SARS CoV-2 coronavirus / Covid-19 (No tin foil hat silliness please)

[Smores]

The UK barely has a border force at airports these days. I'm not even sure we could have screened all the flights if we even wanted to.

What should have happened is that by Feb we should have either stopped all flights from China or quarantined those arriving. Would probably have still been futile though.

 

[oates]

The entire world was unprepared, regardless of whether china downplayed the situation back in jan or not. Even during the worst of the outbreak, most governments were still touch and go with their decisions. Personally I think this has been a valuable learning experience, so that we are well prepared for something even nastier like ebola or another SARS.

However I have only contended that efforts have been made by various countries and during varying periods before March.

Perhaps @Drawfull can see how he and others like yourself reading something has themselves attempted to move the goalposts.


Edit. Personally I'm seeing little value in all of this myself so far.

 

[horsechoker]

Close to 800 more new cases today than yesterday in Italy which is disappointing however deaths decreased from 604 yesterday to 542 and 2099 people have recovered or been discharged which is the highest number in a single day for Italy.

I think Italy is still at the peak but hopefully the decline is not far off.

 

[justboy68]

Actually I was more interested in sources on this -

Apologies if I was misrepresenting your position. I've not been reading each post in full detail, perhaps I got the wrong impression. Nonetheless, most efforts made were fairly shambolic and I think the WHO also failed miserably in warning countries appropriately.

As my location here shows I've obviously been dealing with this virus since mid January and it made me want to pull my hair out everyday seeing how complacent Europe and America were being. It seemed quite clear every step of the way how it was going to break out if more serious measures weren't taken sooner. I kept trying to warn my family back home as well, as they were planning a holiday in early March, but it fell mostly on deaf ears.

Now it's frustrating when you see politicians trying to absolve themselves of blame. Frustrating, but not unexpected of course.

 

[Revan]

If this is true, then it's more or less all over boys and girls. We've basically run into the 'big one', the one that wipes out the human race.

A bit of exaggeration there.

It still has a small fatality rate. The study also say some people have low antibody (not all people), and it doesn't do much more analysis (like how sick were them in the first place). We also do not know if the second infection will be as bad as the first one, worst than the first one, or same as the first one. Then there will be some treatment found, be it vaccine or drugs. Heck, even dengue fever has some experimental vaccine, if this shows to behave similarly (make you even sicker the second time, or even as sick), then there will be tens of billions of dollars put in the research to find something.

It will have disastous consequences, no doubt there, but it should also serve as a wakeup call to the human race. A virus that doesn't give you symptoms for a week (like this) but then is much more lethal than this can destroy the entire civilization (not the human race though), and countries should get prepared for that. Much better to put money on that than on military.

 

[Cal?]

The entire world was unprepared, regardless of whether china downplayed the situation back in jan or not. Even during the worst of the outbreak, most governments were still touch and go with their decisions. Personally I think this has been a valuable learning experience, so that we are well prepared for something even nastier like ebola or another SARS.

Well, Hong Kong is very well prepared since SARS, despite the incompetence of the HK government, most people are doing their own thing and it's relatively contained.

 

[mu4c_20le]

However I have only contended that efforts have been made by various countries and during varying periods before March.

Perhaps @Drawfull can see how he and others like yourself reading something has themselves attempted to move the goalposts.


Edit. Personally I'm seeing little value in all of this myself so far.

This was a fire drill, and most of the western world either tripped over themselves or argued amongst each other whether to escape or lock themselves inside for safety. I expect that, knock on wood, should there be a next time, the world would do much better.

 

[oates]

Now it's frustrating when you see politicians trying to absolve themselves of blame. Frustrating, but not unexpected of course.

I've not used the word blame myself but yes, it's natural for politicians to avoid any responsibility. However some have been wrongly advised ad I can imagine that being the case in the UK with a desire to maintain the economy uppermost in some minds originally.

 

[mu4c_20le]

Well, Hong Kong is very well prepared since SARS, despite the incompetence of the HK government, most people are doing their own thing and it's relatively contained.

Yeah i was actually just thinking about that after i hit post, maybe not the entire world, i should give some credit

 

[oates]

This was a fire drill, and most of the western world either tripped over themselves or argued amongst each other whether to escape or lock themselves inside for safety. I expect that, knock on wood, should there be a next time, the world would do much better.

I find it hard to assign it a Fire Drill when Ice Rinks are being used for morgues and relatives will never see their family members funerals. For some people they find it easier to analyse.

 

[Sandikan]

I know in the grand scheme of things this is very small, but I just came back from my bike ride and I go past shops, post offices, etc. And you see people lining up outside, 6ft apart, most wearing gloves and masks and it just makes you think how fecking crazy this all is. How much the world has changed in a matter of weeks. Again, I know there's obviously way more important and awful things going on than people queuing outside of shops, but I'm saying it more in the sense of how fast people's behaviors have changed.

