concerns will come to the fore. Acceptance for the state-imposed ban on contact, for the closure of schools and businesses is crumbling. Discontent is growing, especially among the younger generation. They suffer particularly from boredom, loneliness and fear of the future.
At first everything seemed fine
"In Germany, unlike in many other countries, we rely predominantly on voluntary action," says Betsch. "It is particularly important to recognize such signals early on and to react to them."
At the beginning of March, when it was clear that the Corona pandemic would not be stopped, Betsch decided to draw up a psychogram of the population: She wanted to record as precisely as possible the fears and concerns with which the Germans would react to the virus and the government measures to contain it.
In the meantime, COSMO, as the Erfurt psychologists' study developed in cooperation with the Robert Koch Institute is called, has become an important instrument of epidemic policy. Betsch proudly points out that around 40 other countries around the world have taken the Erfurt method as a model to be able to capture moods in the country as quickly as possible.
Initially, COSMO had mainly reassuring things to report: The Germans' risk awareness increased rapidly, they appeared to be well informed, and there was a great deal of understanding for the government measures. Many fears also proved to be unjustified or exaggerated: "For example, we discovered that the much-lamented corona parties hardly exist. Discrimination and exclusion are also rare," says Betsch.
Rebellion or habituation effect?
However, the evaluation of the sixth COSMO week suddenly showed that something was different: instead of 54 percent before, only 45 percent of those surveyed now state that their thoughts are constantly revolving around the corona virus. Whereas 60 percent of the people had been afraid of the disease in the weeks before, this proportion was now only 52 percent. Conversely, the number of those who consider the measures to be excessive has increased.
Is this a sign of genuine rebellion or just a familiarization effect? Is the impression gaining ground that the worst is already over? Or has the public debate on exit strategies raised expectations that the exit restrictions will soon be lifted? The COSMO data do not provide any information on the causes of the change in sentiment. They only show that something is happening.
Dirk Brockmann of Berlin's Humboldt University can confirm this. He evaluates movement data from mobile phones and found that Germans who have been staying at home for three weeks are leaving their homes again. The data is unmistakable evidence of the reawakening of the urge to move.
On behalf of the Robert Koch Institute, Brockmann evaluates mobile phone data provided by Telekom. This allows him to identify the flow of traffic in the country and thus estimate the routes by which the virus is spreading throughout Germany. As a side effect, he was able to see how the pattern of movement changed during the shutdown: The mobility of the Germans dropped abruptly by around 40 percent.
Then came the call from Erfurt. "Mrs Betsch asked: We see a change in our data. Do you see something in yours too?", Brockmann said. At that time, the Berlin researcher had not yet noticed any effect. Only shortly afterwards an irritated employee approached him: "Look," he said. "There's something funny. Mobility is increasing again."
Betsch and Brockmann compared their findings and were fascinated to see how well they matched. "One may mistrust every record for itself," says Brockmann. "But if there are such similar results from two completely different sources, then it probably won't be a coincidence." Betsch now considers it urgent to react to the change of mood in the country. "We must make people aware that we must not gamble away our profits now," she says.
In fact, in the week before Easter there had been calls for relaxation of regulations and supposed signals of an improvement in the situation. Scientific studies seemed to suggest that children are rarely carriers of the virus and that schools may soon be reopened. The cross-sectional study from Heinsberg, which has since become controversial, assumed that at least there, there was an increased infestation and herd immunity of humans. Politicians also debated a possible exit from the lockdown more intensively.
On the other hand, there are urgent warnings from the scientific community that the measures should not be relaxed, but should even be tightened. A study has also simulated how Easter visits to the family could once again accelerate the spread of the pandemic in Germany and undo the containment achieved so far. Betsch also sees this danger: "We have all incurred high costs so far. If we slack off now, it was all in vain.
tl;dr:
- mobility increasing again since last week
- support for restrictions waning
It's the same test from everything I know. The test kit is what you use to to preserve the sample you take from someone.
The sample is then tested in a lab in a PCR. Funnily enough, my friends company in the middle are looking at supplying the kits from South Korea in different countries in the middle east. He sent me the sales pack for it
The issue with this is it doesn't really seem to be the Brits singling out the UK for starters.
I've seen a small article in German where the director for the institute for virology of the university clinic Leipzig put the certainty at 99.9% and the director of the institute for virology of the technical university of Dresden is quoted with "more than 97%". All assuming that swabs are taken correctly I guess.