Just mental to think when we were all celebrating the new year and welcoming in a new decade, that in merely a few month's time the world would be completely changed. Crazy times.

It's an utterly insane change.
A month ago I was on a 4 day work trip up north. Now a lot of us aren't even allowed to go to work, or even out the house more than once a day!
It'll (hopefully) be something future generations find hard to believe, like we do with the war stories.

 

[Sassy Colin]

Nearly 1,000 new casualties in the UK today.

I guess I should go for a walk now before they stop even that. If anyone is wondering, it is a very quiet area where I live and people are very conscious to stay apart. Also, I haven't been out since yesterday.

 

[justboy68]

Well, Hong Kong is very well prepared since SARS, despite the incompetence of the HK government, most people are doing their own thing and it's relatively contained.

This is a good point too. Government preparation for a future pandemic could easily go either way, but hopefully we should see more awareness and understanding from the public should something like this happen again. Hong Kong being a prime example.

 

[horsechoker]

Nearly 1,000 new casualties in the UK today.

I guess I should go for a walk now before they stop even that. If anyone is wondering, it is a very quiet area where I live and people are very conscious to stay apart. Also, I haven't been out since yesterday.

They sound affluent and like minded


With all seriousness I think further restrictions will happen, you'll probably have to wear facemask and only go for a walk 100 or 200m from your house

 

[BusbyMalone]

How likely is it that the US goes into a nationwide lockdown? Was reading an opinion piece that was saying that a nationwide lockdown isn't likely and also not the solution, while Fauci is saying he can't believe it hasn't already happened.

 

[Cal?]

This is a good point too. Government preparation for a future pandemic could easily go either way, but hopefully we should see more awareness and understanding from the public should something like this happen again. Hong Kong being a prime example.

On the other hand, Taiwan has dealt with it really well, the government banned travel from China, made sure everyone had enough face masks and contained the spread.

Even the schools are still open.

 

[mu4c_20le]

On the other hand, Taiwan has dealt with it really well, the government banned travel from China, made sure everyone had enough face masks and contained the spread.

And phone tracking. All foreigners entering the country are basically subjected to house arrest for 14 days. It's not a request.

 

[Mr Pigeon]

I guess I should go for a walk now before they stop even that. If anyone is wondering, it is a very quiet area where I live and people are very conscious to stay apart. Also, I haven't been out since yesterday.

Not good enough. Wrap yourself in plastic bags.

 

[Sassy Colin]

They sound affluent and like minded


With all seriousness I think further restrictions will happen, you'll probably have to wear facemask and only go for a walk 100 or 200m from your house

Affluent yes, like minded, no.

 

[sammsky1]

Countries might recognise it's not a good idea to outsource their entire supply chain for a start.

As you've lived there, you'll know China has been building itself into a dominant global power since 30+ years ago, to the point where it now has the world by the balls: geo-politically, economically, militarily.
If USA or EU wants to aggressively respond, it will take time and require accepting a lower living standard. And they will most likely lose. Again, am sure you know this.
Good luck untangling that in a hurry.

 

[Shakesy]

On the other hand, Taiwan has dealt with it really well, the government banned travel from China, made sure everyone had enough face masks and contained the spread.

Even the schools are still open.

The schools closed for about a month. And kids now go to school wearing face masks. They did do well though.

 

[redshaw]

There were other people tweeting about arriving from Italy at the time of their lockdown (March) at a London airport and there was absolutely nothing. This is after the whole of Feb when all the cases trickling in I read about had come back from Italy. Think I read the first 15 cases in Ireland had Italian connection.

Not sure how many more flights we have than Asian countries like Taiwan and SK but Taiwan test at the airport. I would've expected this at a minimum as it's people bringing it to the UK. We only found out about these infected when they got worse and were free to do whatever beforehand.

Then you've got the EU and Merkel saying no use closing the borders and then when it's too late all the borders are closed

 

[Revan]

Jack Dorsey (CEO of Twitter) donating 1 billion dollars for Covid-19 charities. That is around 30% of his total net worth.

 

[sammsky1]

This was a fire drill, and most of the western world either tripped over themselves or argued amongst each other whether to escape or lock themselves inside for safety. I expect that, knock on wood, should there be a next time, the world would do much better.

very good analogy.

Reading the recent Reuters investigative report, seems like UK was following a flu epidemic protocol for a while, denying covid19 even existed!

 

[oates]

very good analogy.

Reading the recent Reuters investigative report, seems like UK was following a flu epidemic protocol for a while, denying covid19 even existed!

Link please!

 

[sammsky1]

Link please!