I don't need to wait for after the pandemic to know that. I do need to wait for it to end to start waging war against them.
Will you wait until after Trump's term(s) ends to conclude he's an idiot?
This was addressed by the Korean expert from the video posted ages ago. Provided the translation is correct, according to him, he says that yes, you can get reinfected after recovering. He says this is called "reactivation". It is about 8 minutes in. I don't think he talks about it again but not 100% sure.
Last edited:
In all honesty I'd guess a lot of it is just people trying to reassure themselves that their own leaders are doing things better at a point when it can often be difficult to tell.
Plus countries like the UK and US carried pre-existing narratives into the crisis that were fairly widespread in other countries. In the US' case it was that President was inept, in the UK's case it was the anti-expert British exceptionalism angle that comes from years of the Brexit debate. Those narratives heighten external criticism once the UK and US appear to be struggling more than other countries.
Updated graph of deaths in England by day of death. 866 new deaths as of 5pm yesterday +101 from the day before. Orange is a 5 day trailing average (last 5-7 days will see large to moderate upward changes).
Updated graph of deaths in England by day of death. 823 new deaths as of 5pm yesterday -43 from the day before but it's a weekend. Orange is a 5 day trailing average (last 5-7 days will see large to moderate upward changes):
I disagree, but ok.
I signed up, then they said my Id couldn't be confirmed and it seems like it's closed now so can't sign up again.
Last edited:
Good luck, stay safe
@worldgonemad
Here's a summary of serology tests to date. There's actually a lot more, in different states of crappiness. Don't trust the data for accuracy, sensitivity or specificity but it will give you a sense of where we are heading.
http://www.centerforhealthsecurity....rology/Serology-based-tests-for-COVID-19.html
Here's a summary of serology tests to date. There's actually a lot more, in different states of crappiness. Don't trust the data for accuracy, sensitivity or specificity but it will give you a sense of where we are heading.
http://www.centerforhealthsecurity....rology/Serology-based-tests-for-COVID-19.html
The UK followed its experts. There’s been a few foreign posters in the past few pages alone, Norway and Portugal IIRC that said their governments binned of their own experts advice by locking down early.
Thank you.
In this tragedy I'm noticing a lot of Western incredulity.
- East Asian countries must be doctoring numbers - because they've done far better than Western countries.
- Why hasn't it hit African countries as much? French researchers even suggesting let's test it on Africans to find out.
- It must already be ripping through in the developing world - because no-one would notice thousand of deaths/infections.
In the space of 45 minutes walking with the dog leash in one hand and the baby buggy in the other I;
- had to take a detour twice because a bumbling old fool and his cnut wife were coming the opposite direction and wouldn't cross the road in their motorized scooters, so I had to.
- had to tell a group of junkies who were standing outside their pals front gate shouting over about some cnut called "Tam" who "wouldnae dae feck all like that" to move out of the fecking way and make space. Not sure what it is he wouldn't do but I imagine it's related to the strong smell of piss coming from the Pimp Daddy of the pack.
- got a demand for my name and address by a copper in a patrol car because I wouldn't tell him why I was out except, whilst gesticulating to the baby in the buggy and a dog on a leash, saying "I think it's pretty self evident, officer". Asked him if I was being charged with anything that would require such information, which made him promptly drive off.
- stepped in my own dog's shite.
Overall a 9/10 experience.
- had to take a detour twice because a bumbling old fool and his cnut wife were coming the opposite direction and wouldn't cross the road in their motorized scooters, so I had to.
- had to tell a group of junkies who were standing outside their pals front gate shouting over about some cnut called "Tam" who "wouldnae dae feck all like that" to move out of the fecking way and make space. Not sure what it is he wouldn't do but I imagine it's related to the strong smell of piss coming from the Pimp Daddy of the pack.
- got a demand for my name and address by a copper in a patrol car because I wouldn't tell him why I was out except, whilst gesticulating to the baby in the buggy and a dog on a leash, saying "I think it's pretty self evident, officer". Asked him if I was being charged with anything that would require such information, which made him promptly drive off.
- stepped in my own dog's shite.
Overall a 9/10 experience.