@esmufc07 Elvis shared last night

 

[FireballXL5]

Apologies if this has been posted already. Grim reading...

https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/coro...toll-says-study/ar-BB12jp4M?OCID=ansmsnnews11

 

[oates]

@esmufc07 Elvis shared last night

And from this -

That limited approach mirrored the UK’s longstanding pandemic flu strategy. The Department of Health declined a request from Reuters for a copy of its updated pandemic plan, without providing a reason. But a copy of the 2011 “UK Influenza Pandemic Preparedness Strategy 2011,” which a spokesman said was still relevant, stated the “working presumption will be that Government will not impose any such restrictions. The emphasis will instead be on encouraging all those who have symptoms to follow the advice to stay at home and avoid spreading their illness.”

According to one senior Conservative Party politician, who was officially briefed as the crisis unfolded, the close involvement in the response to the coronavirus of the same scientific advisers and civil servants who drew up the flu plan may have created a “cognitive bias.”

“We had in our minds that COVID-19 was a nasty flu and needed to be treated as such,” he said. “The implication was it was a disease that could not be stopped and that it was ultimately not that deadly.”

While the UK was prepared to fight the flu, Asian states like China, Hong Kong, Singapore and South Korea had built their pandemic plans with lessons learned from fighting the more lethal SARS outbreak that began in 2002, he said. SARS had a fatality rate of up to 14%. As a result, these countries, he said, were more ready to resort to widespread testing, lockdowns and other draconian measures to keep their citizens from spreading the virus.

Scientists involved in the UK response disagree that following the government’s flu plan clouded their thinking or influenced the outbreak’s course. The plan had a “reasonable worst case” scenario as devastating as the worst predictions for COVID-19, they note.

This was at the point following all advice up to 21 January so you decide to post -

Reading the recent Reuters investigative report, seems like UK was following a flu epidemic protocol for a while, denying covid19 even existed!

I think it should be fair to say that not many Governments have been in full possession of the facts or necessarily received the same advice during this long period up until the UK Government has reached this point.

 

[finneh]

I was talking about the compensatory scheme you referred to in your next sentence, which you said would have led to the majority of businesses temporarily shutting down of their own volition.

We can agree that if they provided more compensation direct to businesses at that time, it would have encouraged more businesses to close. But rather than debate how many more would have closed within this hypothetical scenario, let's just stick with the imperfect evidence we have.

Does the evidence support your view?

Does the evidence support that if an imaginary scheme that's never been discussed, announced, quantified or analysed were implemented, what would be the uptake?

I love to pontificate but that's a step too far even for me. Let's just say if the scheme were paying businesses twice their turnover for the same period last year (or for Jan-Feb for new businesses) provided they continue to pay all staff, suppliers and fixed costs, the uptake would be almost 100%. If the scheme were paying £10 and a packet of fags then the proportion would be similar to the levels of closure for current businesses that are allowed to stay open (E.g. Construction which for our 60 sites only 9 are open) . However the reduction in customers would close a large proportion without any government intervention at all. The businesses that remained open would change their practices to attract custom (the vast, vast majority of people aren't going to shop where 40 people are packed together 5 inches apart), just as construction sites that have remained open are doing.

So overall I'd say yes the small anecdotal evidence supports my view. Construction sites that are encouraged to stay open by government from the evidence I've got have shown 85% closures with zero government support and the 15% of sites that remain open have implemented measures similar to pharmacies etc (far better than public transport I might add). With any proper government support (even something as simple as saying late completion penalty clauses can't be activated by clients) I've no doubt that it would be 95+%. With a good scheme it would be as close to 100% as it currently is.

 

[Wibble]

FFS. This is dengue fever like.

Although low antobody levels isn't why Dengue reinfections can be more severe.

 

[Revan]

Although low antobody levels isn't why Dengue reinfections can be more severe.

Yep, you're right. It is one of the reason (not being able to fight the virus), but not the main one (the antibodies being fooled by the virus and allowing it to get in the system).

 

[Brwned]

Does the evidence support that if an imaginary scheme that's never been discussed, announced, quantified or analysed were implemented, what would be the uptake?

I love to pontificate but that's a step too far even for me. Let's just say if the scheme were paying businesses twice their turnover for the same period last year (or for Jan-Feb for new businesses) provided they continue to pay all staff, suppliers and fixed costs, the uptake would be almost 100%. If the scheme were paying £10 and a packet of fags then the proportion would be similar to the levels of closure for current businesses that are allowed to stay open (E.g. Construction which for our 60 sites only 9 are open) . However the reduction in customers would close a large proportion without any government intervention at all. The businesses that remained open would change their practices to attract custom (the vast, vast majority of people aren't going to shop where 40 people are packed together 5 inches apart), just as construction sites that have remained open are doing.

So overall I'd say yes the small anecdotal evidence supports my view. Construction sites that are encouraged to stay open by government from the evidence I've got have shown 85% closures with zero government support and the 15% of sites that remain open have implemented measures similar to pharmacies etc (far better than public transport I might add). With any proper government support (even something as simple as saying late completion penalty clauses can't be activated by clients) I've no doubt that it would be 95+%. With a good scheme it would be as close to 100% as it currently is.

There's been some misunderstanding here. I'm asking does this statement fit reality:

The common sense of the populace would have lead to huge reductions in their businesses and policies such as the 80% furlough payments would have lead to them temporarily shutting down of their own volition.

Did the common sense of the populace lead to huge reductions in business which, supported by policies such as 80% furlough payments, lead to the majority of businesses temporarily shutting down of their own volition? It's not a hypothetical.

 

[2cents]

 

[2cents]

 

[JMack1234]

Perfect beer garden weather today

 

[Revan]

@Fener1907 might be on something here. This is like a month before the whistleblower in China, and if the US knew about it on November, then China would have known it even earlier and the virus would have been spreading since October or so.

 

[Revan]

Why the UK and France are doing so few testings? Are they stupid or only negligent?

For comparison, Canada with less than half of their population has done quite more testings, while Norway has done half as many testings (but it has 5 million, instead of 65 million people).

It is totally inexcusable and a big failure of France/UK governments.

 

[Sky1981]

@Fener1907 might be on something here. This is like a month before the whistleblower in China, and if the US knew about it on November, then China would have known it even earlier and the virus would have been spreading since October or so.

The fact (which is very easily proven) is that the total incubation period are 3-4 weeks max. You'd either showing symptoms, fallen sick, feels nothing at all, or simply died.

Let's put aside who's who for the moment. When does UK/US first death? If it's January then yes, it's on China. If it's beyond January then UK/US cant blame china.

Besides, think about it for a second. How the feck does the US can know about the virus as early as November? They'd either have something to do about it or they have some sort of super spy that sees everything (and yet they claim to be blindsided totally by China).

Virus like this isn't visible. It's easy for us to look back in a hindsight when the bodies start piling up, but back then it was a case of 10 people suddenly fall sick. But somehow the US has a full intel long before 1st death?

The report was the result of analysis of wire and computer intercepts, coupled with satellite images. It raised alarms because an out-of-control disease would pose a serious threat to U.S. forces in Asia -- forces that depend on the NCMI’s work. And it paints a picture of an American government that could have ramped up mitigation and containment efforts far earlier to prepare for a crisis poised to come home.

The above is from the ABC links. So they're saying they can see from satellite that there's a virus outbreak, yet there's tourist people all over Wuhan didn't see anything. How does that makes sense? if we're talking about nuclear facilities then satellite images make sense, but satellite images long even before first casualty of a virus??? seriously???

To come up with a conclusion that there's a virus outbreak from satellite images as early as November would mean they see total chaos, people start dying on the street, ambulance everywhere, things that local TV could easily pick up as well. They should just release the footage if there is.

 

[Kentonio]

The fact (which is very easily proven) is that the total incubation period are 3-4 weeks max. You'd either showing symptoms, fallen sick, feels nothing at all, or simply died.

Let's put aside who's who for the moment. When does UK/US first death? If it's January then yes, it's on China. If it's beyond January then UK/US cant blame china.

Besides, think about it for a second. How the feck does the US can know about the virus as early as November? They'd either have something to do about it or they have some sort of super spy that sees everything (and yet they claim to be blindsided totally by China).

Virus like this isn't visible. It's easy for us to look back in a hindsight when the bodies start piling up, but back then it was a case of 10 people suddenly fall sick. But somehow the US has a full intel long before 1st death?

US intelligence could well have known IF China knew that early, and they were intercepting information direct from them.

 

[Revan]

Fair enough, it will be interesting to see how Iceland develops.

On the highlighted quote, I don't think that's necessarily quite true anymore - but it might just depend on each German state. Just based on an anecdote - a friend of mine was randomly tested just the weekend gone after one of her colleagues was a confirmed case. Though she's staying in a fairly small town (Naumburg).

UAE is another good one, whom have been doing near as much testings per capita as Iceland, and much more in total. In fact, they have tested more people than the UK and France combined.

So far, they have 12 deaths from 2659 cases, with a ratio of 0.45% (in total around 600k testings, with around 60k testings per 1 million people).

On the other side, Luxembourg has a much worse ratio (they have the third-highest testing per capita) at around 1.5%.

For me, Singapore is the most interesting one. They have done a decent number of tests, a bit like Germany, Italy or Israel. However, unlike those countries, their death rate is much lower, at only 0.37%. And they have been hit earlier, so you would expect that they don't have too many critical cases which will increase the ratio.

I know feck all about these things, but it would be interesting to see some studies that try to do a comparison between different strains versions of the virus (of course, adjusted to the population and number of testing). Could it be that the Asian strains are less lethal than the European ones?