Thanks for the information. I know it’s a horrendous situation for medical staff and I just hope given time eventually there will be enough supplies available to make sure they are kept safe. My mums a recently retired midwife and she’s talking about going back into hospital. I just don’t want her to go and risk her own life.
As far as I can work out the IHME modelling is hot garbage. As of 10th April (2 days more of data!) they've already revised the UK best guesstimate down to 37k. Their previous average is already beyond the current model's upper range confidence interval. I'm pretty much of the opinion that you could follow a trend line with your finger and arrive at a figure range as accurate as the one they spit out of their model.
The public also clapped for the Grenfell firefighters yet it didn't take long for those brave fighters to be blamed by the establishment. Anyone who believes that the structure of British society will radically change in the wake of the virus is completely ignorant of our history.
I'm from Iceland but lived in Sweden for 10 years and I'm absolutely stunned when talking to my friends in Sweden about their handling of the pandamic. They’re actually very pleased with the Swedish actions and response, even though other Nordic countries are doing a lot better so far.
As of now Iceland and Sweden have similar restrictions in place, but the Swedes have implemented them much later (please correct my if wrong):
The big difference in the countries response has been timing of the restrictions, for instance no visitors for the elderly dwelling was Iceland first action 6 weeks ago, but Sweden just took that measure a week ago. Now it seems the virus has hit the elderly bad in Stockholm.
Another difference is testing. In Iceland 10% of the population has been tested both suspected cases, people working in the health care and just general population (indication is around 0,5-0,8% is infected). In Sweden 0,5% has been tested according to “worldometers”.
There also seems to be shortage of PPE in the country…
Been watching some Swedish television and newspaper and there seems to be no critic of these lack of actions and that seems to reflect well in the public opinion.
Only real critic I could see was from 2000 Swedes doctors : https://www.wsws.org/en/articles/2020/04/03/swed-a03.html
Very strange situation indeed. But who knows maybe the virus will get us all in the end, so we might as well let it roam freely.
As of now Iceland and Sweden have similar restrictions in place, but the Swedes have implemented them much later (please correct my if wrong):
- 20 people gathering limit in Iceland, 50 in Sweden
- 2m distancing
- No visitors in hospitals
- No visitors in elderly dwellings
- Schools for 6-15 years open (as long as other restrictions are met)
The big difference in the countries response has been timing of the restrictions, for instance no visitors for the elderly dwelling was Iceland first action 6 weeks ago, but Sweden just took that measure a week ago. Now it seems the virus has hit the elderly bad in Stockholm.
Another difference is testing. In Iceland 10% of the population has been tested both suspected cases, people working in the health care and just general population (indication is around 0,5-0,8% is infected). In Sweden 0,5% has been tested according to “worldometers”.
There also seems to be shortage of PPE in the country…
Been watching some Swedish television and newspaper and there seems to be no critic of these lack of actions and that seems to reflect well in the public opinion.
Only real critic I could see was from 2000 Swedes doctors : https://www.wsws.org/en/articles/2020/04/03/swed-a03.html
Very strange situation indeed. But who knows maybe the virus will get us all in the end, so we might as well let it roam freely.
The British government has never been known to take scientific advise without diluting it with politics. They have previously fired scientists like David Nutt for giving scientific advise that contradicted or deviated from government policy. Many others resigned for similar reasons (e.g. Sir Simon Fraser Campbell). The government went on to add the following to their principles of scientific advise:
https://www.gov.uk/government/publi...principles-of-scientific-advice-to-government
- government and its scientific advisers should not act to undermine mutual trust
This was effectively designed so that experts give advise that aligns well with the political goals of the government.
The way their initial outrage created an immediate outcry from experts everywhere, I think it's likely the initial government decision was disproportionately underpinned by economic considerations rather than by the advise of science experts. It was so bad (blank graphs/pseudo-scientific reasoning) that I don't think it was faithfully based on any scientific advise.
what will he bring to the table?
We're so fecking weak we almost deserve to be annihilated by this virus.
Imagine how people handled WWII. Six years of struggle and we can't even manage three weeks without getting tied of it and having trouble coping.
I guess I can take comfort in the fact that no matter what the circumstances people will invariably make me sick, the pathetic fecks.
If I had remembered my wallet so could've bought milk when I was out. Other than it was a better walk than usual in my area.What would have made it a 10/10?
That’s seriously worrying because it’s almost certain that once everything goes back to normal we will have second outbreak, which could be much worse than the first one too. Enforcing second phase of lockdown would then become very difficult and even more necessary. Will governments start using force to keep people at home then? I don’t think they will, not in Europe or US.
I understand annoyance of people who lost jobs and struggle with payments but I know many who work from home with stable income yet still moan about not being able to go like this for long. From my point of view as long as I keep my job I can do this for as long as it’s needed. We are in 2020, there are many things to do at home to entertain yourself and most countries still allow you to go for a walk etc. I spend minimum 2 hours a day walking my dog in secluded areas, read books, play video games, watch Netflix and work 8-10 hours a day while pocketing good income with decreased monthly costs (even loans have gone down significantly as rates were decreased so for example my car payments are now 2% cheaper). Really I think billions around the world have much tougher life even under normal circumstances. As I said, there are millions of people now across Europe who can rightly be concerned about their jobs and sustainability of living their normal life, they have valid reasons for concern. Not being able to go to a pub or watch football isn’t a real concern.
A pen, Sunak will provide the blank cheque.
Confirmation
Expectedly a lot of people out today. I saw a convoy of about 20 dog walkers on my street.
Expectedly a lot of people out today. I saw a convoy of about 20 dog walkers on my street.
I've seen the figure 70% accuracy branded about on a couple of sites, but I'm not sure how much data that figures using to get that result. I had a private test done a couple of weeks ago after my flatmate and I came down with bad symptoms, I had to mail the sample and it took them about a week to receive and actually test the sample, by which point who knows what the state of the sample was like.
What if that is what is needed? I suspect the world needs to lock down significantly for at least 6 months and then to at least some degree until we have a vaccine. Life won't return to normal for up to 3 or 4 years imo.
It just won't be obeyed. It's bad enough that we're getting summer weather at the beginning of April, not a cloud in the sky here today and I live 5 minutes from the beach. Very few walkers there so far today but try enforcing that throughout months of sunshine in June, July and August.
Not gonna happen.
Here's what you've said:
It was an extreme position to believe that 6 months of lockdown was the absolute minimum, and new evidence demonstrated that. Then it was an extreme position that lockdowns wouldn't stop in the next two months, and likely wouldn't stop until vaccine is here. New evidence again demonstrated that, just a couple of days after you said it.
You don't need to say it again and again. You hold an extreme position, you're not the voice of reason swimming in a tide of denial.
There were plenty of experts in other countries that had a similar view to the experts in the UK. The outrage seemed more directed at the out of context quotes from Boris that we we‘re going to effectively have a giant pox party to deal with the issue.
Thats not to say that the government haven’t made mistakes but I suspect the core reasons as to why some countries have done better than others will be a lot more complex than the narratives going round on here at the moment.
Regarding demographics for instance, the most populous countries in Europe are
1. Germany 84m
2. UK 68m
3. France 65m
4. Italy 60m
5. Spain 47m
The next most populous western/southern nation is Holland with 17m.
Apart from Germany the worst hit nations are the most populous in Europe. The interesting thing about Germany is that they have 16 federal states within the country that have a lot more autonomy than regions in the UK (not sure about the other nations mentioned), so their response more like a series of smaller nations managing smaller populations as opposed to the Westminster ‘blob’ trying to to coordinate a large country (by European standards). England is also the mostly densely populated or crowded country in Europe which could prove to be another natural disadvantage.
Another seeming outlier in the narrative on here is Belgium. I believe they shutdown really early but have one of the worst deaths per million population rate in the world.
These are just ideas from my own observations but my point is that I feel the final picture will be a lot different to what people are estimating it to be be now.
I think you have to view those numbers within the context of what's (not) going on in Germany. What people here read and see is (compared to other countries) low death rate and great testing capacity, you have interactive maps where you can check that hospital load around you is still fine (https://interaktiv.morgenpost.de/corona-deutschland-intensiv-betten-monitor-krankenhaus-auslastung/) and reports which claim it could be vastly increased if need be.
It's all very reassuring and I kind of experience the trend suggested by the study myself. I mean I still keep my (social) distance, I don't meet friends and leave it to the experts to tell me when it's appropriate to lift the shutdown, I understand things could escalate fast if it's done too quickly. But the panic, the immediate fear of the virus, has largely disappeared for now.
Last edited: